热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月12日，隔夜市场伦敦现货黄金震荡走高，COMEX黄金期货涨2.01%，SHFE黄金涨1.24%，同时现 货白银刷新历史高点。美联储降息靴子落地，同时重启短债购买计划（储备管理购买RMP）补充储备 金至充足水平，宏观情绪明显好转，短期黄金震荡偏强对待。 美联储降息靴子落地，有媒体报导，华尔街普遍认为，美联储12月会议虽流露鹰派信号，如内部罕见分 歧、强调数据依赖，但并未动摇其宽松基调。美联储为呵护金融市场流动性购买短债的动作以及缩表结 束扩表预期开始成为推动金价昨晚快速反弹的诱因，审慎乐观看待。就业数据方面，美国上周首申人数 增4.4万人，创2020年来最大增幅，续请人数骤降至8个月低点，下周关注12月16日将公布的11月非农就 业报告，报告将包含10月的非农就业人数。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观 点、结论和建议仅供 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international gold prices are expected to continue rebounding due to a combination of factors including a recent decline in the US dollar index and the Federal Reserve's third consecutive interest rate cut this year, which has led to market expectations of further easing [2] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates that most members anticipate at least a 25 basis point cut in the future, with only a few believing that rates should remain unchanged until 2026, suggesting a dovish outlook that could support gold prices [2] - Market participants are advised to focus on upcoming economic data, such as initial jobless claims and wholesale sales, which are expected to be favorable for gold prices, reinforcing the bullish sentiment [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has shown a strong upward trend, with expectations of reaching levels around 4265 to 4285 in the near term, despite some potential for short-term pullbacks [3] - The domestic gold market has mirrored international trends, with significant gains observed in contracts like the Shanghai gold (2606 contract), which reached a high of 971, and the accumulation gold reaching 959, following previous buy recommendations [3] - The overall trading strategy remains bullish, but caution is advised as the market may enter a consolidation phase, suggesting that traders should avoid chasing further upward movements for now [3]

张尧浠：美降息落地仍存宽松前景、金价反弹多头动力加强 上交易日周三(12月10日)：国际黄金触底回升收阳，再度收线在短期均线上方，多头力量加强，暗示后市仍有继续反弹的动力，再度上探4260美元附近阻 力。突破则有望触及4340美元或更高位置。反之继续遇阻则有维持当下的震荡区间波动继续调整走盘。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4207.69美元/盎司，先行盘整后转回落，到欧盘及美盘大部分时段，又处于4188-4205美元区间内震荡，一直到凌晨3点时段 开盘，金价走低触及日内低点4181.85美元，迅速反弹回升收复日内跌幅，录得日内高点4238.49美元，最终有所回撤，收于4228.35美元，日振幅56.64美 元，收涨20.66美元，涨幅0.49%。 影响上，日内在美联储利率决议公布前延续近日的震荡区间表现观望，一直到周四凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，虽然一度卖事实走低录得日内低点； 但由于又表示会在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债(变相放水)，以及鲍威尔虽未就近期是否再次降息提供明确指引，但表示"不包含未来加息"情景，被市 场解读为存在明年1月进一步降息的可能；再加上特朗普批评鲍威尔：降息幅度太小，可以翻倍，应 ...

Core Viewpoint - Typhoon "Phoenix" is approaching China's southeastern coast, expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds from November 11 to 13, particularly affecting Zhejiang, Fujian, and Taiwan [2][6]. Weather Impact - The typhoon will enhance rainfall in eastern Guangdong to Fujian and Zhejiang, with the most extensive rain expected on November 12, leading to heavy to torrential rain in parts of Zhejiang and southwestern Taiwan [3][9]. - Strong winds are anticipated in eastern and southern coastal areas, with wind speeds reaching 9 to 11 levels and gusts up to 14 levels in the vicinity of the typhoon's center [6]. Emergency Response - Over 5.5 million people have been evacuated in Fujian Province, and all fishing vessels in the region have returned to port [7][11]. - Fujian's emergency response to the typhoon has been elevated to Level II, with 69 passenger ferry routes suspended and 180 passenger ferries halted [13][14][16]. Safety Measures - The Fujian Maritime Safety Administration has deployed emergency response resources, including patrol boats and rescue helicopters, to ensure rapid response to any maritime incidents [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to three copper mine incidents globally this year, the supply-demand gap for copper is expected to widen by 2026, indicating significant upward potential for copper prices [1] - Morgan Stanley identifies Zijin Mining as the best choice in the sector, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% for copper production and 7.3% for gold production from 2025 to 2028 [1] - The company has effective cost control measures, utilizing advanced autonomous geological exploration technology and self-developed equipment, resulting in average mining costs significantly lower than industry levels [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage on Zijin Mining with a target price of HKD 46.1 for H-shares and CNY 42.2 for A-shares, both rated as "Buy" [1] - The firm anticipates an increase in copper prices in 2025 and 2026, while gold prices may rebound after recent adjustments, with a forecast of reaching USD 4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen a significant increase in holdings, reaching 954.8 tons, with a notable rise of 7.74 tons in a single trading day, indicating strong investor interest in gold amid economic uncertainties [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 22, the total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust stand at 954.8 tons, reflecting a substantial increase of 7.74 tons from the previous trading day [6]. - Over the past two trading days, the cumulative increase in gold ETF holdings has exceeded 10 tons, highlighting a growing trend in gold investment [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On July 22, spot gold prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, reaching a peak of $3433.53 per ounce, the highest since June 16, and closing at $3431.66 per ounce, up $34.73 or 1.02% [6]. - The price of gold is currently above all major simple moving averages (SMA), with the 14-day relative strength index remaining firmly above the midpoint, indicating a bullish trend [7]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Gold - The decline of the US dollar index has been a significant driver for the rebound in gold prices, influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade agreements between the US and other economies such as Japan and the EU [6]. - Concerns over the US economic growth outlook, exacerbated by tariff uncertainties, have led investors to seek refuge in gold, further supporting its price [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Following a strong breakout above the $3400 mark, gold prices are expected to target static resistance at around $3440, with a potential move towards the historical high of $3500 [8]. - Should there be a correction, gold may test the $3377 level, with support likely found around the $3330 area, which coincides with the 21-day and 50-day moving averages [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of risk aversion on gold prices and questions the sustainability of short-term rebounds in the market [1] Group 1 - Risk aversion is currently supporting gold prices, indicating a potential increase in demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The article suggests that the short-term rebound in gold prices may face challenges in maintaining momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant rebound, increasing by over $40, indicating potential further upward movement if certain resistance levels are breached [1] Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices suggests a strong market reaction, with a focus on key resistance levels that could dictate future price movements [1] - Analysts are monitoring specific thresholds that, if surpassed, may open up additional space for price recovery in the gold market [1]

Core Insights - The absence of President Putin from discussions has been identified as a significant factor influencing gold prices, leading to a nearly $100 increase from the day's low [1] Group 1 - Gold prices have experienced a substantial rebound, raising questions about whether this increase is a temporary trap or a genuine turning point for the market [1]