Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk events are increasing, while domestic policy expectations are positive. The iron ore port inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, and the molten iron output has decreased for two consecutive weeks, weakening demand support. The sluggish steel market may drag down iron ore prices. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rebounds for the I2509 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - The continuous decline in iron ore arrivals and port inventory supports the ore price, but as the molten iron output corrects from its high level, the support from the demand side weakens. It is suggested to buy out - of - the - money put options [55]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights 1.1 Price - As of the close on May 23, the price of the iron ore main contract was 718 (-10) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 801 (-15) yuan/dry ton [6]. 1.2 Shipment - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.3478 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 318,800 tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 283,200 tons. Australia's shipment was 1.8887 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,100 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.635 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 800 tons. Brazil's shipment was 886,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 237,100 tons [6]. 1.3 Arrival - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.2804 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 289,600 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.2713 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83,300 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.0578 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 203,600 tons [6]. 1.4 Demand - The daily average molten iron output was 2.436 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [6]. 1.5 Inventory - As of May 23, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14.59183 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 155,160 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 914,490 tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8.92548 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,680 tons [6]. 1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.63 percentage points [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market 2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated weakly. The I2509 contract was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 35.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On May 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,900, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 14,267, an increase of 4,643 compared with the previous week [21]. 2.3 Spot Price - On May 23, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Industry Situation 3.1 Arrival Volume - From May 12 to May 18, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.3478 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 318,800 tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.7755 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 283,200 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.2804 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 289,600 tons [30]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14.59183 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 155,160 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 343,190 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons. The inventory of Australian ore decreased by 97,400 tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 71,390 tons, and trade ore decreased by 137,340 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 8.92548 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,680 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore was 301,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,040 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.57 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 days [33]. 3.3 Inventory Available Days - As of May 22, the average inventory available days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2 days. On May 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,341, a week - on - week decrease of 47 [38]. 3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - In April 2025, China imported 103.138 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; from January to April, the import volume was 388.36 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. As of May 16, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sampled mines was 66.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%; the inventory was 634,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,500 tons [42]. 3.5 Domestic Ore Output - In April 2025, China's iron ore output was 84.696 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%; from January to April, the cumulative output was 328.596 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2%. In March, the iron concentrate output of 433 iron mines was 2.3587 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 246,500 tons or 11.7%; from January to March, the cumulative output was 6.7368 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 470,300 tons or 6.5% [46]. 4. Downstream Situation 4.1 Crude Steel Output - In April, China's crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, the same as the previous year; from January to April, the cumulative output was 345.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [49]. 4.2 Steel Exports and Imports - In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%; from January to April, the export volume was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, China imported 522,000 tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 20.7%; from January to April, the import volume was 2.072 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [49]. 4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Output - On May 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.19 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.436 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 68,000 tons [52]. 5. Options Market - It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options as the arrival and port inventory of iron ore continue to decline, supporting the ore price, but the support from the demand side weakens as the molten iron output corrects from its high level [55].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 铁矿石市场周报 发运和库存同降，铁矿石期价重心上移 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至5月16日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为728（+32）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉816（+17）元/干吨。 2. 发运：本期澳巴发运总量环比减少117.9万吨。2025年05月05日-05月11日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2422.5万吨，环比减 少117.9万吨。澳洲发运量1797.2万吨，环比增加28.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1593.8万吨，环比增加75.4万吨。巴西发 运量625.2万吨，环比减少146.0万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量减少64.4万吨。2025年05月05日-05月11日中国47港到港总量2570.0万吨，环比减少64.4万吨；中国45 港到港总量23 ...

5月9日：全国主港铁矿石成交76.6万吨，环比下跌31.91%；远期现货成交167.4万吨。 本周247样本钢厂日均铁水产量出现增量。247样本钢厂铁水日均产量为245.64万吨/天，环比上周增0.22 万吨/天，较年初增20.44万吨/天，同比增11.14万吨/天。 5月12日，铁矿石期货震荡走高，截至发稿主力合约报711.5元，涨幅达2.15%。 【消息面汇总】 2025年5月5日-5月11日，澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2422.5万吨，环比减少117.9万吨。澳洲发运量1797.2万 吨，环比增加28.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1593.8万吨，环比增加75.4万吨。巴西发运量625.2万 吨，环比减少146.0万吨。本期全球铁矿石发运总量3029.0万吨，环比减少21.5万吨。 国新国证期货：上周铁矿海外发运环比有所减少，国内到港量小幅下降但仍处高位，钢厂刚需补库对铁 水产量仍存支撑，铁水产量继续增加但增速放缓，短期铁矿呈现震荡走势。 华联期货：产业方面，本期外矿发运量和到港量均有所减少，供应端主流矿山发运保持中性水平，铁矿 港口库存小幅去化。需求端，钢厂开工率小幅回升，日均铁水产量环比增加0.22万吨至 ...