Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent decline in international gold prices and its impact on the gold jewelry market, with many brands offering significant discounts during the "May Day" holiday period [1][3]. Price Trends - International gold prices have recently decreased, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3247.4 per ounce on May 2, down 7.48% from the peak of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22 [3]. - As a result of the price drop, many brand jewelry prices have fallen below 1000 yuan per gram, with some brands like Lao Miao Gold priced at 987 yuan per gram and others like Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan per gram [3]. Promotional Activities - During the "May Day" holiday, major gold jewelry brands launched promotional activities, with significant discounts. For instance, after discounts, the price at Zhou Dazheng stores was observed to be 858 yuan per gram [3]. - Chow Tai Fook introduced a promotion offering a 10% discount on specified pricing categories and a reduction of 60 yuan per gram on certain gold products, expected to last until June unless international gold prices rise significantly [4]. Demand Trends - According to the World Gold Council's Q1 2025 Global Gold Demand Trends Report, global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, despite a decline in gold jewelry demand [6]. - In China, gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.492 tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year. Specifically, gold jewelry consumption fell by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 29.81% increase to 138.018 tons [6].

Core Insights - The gold market in China has shown significant improvement during the "May Day" holiday, despite a recent decline in international gold prices [1][2] - Consumer acceptance of gold prices has increased, leading to long queues at gold stores, particularly for new openings like Laopu Gold [1] - Promotional activities such as discounts and gifts have been widely adopted by gold retailers to attract consumers [1][2] Consumer Trends - Young consumers are becoming the main force in the gold market, prompting traditional brands to collaborate with popular IPs to attract this demographic [2] - There is a shift in consumer preferences, with younger buyers focusing more on design and craftsmanship rather than just the purity of gold [2] Market Dynamics - The gold recovery market is thriving, with the introduction of automated gold recovery ATM machines in Shanghai, which have seen high usage rates [4][6] - The recovery process is perceived as transparent and efficient, appealing to older consumers who are looking to capitalize on their gold investments [4][6] - The gold market is expected to face a seasonal slowdown in the second quarter, but ongoing uncertainty in international markets may sustain demand for gold as both a decorative and investment asset [6]

Industry Overview - The gold market in China is experiencing increased volatility, with domestic brand gold jewelry prices around 1000 RMB per gram as of May 1 [1][4] - Consumer interest in gold purchases is influenced by cultural practices, particularly the tradition of buying gold jewelry as part of wedding preparations [1] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are currently purchasing gold jewelry primarily due to wedding needs, with a noticeable decline in gift purchases compared to the Spring Festival [1] - A significant number of consumers are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding gold purchases due to price fluctuations [8] Consumption Data - According to the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.492 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%. Specifically, gold jewelry consumption fell by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a 29.81% increase [8] - Revenue reports from major companies indicate a decline in sales, with China Gold's Q1 revenue at 11.003 billion RMB, down 39.71%, and Lao Feng Xiang's at 17.521 billion RMB, down 31.64% [8] Company Performance - Some companies reported positive performance despite the overall decline; Cai Bai Co. achieved a Q1 revenue of 8.222 billion RMB, up 30.18%, and a net profit of 320 million RMB, up 17.32% [8] - Chao Hong Ji reported a Q1 revenue of 2.252 billion RMB, an increase of 25.36% [8] Market Trends - The younger consumer demographic (post-80s, 90s, and 00s) is increasingly driving demand for gold jewelry, with a focus on innovative designs and high craftsmanship [9] - The World Gold Council indicates a shift in consumer decision-making towards self-value realization, with consumers willing to pay a premium for products that align with personal aesthetics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The gold consumption market in China has shown significant changes in 2023, with a shift from jewelry consumption to investment demand, driven by high gold prices and changing consumer behaviors [2][3][5]. Investment Demand Growth - Despite high gold prices, consumer enthusiasm for purchasing gold remains strong, with promotional activities attracting many buyers [2]. - As of March 31, 2023, the price of Au9999 gold reached 730.80 yuan per gram, a 19.02% increase since the beginning of the year, while the average price for the first quarter was 670.67 yuan per gram, up 37.68% year-on-year [2]. - Gold jewelry consumption in China fell to 134.531 tons in the first quarter, a decrease of 26.85% year-on-year, while gold bar and coin consumption rose to 138.018 tons, an increase of 29.81% [2]. Structural Changes in Consumption - The market is experiencing a structural shift characterized by a decline in jewelry consumption and an increase in investment demand, indicating that gold's financial attributes are becoming more prominent than its commodity attributes [3]. - The high gold prices and seasonal demand weakness may pressure jewelry consumption in the second quarter, but the dual nature of gold as both a decorative and investment item is expected to support overall demand [3]. Young Consumer Demographics - Young consumers are increasingly favoring lightweight and stylish gold products, such as 0.1-gram gold phone stickers and 0.3-gram gold beans, which are becoming popular as "social currency" [4]. - The rise of young consumers is reshaping the gold consumption landscape, moving from traditional wedding gifts to self-purchase and gifting for occasions, reflecting a shift towards "self-indulgence and socialization" [4][5]. - Young consumers are more price-sensitive and often compare options, leading to a preference for brands that offer better value [4]. Innovation in Craftsmanship - Gold jewelry companies are adapting to diverse market demands by innovating production techniques and enhancing product value [6]. - The popularity of traditional craftsmanship, such as ancient gold techniques combined with modern designs, is on the rise, with consumers showing interest in products that blend gold with other materials [7]. - Technological advancements, such as 3D printing and health-monitoring gold accessories, are expected to expand the boundaries of traditional gold jewelry consumption [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, highlighting the factors influencing this decline and the implications for the gold market and related industries. Price Movement - On the first day of the May Day holiday, gold prices fell sharply, with spot gold dropping over 2% to near $3220 per ounce, and remaining below $3230 per ounce with a decline of over 1.8% at the time of reporting [2][3]. Market Trends - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand in Q1 2025 reached 1206 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%. Investment demand for gold ETFs surged, with a total of 552 tons, marking a 170% increase year-on-year, the highest quarterly level since Q1 2022 [8]. - In China, gold ETF demand saw a historic high with inflows of approximately 167 billion yuan (about $23 billion, or 23 tons) in Q1, contributing to record levels of assets under management and total holdings [8]. Consumer Behavior - Following the recent drop in gold prices, consumer interest in purchasing gold jewelry has increased, particularly for larger items, as the market anticipates upcoming events like Mother's Day and 520 [6]. - The price of gold jewelry in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area has decreased to 780 yuan per gram, down from over 800 yuan per gram, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing patterns [6]. Industry Impact - The rising gold prices have negatively impacted gold jewelry consumption, leading to a general decline in the performance of downstream gold jewelry companies, while gold mining companies have benefited from the price increase, showing significant growth in their performance [9].

今年以来，全球宏观经济和地缘政治复杂多变，黄金作为重要避险资产，在大类资产中可 谓"一枝独秀"，价格连创历史新高。尽管近期金价有所调整，但投资者热情依旧不减，不 少机构也继续看好黄金后市表现。 中国黄金协会最新数据显示，今年一季度，国内黄金ETF持仓增长23.47吨，较2024年一 季度增仓5.49吨，增长327.73%。至3月底，国内黄金ETF持有量为138.21吨。 投资需求和实物消费出现"劈叉" 并非只有中国市场，从数据上看，全球黄金的投资需求都在持续攀升。世界黄金协会数据显 示，3月全球黄金ETF流入约86亿美元，连续第四个月实现流入。 一季度流入总金额达210 亿美元，创下历史第二高季度纪录。 值得注意的是，受高金价影响，黄金的投资需求和实物消费出现了明显的"劈叉"现象，实 物消费表现相对疲软。中国黄金协会统计显示，在黄金消费量方面，2025年一季度，我国 黄 金 消 费 量 290.492 吨 ， 同 比 下 降 5.96% 。 其 中 ： 黄 金 首 饰 134.531 吨 ， 同 比 下 降 26.85%；金条及金币138.018吨，同比增长29.81%；工业及其他用金17.943吨，同比下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gold market showed robust development in Q1 2025, with various data reflecting its complex structure and inherent vitality. Group 1: Domestic Gold Production - In Q1 2025, domestic gold production reached 87.243 tons, an increase of 1.284 tons or 1.49% compared to Q1 2024 [1] - Gold mine production accounted for 61.772 tons, while by-product gold from non-ferrous metals contributed 25.471 tons, forming a significant part of domestic gold production [1] - Total gold production, including imports, was 140.830 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.18% [1] Group 2: Trading Market Activity - The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw a total trading volume of 16,000 tons (double-sided), a year-on-year increase of 4.57%, with a trading value of 10.70 trillion yuan, up 42.85% [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a trading volume of 55,400 tons (double-sided), a significant increase of 91.17%, with a trading value of 30.52 trillion yuan, up 143.69% [2] - The surge in trading volume and value indicates strong market recognition of gold's investment value amid global economic uncertainties [2] Group 3: Gold Reserves and Investment - Domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons in Q1 2025, reaching a total of 138.21 tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 327.73% [3] - China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons, bringing the total to 2,292.33 tons by the end of March [3] - The simultaneous increase in gold holdings by the central bank and private investors highlights gold's growing importance in asset allocation [3] Group 4: Consumption Trends - Gold consumption in China totaled 290.492 tons in Q1 2025, a decline of 5.96% year-on-year [4] - Jewelry consumption fell by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while investment in gold bars and coins rose by 29.81% to 138.018 tons [4] - The high gold prices have suppressed jewelry demand, but there is a growing interest in innovative gold products among younger consumers [4] Group 5: Price Trends - By the end of March 2025, the London spot gold price was $3,115.10 per ounce, up 17.79% from the beginning of the year [5] - The average price for Q1 2025 was $2,859.62 per ounce, a 38.16% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 gold price closed at 730.80 yuan per gram, reflecting a 19.02% increase since the start of the year [5] Group 6: Market Insights - The structural changes in the gold market reflect deeper adjustments in the global economic landscape, with central bank purchases and private investment demand indicating a decline in trust in fiat currency systems [5] - Experts suggest that the high gold prices are pushing the industry to innovate and adapt to changing consumer preferences, emphasizing the cultural and aesthetic value of gold [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the gold jewelry industry starting from Q2 2025, indicating a potential recovery due to low base effects and strong brand positioning in the market [4]. Core Insights - Global gold demand is projected to increase from 4,406 tons in 2012 to 4,554 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.6% [4][8]. - China and India together account for over 50% of global gold consumption, with their combined demand expected to remain robust despite fluctuations in gold prices [4][39]. - The jewelry segment constitutes 44% of global gold demand in 2024, while investment in gold bars and coins accounts for 26% [4][12]. Summary by Sections Global Gold Demand Overview - Global gold demand has remained stable, with a slight increase expected in 2024 driven by central bank purchases and investment demand [8][12]. - The jewelry segment has consistently held the highest share of gold demand, remaining above 40% since 2022 [12][15]. Country and Region-Specific Gold Demand - In 2024, China and India are projected to consume 27% and 26% of global gold, respectively, with a notable increase in gold jewelry consumption in both markets [39][42]. - The demand for gold jewelry in China and India has risen significantly, with their combined share reaching nearly 60% since 2021 [4][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in established jewelry brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Tai Fook, which are expected to benefit from strong brand loyalty and market stability [4]. Gold Supply Overview - Global gold supply is expected to reach 4,974.5 tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.58%, primarily driven by an increase in recycled gold production [25][28]. - The share of recycled gold in total supply has increased significantly due to rising gold prices, with a projected 1,370 tons of recycled gold in 2024, reflecting an 11% increase [34][31].