今年前五个月，美元累计下跌8.4%，创下兑一篮子全球货币的有史以来最差"开年表现"。美元后续该如 何走？知名经济学家Robin Brooks详细分析了市场当前正在激烈辩论的三种假设。 在6日10日发表的一篇题为《围绕美元的意志之战》分析文章中，前国际金融协会首席经济学家、现美 国智库布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Robin Brooks认为，针对美元持续走软现象，市场的激烈辩论并非毫无 头绪的口水战，而是围绕着三个核心的"假设"展开： 第一种是最温和的，认为这只是暂时的周期性回调；第二种则比较令人忧虑，担心美联储的 独立性可能动摇；而第三种则是最极端的，认为美元的全球储备货币地位将不保。 Brooks认为，当前围绕美元方向的辩论主要集中在两种假设之间，预测美元仍处于可能持续数十年的多 周期强化进程中。 美元下跌的真实幅度：数据胜过恐慌 许多人对美元近期走势的担忧可能被夸大了。他认为，"多年来，美元首次经历持续下跌"，这种不寻常 的现象引发了各种过度解读和夸大其词的分析。 Brooks通过具体数据为读者厘清了现实情况：自11月5日大选以来，美元兑其他发达经济体货币仅下跌 4%，而兑新兴市场货币篮子基本持平。 Brook ...

英国央行行长贝利：美元失去储备货币地位将会对市场造成不稳定，不认为这种情况会发生。 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that Elon Musk and DOGE have reportedly prevented the theft of $175 billion from American taxpayers, which was allegedly funneled to fraudulent companies benefiting political allies [2] - The article emphasizes the contrast between Trump's military spending and his portrayal as a peace president, suggesting that internal and external threats are manipulated for political gain [3] - It argues that as long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency, the U.S. deficit is not a significant issue, as foreign central banks are happy to hold U.S. debt [4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the real danger to U.S. debt financing comes from sanctions, which have led to the rise of BRICS nations seeking alternatives to the dollar [5] - It warns that losing the status of the world's reserve currency could have catastrophic consequences, drawing a parallel to the decline of Britain post-World War II [6]

Core Insights - The majority of indicators suggest that long-term inflation expectations are anchored [1] - The status of the US dollar as a reserve currency provides significant benefits to the United States [1]

英国央行行长贝利：询问美元是否仍将作为储备货币并无太大意义，未来可能会出现一些调整，但离美 元失去其地位还为时尚早。 ...

Group 1 - The former Bank of Japan official Sayuri Shirai stated that Japan is unlikely to sell its substantial U.S. Treasury holdings due to the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [1] - Japan and China are the two largest holders of U.S. Treasuries, and their actions are closely monitored, especially during times of rising U.S. Treasury yields [1] - Shirai emphasized that Japan has no other viable investment options, reinforcing the dollar's unshakeable position as a reserve currency due to the depth of U.S. capital markets and the country's technological competitiveness [1] Group 2 - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde suggested that the euro could potentially rival the dollar if Eurozone governments strengthen their financial and security frameworks [2] - Shirai expressed skepticism about the euro's ability to replace the dollar, citing political divisions in Europe and insufficient depth in the region's capital markets [2] - In Asia, Shirai believes the renminbi is more likely to emerge as a potential competitor to the dollar, as China increases the use of its currency in trade [2] - The dollar's share in international reserves has been on a declining trend, currently at 58%, the lowest in decades, while the euro holds 20%, and the renminbi accounts for 2% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is facing downward pressure due to concerns over tariffs, recession risks, and unsustainable fiscal policies, despite its status as the world's reserve currency appearing secure for now [1][2] - Analysts from Bank of America suggest that the dollar may continue to weaken, as it is currently "overvalued" compared to other widely traded currencies, and the ongoing tariff situation is likely to lead to price increases and economic slowdown [1] - The ICE dollar index has declined nearly 4% since the announcement of tariffs on April 2, indicating a significant impact on the dollar's value [1] Group 2 - Dario Perkins from TS Lombard notes that the historical dominance of the dollar as a reserve currency began in 1944 with the Bretton Woods Agreement, which linked currencies to the dollar and the dollar to gold [2] - Perkins argues that despite the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar has maintained its position in the international monetary system, as global demand for dollar-denominated assets remains strong [2] - The current US administration appears to view the dollar's reserve status as a burden, which Perkins believes is a fundamental misunderstanding of how dollar hegemony operates [2][3] Group 3 - Perkins predicts that the current administration's actions may lead to a weaker dollar, which could inadvertently strengthen other economies [3] - He emphasizes that while the dollar's reserve currency status will not be lost immediately, the era of US exceptionalism is over, and the dollar's exchange rate is on a downward trend [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining for the second consecutive trading day, down 89.37 points or 0.21% to 42051.06 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 136.73 points or 0.72% to 19146.81 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 6.03 points or 0.1% to 5892.58 points [1] - Notable stock movements included Tesla rising 4% for six consecutive trading days, Google A increasing by 3.6%, and Nvidia gaining 4% with a weekly increase of 16% [1] European Market - European indices experienced declines, with Germany's DAX30 down 100.14 points or 0.42% to 23519.45 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 21.07 points or 0.24% to 8581.85 points [1] - The French CAC40 index fell by 37.04 points or 0.47% to 7836.79 points, while the Spanish IBEX35 rose by 70.67 points or 0.51% to 13842.27 points [1] Asian Market - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.14%, while the KOSPI index in South Korea rose over 1.2% and the Indonesian Composite Index increased by over 2% [2] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.03% to 101.037, with fluctuations against major currencies including the euro and the British pound [2] - Spot gold fell by 2.14% to $3180.90 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.91% to $3185.70 per ounce [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.8% to approximately $63 per barrel, ending a four-day increase [3] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin declined by 0.59% to $103,561.4, while Ethereum dropped over 3% to $2,595.77 [3] Macro News - The U.S. and Qatar signed economic and military cooperation agreements valued at over $243.5 billion, including significant purchases from Boeing and defense contracts [4] - OPEC+ members increased oil production by only 25,000 barrels per day in April, significantly below the planned increase of 138,000 barrels per day [4] Company News - Apple is developing a groundbreaking eye-tracking feature for its Vision Pro headset, which will allow users to scroll through interfaces using eye movements [7] - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in Alibaba by over 540,000 shares, marking a 21-fold increase, and also built positions in JD.com and gold ETFs [8]

三菱日联：美元离失去储备货币地位还有很长的路要走 金十数据5月14日讯，三菱日联分析师德里克·哈尔潘尼在一份报告中说，美元不太可能在短期内失去世 界储备货币的地位。"当然有美元长期贬值的例子，但这并不一定意味着美元的储备货币地位正在丧 失。"不过，他表示，美元在外汇储备中的占比未来可能会继续逐步下降。美元贬值以及亚洲各国央行 因美国的反对而减少买入美元进行干预，强化了这种前景。美元仍然有足够的空间贬值，同时不必认为 其储备货币地位会受到威胁。 ...

高盛CEO所罗门：美元不太可能失去储备货币地位。 ...