智通财经记者 | 周芳颖 图源：智通财经 周芳颖 智通财经编辑 | 楼婍沁 2月2日，黄金价格出现明显回落，国内多家黄金饰品品牌当日下调足金饰品挂牌价，其中，周大福足金饰品克价降至1489元/克，较1月29日的阶段高点1706 元/克明显回落；老凤祥当日挂牌价为1498元/克，与昨日持平，但与1月29日的1713元/克也有215元的差距。 从此前价格走势看，上述品牌金饰克价在1月下旬曾连续上调，并在1月29日前后触及阶段高位。国际市场方面，2月2日盘中，现货黄金价格一度跌至4400美 元关口附近，价格波动加大。 界面时尚实地探访了有"上海水贝"之称的豫园商圈。多家黄金珠宝品牌沿街分布，即便是在2月2日这样一个周一的工作日下午，商圈内依然保持着不低的人 流密度。商场入口处不断有游客和消费者进出，部分门店门口需要排队等候，头部黄金饰品柜台前也常有客人驻足。 在老凤祥柜台前，几组顾客围着展示盘反复询问克价与工费情况，有人拿着手机计算重量与总价，也有人直接试戴成品。柜台工作人员告诉界面时尚，近期 购买黄金的人数"没有太明显的变化"，消费者对后市的判断并不一致。"有些人觉得还会涨，有些人觉得可能会再跌，也有不少人就是保 ...

北京时间1月31日凌晨，现货白银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅。现货黄金价格一度下跌 超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。受国际金价急速下挫传导影响，国内 首饰金价同步迎来大幅回调。 记者走访广州本地市场了解到，终端足金金饰销售持续火热，黄金回收业务亦同步升温，市场交投氛围 十分活跃。有消费者一次性购入足金饰品263克，单笔消费金额超过36万元。 编辑：杨帆 校对：蔡佳 而线上方面退货规则相对复杂，不同平台和品牌有所区别。大多数平台和品牌都不接受投资金类产品如 金币、金条的退货；针对黄金首饰，部分品牌提出了签收后24-48小时内退货的限制（需不影响二次销 售）。 面对市场波动剧烈可能产生的摇摆心理，部分品牌/平台设置了相关退货规定：生成物流单号/发货后再 退款，需扣除订单金额1-5%的手续费及快递运保费。部分品牌则表示，金条付款成功后15分钟内可申 请退款，逾期将直接拒绝退款。 社交平台上，有不少网友提及被扣款的经历，其中有人因退货金条产品被平台扣款超千元。有受访消费 者表示理解黄金的投资属性，也愿意支付手续费，但还是觉得5%的比例偏高，且其申请退款时平台并 未明显提醒 ...

Core Insights - The World Gold Council released the "China Gold Demand Trends Report 2025," indicating a significant increase in gold investment and consumption demand in China for 2025 [2] Group 1: Overall Demand - In Q4 2025, China's total gold investment and consumption demand is projected to reach 274 tons, representing an 18% year-on-year growth [2] - The total gold demand for the entire year of 2025 is expected to be 1003 tons, a 6% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2021 [2] - The monetary value of gold demand in 2025 is forecasted to hit a record high of 796 billion RMB (approximately 111 billion USD), reflecting a staggering 53% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2: Investment Trends - Chinese investors are anticipated to purchase a total of 432 tons of gold bars and coins in 2025, which is a 28% increase compared to 2024, setting a new annual record [3]

金饰克价上涨限制消费者购买力 金饰方面，2025年全年金饰需求总量达360吨，同比减少25%。不过，从消费金额维度来看，四季度中国消费者金饰支出 达778亿元人民币（约合110亿美元），同比增长19%；全年累计支出2814亿元人民币（约合394亿美元），同比增幅为 8%。 1月29日，世界黄金协会更新关于中国黄金市场的观察报告。2025年四季度，中国市场黄金投资与消费需求（含金饰、金 条、金币、黄金ETF及工业用金）总量达274吨，年同比增长18%，较三季度大幅攀升60%，同时创下历年四季度第二亮眼 表现，仅次于2016年同期。 2025年全年，中国黄金市场需求总量达1003吨，同比增长6%，为2021年以来最高水平。按金额计，全年需求更是创下历 史新高，总额达7960亿元人民币（约合1110亿美元），同比激增53%。值得注意的是，年内强劲的黄金投资需求抵消了金 饰板块的疲软态势。 值得关注的是，全年金饰"以旧换新"业务（消费者将旧首饰折算后补足差价及额外工费换购新首饰）持续火爆，有效缓解 了消费者购买力不足的问题。世界黄金协会认为，这一趋势是中国消费者对金饰兴趣持续高涨以及市场流动性不断提升的 积极信号。 ...

中国市场各板块零售黄金投资与消费需求(按吨数及金额计算) 四季度金饰需求走弱，环比下降3%，同比下滑23%，至82吨。全年金饰需求总量达360吨，同比减少25%。不过，从消费金额维度来看，四季度中国消费 者金饰支出达778亿元人民币(约合110亿美元)，同比增长19%;全年累计支出2,814亿元人民币(约合394亿美元)，同比增幅为8%。 与之相反，黄金投资需求的强劲表现延续至四季度且势头不减，金条金币需求量环比激增61%，同比增长42%，达119吨。2025年全年，中国投资者累计 购入432吨金条金币，较2024年增长28%，创年度历史新高。 四季度中国黄金ETF新增510亿元人民币(约合72亿美元，54吨)，创下单季度流入规模历史最高水平。这一表现进一步巩固了2025年中国黄金ETF市场的历 史峰值地位，全年资金流入量达1,100亿元人民币(约合155亿美元，133吨)。黄金ETF资产管理总规模(AUM)激增243%，升至2,418亿元人民币(约合346亿 美元);持仓量实现翻倍以上增长，增至248吨，两项数据均创历史新高。 中国人民银行(PBoC)四季度增持黄金2.8吨，官方黄金储备规模增至2,306吨 ...

上海恒隆广场内，一家知名金店的玻璃柜台前挤满了人。手指划过手机屏幕查询实时金价的顾客，正与家人视频连线展示金饰的年轻人，还有反复掂量金条 重量的老者——这样的场景，在过去几周里已经成为中国各大城市高端商圈的常态。空气中弥漫着一种复杂的情绪：部分是对资产升值的喜悦，部分是错失 时机的焦虑，还有一部分则是面对历史新高的茫然。 1月26日，国际金价突破每盎司5000美元大关，如一道闪电划破全球金融市场。这一数字不仅是一个新的价格纪录，更是一面映照出我们这个时代经济焦 虑、文化转向与集体心理的镜子。从华尔街的交易终端到北京SKP的奢侈品店门口，一场围绕黄金的叙事正在被重新书写。 一、排队中的经济学：从奢侈品到硬通货的心理迁徙 二、避险逻辑之外的推力：央行、地缘与代际心理的共振 传统上，黄金被理解为避险资产：通胀上行、美元走弱、地缘冲突加剧时，投资者转向黄金寻求庇护。本轮金价飙升，固然有美联储降息预期、全球地缘政 治紧张等宏观背景支撑，但更深层的驱动力正变得多元而复杂。 央行是"沉默的巨鲸"。过去两年，全球央行以数十年来最快的速度增持黄金储备，尤其新兴市场国家，正试图通过黄金来分散以美元为主导的外汇储备风 险。这种战略 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that the New Year promotional activities at SKP malls in mainland China have started on January 24, with significant customer traffic observed at Lao Pu Gold (06181) during the weekend. The bank expects strong demand driven by rising gold prices, predicting a triple-digit revenue growth during the Spring Festival period [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on higher same-store sales growth expectations, Citigroup has raised its revenue forecast for Lao Pu Gold by 6% for 2026, assuming a 15% same-store sales growth [1] - The bank has also slightly lowered its gross margin forecast to 38%, resulting in a 5% increase in net profit forecast for 2026 [1] - For 2027, the net profit forecast has been similarly raised by 5% based on the higher 2026 baseline and the same growth assumptions [1] Group 2: Overall Growth Expectations - The bank anticipates that revenue and net profit for 2026 will grow by 45% and 57%, respectively [1] - A minor adjustment has been made to the 2025 net profit forecast, which has been decreased by 1% due to the gross margin revision [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for Lao Pu Gold with a target price of HKD 1,119 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that the New Year promotional activities at SKP malls in mainland China have started on January 24, with significant customer traffic observed at Lao Pu Gold (06181) during the weekend. The bank expects strong demand driven by rising gold prices, predicting a triple-digit revenue growth during the holiday period leading up to the Spring Festival [1]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on higher same-store sales growth expectations, Citigroup has raised its revenue forecast for Lao Pu Gold for 2026 and 2027 by 5% [1]. - The bank has adjusted its 2026 revenue forecast upward by 6% based on a 15% same-store sales growth assumption, while slightly lowering the gross margin forecast to 38% [1]. - After these adjustments, the bank has increased its net profit forecast for 2026 by 5%, with a similar 5% increase for the 2027 net profit forecast [1]. Group 2: Overall Growth Expectations - The bank anticipates that revenue and net profit for 2026 will grow by 45% and 57%, respectively [1]. - Due to the gross margin adjustment, the bank has slightly reduced its net profit forecast for 2025 by 1% [1].

Group 1: Gold Prices - The overall retail price of gold in brand jewelry stores is maintained around 1436 CNY per gram, with slight variations among different brands [1][2] - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, and others are quoting gold prices at 1436 CNY per gram, while Chow Sang Sang is slightly lower at 1429 CNY per gram [2][4] - The price of gold in various gold shops ranges from 1226 CNY to 1431 CNY per gram, indicating a diverse pricing landscape across different retailers [3][4] Group 2: Domestic and Bank Prices - Domestic spot gold prices are fluctuating around 1031 CNY per gram, with 9999 fine gold at approximately 1029 CNY per gram [5] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reports paper gold at 1028.58 CNY per gram, with a general downward trend in precious metal prices [5] Group 3: Investment and Wholesale Market - Investment gold bars are priced between 1042 CNY and 1053 CNY per gram, with some brands charging significantly higher prices for crafted gold bars [6] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei market quotes 999 fine gold at around 1184 CNY per gram, showing a notable price difference between wholesale and retail [6] Group 4: International Gold Prices and Macro Drivers - International gold prices peaked at approximately 4630-4643 USD per ounce before retreating to around 4595 USD per ounce, influenced by inflation data and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [8] - Geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. Treasury yields are seen as key factors affecting gold prices, providing temporary support [9] Group 5: Central Bank Purchases and Market Behavior - Central bank gold purchases remain a significant foundation for the gold market, with global net purchases exceeding 1000 tons in 2025 [10] - The domestic market shows a divide, with wedding demand favoring brand stores while younger consumers opt for wholesale markets to lower costs [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical risks and changing monetary policies, has led to significant price increases in the domestic gold market, with major brands reaching around 1500 yuan per gram [1][3]. Group 1: Price Surge - On January 21, 2026, the price of gold jewelry in China jumped to 1498 yuan per gram, with some brands exceeding 1500 yuan per gram [1][3]. - The international gold price has reached a historic high of 4842 USD per ounce, reflecting a substantial increase [1][3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical risks, such as the threat of increased tariffs by the U.S. on Europe, have heightened global risk aversion, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Changes in monetary policy, including interest rate declines and shifts in the Federal Reserve's leadership, are supporting the macro environment for gold [5]. - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves to counter credit crises, which is bolstering gold prices [5]. - Tight supply of physical gold is also contributing to the price increase, with analysts suggesting that the bullish trend in gold may continue [5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The high gold prices have led to a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with a decline in gold jewelry consumption by 32.5% year-on-year, while gold bars and coins consumption increased by 24.55% [7]. - Consumers are increasingly valuing gold for its financial attributes rather than just as a decorative item, with younger generations favoring innovative designs and materials [7]. Group 4: Industry Transformation - The high gold prices are reshaping the jewelry industry in China, with a focus on hard gold becoming popular among younger consumers [9]. - Traditional gold markets are maturing, and brands are leveraging craftsmanship and cultural elements to attract high-spending consumers [9]. - Collaborations with popular IPs have emerged as a trend, appealing to younger demographics [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach 4800 USD per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, while Citic Securities is more optimistic, forecasting prices could hit 5000 USD per ounce [11][13]. - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank demand will continue to influence the gold market [13].