今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国政府计划利用五角大楼开发的人工智能 项目，为关键矿产制定参考价格，以支撑其构建全球金属贸易 集团的计划，首批将聚焦锗、镓、锑、钨四种金属，随后将逐 步扩大覆盖范围。评：稀有金属需求持续有支撑，但是白银更 多关注黄金的波动，节假日期间市场风险偏好有所减弱，白银 做多力量小于黄金。关注后续美联储政策预期，白银跟随黄金 被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-黄金】美联储理事库克表示，AI已引发美国劳动力 市场的代际更迭，可能导致失业率上升，美联储可能无法以降 息应对，货币政策可能陷入两难，降息既无法有效应对结构性 失业，又可能推高通胀。评：美联储理事库克及芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比均表示，只是降息不能解决所有问题，市场对降息 预期有所减弱。黄金进一步上涨动力不足，关注美国关税及地 缘扰动，黄金中期或依然高位震荡。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月25日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.c ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that due to oversupply, oil prices may decline by 2026, but geopolitical risks related to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran will continue to increase market volatility [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs maintains its average price forecast for Brent crude and WTI crude at $56 and $52 per barrel respectively for 2026 [1] - The bank expects prices to drop to a low of $54 for Brent and $50 for WTI in the fourth quarter as OECD inventories rise [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil inventories are increasing, with a projected surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [1] - A reduction in oil prices may be necessary to curb supply growth from non-OPEC countries and support strong demand growth, unless there are significant supply disruptions or OPEC cuts [1]

Group 1 - The global financial market is transitioning from an event-driven state to a phase of reassessing existing pricing and consensus confirmation following significant macroeconomic events [1] - Market focus is shifting from "whether to take action" to "whether the policy stance remains restrained" regarding the Federal Reserve, with any statements on inflation resilience or policy patience likely to be magnified by the market [2] - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustment continues to impact the market, with attention on whether the subsequent reactions, such as yen volatility and interest rate changes, will persist [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to exhibit a differentiated performance, with risk assets oscillating between emotional recovery and year-end caution, lacking new variables to drive sustained strength [3] - The foreign exchange market may enter a phase of range trading, with volatility stemming more from capital flows and position adjustments rather than a macro directional shift [3] - Overall, the market is in a rebalancing phase post-major events, with macro uncertainty persisting but the driving forces shifting towards expectation digestion and capital behavior [3]

Group 1 - The market has experienced a comprehensive rise, achieving three consecutive days of gains, indicating a potential stabilization in the market environment [1] - Positive macroeconomic news includes increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a lower-than-expected interest rate hike in Japan, contributing to a warmer macro environment [1] - The market index has returned to a consolidation phase after the recent gains, suggesting a likely continuation of this trend in the absence of significant negative news [1] Group 2 - The market is undergoing a rebalancing, with previously high-performing sectors like technology showing weaker performance, while low-priced stocks are experiencing upward movement [2] - The broad increase in low-priced stocks indicates a recovery phase, suggesting that the market is in a state of correction or rebound from previous declines [2] - For the market to establish a true bottom or sustain significant upward movement, a new leading sector may need to emerge, as the current environment remains in a consolidation phase [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, with a temporary funding bill passed to provide funding until January 30, 2026[2] - Key macroeconomic data releases are anticipated, including the revised Q3 GDP on November 26 and the September non-farm payroll report on November 20[3] - The unemployment rate data for October may be permanently missing due to the government shutdown, but private sector unemployment claims indicate a weakening labor market[3] Group 2: Market Performance - Significant structural rotation was observed in the U.S. stock market, with technology stocks experiencing a short-term pullback while utility, industrial, and consumer staples sectors outperformed[3] - The market rotation has reduced concentration, suggesting that the current adjustment is a healthy correction[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for November is reported at 25.0, exceeding market expectations of 23.5 and the previous month's 22.7, indicating optimism for the next six months[10] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index recorded 98.2 in October, slightly down by 0.6 from the previous month but still above the 52-year average of 98[10] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials suggest that the end of the government shutdown has limited impact on monetary policy, with core PCE inflation trending towards the 2% target[15] - The market is pricing in a delay for the next interest rate cut to January 2026, with three cuts expected throughout the year[19]

Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will lift its cobalt export ban on October 15, 2023, and implement an export quota system starting October 16, allowing over 18,000 tons of cobalt to be exported by the end of the year [1][2] - The DRC is the world's largest cobalt supplier, holding 55% of global cobalt reserves, with a projected production of 22,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 75.86% of global output [2][3] Group 1 - The DRC's new export quota system will allocate 10% of the authorized export volume for 2026 and 2027 to national strategic projects [1] - The DRC aims to balance global cobalt inventory to a level equivalent to one month of demand [2] - Cobalt prices have significantly increased, rising from 169,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of 2025 to 275,000 CNY/ton by September 18, 2025, marking a 62.7% increase [3] Group 2 - The DRC's export ban earlier this year led to a tightening of global cobalt supply, contributing to rising prices driven by increased demand from sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics [3] - Analysts predict a bullish outlook for cobalt prices, with expectations that the price will reach over 350,000 CNY/ton between 2026 and 2027 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is in a range - bound oscillation. The refinery autumn maintenance peak leads to a seasonal decline in demand. With OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen. However, due to geopolitical uncertainties and low actual inventories, the short - term oil price direction is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the market re - balancing stage. The near - end supply is relatively abundant, and the Singapore inventory is at a high level, but the pressure has eased. Egyptian procurement demand continues, with an expected import of 690,000 tons in September, a 260,000 - ton increase from August and basically the same as last year. The power generation consumption peak is ending, providing short - term support but expected to decline in October [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply pressure has increased due to the increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery after its RFCC unit shutdown. However, the West - region arbitrage cargo volume has declined, and domestic production remains low, with no serious oversupply expected. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, with support at the lower valuation but large upward resistance [2]. - The short - term strategy for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is neutral, and the medium - term strategy is downward. There are no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - **Fuel Oil Futures Prices**: The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 2,795 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.25% at 3,395 yuan/ton [1]. - **Crude Oil Situation**: Crude oil prices are in a range - bound oscillation. The refinery autumn maintenance peak causes a seasonal demand decline. With OPEC's continuous production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to loosen. Geopolitical uncertainties and low inventories make the short - term oil price direction unclear [1]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in the market re - balancing stage. Near - end supply is abundant, and Singapore inventory is high but the pressure has eased. Middle - East shipments decreased significantly in September, and Egyptian procurement continues. The power generation consumption peak is ending [1]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supply pressure has increased due to increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery. West - region arbitrage cargo volume has declined, and domestic production remains low. There is no serious oversupply expected, and it has a mild Back structure. In the medium - term, it faces demand substitution and excess capacity issues [2]. Strategy - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3]. - **Other Strategies**: No strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, or options [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential increase in oil production by OPEC, which raises concerns about the dilution of oil's soft power value and the impact on oil prices, leading to a downward trend in international oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: OPEC Production Decisions - OPEC is considering increasing production in July, potentially exceeding the previously set daily increase of 410,000 barrels, which could undermine market trust in supply discipline [4]. - The current oil market appears balanced, but increasing production could lead to a price drop of approximately 10%, with WTI crude potentially falling to between $53 and $55 per barrel [2][4]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks, including those from Russia and Iran, continue to provide some support for oil prices despite the weakening spot market [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Predictions - The global oil surplus has expanded to 2.2 million barrels per day, necessitating price adjustments to stimulate supply responses and restore market balance [2][4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that oil prices may fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year due to the continuous loss of supply soft power and weak demand recovery [1][5]. - The increase in short positions by hedge funds against Brent crude oil indicates a growing market pessimism regarding demand [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-side soft power imbalance and strategic miscalculations are leading to a dilution of oil's value, as OPEC's decision to accelerate production may not align with the weak demand backdrop [4][5]. - Economic pressures, such as weak U.S. GDP data and ongoing trade tensions, are suppressing consumer demand for fuel, contributing to a negative outlook for the demand side [4][5]. - The article highlights the need for OPEC to recalibrate its supply strategy to balance market share protection and price stability, while also addressing demand-side challenges [5].

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the U.S. market in recent years is considered unhealthy, and rebalancing towards European and Asian markets is viewed positively [1] Group 1 - The executive from Nomura Securities emphasizes the need for a shift in focus from the U.S. market to other regions [1] - The statement reflects a broader sentiment regarding market diversification and the potential benefits of investing in Europe and Asia [1]