作者：叶慧雯 来源：华尔街见闻 本月，Kalshi 以 110 亿美元的估值筹集了 10 亿美元资金，其投资者阵容豪华，包括加密投资公司 Paradigm、Sequoia、Andreessen Horowitz 以及 CapitalG。 与此同时，纽约证券交易所的所有者 Intercontinental Exchange 于 10 月表示，将向 Polymarket 投资高达 20 亿美元，使该公司估值达到约 80 亿美元。这些巨额注资显示出传统金融机构与顶级风投对预测市场 作为一种新型金融衍生品交易平台的长期看好。 监管博弈与合规路径 预测市场正经历指数级扩张，迅速从边缘活动转变为数十亿美元规模的金融板块。受体育、政治及经济 指标押注的推动，该领域的月度交易量在过去两年内激增了 130 倍，标志着通过「事件合约」对公共事 件结果进行定价与交易的模式已实现结构性跨越。 据加密货币公司 Dune 和 Keyrock 发布的最新报告，Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等平台上的月度押注金额已从 2024 年初的不足 1 亿美元飙升至今年 11 月的逾 130 亿美元。这一数据的剧变不仅凸显了巨量用户资金 正 ...

责任编辑：山上 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 加密货币交易所Gemini宣布，其预测市场产品Gemini Predictions已在美国50个州全面上线，支持用户基 于现实事件结果进行交易，提供近乎即时成交与完全透明度。目前限时免手续费，支持iOS移动端与网 页版使用。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，当地时间12月16日，Robinhood (HOOD.US) 正式举办名为"YES/NO"的主题活动。 此次活动不仅是其预测市场业务的深度升级，更被市场视为对传统博彩巨头(如DraftKings和FanDuel)以 及现有预测平台Kalshi的"公开宣战"。美银等机构警告称，这场"技术派"科技巨头对"传统派"博彩公司 的降维打击，可能迫使整个行业的获客成本与费率标准发生根本性逆转。 "据我们交流，在线体育博彩投资者似乎把Kalshi的任何负面都视为在线体育博彩运营商的利好，但我 们认为像Robinhood这样的大型科技公司加码投资，对DraftKings(DKNG.US)和FanDuel而言是竞争威 胁。"该行分析师Julie Hoover警告称。 美国银行认为，由于Robinhood近日宣布与Susquehanna Investment Group成立垂直整合的预测市场合资 企业，该公司可能会借机凸显对Kalshi依赖度的下降。 另一大关注点是，Robinhood、Kalshi与Polymarket在事件合约手续费上的竞争力度——它们要与 FanDuel、DraftKings和BetMG ...

什么是"预测市场公司"?为何如此火爆 "预测市场公司"的定义是什么?它们本质上是把现实世界事件做成可交易的二元合约的交易平台：合约 通常以"是/否"结算(例如某事件是否发生)，价格可被解读为市场对概率的定价;在美国语境里，这类合 约往往被包装为受监管的衍生品"事件合约"。 毋庸置疑的是，Robinhood等拥有庞大投资者群体的重要渠道引入相关合约交易、以及ICE、CME等传 统巨头以投资或新平台形式入场，显著抬升整个预测行业的可信度与用户触达。 预测市场以"事件合约"形式切入体育，在部分州即使没有合法体育博彩也能吸引交易量，因此成为 Kalshi等平台迄今的重要增量来源，同时也引发州层面的合规争议与关注度。更加重磅的是，一些华尔 街投资机构与专业交易资金开始把它用于押注/对冲宏观与公司事件概率(如美联储货币政策、大型并购 的成败)，因为合约结构二元、表达更"纯粹"。 来自华尔街知名金融机构Citizens Financial Group Inc.的分析师团队在一份研报中表示，类似Polymarket 这样的预测市场公司们(Prediction markets companies)到2030年这些公司整体营收可 ...

预测市场 天然的内幕平台内部人士提款机机 https://t.co/uh0yBrsqdm ...

Core Insights - Kalshi has reached a valuation of $11 billion, making Luana Lopes Lara the youngest self-made female billionaire globally, surpassing Lucy Guo [3][7] - The company specializes in a new financial product that allows users to bet on the outcomes of future events, including elections and sports [9][10] - Kalshi's valuation increased from $2 billion in June to $11 billion in October, marking a more than fivefold rise in less than six months [7][10] Company Background - Luana Lopes Lara, a graduate of MIT with a degree in computer science, co-founded Kalshi with Tarek Mansour after their shared experiences at the university and internships [11][12] - The idea for Kalshi emerged from their belief that there should be a direct way to trade on the probabilities of events occurring, rather than through traditional financial markets [11][12] Regulatory Challenges - Kalshi faced significant regulatory hurdles, requiring federal approval to operate as a designated contract market, which they achieved in November 2020 [13][14] - The company has differentiated itself from competitors like Polymarket by obtaining regulatory approval, which has provided a competitive advantage [14] Recent Developments - Following a court ruling in September 2024, Kalshi became the first company in over a century to receive regulatory approval to offer election contracts [15] - The platform has maintained a trading volume of over $1 billion per week, with more than 90% of transactions coming from sports contracts [17] - Kalshi has formed partnerships with major brokerage firms and is expanding into the cryptocurrency space through collaborations with blockchain platforms [18]

Core Viewpoint - Gemini Space Station's derivatives exchange application has been approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), potentially allowing the company to enter the prediction market sector and expand the number of native crypto companies in the industry [1]. Group 1 - Gemini Space Station's stock rose nearly 9% in pre-market trading, reaching $12.33 [1]. - The approval from the CFTC indicates a significant regulatory milestone for Gemini, enabling it to explore various prediction markets [1]. - Although Gemini has not disclosed specific products planned for trading on the new exchange, the regulatory filing mentioned a range of prediction markets [1].

Gemini Space Station(GEMI.US)盘前涨13.6%报12.91美元。消息上，Gemini Space Station的衍生品交易 所申请已获得美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的批准。Gemini尚未公开表示计划在该交易所交易哪些 产品，但在监管文件中提到了涵盖各种预测的预测市场。此次批准使得Gemini有可能加入预测市场领 域，并扩大业内原生加密公司的数量。 本文源自：格隆汇 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 marked a significant period for the cryptocurrency industry, characterized by both opportunities and challenges, influenced heavily by political events and regulatory developments [1][2]. Group 1: Trump Effect and Market Dynamics - The inauguration of Trump as President of the United States in January 2025 reignited bullish sentiment in the crypto market, with Bitcoin (BTC) prices approaching $100,000 [3][5]. - The launch of the "Trump official Meme coin" saw its market cap surge from approximately $4 billion to over $80 billion, creating substantial wealth for many investors [4]. - Trump's influence on crypto regulation became evident as he appointed pro-crypto officials and pushed for clearer regulatory frameworks, including the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve [6][10]. Group 2: Market Volatility and Economic Impact - The onset of a global trade war initiated by Trump in April led to significant market corrections, with BTC dropping to around $77,000 and Ethereum (ETH) hitting a low of $1,540 [10]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell to $2.6 trillion, reflecting a daily decline of over 9% [10]. - Despite the downturn, ETH began to recover, eventually surpassing its previous all-time high of $4,800, driven by the emergence of ETH treasury companies [11][14]. Group 3: Innovations in Financial Products - The second quarter saw the rise of stock tokenization platforms, with major exchanges like Kraken and Bybit launching services for trading tokenized stocks [17][20]. - The introduction of stablecoins gained traction, with companies like Circle going public, further integrating stablecoins into mainstream finance [10][17]. - The emergence of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi gained prominence, with valuations reaching $110 billion and $120-150 billion, respectively [24][25]. Group 4: Market Corrections and Future Outlook - A significant market crash occurred on October 11, 2025, with BTC dropping to $101,516 and ETH to $3,400, resulting in estimated losses of $30-40 billion [22][23]. - The aftermath of the crash led to a slow recovery in the market, with a shift in focus towards prediction markets as a new trading venue [24][25]. - The ongoing evolution of the cryptocurrency landscape continues to be shaped by regulatory developments and traditional financial market dynamics, indicating a complex future ahead for investors [25].

| GEMI Gemini Space Station | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 11 360 4-0.080 -0.70% -- 收盘价 12/10 15:59 美东 | | | | 12.910↑ 1.550 +13.64% | | 盘前价 12/11 04:10 美东 | | 三 7 24 5 8 9 月 9 白 中 白 中 白 中 白 中 白 中 2 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 11.570 | 开盘价 11.210 | 成交量 276.7万 | | 最低价 10.574 | 昨收价 11.440 | 成交额 3411.02万 | | 平均价 12.327 | 市盈率门M 写损 | 总市值 13.37亿(m) | | 振 幅 8.71% | 市盈率(静) 亏损 | 总股本 1.18亿 | | 换手率 17.36% | 市净率 2.045 | 流通值 1.81亿 | | 52周景高 45.890 | 委 比 -78.63% | 流通股 1593.75万 | | 52周最低 9.674 | 量 比 0.67 | 每 手 1股 | | 历史最高 45.890 | 股息 ...