Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing marginal decline, with short-term and long-term inflation expectations diverging. The ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2025 fell to 48.70%, down from 49.10%, remaining below the threshold of 50, indicating contraction [5][4]. - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for November 2025 decreased to 50.3, down from 53.6, reflecting declining consumer sentiment [5][4]. - The US refinery utilization rate for the week ending October 31, 2025, dropped to 86.0%, down from 86.6% the previous week [8]. - The US crude steel production for the week ending November 1, 2025, showed a slight year-on-year decline, with a production rate of 9.2%, compared to 9.9% the previous week [8]. Market Performance - Global asset prices showed mixed performance, with commodity prices mostly declining. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.29%, and the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.08%. In contrast, the emerging market stock index fell by 0.99%, and the developed market stock index decreased by 1.51%. The S&P 500 dropped by 1.63%, and the Nikkei 225 fell by 4.07% [1][4]. - Commodity prices generally declined, with London gold down by 0.06%, the S&P-Goldman commodity index down by 0.54%, and IPE Brent crude futures down by 2.11% [1][4]. - In the bond market, the domestic 10Y government bond futures price fell by 0.22%, and the overall index of China’s bonds decreased by 0.10% [1][4]. Policy Implications - The "data vacuum" due to the US government shutdown has intensified market volatility regarding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The release of the September CPI data was delayed from October 15 to October 24, and the October CPI report, originally scheduled for November 13, may also be delayed [2][20]. - Current market expectations indicate a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 33.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [20]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained stable monetary policy, with key deposit rates held at 2%. The ECB is cautious about ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks, which may impact future economic forecasts [21].

上周，美国股市因公共假期休市一天。在四个交易日里，特朗普政府所谓"大而美"的大规模税收和支出 法案在美国国会参众两院艰难闯关，牵动市场神经，美国三大股指走出震荡行情。最终这一备受争议的 法案在当地时间上周五由特朗普签署成为法律。不过，在美国和越南达成贸易协议以及美国6月新增非 农就业人数大幅高于预期等积极因素的带动下，美国三大股指上周累计上涨，标普500指数和纳指两次 刷新收盘历史纪录。其中，道指累计上涨2.30%，标普500指数上涨1.72%，纳指上涨1.62%。 上周国际油价上涨 贵金属期货方面，上周，全球贸易局势仍面临很大不确定性，加之中东地缘冲突风险抬头，市场避险情 绪有所升温，推动国际金价累计上涨1.68%。 美国"对等关税"暂缓期本周结束 投资者关注美国与主要贸易伙伴谈判进展 本周，投资者较为关注的仍然是关税方面的消息。9日，也就是本周三，美国所谓"对等关税"90天暂缓 期将结束。截至目前，美国仍未与欧盟、日本等主要贸易伙伴达成协议。美国总统特朗普上周日（6 日）表示，他可能会在当地时间周一发出12或15封关于关税的信函，但并未透露这些信函发送的目的 地。有分析认为，美国在与主要贸易伙伴谈判进展不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil futures, including Brent and WTI, experienced a decline of over 2% in a single day, indicating market volatility and potential impacts on the energy sector [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The drop in crude oil prices suggests a reaction to geopolitical developments, particularly involving Israel and Iran [1] - The mention of peace talks by former President Trump may influence market sentiment and investor confidence in the region [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - Trump's statement about Israel and Iran seeking peace indicates a potential shift in diplomatic relations, which could have implications for oil supply and pricing [1] - The optimistic outlook for the future of Israel and Iran may affect regional stability and energy markets [1]

Group 1 - Spot gold has turned to a decline of nearly 0.1%, falling below $3430 per ounce [1] - WTI and Brent crude oil futures have seen their gains narrow to less than 1% [1]

Group 1 - U.S. stock futures recovered earlier losses and turned slightly positive [1] - Brent and WTI crude oil futures saw their gains narrow to within 1.5% [1]

Group 1 - Crude oil futures saw a significant increase in early Asian trading on Monday, with Brent crude rising by 5.5% and WTI increasing by over 6% [1]

Group 1 - Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting military and nuclear facilities, with the operation named "Lion's Strength" [3][6][9] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz announced that the military action would continue for several days, indicating a prolonged conflict [4][10] - The strikes reportedly resulted in the deaths of an Iranian military commander and a senior nuclear scientist [1] Group 2 - Following the attacks, oil prices surged, with Brent and WTI crude futures both rising over 8% [14] - Oil and gas stocks in the A-share market opened significantly higher, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and Beiken Energy hitting their daily limit [13] - Gold prices also increased, with spot gold surpassing $3,420 per ounce, reflecting a rise of over 1% [11][16]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares in the oil and gas sector experienced a significant surge in opening prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Companies such as Tongyuan Petroleum, Beiken Energy, Zhongman Petroleum, and Zhunyou Co. reached their daily price limit [1] - Potential Energy surged over 17%, while other companies like Xinjin Power, Huibo, and Renzhi also opened high [1] Group 2: External Factors - The spike in oil and gas stocks is attributed to Israel's attack on Iran, which has led to an increase of over 8% in both Brent and WTI crude oil futures [1]

国际金价5月小幅下跌 今年以来上涨超25% 贵金属方面，纽商所黄金期货主力合约5月小幅下跌，跌幅约为 0.11%。今年以来，国际金价累计上涨 约25.5%。 本周欧洲央行将公布最新利率决议 降息或"板上钉钉" 【#国际金价年内上涨超25%##5月纳指涨幅接近10%#】首先来看美股上周交易的情况。受美欧贸易谈 判出现积极信号、美国国际贸易法院一度"叫停"特朗普政府多项关税措施提振市场情绪等因素影响，上 周道指累计上涨1.6%，标普500上涨1.88%，纳指涨2.01%。在刚刚过去的5月，美国三大股指全部累计 上涨，大部分上涨发生在美国和英国宣布初步达成贸易协定之后，其中纳指涨幅接近10%。 上周国际油价下跌 油价方面，"欧佩克+"计划在7月大规模增产的消息令投资者担忧原油将长期出现供大于求的局面，国际 油价上周承压下跌。美油期货价格全周累计下跌1.20%，布油期货价格累计下跌1.36%。 本周美国5月非农就业报告和美联储"褐皮书"受关注 当地时间本周五，美国将公布5月非农就业报告。分析预计，美国5月非农新增就业人数将从上月的17.7 万人大幅下降至13万人，失业率预计持平在4.2%，美国就业市场或将出现降温信号 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are rising, with WTI crude futures increasing by over 2% and Brent crude futures rising nearly 2% [1] Group 1 - WTI crude futures have seen a significant increase of over 2% [1] - Brent crude futures have also experienced a rise of nearly 2% [1]