Core Insights - Trump's diplomatic strategy appears to be entering a new phase, focusing on Brazil and India after reaching a substantial framework agreement with China [1][3] - The recent U.S.-China framework agreement, which includes a halt on additional tariffs, is seen as a significant diplomatic victory for Trump [3][8] - Trump's approach has shifted from confrontation to cooperation, aiming to maximize U.S. interests through strategic negotiations with key global players [3][6] U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has decided not to impose a 100% tariff, marking a pivotal moment in U.S.-China trade relations [3] - The focus on rare earths and soybeans highlights the interdependence between the U.S. and China, particularly in agriculture and high-tech sectors [3][6] - The agreement signifies a strategic adjustment in Trump's economic policy, moving towards a more conciliatory approach [3][8] U.S.-Brazil Relations - Brazil's trade relationship with the U.S. has been strained due to a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, impacting key exports like beef and coffee [5][6] - Brazilian President Lula's statement about quickly reaching an agreement with the U.S. reflects the urgency of improving Brazil's economic situation [5] - Trump's willingness to pause tariffs and engage in bilateral talks indicates a strategic shift to strengthen ties with Brazil, recognizing its geopolitical significance [5][6] U.S.-India Relations - India faces significant trade challenges, including a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S., particularly affecting its energy imports from Russia [6] - Indian private refiners are shifting away from Russian oil, which could enhance U.S.-India trade relations [6] - The importance of maintaining a strong partnership with the U.S. is critical for India's economic development and international standing [6][8] Overall Diplomatic Strategy - Trump's strategy involves a systematic approach to negotiations, starting with China and then addressing other countries like Brazil and India [6][8] - The success of these diplomatic efforts will depend on the ability to establish and maintain U.S. dominance in the global economy [8] - The potential agreements with Brazil and India could reshape global trade dynamics and prompt other nations to adjust their strategies in response to U.S. pressure [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market maintained a strong oscillation pattern in the morning but saw major indices decline after noon, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking below the 4000-point mark [2] - Despite the decline, trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased, indicating strong support at lower levels [2] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong showed signs of recovery after the A-share market closed, suggesting sustained investment confidence in Chinese assets [2][5] Short-term Trading Catalysts - Three clear short-term trading catalysts were identified: 1. Trade negotiations have shown signs of resolution, leading to profit-taking among investors [2] 2. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts has become clearer, with indications that a new round of cuts is not imminent, prompting profit-taking [2] 3. Third-quarter earnings reports are becoming clearer, particularly for key companies, leading to increased profit-taking [2] Sector Performance - AI hardware sector stocks, particularly in the CPO field, experienced weak performance, indicating that momentum investors began to sell off [3] - The innovative drug sector also faced downward pressure as the narrative around sustained Fed rate cuts weakened, leading to increased selling pressure [3] - Despite the pressure on certain sectors, insurance and lithium battery stocks remained strong, helping to maintain index strength [3] New Narratives and Future Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index's drop below 4000 points highlights its significance as a psychological barrier, suggesting ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears [4] - The Hang Seng Index's recovery and significant inflow of southbound capital (over 12 billion HKD) indicate strong attractiveness of Chinese assets [5] - Emerging narratives, such as the U.S. "G2" relationship and China's new energy system initiatives, are expected to provide new catalysts for growth in related sectors [5] - Despite some underperformance in the AI sector, improvements in resource, chemical, and food and beverage sectors suggest a solid foundation for the A-share market [5]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect U.S. soybean meal export net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year to range between 50,000 to 500,000 tons by the week ending October 23, 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Data - On October 29, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills nationwide was 53,500 tons, a decrease of 59,900 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions also at 53,500 tons [1] - As of October 26, the EU's soybean meal import volume reached 5.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that the soybean import volume from May to September this year exceeded historical levels, leading to high domestic soybean inventory, which is pressuring spot prices. The expected import volume for the fourth quarter remains ample, contributing to this pressure. Despite the high inventory, the cost support for soybean meal limits downward movement, with uncertainties regarding U.S. soybean imports being a key factor for short-term market fluctuations [2] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that preliminary agreements from U.S.-China-Malaysia talks have led to a strong performance in U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean procurement for the near term is nearly complete, with sufficient inventory. The market is awaiting specific measures from upcoming high-level talks, with short-term soybean meal prices expected to follow U.S. soybean trends while maintaining a bottoming pattern in the medium to long term. The recommendation is to remain cautious for now [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the recent trade agreement between the United States and South Korea, which involves significant investments and tariff adjustments [2] - South Korea will invest $150 billion in shipbuilding and will make a phased cash investment of $200 billion as part of a total investment of $350 billion in the U.S. [2] - The U.S. will maintain a 15% comprehensive tariff on South Korea, while reducing auto tariffs to 15% and granting South Korea most-favored-nation status on drug tariffs [2] Group 2 - The current trading range for gold T+D is between 890-940 yuan per gram, with a key resistance level at 1000 yuan per gram [3] - If gold prices break above 1000 yuan per gram, they may rise to 1010 yuan; conversely, if they fall below 890 yuan per gram, further declines are expected [3] - The gold T+D market is currently experiencing a short-term oscillating trend, with recent prices around 897.86 yuan per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.71% [1]

Core Insights - Recent negotiations between China and the U.S. on trade issues have shown positive progress, particularly regarding soybean imports [1][3] - There is no official agreement yet on the specifics of resuming soybean imports, but indications suggest that China may restart purchases from the U.S. [3][4] Soybean Import Dynamics - China has historically been the largest importer of soybeans, with annual imports exceeding 100 million tons [3] - Due to tariffs imposed by the U.S., the cost of importing soybeans from the U.S. has significantly increased, leading to a reduction in imports, with a complete halt expected by September 2025 [4][7] - The U.S. soybean farmers have been adversely affected by the loss of the Chinese market, with a significant portion of their production reliant on exports [4][5] Current Import Statistics - From January to September 2023, China imported 86.18 million tons of soybeans, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, with 74% of these imports coming from Brazil [9] - The price of Brazilian soybeans has risen, with prices at the Port of Paranaguá increasing from 130.83 BRL (approximately $22.94) in February to 138.77 BRL (approximately $25.67) in October, marking a 6% increase [9][10] Price Comparison - In 2023, the cost of soybeans imported from Brazil was approximately 4,129.4 CNY per ton, while from the U.S. it was about 4,478.3 CNY per ton, indicating a price difference of around 8.5% [11] - Despite the price increase of Brazilian soybeans, they remain cheaper than U.S. soybeans due to lower transportation costs [11] Future Outlook - Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 170 million tons in 2025, which could meet China's demand [11] - Chinese importers have paused purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January, possibly to maintain leverage in negotiations with the U.S. [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]

特朗普：当前外交重点是与中国的贸易谈判，可能很快会重返亚洲与金正恩会面。 ...

Market Overview - Global risk assets experienced a pause in their upward momentum, with major stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region collectively declining, followed by a lower opening for European indices [1][2][3] - The decline in stock markets is attributed to short-term profit-taking after significant gains that led to historical highs on October 27 [1][3] Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices saw a substantial drop, with spot gold falling over 2% and briefly dipping below $3900 per ounce, while silver dropped nearly 2% [1][3] - Analysts from Heraeus indicated that the adjustment in precious metal prices could last for several months, although they expect a potential continuation of the upward trend if investor interest remains strong [4][5] Investment Demand for Gold - Despite recent price declines, global retail demand for gold remains robust, and the growth rate of gold holdings in ETFs has not shown significant decline, indicating sustained investor interest [5][6] - Analysts predict that the average gold price could rise to around $4560 per ounce next year, reflecting a 33% increase from the average price since the beginning of the year [6] Future Price Projections - Metals Focus analysts believe that ongoing economic uncertainty will continue to support gold prices, with trade policy and its global economic impact being key drivers [5][6] - Morgan Stanley's commodity strategy head anticipates that gold prices could exceed $5000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, driven by sustained demand from investors and central banks [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing easing of trade tensions has led to a decline in safe-haven demand, causing spot gold prices to drop below $3900 per ounce, marking a significant decrease from recent highs [1][2]. Price Movements - Spot gold prices fell below the $4000 mark on Monday and subsequently dropped over $120 in a single day, with a daily decline exceeding 2% [1][2]. - Citigroup has revised its short-term price targets for gold and silver, lowering the gold price expectation from $4000 to $3800 per ounce and silver from $55 to $42 per ounce due to changes in the global market environment [2]. Market Dynamics - Factors contributing to the price adjustments include U.S. trade negotiations with several countries, which have reduced market uncertainty, and expectations of a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown [2][5]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by 51% due to geopolitical uncertainties, interest rate cut expectations, and central bank purchases, although prices have retreated by 10% from the historical high of $4381.21 per ounce reached on October 20 [2]. Long-term Outlook - Citigroup suggests that concerns driving gold prices higher may need to become a baseline scenario to sustain the current bull market until 2026, while the logic of holding gold as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks remains strong in the medium to long term [3]. Market Sentiment - There is significant divergence in market opinions regarding the bottom for gold prices, with some analysts suggesting tactical buying after a pullback [4]. - Central bank demand for gold is reportedly weaker than before, with some traders welcoming deeper price corrections as potential buying opportunities [4]. Federal Reserve Influence - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut expected [4][5]. - The ongoing government shutdown has added uncertainty to the Fed's decision-making process, affecting the release of key economic data [5]. Leadership Changes - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is under scrutiny, with a shortlist of candidates that could influence future monetary policy directions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions has alleviated market concerns, leading to a decline in gold prices as risk aversion diminishes. The market is preparing for a series of earnings reports from major tech companies and policy statements from global central banks, causing a pause in the record rally of major global stock markets [1]. Market Trends - U.S. stock index futures are collectively down, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.05%. The Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.02%, and the Dow Jones futures also fell by 0.02% [2][3]. - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.3%, the German DAX index down 0.2%, and the French CAC 40 index down 0.4%. The UK FTSE 100 index saw a slight increase of 0.15% [3]. - Asian stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the South Korean Composite Stock Price Index down 0.8% and the Nikkei 225 index down 0.24% [3]. Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.13%, settling at 98.7, while the Japanese yen strengthened, reaching an intra-day high of 151.95 against the dollar, up 0.6% [2][3]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 1 basis point to 3.97% [3]. - Spot gold prices fell over 1.1%, currently at $3,934 per ounce, following a previous peak of $4,380 per ounce. Analysts predict that gold prices may drop to $3,800 per ounce in the next three months due to changing market dynamics and potential trade agreements [6].