Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the high-sulfur cracking spread fluctuated and declined, the near-month calendar spread decreased, and the EW continued to weaken. The 380 8-9 calendar spread weakened to $1.75, the basis weakened and then fluctuated, the FU09 internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the domestic delivery inventory was abundant, maintaining a loose pattern. The Singapore 0.5 cracking spread declined slightly, the calendar spread weakened, and the 8-9 spread fluctuated around $4.5. The LU internal and external spread weakened slightly and then fluctuated, with the 09 spread fluctuating around $16. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's onshore inventory increased significantly. Under the pressure of delivery at the window, the near-month contract was under pressure, and Saudi Arabia's shipments increased month-on-month. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, Egypt's net imports reached a new high, and the high-sulfur supply and demand was still in the peak season. However, the East-West and internal-external spreads have dropped rapidly. The external low-sulfur valuation is relatively high, and the LU internal and external spread is running at a high level. Attention should be paid to the domestic production situation. [6] - The Singapore Hi-5 spread reached a new high this year, both 380cst and VLSFO weakened. The domestic FU internal and external spread rebounded slightly, and the LU valuation is relatively high. Attention can be paid to the short-term valuation regression opportunity of FU-LU, with the risk being the continuous weakening of the external 380cst. [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF Swap M1 increased by $4.12, Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO Swap M1 increased by $7.99, Rotterdam HSFO-Brent M1 decreased by $0.81, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 increased by $19.70, Rotterdam VLSFO-Gas M1 decreased by $11.71, LGO-Brent M1 increased by $0.83, and Rotterdam VLSFO-HSFO M1 increased by $3.87. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by $13.94, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by $12.21, Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by $7.18, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by $0.99, Singapore 380cst-Brent M1 decreased by $1.19, and Singapore VLSFO-Gas M1 increased by $0.14. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by $14.12, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by $7.34, the 380 basis decreased by $0.65, the high-sulfur internal-external spread increased by $2.5, and the low-sulfur internal-external spread decreased by $1.0. [4] Domestic FU Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the prices of FU 01 decreased by 55, FU 05 decreased by 45, FU 09 decreased by 61, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 10, FU 05 - 09 increased by 16, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 6. [4] Domestic LU Data - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the prices of LU 01 decreased by 47, LU 05 decreased by 40, LU 09 decreased by 47, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 7, LU 05 - 09 increased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 remained unchanged. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The high-low sulfur spread continues to rebound, but the driving force on the low-sulfur end remains limited. The market has returned to the fundamental-driven logic. The differentiation pattern between high and low sulfur has significantly converged [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are in a stage of marginal weakening, with the spot premium, monthly spread, and crack spread continuously declining. However, summer power generation demand is strong, shipping consumption is relatively stable, and the increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial for the recovery of import demand [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the market structure is stable. But in the medium term, the demand share of low-sulfur fuel oil will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.44% at 2,960 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.56% at 3,596 yuan/ton [1]. - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the crude oil premium has rapidly declined, and the market has returned to fundamental-driven logic [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil's spread structure is in a stage of marginal weakening, with sufficient supply on the spot side and limited positive drivers. OPEC's production increase will drive up the supply of medium and high-sulfur crude oil and fuel oil. After the ceasefire with Israel, Iran's exports show signs of recovery [1]. - The short-term supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, with insufficient supply of Western arbitrage cargoes and low domestic production in May. But in the medium term, the demand share will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase marginally after the end of the refinery maintenance season [2]. Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Cross-variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - Cross-period: Short the FU2509-FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the logic dominated by fundamentals after the decline of the crude oil premium due to the easing of the Middle - East situation [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but the market structure will find new support after full adjustment [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure and lacks a continuous upward - driving force [2] Group 3: Market Analysis High - sulfur Fuel Oil - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.37% at 2979 yuan/ton [1] - The spread structure has weakened, indicating sufficient supply and lack of positive drivers [1] - OPEC's production increase and Iran's potential export recovery will boost supply [1] - Iraq's high - sulfur fuel oil exports are at a high level, with an expected shipment of 167 tons in June, up 32 tons from May and 70 tons from last year [1] - Summer power - generation demand is strong, shipping consumption is stable, and refinery demand may increase with the adjustment of cracking spread and tax - deduction ratio [1] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.03% at 3590 yuan/ton [1] - Short - term supply pressure is limited, and the market structure is stable due to European refinery conversion and low Western arbitrage cargo supply [2] - Singapore's bunker sales increased in May, supporting the market [2] - In the medium term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will replace its market share, and domestic production may rise after the refinery maintenance season [2] Group 4: Strategy - High - sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur: Oscillating [3] - Cross - variety: Short the FU cracking spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3] - Cross - period: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-27 伊朗6月高硫燃料油发货量小幅增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.03%，报3019元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.19%，报3693 元/吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，并带动能源板块大幅下跌。如果没有新的变 数，原油和燃料油市场或重新进入基本面主导的阶段，FU、LU盘面窄幅波动为主。 高硫燃料油方面，近日月差结构明显转弱，反映现货端相对充裕，下游炼厂端利润的疲软制约了采购需求。供应 方面，伊朗6月高硫燃料油供应并未受到地缘冲突的显著影响。参考船期数据，伊朗6月份高硫燃料油发货量预计 为105万吨，环比增加8万吨，同比减少9万吨。整体来看，地缘扰动结束后高硫燃料油自身市场驱动有限，夏季发 电端消费受到季节性与天然气替代的提振。此外，国内炼厂消费税抵扣比例上调对炼厂燃料油需求存在边际利好， 但裂解价差需要进一步回调来吸引炼厂端的增量需求。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结构持稳运行。最新数据显示5月低硫燃料油国产量处于低位，此外新 加坡5月份船燃销量显著增长，下游船燃需求短期表现良好，对市场存在支撑。 ...

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 6 月 19 日 燃料油日报 大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/6/19 | 2025/6/18 | 2025/6/12 | 2025/5/22 | Δ日 | Δ周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 3369 | 3333 | 2997 | 3000 | 36 | 372 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 25.0 | 25.2 | 21.4 | 14.7 | -0.2 | 3.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 24750 | 24750 | 24750 | 28950 | 0 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3998 | 3921 | 3645 | 3505 | 77 | 353 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 5.2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 6.6 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-19 局势仍不明朗，盘面震荡偏强运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.78%，报3333元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.02%，报3921 元/吨。 随着伊以冲突升级，原油价格走势偏强，对FU、LU单边价格形成提振，但目前局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复波 动。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体矛盾有限，市场存在一定支撑，伊以冲突暂时还未对基本面造成实质性影响。 高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场短期存在支撑。此外，由于以色列 天然气出口到埃及，如果其天然气田生产受损，则可能导致埃及的天然气供应进一步收紧，进而采购更多的高硫 燃料油来填补天然气的缺口。目前战事还未造成实质性的供应中断，但如果有伊朗炼厂和港口在冲突中受到严重 损坏，则其燃料油供应有从源头减少的可能，我国炼厂的原料来源或边际收紧，亚洲高硫燃料油市场面临潜在上 行风险。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，5月低硫燃料油国产量处于低位。此外，最新数据显示新加坡5月份船燃销 量显著增长，下游船燃需求表现良好，对市场存在支撑。但随着国内炼厂检修季结束，预计低硫燃料 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-18 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期 埃及高硫燃料油进口持续增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.03%，报3247元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.25%，报3806 元/吨。 随着伊以冲突升级，原油价格走势偏强，对FU、LU单边价格形成提振，但目前局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复波 动。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体矛盾有限，市场存在一定支撑，伊以冲突暂时还未对基本面造成实质性影响。 高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场短期存在支撑。其中，埃及燃料油 进口延续增长态势。参考船期数据，埃及6月份高硫燃料油进口量目前预计在69万吨，环比增加13万吨。参考去年 季节性，发电终端需求还有提升空间。此外，由于以色列天然气出口到埃及，如果其天然气田生产受损，则可能 导致埃及的天然气供应进一步收紧，进而采购更多的高硫燃料油来填补天然气的缺口。目前战事还未造成实质性 的供应中断，但如果有伊朗炼厂和港口在冲突中受到严重损坏，则其燃料油供应有从源头减少的可能，我国炼厂 的原料来源 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-13 原油端表现强势，盘面受到提振 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨1.37%，报3023元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.33%，报3652 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克会议后呈现震荡偏强走势，短期基本面尚可，且近日中东地缘局势有升温迹象，油价进一步上 涨，并对燃料油等下游能化品形成一定提振。但中期而言，原油仍面临平衡表转为过剩的潜在压力，因此持续反 弹后上方存在阻力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体市场矛盾有限。高硫燃料油裂解价差近期呈现回调态势，就基本面来看，随 着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场短期存在支撑。其中，埃及燃料油进口菱延续增长态势。 参考船期数据，埃及6月份高硫燃料油进口量目前预计在66万吨（后续还有上修空间），环比增加6万吨，同比去年 持平。参考去年季节性，发电终端需求还有提升空间。但由于此前高硫油裂解价差涨至绝对高位，下游炼厂端需 求受到压制，叠加欧佩克加速增产的计划，在未来发电终端需求回落后市场将开始面临压力，需要裂解价差下跌 来吸引炼厂端的弹性需求，以达成市场的再平衡。低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，国内保税 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - High - sulfur fuel oil spot window transactions are active with high transaction prices, supporting the continuous recovery of high - sulfur spot discounts. Short - term factors to watch include the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the return of Russian refineries from spring seasonal maintenance. Mexican high - sulfur exports are falling as secondary production capacity at refineries improves. Middle - East high - sulfur exports declined in May due to lack of progress in US - Iran negotiations. On the demand side, high - sulfur seasonal power generation demand provides support, and import demand from Egypt and Saudi Arabia remains high [8]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil spot discounts fluctuate. Supply is increasing while downstream demand is weak. The operation of the Nigerian Dangote gasoline plant is still unstable, resulting in continuous low - sulfur output. South Sudan's low - sulfur raw material supply has gradually returned to the level of early 2024, with 8 shipments expected from May to June. Al - Zour's low - sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level of normal refinery operation. China's low - sulfur production is expected to increase in June, with sufficient domestic supply and stable demand [8]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Relevant Data - **Price and Position Data**: On June 10, 2025, the FU main contract price was 2966, up 39 from the previous day and 53 from the previous week; the LU main contract price was 3559, up 45 from the previous day and 93 from the previous week. The FU main contract position was 7.1 million hands, down 1.4 million hands from the previous day and 4.0 million hands from the previous week; the LU main contract position was 7.0 million hands, up 0.2 million hands from the previous day and 0.6 million hands from the previous week [3]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 24,750 tons, down 4,200 tons from the previous day; LU low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts were 10,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The LU warehouse receipts decreased by 24,000 tons compared to the previous week [3][5]. - **Spread Data**: The FU7 - 9 spread was 42, down 11 from the previous day and 43 from the previous week; the LU7 - 8 spread was 66, down 3 from the previous day and up 23 from the previous week. The LU - FU main contract spread was 593, up 6 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week. The FU07 - foreign market 07 spread was - 22.5, down 0.9 from the previous day and 25.6 from the previous week; the LU08 - foreign market 07 spread was 9.6, up 2.5 from the previous day and 1.8 from the previous week [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: High - sulfur Jun/July month - spread decreased from 18.4 to 16.5 US dollars/ton, and low - sulfur Jun/July month - spread decreased from 7.5 to 6.8 US dollars/ton [6]. - **Important Information**: Egypt's EGPC tendered to purchase 1 million tons of HSFO for July loading. The company has already purchased about 2 million tons of HSFO for May and June loading [7]. Third Part: Relevant Drawings The report provides six figures related to Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, including spot discounts, price differences, and cracking spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [11].

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-06 富查伊拉燃料油库存大幅下滑 市场分析 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：关注逢高空FU裂解价差（FU-SC或FU-Brent）的机会，短期支撑偏强，尽量逢高布局 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.1%，报2934元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.63%，报3489 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克会议后强势反弹，短期基本面较为稳固，市场存在一定支撑，但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的 压力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，近日高硫燃料油市场结构有边际转弱的迹象，裂解基差从绝对高位出现一定幅度回落。 但目前来看，市场支撑仍存。随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，或提振亚洲高硫油市场氛围。 参考普式数据，富查伊拉燃料油库存本周录得723.8万桶，环比前一周下跌24.56%。富查伊拉的大幅去库背后，可 能是来自于中东发电厂的采购需求增长。中期来看，由于高硫油裂解价差过高，下游炼厂 ...