Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, concerns about government fiscal conditions have intensified, leading to multi - year high yields on UK and French government bonds, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rebound in the US dollar. The global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US and the increased expectation of US monetary easing have reduced short - term external risks and increased domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. [2] - For different assets: the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised; the black commodity sector is expected to be slightly weaker in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; the energy and chemical sector is expected to rebound in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, concerns about government finances have led to high bond yields in the UK and France, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rise in the US dollar. A US federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs and the assessment of Trump's tariff policy have cooled global risk appetite. In China, the August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. [2] - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as communications, electronics, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. Policy support and reduced external risks have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] - **Government Bonds**: Government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised. [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak on Tuesday, with a slight increase in trading volume. Real - world demand continued to weaken, but there may be a seasonal improvement in September - October. Supply remained high, with the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in August at 2.115 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase, and a 4% increase in steel inventories. Although supply may decline temporarily due to production restrictions, steel mills are likely to resume production next week. Coke price increases were blocked and instead decreased. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, and the futures price oscillated. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand decreased, and they mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. Last week, the pig iron output was over 2.4 million tons but decreased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The supply of mainstream Australian powder was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. The port inventory decreased slightly by 120,000 tons. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices were weak. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with new high - silicon production this month and planned new capacity in October. Ningxia's production was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon iron profits were compressed, electricity costs provided support, and producers were reluctant to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. Last week, the weekly production of soda ash decreased. With new capacity coming online, supply pressure remained, and the oversupply situation persisted, with new installations planned for the fourth quarter. Demand was stable week - on - week, but overall support from downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week, and the industry was in a loss. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [8] - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the main glass contract oscillated. Last week, glass production was stable, with an increase in the start - up rate and the number of production lines. Terminal real estate demand remained weak, but downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand was stable. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term due to stable supply and limited demand growth. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Tuesday, concerns about the UK economy and rising global bond yields led to a rise in the UK's long - term borrowing costs and a fall in the pound against the US dollar. With the decline of factors such as export rush, over - installation in the photovoltaic industry, and the diminishing marginal effect of the trade - in policy, domestic copper demand will weaken. However, the expected Fed rate cut in September may boost copper prices temporarily. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of aluminum rose slightly but fell slightly at the end of the session, with a decrease in open interest of 7,398 lots. Aluminum inventory increased to 623,000 tons, exceeding the previous expectation of 600,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,450 tons, reaching a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside potential of aluminum prices is limited, but in the short term, there is still a peak - season expectation, and there is no strong downward driver, so it is expected to oscillate. The recent rise in gold prices may have a limited positive impact on copper and aluminum prices. [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing slowly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. [10] - **Tin**: The combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some smelters in Yunnan were under maintenance, and the supply of tin ore was tight in reality but expected to ease. The import of African tin ore decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. Terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9,161 tons last week. As prices rose, downstream procurement slowed down. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 fell 4.3% to a settlement price of 74,180 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest of 19,567 lots to a total of 761,400 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,250 yuan/ton, a 1,750 - yuan decrease. The price of Australian lithium spodumene was 860 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease. The production profit of purchasing lithium spodumene was 50 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract 2511 rose 1.13% to a settlement price of 8,515 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 12,531 lots to 491,200 lots. The price of oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The futures price was at a discount of 630 yuan/ton. The price difference between 421 and 553 in East China was 300 yuan/ton. With polysilicon prices oscillating at a high level, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 rose 3.97% to a settlement price of 51,985 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 8,457 lots to 318,000 lots. The price of N - type polysilicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, a 1,000 - yuan increase. The price of P - type cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of N - type silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece, a 0.01 - yuan increase. The price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) was 0.292 yuan/watt, unchanged. The price of N - type modules (centralized): 182mm was 0.66 yuan/watt, unchanged. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870, a decrease of 10 lots. Rumors of a "industry restructuring plan" by GCL Technology have increased market expectations of capacity integration. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Technical buying and supply disruptions drove the rebound of crude oil prices, with the largest increase since the end of July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have affected crude oil supply, and the US will study sanctions on Russia this week. The Cushing inventory is still low. However, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production decision this Sunday. [14][15] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt futures price also increases, driven by cost factors in the short term. Currently, asphalt is still weak, with a slightly decreasing basis. The social inventory has not decreased significantly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. Profits have recovered slightly, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and the follow - up increase of asphalt prices needs to be monitored. [15] - **PX**: Although crude oil prices are rising, the increase in downstream petrochemical products is limited. The low start - up rate of PTA has kept the PX price weak, supported only by maintenance plans. The PX supply is still tight, with the PXN spread decreasing slightly to 251 US dollars and the PX foreign price rebounding to 848 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA installations. [15] - **PTA**: Recently, the start - up rate of PTA has dropped to a seasonal low due to environmental protection requirements and low processing fees. The high basis has weakened, and the processing fee has recovered, indicating a high possibility of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed down, with a downstream start - up rate of only 89.8%. PTA is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand. [16] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to problems with overseas installations, the import forecast has been low recently, leading to a significant decrease in port inventory to 440,000 tons. The load of syngas - based production units is already high, and there is limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry's capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is relatively limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream start - up rates and crude oil cost fluctuations. [16] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose with the sector but then declined slightly. The overall strength of the polyester sector is still insufficient. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and the start - up rate of short - fiber has rebounded slightly, with a limited increase in inventory. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous recovery of terminal orders. In the medium term, short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies. [16] - **Methanol**: The restart of inland installations and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. As the port price falls, the reflux window has opened, providing some support to the spot market. MTO installations are planned to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching, indicating a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [17] - **PP**: The start - up rate of PP installations has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, resulting in a record - high weekly supply. The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but demand growth is weak. Although there is policy support, the downside is limited. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [17] - **LLDPE**: Currently, maintenance has relieved some supply pressure, and downstream demand is gradually increasing, with a decrease in inventory. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as maintenance ends and supply recovers, pressure will increase, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The price is expected to oscillate. [17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1,040.00, a decrease of 14.50 or 1.38% (settlement price: 1,041.00). As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The pod - setting rate was 94%, and the leaf - falling rate was 11%. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans as of August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons, higher than the market expectation. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume has reached 49.763188 million tons, higher than the same period last year. [19] - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, the increase in imported soybean sales and the high procurement and start - up rate of oilseeds in the third quarter have increased the inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The rapeseed meal market is also weak, and attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada. [20] - **Oils**: Overnight, the CBOT soybean oil futures price rose by 1% due to the decline in soybean oil inventory. The BMD palm oil futures price may open higher, supported by strong palm oil exports from Malaysia and a weakening ringgit. According to high - frequency data, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) and 30.53% (SGS) in August 2025 compared with the same period last year. Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, and the tax rate will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. [20] - **Corn**: New - season corn has started to be harvested in Liaoning, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The futures market has rebounded recently, which is beneficial to market sentiment. This year, there is no pressure from a large - scale arrival of corn at ports, and the inventory at ports and downstream enterprises is low. The estimated cost of new - season corn in North China is 1,960 - 2,020 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it is at least 2,100 yuan/ton. Referring to the policy - supported wheat market, it is expected that during the new - season corn harvest period, farmers will be reluctant to sell when the price in North China is below 2,220 yuan/ton and in the northern ports is below 2,130 yuan/ton, and traders will be more willing to store corn. It is estimated that the opening price of the main C2511 contract may be slightly higher than last year, and if there are no unexpected weather risks during the harvest, the main operating range of the opening - price market may be 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton. [21] - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. In August, large - scale farms increased pre

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the supply - side pressure persists due to the expected high yield of US soybeans, but the reduction in planting area supports the price. In China, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts rapeseed meal consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The implementation of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada and China - US trade negotiations [2]. - For rapeseed oil, concerns about palm oil production and transportation in Indonesia and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil support the palm oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain the price. The low - level operation of oil mills reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter ease the supply - side pressure. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken the long - term supply. The rapeseed oil market has been fluctuating narrowly recently, and the focus is on trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil active contract is 9766 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.8 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 4711 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. - Monthly spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 169 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 106 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 258,258 lots, down 5291 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 398,350 lots, down 5972 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 1373 lots, down 4424 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 27480 lots, down 5159 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: There are 4487 warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil, up 600; and 6041 for rapeseed meal, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9895 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7868.13 yuan/ton, up 9.98 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9330 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.71, down 0.02; the basis of rapeseed oil main contract is 64 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 100 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 million tons; and the import volume of rapeseed meal is - 0.1 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.4 million tons, up 4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.5 million tons, up 0.4 million tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory is 55.4 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory is 32.86 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.85 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.26 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.89 million tons, up 0.1 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal is 19.53%, down 0.11% and 0.12% respectively; that for rapeseed oil is 13.12%, up 1.29% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.23%, up 0.09%; the 60 - day is 21.87%, up 0.04%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.93%, up 0.49%; the 60 - day is 14.5%, up 0.13% [2].

Group 1 - The EU is rapidly advancing legislation to eliminate all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and is also preparing to reduce tariffs on certain U.S. seafood and agricultural products, with a focus on meeting a timeline set by Trump [1][3] - The agreement appears to favor the U.S. more than the EU, as the EU acknowledges that the deal is intended to provide "stability" and "predictability," but this stability aligns with the U.S. agenda [1][5] - There is internal backlash within the EU, with 55% of surveyed companies believing the agreement places an excessive burden on Europe, and concerns about the lack of a predictable tariff ceiling [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. strategy involves leveraging tariffs and export controls to compel the EU to negotiate on digital regulations, which the EU insists are sovereign rights and not subject to trade negotiations [3][7] - The automotive sector is particularly affected, as the U.S. is the largest export market for European cars, with a significant portion of exports at risk due to potential tariff increases [7][8] - The EU's decision to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial goods may weaken its negotiating position, as it risks losing leverage in future discussions [7][8] Group 3 - The EU's approach to trade negotiations is characterized by a lack of clear boundaries and tools, which may lead to an escalation of trade tensions rather than resolution [8] - The potential for the U.S. to reinterpret or ignore the terms of the agreement poses a significant risk for the EU, as it may lead to renewed tariff increases [7][8] - The EU's legislative process may face challenges, as there are concerns about the symmetry and legality of the agreement, which could result in delays or rejections by the European Parliament [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump believes India's proposal to reduce tariffs to zero is "too late" and should have been made years ago [1] Trade Relations - The current U.S. tariffs on Indian goods have increased to 50% as a punitive measure for India's purchase of Russian oil, doubling the previous rate of 25% [1] - This new tariff affects over 55% of India's exports to the U.S., with labor-intensive sectors like textiles and jewelry being the most impacted [1] - Major export products such as electronics and pharmaceuticals remain unaffected, allowing companies like Apple to continue their investment plans in India [1] Diplomatic Context - India's officials were reportedly shocked by the new tariff measures, especially after months of trade negotiations between the two countries [1] - India is one of the first countries to engage in trade talks with the Trump administration [1] - Prime Minister Modi's recent meeting with President Putin highlights India's strong ties with Russia, despite U.S. pressure [1] - Modi emphasized the "special" relationship between India and Russia, indicating India's commitment to maintaining economic relations with Moscow [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump believes India's proposal to reduce tariffs to zero is "too late," indicating a lack of willingness to restart trade negotiations with India [1] Group 1: Tariff Changes - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods as a punitive measure for India's purchase of Russian oil, doubling the previous 25% rate [1] - This new tariff affects over 55% of Indian exports to the U.S., with labor-intensive sectors like textiles and jewelry being the most impacted [1] - Major export products such as electronics and pharmaceuticals remain unaffected, allowing companies like Apple to continue their investment plans in India [1] Group 2: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The recent tariff measures have shocked Indian officials, especially after months of trade negotiations between the two countries [1] - India was one of the first countries to engage in trade talks with the Trump administration [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with India's purchase of Russian oil, viewing it as support for Putin's war in Ukraine [1] - Indian Prime Minister Modi reaffirmed the "special" relationship between India and Russia, indicating India's commitment to maintaining trade ties with Moscow despite U.S. pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it is recommended to participate with a bullish bias. The market is affected by multiple factors such as the expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production, China's anti - dumping measures, supply and demand in the domestic market, and trade negotiation news. The market may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [7][8]. - For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to adopt a bullish mindset and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The market is influenced by factors like the expected high yield of US soybeans, domestic supply and demand, and trade negotiation news [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Rapeseed oil**: The 01 contract closed at 9789 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton from the previous week. Canada's expected increase in rapeseed production and China's anti - dumping measures may pressure Canadian rapeseed prices. Although the domestic supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose in the short - term, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The market is affected by trade negotiation news and may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [8]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2513 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply pressure, but the decrease in planting area provides support. In the domestic market, the low arrival of rapeseed in the near - term and the peak season of aquaculture increase demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. Trade negotiation news also affects the market [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price trends**: Rapeseed oil futures closed down this week with a total open interest of 263,601 lots, down 20,684 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures declined from a high level with a total open interest of 414,170 lots, down 6,858 lots from the previous week [16]. - **Top 20 net positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +7338, with a slight increase in net long positions. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures were - 13,689, with an increase in net short positions [22]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,887 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 6,410 lots [28][29]. - **Spot prices and basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,890 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was +101 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis was +47 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Inter - monthly spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +164 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was +89 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [49]. - **Futures - spot ratios**: The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.895, and the average spot price ratio was 3.86 [52]. - **Spreads between rapeseed oil and other oils/meals**: The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,431 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 473 yuan/ton, both with relatively oscillating spreads this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 542 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 540 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1. Rapeseed - **Supply - side - Inventory and imports**: As of August 22, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 were 200,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 150,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Supply - side - Import crushing profit**: As of August 28, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was +867 yuan/ton [78]. - **Supply - side - Oil mill crushing volume**: As of the 34th week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 45,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.01% [82]. - **Supply - side - Monthly imports**: In July 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85 tons [86]. 3.3.2. Rapeseed oil - **Supply - side - Inventory and imports**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02%. In July 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 16,700 tons [90]. - **Demand - side - Consumption and production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.769 million tons. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue was 450.41 billion yuan [94]. - **Demand - side - Contract volume**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 97,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06% [98]. 3.3.3. Rapeseed meal - **Supply - side - Inventory**: As of the end of the 34th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 21,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.65% [102]. - **Supply - side - Imports**: In July 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [106]. - **Demand - side - Feed production**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.8273 million tons [110]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 21.77% as of August 29, up 0.07% from the previous week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].

Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips [1] - Treasury Bonds: Hold and wait [1] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Weakening with oscillations [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Recommend holding a moderate long position at low levels [1] - Aluminum: Recommend buying on dips after a pullback [1] - Nickel: Recommend waiting or shorting on rallies [1] - Tin: Range trading [1] - Gold: Range trading [1] - Silver: Range trading [1] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Oscillating [1] - Soda Ash: Short 01 contract and long 05 contract for arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Oscillating [1] - Styrene: Oscillating [1] - Rubber: Oscillating [1] - Urea: Oscillating [1] - Methanol: Oscillating [1] - Polyolefins: Wide - range oscillations [1] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillating [1] - Apples: Oscillating [1] - Jujubes: Oscillating [1] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Short on rallies [1] - Eggs: Short on rallies [1] - Corn: Wide - range oscillations [1] - Soybean Meal: Range oscillations [1] - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and gives corresponding investment suggestions. Summary by Industry Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate. Coal prices continue to decline, with production gradually resuming after rainfall. Downstream is cautious, and it is recommended to trade within the range, with JM2601 focusing on [1110 - 1250] and J2601 on [1610 - 1780] [5] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. Futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamental data shows changes in demand, production, and inventory. It is recommended to trade within the range, with RB2510 focusing on [3100 - 3200] [5] - **Glass**: Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and it is recommended to take a short - term bearish view. The main 01 contract is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 1150 - 1200 range breakthrough. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices [6] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. Positive news from the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boost copper prices. Although there are some constraints in the short - term supply and demand, there is potential for price increases in the future. It is recommended to hold a moderate long position at low levels, with the short - term operating range at 79500 - 81000 yuan/ton [8][9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of bauxite is supported, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. With the arrival of the demand peak season and marginal improvement in inventory, it is recommended to buy on dips [8][9][10] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [12] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate. Supply improvement is limited, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the reference range of the SHFE Tin 09 contract at 25.9 - 27.6 million yuan/ton [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Expected to oscillate. Powell's dovish speech and other factors support precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips after a price correction, with the reference range of the SHFE Silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and the SHFE Gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. High inventory, uncertain export sustainability, and large upstream production pressure lead to a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5100 level pressure on the 01 contract [15][16][17] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate. Spot price increases slow down, and there is a short - term correction. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2650 level support on the 01 contract [17][18] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 7300 level pressure [19][20] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. New rubber supply is slow, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 15400 - 16500 range [20][21] - **Urea**: Expected to be neutral. Supply is increasing, demand is scattered, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level at 1680 - 1720 [22] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, demand has some positive factors, but port inventory is accumulating rapidly [23] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate. The cost of coal - based olefins provides strong support, supply and demand show different trends for polyethylene and polypropylene, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7200 - 7500 range for L2601 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2601 [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and there is a large inventory pressure in the short term, while the far - month contract may be relatively strong [26][27][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to prepare for hedging [29] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate. Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory of Fuji apples is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation based on low inventory and growth factors [30] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate. The growth of jujubes is in the expansion period, and it is expected that the price will oscillate upward in the near future [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: Overall under pressure. There is a short - term expectation of price increases at the end of the month, but the supply is large in the medium to long term. It is recommended to take profit on short positions on 11 and 01 contracts and wait for rallies to add short positions, and also pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [32][33][34] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The current supply is sufficient, and the long - term high supply situation may be difficult to reverse. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the main 10 contract or hold put options, and take a bearish view on the 12 and 01 contracts [34] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The supply is sufficient in the short term, and new corn production is expected to be good. It is recommended to wait for rallies to short on the 11 contract and take profit on the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to have limited upside. Domestic arrivals are abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure, but there is support at the bottom. It is expected to trade within the [3030, 3130] range in the short term [35][38] - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are mixed. It is recommended to trade within the range, with the support and pressure levels for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil as mentioned, and also pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage strategy [39][40][41][42][43][44][45]

日本共同社：日本贸易谈判代表、日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正将取消访美行程。 ...

印度新孟买堆积的集装箱。 工人在印度阿格拉一家制鞋厂工作。(新华社发) 新华社电刊载美国政府公报的《联邦纪事》27日发布来自美国国土安全部的通知说，美国东部时间27日 0时起，美国对自印度进口商品征收的25%惩罚性关税生效。当前，印度输美商品的关税税率已增至 50%。 面对压力，印度政府日前已宣布多项政策，重点帮助农民和小企业主应对关税冲击，同时向美方划出不 可妥协的"红线"。 "以实力应对压力" 这份来自国土安全部下属美国海关与边境保护局的通知旨在提示运输印度输美商品的运货商，美政府开 始执行总统特朗普8月6日签署的行政令。该行政令以印度"以直接或间接方式进口俄罗斯石油"为由，对 印度输美产品征收额外的25%关税。 特朗普7月31日曾签署另一项行政令，从8月7日开始对印度输美商品征收25%的关税。两项关税措施叠 加后，印度输美商品将总体适用50%的关税税率。 截至目前，美印双方已就贸易问题进行了五轮谈判，尚未达成任何协议。原定于8月25日至29日举行的 新一轮印美双边贸易协定谈判已被推迟，美国贸易代表团印度之行并未成行。据路透社报道，谈判期间 印方官员一度乐观地认为，美对印关税上限将定在15%水平。 连日来 ...

震荡收低，关注贸易谈判走向。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-08-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9853 | 32 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2501 | -25 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日 ...