Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for December 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Price Indices - The expected buy price for CEA is 53.45 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 61.65 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 57.55 CNY/ton [1] - The expected buy price for CCER is 59.00 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 69.40 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 64.20 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index for CCER decreased by 1.12% to 148.32, while the sell price index increased by 1.80% to 166.95 [1] Group 2: Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.31 CNY/unit, with a price index of 78.36 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from distributed projects is 4.39 CNY/unit, with a price index of 89.07 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from biomass power generation is 3.53 CNY/unit, with a price index of 68.41 [2] Group 3: Carbon Market Performance - In November, the average closing price for CEA was 59.87 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 11% compared to October's average of 53.94 CNY/ton [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in November was 236.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.38% from October's 244.49 million tons [2] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step in carbon market management [3] - By 2027, additional industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking will be included in the carbon market, covering approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [3] Group 5: Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market showed overall recovery in trading volume, although the Korean carbon market experienced a notable decline [4] - Major global carbon markets generally saw price fluctuations, with mixed results in trading prices month-over-month [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report is bullish on EUA, with a signal strength of 2 today (0 for empty position, ±1 for slightly bullish/bearish, ±2 for bullish/bearish). There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the EU ETS quota benchmark value may be significantly lowered based on the CBAM benchmark value, tightening the carbon market supply. The bearish factors include a small reduction of about 930,000 tons in the long positions of investment funds in EUA according to the latest CoT report, and the "US-Russia peace plan" indicating that Russia will be able to export more natural gas [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price was 81.51 euros/ton (0.39% change), and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67. On November 26, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 81.51 euros/ton, the EUA auction price was 80.59 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 2.1625 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.67, and the auction revenue was 176.27 million euros [2][4]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 81.68 euros/ton (-0.23%), and the trading volume was 46,700 lots (0.15 change). The spot settlement price was 81.58 euros/ton (-0.22%), and the spot trading volume was 1,680 lots [2][5]. Strategy - The signal strength today is 2, indicating a bullish stance [2]. Core Logic - **Bullish Factor**: Based on the CBAM benchmark value, the EU ETS quota benchmark value may be significantly lowered, leading to a further tightening of the carbon market supply [2]. - **Bearish Factors**: (1) The latest CoT report shows that investment funds slightly reduced their long positions in EUA by about 930,000 tons; (2) The "US - Russia peace plan" indicates that Russia will be able to export more natural gas [2]. - **Other Information**: (1) As of November 22, EU underground gas storage was about 79%, lower than the 5 - year seasonal average for the same period and significantly lower than 88.3% in the same period last year, with a thinner winter buffer. It continued to decline in the past week. (2) The natural gas plant maintenance in the North Sea and the Norwegian side is mainly planned, and the unplanned event of the UK TGPP from November 23 for about 4 days has limited systematic impact on the supply to the European continent [2][3].

Core Insights - The national carbon market's comprehensive price on November 28 was 59.65 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.93% from the previous day [1][3] - The total transaction volume for carbon emission allowances today was 2,183,525 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 131.1 million yuan [1][6] - Cumulative transaction volume from January 1 to November 28, 2025, reached 187,414,557 tons, with a total value of approximately 11.54 billion yuan [7][11] - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the national carbon market was 817,683,221 tons, with a total value of approximately 54.58 billion yuan [8][11] Daily Trading Summary - Today's opening price was 60.11 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 60.11 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 58.80 yuan/ton [1][3] - The trading volume for the day included 684,373 tons in the listed agreement trading and 1,499,152 tons in bulk agreement trading [1][5] - There were no single-direction auctions conducted today [1][5] Weekly Overview - The weekly comprehensive price range was between 65.42 yuan/ton (highest) and 58.80 yuan/ton (lowest), with a closing price drop of 8.61% compared to the previous Friday [4][10] - The total weekly transaction volume was 10,048,199 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 585.29 million yuan [6][11] Monthly Performance - The monthly comprehensive price range recorded a highest price of 70.14 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 51.54 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 14.80% compared to the last trading day of the previous month [11][12] - The total monthly transaction volume was 47,753,225 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 2.76 billion yuan [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall fundamentals and performance of the building materials sector have shown signs of recovery [2]. - The real estate market is currently under pressure, with significant declines in sales and prices, but there is potential for policy support to stabilize the market [5][26]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on high leverage and turnover to an emphasis on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential [5][26]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Overview - As of October 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,268 CNY/sqm, down 0.84% month-on-month and 7.60% year-on-year [5][26]. - New residential properties averaged 16,973 CNY/sqm, up 0.28% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year [5][26]. - Cumulative sales area of commercial housing fell by 6.8% year-on-year, with a 9.6% decline in sales value [5][26]. - The industry is in a "bottoming" phase, with expectations for policy measures to support recovery [5][26]. Building Materials Sector Overview - The cement industry is now included in the national carbon market, with companies over 2.6 million tons of CO₂ equivalent subject to quota management [5][45]. - The overall revenue of the cement industry is under pressure, but profitability is improving, particularly for leading companies [5][45]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing structural recovery, with supply constraints expected to improve competition in the long term [5][46]. - The building materials sector is currently at historical low valuations, with some stocks offering attractive dividend yields [5][45]. Recommendations - For the real estate sector, companies such as Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) are favored due to their stable operations and focus on first- and second-tier cities [5][26]. - In the building materials sector, companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) are recommended for their strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [5][45]. - For glass fiber, China Jushi (600176) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to its recovery in profitability [5][46].

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China reported a closing price of 60.21 yuan per ton on November 27, 2023, reflecting a 1.02% increase from the previous day [1][2] Trading Volume and Revenue - Today's total trading volume for carbon emission allowances reached 3,050,628 tons, with a total transaction value of 173,480,350.32 yuan [1] - The volume for the day included 938,054 tons from listed agreement trading and 2,112,574 tons from bulk agreement trading [1] Cumulative Data - From January 1 to November 27, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances was 185,231,032 tons, with a total transaction value of 11,411,665,579.55 yuan [1] - As of November 27, 2025, the total cumulative trading volume reached 815,499,696 tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 54,444,392,683.06 yuan [1]

Core Points - The establishment of the "Open Alliance for Carbon Emission Trading Markets" by China, the EU, and Brazil aims to enhance international cooperation in carbon markets, creating a framework for coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms and emission trading systems globally [1][3] - The alliance reflects a collaboration between developed and developing countries, with the EU bringing experience and technology, while China contributes its advancements in renewable energy and green finance [1][3] - The global carbon market is expected to evolve gradually, with the need for unified standards and mechanisms to facilitate cooperation among different carbon pricing systems [6][7] Group 1: Alliance Formation - The alliance aims to create a transparent and credible global compliance carbon market network [1] - It includes both traditional carbon market leaders and emerging market representatives, indicating a bridging cooperation trend [3] - The establishment of the alliance is seen as a positive signal for future climate finance support for emerging markets [3] Group 2: Global Carbon Market Developments - The COP29 conference marked a significant breakthrough in reaching consensus on carbon credit creation standards under the Paris Agreement [2] - The UNFCCC is working on developing approximately 19 methodologies for the Paris Agreement Carbon Credit Mechanism (PACM), with several expected to be approved by mid-2026 [3] - The global carbon market is characterized by significant differences in national economic development stages, energy structures, and emission reduction costs, complicating the establishment of a unified market [5] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The global carbon market allows countries with high reduction costs to trade, enhancing their motivation to reduce emissions while providing financial support to low-income countries [4] - However, the construction of a truly unified global carbon market faces challenges due to the diverse national circumstances and existing carbon pricing tools [5] - Experts emphasize the importance of gradual progress and the need for flexibility in standards to accommodate the varying capabilities of developing countries [7] Group 4: China's Role - China is viewed as a key player in the alliance, leveraging its strengths in renewable energy and cross-border cooperation to connect developed and developing nations [8] - The country is expected to contribute to a governance system that integrates policy, technology, and capital for effective climate governance [8] - The alliance represents a critical step towards interconnected global carbon markets, with the real test lying in the implementation of detailed rules [8]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China experienced a decline in prices, with the closing price at 62.53 yuan per ton, down 4.20% from the previous day [1][2][3] - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances today was 782,110 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 45.68 million yuan [1][3] - Cumulatively, from January 1 to November 24, 2025, the carbon market has seen a total trading volume of 178,148,468 tons and a total transaction value of approximately 11 billion yuan [1] Daily Trading Summary - Opening price was 65.02 yuan per ton, with a highest price of 65.42 yuan and a lowest price of 62.24 yuan [2] - The trading volume for the day included 582,110 tons from listed agreements and 200,000 tons from bulk agreements [1][3] - No single-direction bidding occurred today [1] Cumulative Trading Data - As of November 24, 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market reached 808,417,132 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 54.04 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article announces the release of three methodologies for voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction projects, aimed at encouraging broader participation from industries and enterprises in emission reduction actions, in line with national climate change strategies [2]. Group 1: Methodologies Released - The methodologies include: 1. CCER-10-002-V01: Utilization of associated gas recovery in offshore oil fields 2. CCER-10-003-V01: Utilization of gas recovery from trial gas flaring in onshore gas fields 3. CCER-10-004-V01: Utilization of low gas volume associated gas recovery in onshore oil fields [2]. Group 2: Principles and Guidelines - The article emphasizes the principles of integrity and voluntariness, encouraging local ecological and energy authorities to support eligible projects in participating in the national voluntary emission reduction trading market and obtaining emission reduction benefits [3]. - It highlights the importance of information transparency, requiring project owners to share monitoring data with the national carbon market management platform and to make this data publicly available through official channels [3]. - The article calls for strengthened supervision during and after project implementation, with local authorities conducting inspections on registered projects and addressing public reports regarding the authenticity and compliance of emission reductions [3]. Group 3: Implementation and Contacts - The notification is effective immediately upon issuance [4]. - Contact information for relevant personnel and departments is provided for further inquiries regarding the methodologies and project implementation [5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbon Market Weekly Report - Date: November 21, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of the carbon market, with policies aiming to expand coverage, control quota总量, and increase market vitality [9][10] - The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market will gradually cover major industrial emission - intensive industries by 2027, marking a new stage in using market - based mechanisms for deep - emission reduction [10] Summary by Directory 1. Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of different trading methods were also reported [7] - In the 3rd week of November, the national carbon market quota had a high of 70.14 yuan/ton, a low of 60.02 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 65.27 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 8.48%. The total trading volume was 1169.44 million tons, and the total turnover was 701.0284 million yuan. Price expectations for November and December 2025 were also given [8] 2. Market News - The central government issued an opinion to expand the carbon market's coverage, implement quota总量 control and paid distribution, and improve market vitality [9] - China's carbon market construction aligns with the "dual - carbon" goal, and will gradually implement quota总量 control and paid distribution as the carbon - peak process advances [10] - The expansion schedule of the national carbon emissions trading market was announced, with major industrial sectors to be included by 2027, covering about 75% of CO2 emissions [10] - The "Chengdu Declaration" at the 2025 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference called for anti - "involution" in the industry and promoted high - quality development [10]

Core Insights - The national carbon market's comprehensive price on November 21 was 65.27 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.83% from the previous day [1][4] - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances on this day was 600,242 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 37.63 million yuan [1] - Cumulatively, from January 1 to November 21, 2025, the carbon market recorded a total trading volume of 177,366,358 tons and a total transaction value of approximately 10.96 billion yuan [1] Price Summary - Opening price: 67.00 yuan/ton [4] - Highest price: 67.87 yuan/ton [4] - Lowest price: 65.13 yuan/ton [4] - Closing price: 65.27 yuan/ton [4] - Daily price change: -3.83% [4] Trading Volume and Value - Today's agreement trading volume: 400,242 tons, with a transaction value of approximately 25.51 million yuan [1] - Today's bulk agreement trading volume: 200,000 tons, with a transaction value of approximately 12.12 million yuan [1] - Total cumulative trading volume as of November 21, 2025: 807,635,022 tons, with a cumulative transaction value of approximately 53.99 billion yuan [1]