Report Information - Report Name: Information Morning Report - Release Date: November 21, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and the performance of various financial markets including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides information on upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: US WTI crude oil was at $58.76 per barrel, Brent crude futures fell 0.63% to $63.11 per barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures dropped 0.15% to $4076.7 per ounce, COMEX silver futures declined 0.98% to $50.355 per ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: LME nickel, copper, and lead fell, while zinc, tin, and aluminum rose [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: Fuel oil, asphalt, rubber, and 20 - number rubber rose, while pulp, palm oil, and glass fell [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - **Monetary Policy**: China's central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for six consecutive months [9]. - **Gold Exchange**: Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of market instability and asked members to take risk - control measures [9]. - **Trade and Economy**: China is implementing the consensus of the China - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations. The source of the global semiconductor supply chain chaos is in the Netherlands [9][12]. - **Stock Market Policy**: The CSRC will strengthen system construction, risk prevention, and investor protection [10]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: Morgan Stanley no longer expects a Fed rate cut in December, now forecasting three cuts in January, April, and June next year [10]. - **International Politics**: Ukraine's President Zelensky agreed to work on a peace plan, and Iran's military raised its combat readiness [12][13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Soda Ash**: Total domestic soda ash inventory decreased by 3.68% to 164.44 million tons as of November 20 [14]. - **Pulp**: China's pulp port inventory rose 3.0% to 217.3 million tons [16]. - **Methanol**: East China port methanol inventory decreased by 1.57 million tons, and China's methanol production increased [17][18]. - **Fuel Oil and Distillates**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped, while middle and light distillate inventories rose [17]. - **Float Glass**: National float glass inventory increased slightly, production hit a four - month low, and production profits declined [17][18]. Metal Futures - **Alumina and Aluminum**: Alumina inventory increased, and global and Chinese aluminum production data were reported [22]. - **Other Metals**: There were supply - demand imbalances in refined lead, nickel, and copper. China's imports of lithium carbonate and alumina changed [22]. - **Lithium Price**: BMI expects higher average prices for lithium carbonate and hydroxide in China in 2025 [23]. - **Futures Policy**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees for lithium carbonate futures [23][24]. Agricultural Futures - **Pork**: The central reserve of frozen pork will have an auction of 6500 tons [28]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased, and China's palm oil import costs rose [29][30][32]. - **Soybeans and Wheat**: US private exporters reported sales of soybeans and wheat to China [33]. - **Sugarcane**: Thailand expects its 2025/26 sugarcane crushing volume to exceed 93 million tons [34]. - **Tariffs**: Trump modified tariffs on some Brazilian agricultural products [34]. Financial Markets Stocks - **A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, with solid - state battery and photovoltaic concept stocks dropping, and banks rising [36]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.58% [38]. - **IPO**: Moore Threads' IPO price was set at 114.28 yuan per share [39]. - **Corporate News**: NetEase's Q3 net income increased 8.2% [40]. Industries - **Digital Economy**: Guangdong aims to have the digital economy core industry's added - value account for over 16% of GDP by 2027 [41]. - **Battery Industry**: The battery industry is promoting anti - cut - throat competition [43]. - **Semiconductor**: China's chip design industry is expected to grow 29.4% in 2025 [43]. - **Salt Lake**: Qinghai will strengthen salt lake resource management [43]. - **Mobile Phones**: China's mobile phone shipments in September increased 10.1% year - on - year [44]. Overseas Markets - **US Economy**: US September non - farm payrolls increased, but unemployment rose. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is low [45]. - **US Policy**: Trump may delay semiconductor tariffs and will launch an AI plan [45]. - **US Real Estate**: US existing home sales in October increased 1.2% [46]. International Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: The three major US stock indexes fell, with Cisco and Boeing leading the decline [48]. - **European Stocks**: European stock indexes rose, driven by risk sentiment and corporate profit expectations [48]. - **Investment Advice**: It's not a good time to short large - cap tech stocks, and the S&P 500 is expected to rise [48][49]. - **Stock Exchange**: Singapore and Nasdaq will launch a "Global Listing Board" in mid - 2026 [49]. - **Corporate Earnings**: Walmart's Q3 revenue increased, and it will move its listing to Nasdaq [49]. Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees for lithium carbonate futures [51]. - **Precious Metals**: International precious metals futures fell due to a stronger dollar and reduced rate - cut expectations [52]. - **Oil Warning**: Saudi Aramco warned of future oil supply shortages [52]. Bonds - **Domestic Bonds**: The domestic bond market was volatile, and the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [54]. - **Central Bank Bills**: The central bank will issue 45 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on November 24 [54]. - **US Bonds**: US Treasury yields fell across the board [54]. Foreign Exchange - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the RMB's global payment ranking was sixth in October [55][56]. - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [56]. - **Yen**: The yen against the dollar reached its weakest level since January, and the Japanese government expressed concern [58]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: A series of economic data such as Japan's CPI, UK's retail sales, and US PMI are to be released [60]. - **Events**: Fed, ECB, and other central bank officials will make speeches, and there are important conferences and exhibitions [62].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/11/12 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 美油主力合约收涨 1.51%，报 61.04 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 1.7%， 报 65.15 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.27%报 4133.20 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.52 ...

Core Insights - The global asset bull market narrative since 2025 has reached a critical juncture in October [1] - Despite significant year-to-date gains in silver (64.73%) and gold (52.53%), October revealed market fragility with declines in major indices [2] - The divergence in performance between US and Asian markets highlights a stark contrast, with US indices reaching new highs while Asian markets, particularly Hong Kong and Chinese stocks, faced significant pullbacks [3][4] Market Performance - US stock markets showed strong performance in October, with the Nasdaq index rising 4.70% to close at 23,724.96 points, and the S&P 500 index increasing by 2.27% to 6,840.20 points [3][6] - In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.53% to 25,906.65 points, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropped by 4.19% [3][6] - The A-share market also exhibited mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.85% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.10% [3][6] Precious Metals - The precious metals market experienced volatility, with silver peaking at $54.142 per ounce before retreating to $48.85, while gold reached $4,355.685 before falling to $4,018.52 [7][8] - Year-to-date performance for gold and silver remains strong, with gold up 52.53% and silver up 68.44% [8] Energy and Currency - The US dollar index strengthened in October, rising from 97.82 to 99.73, which exerted pressure on dollar-denominated assets [9] - Oil prices faced downward pressure, with WTI crude oil falling 2.23% to $60.98 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.91% to $64.77 per barrel [9] Market Dynamics - The October pullback in Chinese stocks is attributed to multiple pressures, including increased IPO activity and ongoing US-China trade tensions, leading to reduced risk appetite [10] - The divergence in performance is also linked to the relative strength of the US economy and the liquidity environment, which continues to support US equities [11] Future Outlook - The medium-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - The performance of US stocks is heavily reliant on large technology companies, which have shown strong earnings growth and market dominance [12] - Concerns about potential valuation bubbles in the tech sector are emerging, particularly regarding AI investments, which could impact future market stability [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and future economic data release schedules. It provides information on various sectors including commodities, finance, and industries, offering insights for potential investment decisions. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.06% at $4013.40 per ounce, down 3.01% for the week and up 3.62% in October; COMEX silver futures down 0.75% at $48.25 per ounce, down 0.69% for the week and up 3.45% in October [5] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil futures had mixed results, with U.S. oil up 0.51% at $60.88 per barrel, down 1.01% for the week and down 1.64% in October; Brent crude up 0.33% at $64.58 per barrel, down 0.95% for the week and down 1.15% in October [6] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME tin up 1.08% at $36180.00 per ton, up 1.06% for the week; LME aluminum up 0.86% at $2888.00 per ton, up 1.01% for the week; etc. [6] - As of the close on October 31 at 23:00, domestic futures contracts showed mixed results, with low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) and rapeseed meal up over 1%, and soda ash, BR rubber, methanol down over 2% [8] Important Information Macro - Information - China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [10] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the China - U.S. trade agreement could be signed as early as next week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson mentioned cooperation discussions during the leaders' meeting [10] - Shanghai export container freight indices showed an increase as of October 31 [10] - China's National Development and Reform Commission emphasized boosting consumer spending during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [10] - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Li Qiang focused on deepening key - area reforms and opening up [11] - Some Fed officials opposed further interest - rate cuts in December [13] - China Futures Association issued the "Rules for the Management of Futures Market - Making Transactions" [13] - U.S. may provide long - range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine [13] - Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the APEC meeting and announced the hosting of the 33rd APEC leaders' meeting in Shenzhen next year [14] - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Canadian officials to discuss economic and trade relations [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - Thailand's natural rubber exports in the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 8% year - on - year, with different trends for different types of rubber; exports to China increased by 6% [17] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cancelled the designated p - xylene delivery warehouse qualification of Jiangsu Sanfangxiang International Storage Co., Ltd. [18] - U.S. President Trump denied plans to strike military targets in Venezuela [19] - Some OPEC + members may agree to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but a suspension of production increase is also possible [19] Metal Futures - China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed setting a production ceiling for copper, lead, zinc, etc. [21] - Last week, copper inventory increased by 11,348 tons, aluminum inventory decreased by 4,594 tons, etc. in Shanghai Futures Exchange [22] - As of October 31, the market average price of polysilicon was 50 yuan per kilogram, with a profit of 10.4 yuan per kilogram [23] - Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to reach $4500 per ounce by mid - 2026 [25] - New tax policies for gold were announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration [25] Black - Series Futures - As of October 27, national power plants had 220 million tons of coal in storage, and underground gas storage completed injection tasks [27] - Tangshan lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response [27] - The steel industry PMI in October was 49.2%, up 1.5 percentage points month - on - month [27] - China's steel production in the first three quarters decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and is expected to continue to decline for the whole year [29] - Iron ore inventories at ports increased, and blast furnace operating rates decreased [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November at $963.75 per ton, with export taxes unchanged [31] - A hearing on the anti - dumping case of pork and pork by - products was held [31] - Dalian Commodity Exchange will list soybean meal and corn options contracts starting from February 2, 2026 [32] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% in the week ending October 26 [33] - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in October [35][36] - Pig - raising profits improved but still showed losses [35] Financial Market Finance - After the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points, A - share markets adjusted last week. Institutions suggest investors focus on low - valued and undervalued sectors [38] - As of October 31, domestic listed companies' performance in the first three quarters was positive, with revenue and profit growth [38] - Many funds adjusted their benchmarks, and a draft guideline for public - fund benchmarks was issued [40] - Some foreign - funded public funds performed well this year, and fund managers are optimistic about the fourth - quarter A - share market [40] - Foreign institutions actively surveyed A - share companies in October [41] - Insurance institutions increased their A - share holdings, with a large proportion in the financial and manufacturing sectors [41] - More listed companies announced cash - dividend plans, and the total cash - dividend amount was large [41] - Shanghai Suyuan Technology Co., Ltd. started the listing - guidance process [42] - CITIC Securities believes there are still structural opportunities in the A - share market and suggests investment in specific directions [44] - Brokerages' November gold - stock lists are concentrated in certain sectors, and the market is expected to rise [44] Industry - New - energy vehicle retail sales in October are expected to reach 1.32 million, with a penetration rate of about 60%. Some car - makers had high delivery volumes [45] - Hainan adjusted its car - scrap and replacement subsidy policy [45] - Shenzhen's property market cooled in October, with lower new - and second - hand housing sales [45] - A villa in Shenzhen was auctioned at a high price [46] - Liquor prices continued to decline, and e - commerce promotions were more subdued [47] Overseas - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has lasted 32 days, and it may last until late November [48] - U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested Fed rate cuts and mentioned no tariff on Canada [48] - Fed officials have different views on December interest - rate cuts, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut has decreased [48] International Stock Markets - U.S. stock trading hours will be postponed by 1 hour starting from November 3 due to winter time, and economic data release times will also be postponed [50] Commodities - New tax policies for gold were announced, which are expected to improve the market environment [51] - OPEC + agreed to increase production in December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [52] Bonds - Shanxi Province issued 2.373 billion yuan of government bonds through Beijing Stock Exchange, with an average interest rate of 2.02% [53] Economic Data Release Schedule - Various economic data such as China's October S&P manufacturing PMI, Switzerland's October CPI, etc. will be released at different times [56] Events Schedule - There are events such as the expiration of China's central - bank reverse - repurchase operations, speeches by central - bank officials, and international meetings [58] Market Closure Information - Tokyo Stock Exchange was closed due to Culture Day [60]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.47% at 46,924.74 points, the S&P 500 unchanged at 6,735.35 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 22,953.67 points [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Google down over 2%, Tesla down over 1%, Nvidia down 0.83%, while Amazon rose nearly 3%, Apple up 0.23%, Microsoft up 0.17%, and Facebook up 0.15% [1] - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with Daqo New Energy down nearly 5%, Alibaba down nearly 4%, NIO down nearly 4%, Miniso down nearly 3%, and JD Group down nearly 3%. However, TAL Education rose over 6%, Bilibili rose nearly 6%, and New Oriental rose nearly 5% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed slightly higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.29% at 24,330.03 points, France's CAC40 index up 0.64% at 8,258.86 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.25% at 9,426.99 points [1] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures fell 5.07% to $4,138.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures dropped 6.27% to $48.16 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract rose 0.98% to $57.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.0% to $61.62 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.35% to 98.97, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by 28 basis points to 7.1269 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 0.64 basis points to 3.445%, the 3-year yield down 0.56 basis points to 3.450%, the 5-year yield down 1.91 basis points to 3.552%, the 10-year yield down 2.49 basis points to 3.953%, and the 30-year yield down 3.39 basis points to 4.535% [1] - European bond yields also fell collectively, with the UK 10-year yield down 2.7 basis points to 4.476%, France's 10-year yield down 2 basis points to 3.341%, Germany's 10-year yield down 2.5 basis points to 2.550%, Italy's 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points to 3.342%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points to 3.079% [1]

Market Performance Overnight - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.40% at $4,060.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.95% at $48.44 per ounce [3][34] - WTI crude oil futures rose 0.92% to $62.3 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 0.96% to $66.08 per barrel [4][35] - Most London base metals fell, with LME zinc down 1.67% at $2,995 per ton, LME tin down 0.79% at $36,250 per ton, LME nickel down 0.64% at $15,390 per ton, LME copper down 0.56% at $10,701 per ton, and LME lead down 0.27% at $2,005.50 per ton [4][35] Key Macroeconomic News - Trump's envoys arrived in Sharm El - Sheikh for negotiations on hostage release and ending the Gaza war [7] - Hurricane "Priscilla" strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane and is moving towards the western coast of Mexico, bringing potential disasters [7] - Russian President Putin said the Russian army will achieve all goals of the special military operation [7] - Trump said Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of the peace plan, and all hostages will be released soon [7] - Fed officials are increasingly divided on future interest rate trends, but most think further rate cuts are necessary this year [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of October 4, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 154,383 kiloliters to 10,289,275 kiloliters, gasoline inventory decreased by 77,841 kiloliters to 1,544,084 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory increased by 53,513 kiloliters to 2,767,332 kiloliters. The average refinery utilization rate was 86.3% [9][10] - As of October 6, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 3 million barrels to 16.334 million barrels [10] Metal Futures - Gold prices broke through $4,000 per ounce, hitting a record high. Umicore sold about €410 million worth of gold inventory [12] - HSBC expects silver prices to reach $49 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $41.5 per ounce by the end of 2026 [13] - In August 2025, Indonesia exported 17,710 tons of nickel sulfate, with 17,620 tons going to China (99.49% of the total). It exported 877,181 tons of ferronickel, with 833,931 tons going to China (95.07% of the total) [13] - On October 8, 2025, 30,000 tons of overseas alumina were traded at FOB Indonesia $324.5 per ton for November shipment [14] Black - Series Futures - Shenmu Hongliulin Mining Co., Ltd. of Shaanxi Coal Group was ordered to suspend production for rectification due to over - production [17] - On October 8, coking coal prices in the Changzhi market were weak and stable, with overall supply stable and online auctions seeing price cuts or failures [17] Agricultural Futures - In September, Brazil's soybean exports reached 7.341 million tons, up from 6.106 million tons in the same period last year, with a daily average export increase of 20.2% [18] - Indonesia is promoting the plan to mandate B50 biodiesel in 2026, currently implementing the B40 plan [18] - Argentina's government ordered a suspension of the planned indefinite strike by oilseed workers [18] - As of October 1, Argentine farmers sold 868,100 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 52,700 tons of 2025/26 soybeans [19] Financial Markets Financial - The Hang Seng Index fell 0.48% to 26,829.46 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.55%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.52%. Gold and nuclear power stocks rose [22] - During the "Double Festival" holiday, overseas stock markets and Chinese concept stocks performed well. Foreign capital net - flowed into Chinese stocks by $4.6 billion in September [22] - On October 9, 23 funds were launched, and nearly 70 new funds are scheduled to be issued in October [23] - In October, brokers' recommended golden stocks are concentrated in electronics, power equipment, and media sectors [23] - Juewei Food will be removed from the Hang Seng A - share (investable) index after the close on October 24 [25] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that precious metals and copper prices have risen, and the A - share market is expected to continue an upward trend [25] - CITIC Securities believes that resource security, enterprise overseas expansion, and technological competition are important structural market clues [25] Industry - The holiday tourism market showed characteristics of strong demand in small cities, booming inbound and outbound travel, and strong experiential consumption [26] - After the "September 5" real - estate policy in Shenzhen, the real - estate market heated up, with new and second - hand housing net - signing volumes increasing [26] - The Changsha property market saw a wave of house - viewing during the "Golden September and Silver October" and the holiday [26] - During the "Double Festival", the price war of liquor sales on e - commerce platforms intensified, with prices of some famous brands falling below the wholesale price [28] Overseas - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be about 3% in the medium - term, and global public debt to exceed 100% of GDP by 2029 [29] - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the short - term appropriation bill and the Democratic alternative, and the federal government remains shut down [30] - Trump said the Gaza cease - fire agreement is close to being reached [30] - The U.S. 2025 fiscal deficit is $1.8 trillion, a decrease of $800 million from 2024 [30] - The EU Commission launched two AI strategies to accelerate AI application in industry and science [30] - Germany's industrial output in August fell 4.3% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [31] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% [31] - The Bank of Thailand maintained the key interest rate at 1.50% [31] - In the first half of fiscal year 2025, the number of bankrupt enterprises in Japan reached 5,172, a 1.5% increase year - on - year [31] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks mostly rose, with the S&P 500 up 0.58% and the Nasdaq up 1.12%. The Nasdaq closed above 23,000 for the first time [32] - European stocks closed higher, with the German DAX up 0.87%, the French CAC40 up 1.07%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.69% [32] - Tekscend Photomask's IPO price was set at the upper limit of the range, raising ¥156.6 billion [32][33] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally rose, with gold and silver prices increasing [34] - Crude oil prices rose due to a decline in U.S. refined oil inventory and a rising stock market [35] - Most base metals in London fell [35] - The International Copper Study Group predicts a 178,000 - ton surplus in 2025 and a 150,000 - ton shortage in 2026. Goldman Sachs raised the 2026 copper price forecast to $10,500 per ton [35] Bonds - Emerging market sovereign bonds are approaching a "critical point" and may see a structural rating re - evaluation [36] - U.S. Treasury yields fluctuated, with short - term yields rising and long - term yields falling [37] Foreign Exchange - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.86, and most non - U.S. currencies fell [38] Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Upcoming economic data includes the UK's September three - month RICS house price index, Japan's foreign bond/equity purchases, etc. [40] Events - Upcoming events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, the Philippine central bank's interest - rate decision, etc. [42]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai silver rose 3.90%, fuel oil nearly 2%, SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) over 1%. On the downside, coking coal and glass dropped over 3%, coke and pulp over 2%, and soda ash, caustic soda, rebar, and rubber over 1% [3]. - International precious metals generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.50% to $3789.8 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.27%; COMEX silver futures rose 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 7.95% [4]. - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly. WTI crude futures rose 0.32% to $65.19 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.47%; Brent crude futures rose 0.35% to $68.82 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.21% [5]. - London base metals all declined. LME zinc fell 1.37% to $2886.50 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.09%; LME nickel fell 0.81% to $15155 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.76%; LME lead fell 0.69% to $2001.50 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.25%; LME copper fell 0.53% to $10205 per ton, with a weekly gain of 2.16%; LME aluminum fell 0.36% to $2649 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.84%; LME tin fell 0.07% to $34415.00 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.71% [5]. - International agricultural futures showed mixed trends. US soybeans rose 0.17%, US corn fell 1.00%, US soybean oil fell 0.24%, US soybean meal rose 0.62%, and US wheat fell 1.52% [7]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The National Energy Administration released power industry statistics for January - August. As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%; wind power installed capacity was 0.58 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the same period last year [9]. - The third-quarter (110th) meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held on September 23. The meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and enhancing the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote economic stability and reasonable prices [9]. - Shanghai Shipping Exchange data showed that as of September 26, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1114.52 points, a decrease of 83.69 points from the previous period; the China Export Containerized Freight Index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decrease from the previous period [9]. - The Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises, focusing on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing "involutionary" vicious competition [10]. - US consumer spending in August exceeded expectations, and underlying inflation remained stable. Real consumer spending increased 0.4% for the second consecutive month. The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and remained at 2.9% year - on - year, indicating economic robustness [10]. - On September 28, the UN Secretary - General's Office confirmed that six Iran - related sanctions resolutions of the UN Security Council had been re - enacted since 8 p.m. EDT on September 27 [11]. - Hamas stated that it had not received new proposals from mediators, and negotiations with Israel had been at a standstill since an assassination attempt on its leader in Doha [11]. - If the US federal government shuts down, the September employment report scheduled for release this Friday may be delayed [11]. - Trump said he was okay with a government shutdown if necessary. He will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday and attend a meeting with senior military generals on Tuesday [11]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin said upcoming data would determine further Fed rate cuts; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supported the Fed holding only Treasuries and ignoring one - time tariff impacts [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 25, East China port methanol inventory was 82.40 tons, a decrease of 2.78 tons from the previous week [14]. - As of September 25, PVC social inventory increased 1.84% month - on - month to 97.13 tons, a 16.23% year - on - year increase. East China inventory was 91.33 tons, a 2.18% month - on - month and 14.86% year - on - year increase [16]. - Seven government departments issued a work plan for the petrochemical industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of over 5% and addressing issues like fertilizer supply and capacity control [16]. - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower Middle East oil prices [16]. - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at this week's meeting [17]. Metal Futures - Global alumina production in August 2025 was 1.3301 million tons, compared to 1.2555 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 1.3182 million tons in the previous month. China's estimated production was 0.798 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [19]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper inventory by 7035 tons, aluminum by 3108 tons, lead by 8123 tons, nickel by 826 tons, and tin by 429 tons last week, while zinc inventory increased by 1229 tons [20]. - As of September 25, the national lead ingot social inventory was 42,200 tons, a decrease of 8900 tons from September 22 [20]. - The Indonesian mining minister said that mining companies meeting land - restoration fund requirements could have their mining licenses restored from "suspended" to "normal" [22]. - Eight government departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of about 5%, a 1.5% average annual increase in ten non - ferrous metal production, and other goals [22]. Black - series Futures - Mysteel data showed that the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 140.0028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.992 million tons [24]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 39.40 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a 13,400 - ton increase from the previous week [24]. - The China Coking Industry Association refuted false information about "forced production cuts" and "joint price increases" [24]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data showed that the total urban inventory this week was 9.0242 million tons, a 3.36% (313,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week. Construction steel inventory was 4.9196 million tons, a 5.10% (264,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week [25]. Agricultural Futures - The US agreed to consider tariff exemptions for Malaysian cocoa and palm oil products [28]. - Analyst Thomas Mielke predicted that global palm oil and soybean oil prices would rise by $100 - $150 per ton from January to June 2026 due to supply tightness [28]. - SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased 3.19% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased 4.14% month - on - month [28]. - SGS data showed that the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from September 1 - 25 were 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease from the same period last month [29]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the premium for alternative delivery products of jujube futures for contracts starting from 2612 [29]. - As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased 3.08% week - on - week to 277,200 tons [29]. - As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 74.11 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 236.57 yuan per head [29]. 3. Financial Market Finance - With the A - share market stabilizing, the private placement market has become active. As of September 28, 218 funds from 28 fund companies participated in private placement projects, with a cost of 5.864 billion yuan, exceeding last year's total, and over 90% of placements had floating profits [32]. - Bank wealth management subsidiaries have been more active in the equity market, conducting over 2100 research on A - share listed companies this year, focusing on the GEM and STAR Market. The issuance scale of equity and hybrid wealth management products has reached 72.7 billion yuan, exceeding last year's level [32]. - Many securities analysts expect the A - share market to gradually rise in the fourth quarter, with a focus on the technology growth sector [32]. - 1311 A - share listed companies have issued equity incentive plans this year, compared to 381 in 2024 [33]. - Hefei Youai Zhihé Robot Technology Co., Ltd. applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If successful, it may become the "first mobile operation robot stock" [33]. - JD Industry submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange again, planning to issue about 253.3 million common shares [35]. - Micro - billion Intelligent Manufacturing, a provider of industrial embodied intelligent robots, applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35]. - Hitcard, a four - year - old card company, is advancing its listing process after obtaining multiple rounds of financing [35]. Industry - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for value - added growth, resource development, and other goals [36]. - From January to August, national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with railway investment at 504.1 billion yuan, highway at 1.5412 trillion yuan, waterway at 143.3 billion yuan, and civil aviation at 70.7 billion yuan [36]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises [36]. - As of September 27, about 200 Chinese cities and counties have issued over 470 policies to stabilize the real estate market this year, and more policies are expected in the fourth quarter [38]. - Guangzhou expanded the scope of housing provident fund withdrawals for housing purchases and elevator renovation [38]. - Changchun adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy, with a minimum down payment of 15% for certain home purchases [38]. - Jiangsu Province suspended its automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28 [38]. - Shanghai Future Industry Fund completed a capital increase from 10 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan and has invested in cutting - edge fields [39]. - The CSRC announced the 2025 classification evaluation results of securities companies, with 53 A - class companies, 43 B - class companies, and 11 C - class companies [39]. - The cement industry has increased production cuts due to the real estate market. Under the influence of a new work plan, the industry may reduce inefficient clinker production capacity by about 10% this year, and the cement price is expected to rebound [39]. - The predicted box office for the first day of the 2025 National Day holiday is 343 million yuan, with "The Volunteers: To the War," "Assassin in Red 2," and "Life of a Loser" leading the list [41]. Overseas - Trump will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday due to the risk of a US government shutdown. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement by September 30, some government agencies may shut down [42]. - Goldman Sachs analysts said the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising, which will impact the Fed's monetary policy [42]. - Due to the US tariff policy adjustments, the global trade friction index reached 110 in July, with the amount of trade friction measures increasing year - on - year and month - on - month [42]. - Over 3000 food products in Japan will see price increases in October [43]. Commodity - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting [44]. Bond - On September 28, the bond market was stable, with small fluctuations in yields. The central bank conducted 181.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 181.7 billion yuan [46]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors reminded underwriting institutions to comply with regulations on debt - financing tool issuance [46]. - As of September 28, Henan Province has issued 270.635 billion yuan of special bonds this year, mainly for infrastructure and other fields [46]. Foreign Exchange - South Korea and the US reached an agreement on the exchange rate issue, and the US recognized that South Korea did not manipulate the exchange rate, clearing the way for South Korea to be removed from the US Treasury's exchange - rate manipulation monitoring list [47]. 4. Upcoming Events Economic Indicators - Japan's July coincident/leading indicators final value will be released at 13:00 [49]. - Spain's September CPI preliminary value will be released at 15:00 [49]. - The UK's August central bank mortgage approvals will be released at 16:30 [49]. - The Eurozone's September industrial/economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index final value will be released at 17:00 [49]. - The US's August pending home sales index will be released at 22:00 [49]. - The US's September Dallas Fed business activity index will be released at 22:30 [49]. Events - 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will mature at 09:20 [51]. - Bank of Japan board member Noguchi Akira will give a speech at 13:30 [51]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on cultural and tourism development achievements at 14:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Madis Müller will speak on the digital euro at 14:30 [51]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a September press conference at 15:00 [51]. - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference on China - Nordic economic and trade cooperation at 15:00 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will speak on the digital euro at 15:10 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno will give a speech at 16:30 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and the German Banking Association will exchange views on monetary policy at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel will give a speech at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujčić will give a speech at 19:35 [51]. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a policy

Macroeconomic Data Overview - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2025 is reported at 5.20%, a decrease from 5.40% in the previous quarter and an increase from 4.70% in the same period last year [1] - The Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 49.40, slightly up from 49.30 in July and up from 49.10 year-on-year [1] - The Non-Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 is at 50.30, showing a slight increase from 50.10 in July and unchanged from the previous year [1] - The total social financing scale for August 2025 is reported at 25,668 billion yuan, a significant increase from 11,307 million yuan in July and a decrease from 30,323 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The CPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%, compared to 0.00% in July and 0.60% last year [1] - The PPI for August 2025 shows a year-on-year decrease of 2.90%, an improvement from a decrease of 3.60% in July and a decrease of 1.80% last year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that stock prices are currently overvalued but stated that financial stability risks are not high at this time [2] - The U.S. White House's cryptocurrency committee executive director expects the cryptocurrency market structure bill to pass by the end of the year, which aims to consolidate various legislative efforts [2] - The SEC chairman expressed hopes for a new "innovation exemption" rule to be introduced by the end of the year, allowing cryptocurrency companies to launch products more easily [2] Metals - As of September 23, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 32,169,273.34 ounces (1,000.57 tons) of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.58% to $3,796.9 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce [4] Steel Industry - A notice from five departments outlines a growth stabilization plan for the steel industry for 2025-2026, emphasizing the acceleration of key iron ore projects and supporting compliant mining enterprises [6] - The steel industry aims for an average annual growth rate of 4% over the next two years, with a strict prohibition on new capacity [7] Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices have risen sharply, with U.S. crude oil main contract up by 2.20% to $63.65 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up by 1.85% to $67.19 per barrel [8] - The Russian government is discussing extending the export ban on gasoline producers until October and is considering a possible ban on diesel exports [8] - Kuwait's oil minister noted a recovery in global oil demand as oil inventories fall below the five-year average [8] Agricultural Products - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council indicates that upward price potential is limited due to weak demand, while uncertainties in export supply provide some support [10] - Brazil's agriculture ministry announced the reopening of the EU market for Brazilian chicken following an outbreak of avian influenza [10] Financial Market Overview - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 276.1 billion yuan on September 23, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan for the day [11] - The People's Bank of China governor met with Ray Dalio to discuss international economic conditions and financial market dynamics [12] - Concerns over local government special bond risks have drawn attention from the National People's Congress, highlighting the rapid growth of government debt [13] Stock Market News - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations, with major banks showing stability and significant gains in semiconductor equipment and photolithography concepts [27] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.7%, with declines in consumer, real estate, and healthcare sectors [27] - Since the release of the "merger and acquisition six guidelines," over 2,800 A-share companies have disclosed M&A activities, with a notable increase in transactions in the semiconductor sector [27]

Economic Outlook - OECD projects global economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 2.9% [1] - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 has been slightly raised to 1.8% from 1.6%, with a 2026 forecast of 1.5% [1] Central Bank Actions - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, citing a deteriorating labor market [1] - The Bank of England's Chief Economist suggests accelerating the balance sheet reduction process, indicating stronger market conditions than previously anticipated [2] - The Swedish central bank has lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%, marking the third cut this year [3] Market Performance - US second-quarter current account deficit significantly decreased by $188.5 billion to $251.3 billion, the lowest level since Q3 2023 [5] - The September manufacturing PMI for the US was reported at 52, while the services PMI was at 53.9, both below expectations and marking three-month lows [5] Global Market Dynamics - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, indicating contraction, while the services PMI rose to 51.4, exceeding expectations [6] - The UK's September manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.2, a five-month low, with the services PMI also declining to 51.9 [6] - Germany's services PMI increased to 52.5, an eight-month high, while its manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5, a four-month low [7] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.58% to $3796.9 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce [8] - US crude oil futures climbed by 2.20% to $63.65 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 1.82% to $67.17 per barrel [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of various financial markets, including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, along with important macroeconomic and industry - specific news. It shows a complex picture of market trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and economic data releases. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.23% at $3673.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.12% at $42.07 per ounce [3][44] - US oil and Brent crude oil futures declined, with US oil down 2.25% at $62.24 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.78% at $66.29 per barrel [4][44] - London base metals all rose, with LME aluminum up 2.06% at $2679.00 per ton, LME zinc up 0.64% at $2905.00 per ton, LME nickel up 0.49% at $15220.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.44% at $10057.00 per ton [4][45] - Domestic futures contracts were mixed, with some like soybeans and palm oil rising and others like low - sulfur fuel oil and glass falling [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - As of September 11, Ningbo Zhoushan Port's container throughput exceeded 30 million TEUs, 23 days earlier than last year [8] - From September 1 - 7, the national passenger car market retail sales were 304,000 units, down 10% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month, with cumulative sales of 15.069 million units this year, up 9% year - on - year [8] - In August, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, up 13% and 16.4% year - on - year [8][32] - US investors' interest in the Chinese market reached the highest level since 2021 [9] - US August CPI data was higher than expected, but Fed rate cuts next week are still likely due to a weak job market [9] - US initial jobless claims reached a nearly four - year high, increasing bets on Fed rate cuts, but strong CPI may prevent large - scale cuts [11] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 11, East China port methanol inventory was 808,100 tons, up 98,200 tons from last week [13] - Singapore fuel oil and light distillate inventories decreased, while medium distillate inventory increased [13] - IEA raised 2025 global oil supply and demand growth forecasts [13] - OPEC maintained 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts, and OPEC + production increased in August [15] - US natural gas inventory increased in the week ending September 5 [15] Metal Futures - Ningde Times' subsidiary made decisions for lithium mine复产 [17] - In August, China's power and other battery exports were 22.6GWh, down 2.6% month - on - month and up 23.9% year - on - year [17] - Vietnam plans to open a gold exchange and allow gold imports [18] - Gold prices exceeded the inflation - adjusted peak of 45 years ago [18] Black - Series Futures - This week, rebar inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [20] - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines increased, and coal inventory decreased [20] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [20] Agricultural Futures - India should adjust sugar and ethanol prices and allow sugar exports [22] - Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September, and inventory may increase in September [22][24] - Brazilian soybean and corn production forecasts were positive [24][25] - US soybean, corn, and cotton planting areas affected by drought increased [25] Financial Markets Finance - A - shares rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.65%, Shenzhen Component Index up 3.36%, ChiNext Index up 5.15%, and STAR 50 up 5.32% [28] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.43%, and southbound funds had large net purchases [28] - A - share refinancing market activity increased significantly this year [30][31] - Hesai Technology's Hong Kong IPO price was set, and funds raised are expected to be HK$4.16 billion [31] Industry - From 2026, new energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved [32] - China will include HPV vaccines in the national immunization program [32] - Multiple illegal accounts related to enterprise - related online "black mouths" were dealt with [32] - 15 platform companies will sign algorithm and labor rule agreements [33] - 2025 securities firm classification evaluation results are expected to be released in mid - to - late September [35] - Bank wealth management companies' scale increased in August [35] - Some Taobao merchants suspended gold repurchase due to platform rule adjustments [35] - China's express delivery development index increased in August [36] Overseas - The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged, and the market expects the end of the rate - cut cycle [37] - South Korea may need to cut rates due to US tariffs [37] - Switzerland proposed a comprehensive plan to resolve trade disputes with the US [37] - Turkey's central bank cut rates by more than expected [39] International Stocks - US stocks reached new highs, with the Dow up 1.36%, S&P 500 up 0.85%, and Nasdaq up 0.72% [40] - European stocks rose, driven by positive economic data and rate - cut expectations [40] - Asian - Pacific stocks continued to rise, with Japanese and South Korean stocks hitting new highs [40] - Japan's central bank plans to reduce ETF holdings [41] - Tata Capital plans a large - scale IPO [41] - Adobe released its Q3 financial results and Q4 earnings forecast [43] Commodities - Precious metals had mixed performance, with gold down and silver up [3][44] - Crude oil prices fell due to supply - demand changes [4][44] - Base metals rose, influenced by Fed rate - cut expectations [45] Bonds - China's bond market had a mixed performance, with short - to - medium - term bonds strengthening and 30 - year bonds weakening [47] - US bond yields had different trends [47] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly, and the US dollar index fell [48]