Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. It is expected to fluctuate this week, with potential for local and差异化 adjustments. The port ship - age limit policy may support the spot and futures markets, but inventory accumulation and arbitrage opportunities limit the upside. Inland, while some traders are more active, high supply and low demand persist, leading to a cautious market sentiment. The price of MA2509 is expected to oscillate between 2260 - 2310 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 are mixed. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory has increased, which is also bullish. The 20 - day line is upward with the price above it, a bullish signal. However, the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate this week [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventory is at a low level. New acetic acid production capacity is coming online, and some northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices like Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE production has declined. Coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, prices in various regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have increased to varying degrees. In the futures market, the closing price decreased slightly, and the basis and import spread have increased. The price difference between regions and the difference between China and Southeast Asia have also changed [8][9][11][25][28]. - **Production profit**: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 46 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol loss decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol profit increased by 323 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 5, 2025, the total social inventory in East and South China ports was 45.84 tons, an increase of 6.4 tons from the previous period. The available circulation volume in coastal areas increased by 4.5 tons to 25.68 tons [5]. - **Traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged. Formaldehyde production is at a loss, and its load increased slightly. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased, and its load increased. Acetic acid production profit decreased, and its load increased. MTO production is at a loss, and its load increased slightly [32][36][39][43][48]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and loss amounts [59]. - **Overseas devices**: Some Iranian devices are in the process of resuming production, and devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are operating normally, while some are under maintenance [60]. - **Olefin devices**: Some olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions are under maintenance, while others are operating stably [61].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2277（+11/+0.49%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1880 元/吨，北线报价 1870 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1880 元/吨，山西地区报价 2020 元/吨，河南地区报价 2090 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，鲁北报价 2150 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2040 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2150 元/吨，云贵报价 2180 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2330 元/吨，宁波报价 2380 元/吨，广州报价 2290 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20250531-20250606）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 975353 吨，较上周增加 29300 吨，装置产能利用率为 66.86%，较上周提升 2.01%。周期内，伊朗 ZPC 重启一条产线， Kimiya 正常运行中，南美、东南亚装置略有波动。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡， ...

甲醇：短期反弹，中期压力仍偏大 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,264 | 2,259 | 5 -133795 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,266 | 2,257 | 9 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 607,691 | 741,486 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 799,644 | 812,450 | -12806 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 4,600 | 4,600 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,376, ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年06月08日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：低位反弹 01 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 综述 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 ➢ 国内现货：本周国内甲醇市场走势有所差异。节后国内甲醇生产企业出货不佳，加之假期期间汽运运力不足，部分甲醇生产企业库 存累库，下调价格积极出货为主，所以内地甲醇价格整体偏弱；沿海甲醇市场受政策类提振，价格低位反弹上行，但涨后出货不佳， 基差有所回落。 (隆众资讯） ➢ 基本面：本周甲醇港口库存如期累库，周期内外轮卸货基本符合预期，显性计入26.35万吨。江苏地区虽有重点下游停车及降负， 但国产船货供应预期减量，沿江主流库区在下游船发支撑下提货稳健；浙江地区刚需稳定，库存无波动。本周华南港口库存窄幅累 库，主要体现在广东地区，周期内进口及内贸船只均补充 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.06.06」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内甲醇市场走势有所差异，部分甲醇生产企业库存累库，下调价格积极出货为 主，内地甲醇价格整体偏弱；沿海甲醇市场受政策类提振，价格低位反弹上行，但涨后出货不佳， 基差有所回落。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能产出量，整体产量小幅增 加。西北产区运力不足，企业发货节奏放缓，本周国内甲醇企业库存继续增加。外轮卸货基本符 合预期，甲醇港口库存如期累库，华东地区部分重点下游停车及降负但沿江主流库区在下游船发 支撑下提货稳健；华南地区进口及内贸船只均补充供应，而主流库区提货受限使得库存呈现累库。 需求方面，宁夏宝丰二期装置重启，山东恒通装置负荷提升，本周国内甲醇制烯烃行业开工率有 所提升。 策略建议： MA2509合约短线预计在2240-2300区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇 ...

市场逻辑： ③ MTO需求有增，但传统需求相对疲软，季节性需求波动及市场谨慎心态仍抑制价格上行高度。 甲醇行业周度报告 [2025年6月5日] 表1 甲醇及相关产品周度价格一览表 | 产品 | 区域/类别 | 本期均值 | 上期均值 | 涨跌值 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上游 | 鄂尔多斯动力煤 | 498 | 494 | 4 | 0.81% | 元/吨 | | | Q5500 | | | | | | | 甲醇 | 太仓 | 2274 | 2255 | 19 | 0.84% | 元/吨 | | | 鄂尔多斯北线 | 1884 | 1931 | -47 | -2.43% | 元/吨 | | 下游 | 华东宁波 PP | 7080 | 7134 | -54 | -0.76% | 元/吨 | | | 华东冰醋酸 | 2475 | 2485 | -9 | -0.36% | 元/吨 | | | 山东甲烷氯化物 | 2264 | 2179 | 85 | 3.90% | 元/吨 | 数据来源：隆众资讯 本期（2025年5月30日-6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. Inland methanol prices were generally weak as methanol producers faced poor sales and inventory accumulation after the holiday, leading them to cut prices to boost sales. Coastal methanol prices rebounded from low levels due to policy support, but sales were poor after the price increase and the basis declined [5]. - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, with 26.35 million tons of external vessel discharges recorded. In Jiangsu, despite some downstream plants shutting down or reducing production, domestic cargo supply was expected to decrease, and inventory at major storage areas along the Yangtze River was stable due to strong downstream demand. In Zhejiang, inventory remained unchanged due to stable demand. In South China, inventory increased slightly, mainly in Guangdong, as both imported and domestic vessels replenished supplies and holiday - related restrictions limited提货. In Fujian, inventory decreased significantly as there were no vessel arrivals and downstream consumption was stable [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,259 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,257 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the trading volume was 741,486 lots, a decrease of 367,579 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 812,450 lots, down 23,148 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the trading volume was 1.673478 billion yuan, a decrease of 819.972 million yuan; the Ganglian basis was 32, down 18; the spread between MA09 and MA01 was - 60, unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,865 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of methanol is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [6]

「 2025.05.30」 甲醇市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内甲醇市场价格延续下跌行情，缺乏明确利好消息指引背景下，顺丁供价大幅 下调但实单成交仍需倒挂。截至5月29日，山东市场大庆BR9000主流价格参考11450元/吨附近， 实单商谈。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能产出量，整体产量小幅增 加。受需求疲弱影响，企业签单不畅，本周内地企业库存有所增加。本周外轮集中卸货，甲醇港 口库存止跌回升，江苏提货明显增加，库存积累有限；浙江刚需稳定，外轮较多卸货供应下库存 积累；华南港口库存呈窄幅去库。需求方面，斯尔邦恢复满负荷运行，西北企业装置运行负荷稍 有调整，本周甲醇制烯烃行业开工率维持增长。 策略建议： MA2509合约短线预计在2170-2240区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇期货价格走势 郑州甲醇期货价格走势 来源：博易 ...

2025 年 05 月 30 日 甲醇：短期震荡，中期趋势仍偏弱 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,218 | 2,206 | 1 2 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,201 | 2,209 | - 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 911,793 | 533,144 | 378649 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 849,416 | 840,031 | 9385 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 1,600 | 1,600 | 0 | | | | 成 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：预计本周国内甲醇市场维持多空交织震荡格局，或呈现区域分化。其中港口市场方面，近期宏观面影响下 期货波动频繁，短期现货交投趋于谨慎，本周进口到货有所提升，供应存增加预期，或压制期现货市场走势，不过连云 港装置计划本周恢复，烯烃刚需托底或有一定支撑，预计本周港口价格仍随期货震荡为主。内地方面，短期开工维持高 位，而传统下游需求淡季下难有提振，叠加港口价格回落传导，价格上行缺乏持续驱动，不过局部企业库存不高，短期 内地企业依据自身供需调整概率大，或震荡为主。需跟进烯烃工厂原料采购招标价及伊朗新增装船动态，另外宏观面 ...