燃料油基本面数据 2025 年 6 月 3 日 燃料油：大跌趋势延续，短期波动将持续放大 低硫燃料油：跟随原油下探，外盘现货高低硫 价差出现反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨跌 | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2507 | 元/吨 | 2.903 | | -4.88% | 2.938 | -3.70% | | | | FU2508 | 元/晓 | 2.842 | | -3.70% | 2,870 | -3.07% | | | | LU2507 | 元/晓 | 3.428 | | -3.65% | 3.458 | -2. 48% | | | | LU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,380 | | -2. 48% | 3.400 | -2.66% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-05-30 伊朗燃料油出口维持低位 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.87%，报2972元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.06%，报3512 元/吨。 原油价格维持震荡态势，短期多空因素交织，趋势暂不明朗，对燃料油市场指引有限，中期则面临平衡表转为过 剩的压力。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前矛盾有限，高低硫市场结构均存在一定支撑。其中，低硫燃料油月差、裂解价差 开始出现一定幅度回落，但目前还没有明显的过剩迹象。中期来看，船燃需求份额下行、剩余产能偏多的压力并 未逆转。高硫燃料油方面，虽然目前没有供应紧张的信号，但支撑因素还在延续。在美国制裁的压力下，伊朗燃 料油供应仍受到抑制。参考船期数据，伊朗5月高硫燃料油发货量仅有72万吨，环比4月减少34万吨，同比去年下 降130万吨。伊核谈判尚未出现实质性进展，叠加夏季用电高峰，伊朗燃料油出口或维持低位。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低多FU2507-2509价差机会，前期正套头寸可逢高止盈 期现：无 期权：无 ...

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/5/22 | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/15 | 2025/4/24 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 3000 | 3074 | 2985 | 2998 | -74 | 15 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 14.7 | 15.8 | 15.6 | 23.3 | -1.1 | -1.0 | | FU仓单(吨) | 28950 | 28950 | 35950 | 46170 | 0 | -7000 | | LU主力 | 3505 | 3571 | 3595 | 3446 | -66 | -90 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 3.8 | -0.4 | ...

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 燃料油日报 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn 第一部分 相关数据 | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/20 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/4/23 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 3074 | 3042 | 3057 | 3068 | 32 | 17 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 15.8 | 15.6 | 14.7 | 25.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | | FU仓单(吨) | 28950 | 28950 | 38620 | 46170 | 0 | -9670 | | LU主力 | 3571 | 3556 | 3647 | 3507 | 15 | -76 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-05-21 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.86%，报3042元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.56%，报3556 元/吨。 近日原油价格呈现震荡运行态势，短期方向不明朗，对FU、LU价格指引有限。 燃料油自身市场结构当前维持稳固，高硫和低硫油短期基本面尚可。其中，5月份地中海ECA生效后，虽然低硫燃 料油需求被部分替代，但炼厂也通过产品调整减少低硫燃料油供应，欧洲市场表现实际强于此前预期，套利船货 量的收紧也对亚洲市场形成支撑。高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东等地发电厂需求进入季节性增长阶段。 沙特、埃及等国家燃料油采购逐渐增加，富查伊拉与新加坡库存近期均呈现下滑态势，反应市场供应压力有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，中期仍存在压力 低硫方面：短期震荡偏强，中期仍存在压力 跨品种：无 跨期：关注逢低多FU2507-2509价差机会（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求不及预期、船燃需求不及预期 油价震荡运行，燃料油市场结构维持稳固 市场分析 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.37% at 3,012 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,563 yuan/ton [1] - After the first round of Sino-US trade negotiations and the warming of macro sentiment, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend recently, boosting the overall energy sector. However, the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the crude oil market has not reversed, and resistance may start to appear after continuous rebounds [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis of Fuel Oil - The reduction of tariffs is beneficial to trade and shipping demand, and there is additional inventory replenishment demand during the 90-day suspension period, which is expected to drive the improvement of marine fuel oil consumption. Low-sulfur fuel oil, with more concentrated downstream demand in the marine fuel segment, may be more sensitive [2] - After the entry into force of the Mediterranean ECA in May, although the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was partially replaced, refineries also reduced the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil through product adjustment. The European market performed stronger than expected, and the tightening of arbitrage cargo volume also supported the Asian market. However, in the medium term, the low-sulfur fuel oil market still faces the contradiction of demand share replacement and excess capacity [2] - As summer approaches, the demand for power plants in the Middle East and other regions will gradually increase. Saudi Arabia, the largest consumer, has shown an increasing trend in fuel oil procurement. According to shipping schedule data, Saudi Arabia's high-sulfur fuel oil imports in May are expected to reach 960,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 250,000 tons. However, OPEC began to accelerate production increase in May, and power plants can use more domestic raw materials (crude oil, fuel oil, etc.), so it is not advisable to have too high expectations for the peak-season demand increase in the power generation segment [2] Group 3: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term volatile and upward, medium-term pressure still exists [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term volatile and upward, medium-term pressure still exists [3] - Cross-variety: No strategy [3] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread) [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-05-08 埃及燃料油进口逐渐增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.05%，报2888元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.72%，报3399 元/吨。 原油价格超跌后昨日反弹，反映不确定性因素较多，短期趋势不明朗，对下游FU、LU价格指引有限。 就燃料油自身基本面来看，虽然前期现货端紧张的矛盾已缓解，炼厂与船燃端需求面临利空。但随着夏季临近， 中东、埃及等地电厂终端需求将迎来季节性提升。其中，埃及预计成为今年重要的消费增量来源，由于国内天然 气产量下滑，埃及将使用更多燃料油来作为替代发电原料。目前埃及需求已经有明显增长的迹象，参考船期数据， 5月份埃及高硫燃料油进口量预计达到61万吨，同比去年提升16万吨。参考去年季节性规律，到夏季高峰时埃及进 口可能还有20-30万吨/月的增长空间，对于高硫油市场来说是潜在的利好驱动。 低硫燃料油方面，近期市场结构呈现边际好转的迹象，现货贴水、月差与裂解价差回升，西区套利船货供应边际 收紧，短期供应压力有限，但中期矛盾尚未逆转，5月欧洲新增ECA区域将对船燃端消费形成进一步冲击。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.4% at 2,837 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3,328 yuan/ton [1] - International oil prices tumbled during the May Day holiday, causing commodities such as crude oil and fuel oil to decline after the holiday. There was a rebound in the night session yesterday, and the repeated fluctuations in the market have disturbed the prices of downstream energy and chemical products [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil itself continue to be a mix of long and short factors, and downstream demand shows a differentiated trend. Among them, the demand from refineries and the shipping sector is suppressed, while there is a significant incremental expectation for power generation demand, which includes seasonal and natural gas substitution effects. In addition, as OPEC plans to rapidly increase production, the structural shortage of medium and heavy crude oil is expected to ease marginally, which will boost the production of high-sulfur fuel oil to a certain extent [1] - In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent fundamentals and market structure show signs of marginal improvement. The spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread have all strengthened to a certain extent. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has tightened periodically, and the short-term market pressure is limited. However, the trend of a large amount of remaining production capacity and the substitution of bunker fuel consumption has not reversed, and the current state may not be very sustainable [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 3.4% at 2,837 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.22% at 3,328 yuan/ton [1] - International oil prices tumbled during the May Day holiday, causing commodities such as crude oil and fuel oil to decline after the holiday. There was a rebound in the night session yesterday, and the repeated fluctuations in the market have disturbed the prices of downstream energy and chemical products [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil itself continue to be a mix of long and short factors, and downstream demand shows a differentiated trend. Among them, the demand from refineries and the shipping sector is suppressed, while there is a significant incremental expectation for power generation demand, which includes seasonal and natural gas substitution effects. In addition, as OPEC plans to rapidly increase production, the structural shortage of medium and heavy crude oil is expected to ease marginally, which will boost the production of high-sulfur fuel oil to a certain extent [1] - In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent fundamentals and market structure show signs of marginal improvement. The spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread have all strengthened to a certain extent. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has tightened periodically, and the short-term market pressure is limited. However, the trend of a large amount of remaining production capacity and the substitution of bunker fuel consumption has not reversed, and the current state may not be very sustainable [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [2] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices (positive spread) [2] - Futures-spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 3.37% at 3,310 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.75% at 3,777 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continued to rise, with Brent reaching around $75 per barrel, strengthening the cost support for fuel oil, causing both FU and LU to follow the upward trend [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, although the market structure has adjusted recently due to the decline in refinery demand, there are still supporting factors. The current tight heavy oil situation will limit the supply growth of high-sulfur fuel oil. With the approaching summer, the power demand in the Middle East, Egypt and other regions will see a seasonal increase. Due to the shortage of natural gas, Egypt, Iran and Iraq are expected to use more high-sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the driving force is relatively limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate in the direction of crude oil, and the market structure remains stable. In the medium term, its market share is squeezed by desulfurization towers and clean energy, and it may face further pressure after the Mediterranean ECA takes effect in May [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 3.37% at 3,310 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.75% at 3,777 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices continued to rise, with Brent reaching around $75 per barrel, strengthening the cost support for fuel oil, causing both FU and LU to follow the upward trend [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, although the market structure has adjusted recently due to the decline in refinery demand, there are still supporting factors. The current tight heavy oil situation will limit the supply growth of high-sulfur fuel oil. With the approaching summer, the power demand in the Middle East, Egypt and other regions will see a seasonal increase. Due to the shortage of natural gas, Egypt, Iran and Iraq are expected to use more high-sulfur fuel oil to replace natural gas, bringing additional consumption increments [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the driving force is relatively limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate in the direction of crude oil, and the market structure remains stable. In the medium term, its market share is squeezed by desulfurization towers and clean energy, and it may face further pressure after the Mediterranean ECA takes effect in May [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate, with short-term adjustments and support at the bottom [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: expected to fluctuate, with a bearish outlook in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: no specific strategy [2] - Cross-period: pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the spread between FU2507 and FU2509 at low prices [2] - Spot-futures: no specific strategy [2] - Options: no specific strategy [2]