Core Viewpoint - The current trend of the RMB exchange rate, with a slight appreciation in financial rates and a significant depreciation in trade rates, is deemed appropriate for stabilizing cross-border capital flows and promoting exports [2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Characteristics - The RMB experienced a sudden depreciation shock due to increased tariffs, with the onshore rate touching 7.35 and offshore rate reaching 7.4295 in early April [4]. - Despite a significant depreciation of the USD by over 9% from the beginning of the year to April 21, the RMB only appreciated by 0.8% onshore and 1.3% offshore, indicating unexpected stability [5]. - The onshore and offshore markets have shown good linkage, with a minimal average difference of only 3 basis points, which supports exchange rate stability [5]. - The RMB trade rate has depreciated significantly, with the CFETS index down 5.2% and the BIS currency basket down 4.8%, while the financial rate against the USD only appreciated by 0.5% [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - Key factors affecting the RMB exchange rate include tariffs and trade surplus, with a notable trade surplus of 2.64 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year despite increased tariffs [6]. - The inverted yield curve between China and the US has been significant, with a current inversion of around 260 basis points, which is expected to persist due to differing monetary policies [6][8]. - Cross-border capital flows have remained stable, with a net inflow of 51.7 billion USD in the first quarter, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing asset prices [6]. - The exchange rate pricing mechanism has shown a systematic slight positive bias, which is crucial for stabilizing expectations [7]. - Foreign exchange reserves increased by over 40 billion USD in April, contributing positively to exchange rate stability [8]. - A proactive fiscal policy has been implemented, with a completion rate of 24.5% for the annual budget in the first quarter, which is higher than in previous years [8]. - The financial package announced on May 7 includes interest rate cuts and liquidity releases, which are aimed at stabilizing asset prices and cross-border capital flows [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Responses - Future RMB exchange rate movements will be influenced by US tariffs and interest rates, with a focus on economic fundamentals [9]. - If the US economy faces significant pressure and interest rates are cut substantially, the RMB may experience upward pressure [10]. - Maintaining stability in the RMB/USD exchange rate is crucial for managing uncertainties and supporting exports, while also ensuring stable cross-border capital flows [10].

Group 1 - The meeting between the Governor of the People's Bank of China and the IMF President signals China's commitment to deepening international financial cooperation, potentially enhancing cross-border capital flows and exchange rate policy coordination [1] - The dialogue may create a more stable external environment for domestic financial institutions to participate in global governance, with opportunities for innovation in cross-border payment and offshore RMB business [1] - The collaboration could optimize the allocation logic of sovereign funds and foreign institutions towards Chinese assets due to policy alignment [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China plans to implement more proactive macro policies, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support key areas for employment and growth [2] - The expansion of the monetary policy toolbox highlights a structural focus, which may improve the financing environment for real enterprises, particularly in technology innovation and green transformation sectors [2] - The reasonable liquidity in the interbank market may alleviate pressure on small financial institutions, although pricing power disparities could intensify industry restructuring [2] Group 3 - In March, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade reached 4.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a trade surplus of 603.4 billion yuan [3] - The improvement in foreign trade data is expected to reinforce the safe-haven attributes of RMB assets, injecting stability into the capital market [3] Group 4 - In Q1 2025, China's gold consumption decreased by 5.96% year-on-year, while gold production increased by 1.49% to 87.24 tons [4] - The significant structural differentiation in gold consumption reflects a trend towards physical gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks, benefiting gold mining companies [4] - The retail jewelry sector faces pressure, but innovations in traditional gold and lightweight products may provide new opportunities, especially among younger consumers [4] Group 5 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) shares reached a new historical high, closing at 7.29 yuan per share, up 1.11% [5] - The continuous rise in bank stocks, particularly among the four major state-owned banks, indicates a market re-evaluation of high dividend assets [6] - The deepening of financial supply-side reforms and the improvement of deposit rate marketization may accelerate the wealth management transformation of leading banks, reshaping the industry valuation system [6]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 1）2024Q3跨境资本流动格局与过去三个季度相似，外资继续净流入而内资继续净流出，只是跨境资本净流出规模转为扩大。2）2024Q3跨境资本净流出的主要驱 动因素是内资流出4200亿美元，达到2021Q1以来的最高水平。3）随着中美利差有所回升，外资直接投资由净流出转为净流入。4）外汇储备由回落转为增加940亿 美元，规模达到十年来第二高的水平，主要反映估值效应。 报告摘要 跨境资本净流出规模扩大，内资流出规模达2021年以来最高水平。 2024Q3跨境资本继续净流出，净流出额为1934亿美元。2024Q3跨境资本继续净流出，净流出1934亿美元。2024Q3跨境资本净流出的主要驱动因素是内资流出 4200亿美元，达到2021Q1以来的最高水平。哪些因素推动2024Q3内资流出规模明显扩大？一是汇率变化以及资产价格上涨令外汇储备因为估值效应而增长；二是 中国企业积极实施"走出去"战略，对外直接投资持续增加；三是中国投资者通过"港股通"和"基金互认"等渠道购买境外 ...