1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

Group 1 - The industrial added value of Fushun City increased by 11.9% from January to May, with significant growth in industrial technological transformation investment by 56.5% and high-tech manufacturing investment by 85.4% [1] - A total of 132 new projects were initiated, representing a year-on-year increase of 25 projects or 23.3% [1][2] - Fushun City is focusing on project construction to support economic growth, with 510 key projects planned for the year, including 17 provincial-level key projects [2][3] Group 2 - The city has successfully transformed from a coal resource-depleted area to a greener and smarter urban environment, with significant improvements in land previously used for mining [2] - The city is implementing a "green channel" for project approvals and providing greater support for financing, energy use, and land allocation to facilitate project construction [3] - Fushun has been recognized as a national pilot city for the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, establishing 30 digital workshops and smart factories [4] Group 3 - Fixed asset investment in Fushun has shown continuous double-digit growth for five consecutive months, with a growth rate of 14.1% from January to May, placing it among the top in Liaoning Province [2][4] - The city has successfully secured 7.4 billion yuan in central funding to support 13 key projects, with significant investments in underground pipeline construction [3]

Economic Overview - The province's economy showed overall stability in the first five months of the year, with significant growth in various sectors [2] - The industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.7% [2] Industrial Performance - Among the three major sectors, mining, manufacturing, and utilities saw year-on-year increases of 13.2%, 1.6%, and 4.4% respectively [2] - State-owned enterprises' added value grew by 2.3%, while collective enterprises declined by 1.2%. Shareholding enterprises increased by 5.8%, and private enterprises grew by 4.6% [2] - Out of 40 industrial categories, 27 experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 67.5% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising significantly by 12.8% [2] - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.5%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 25.4% [2] - Investment in the primary industry rose by 16.3%, the secondary industry by 1.7%, and the tertiary industry decreased by 2.1% [2] - Investment in construction projects increased by 6.5%, with projects over 100 million yuan growing by 11.0% [2] Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4191.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [3] - Sales of basic living goods saw rapid growth, with food and oil retail sales increasing by 20.3% [3] - Significant growth was noted in upgraded products, such as smartphones (up 130%), energy-efficient home appliances (up 54.7%), and wearable smart devices (up 46.1%) [3] Trade Performance - The total import and export value reached 3048.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3] - Exports amounted to 1615.5 billion yuan, growing by 12.1%, while imports fell by 13.9% to 1432.5 billion yuan [3] - Notable export growth was seen in electromechanical products, which reached 803.6 billion yuan, up 6.0% [3] - High-tech product exports, particularly in computer integrated manufacturing technology, increased by 24.1% to 36.8 billion yuan [3] Price Trends - Consumer prices experienced a slight decline, while industrial producer prices also decreased in the first five months [3]

Economic Growth - Liaoning Province's industrial added value increased by 3.4% year-on-year from January to May 2023 [1] - Mining industry added value grew by 13.2%, manufacturing by 1.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 4.4% [1] Industry Performance - Among 40 major industries, 27 reported year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth rate of 67.5% [1] - Notable growth sectors include railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing at 37.3%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing at 12.9% [1] - Chemical raw materials and products manufacturing saw a decline of 5.0%, while automotive manufacturing decreased by 0.7% [1] Product Output - Out of 68 key products, 64 were produced, with 25 showing year-on-year growth, a growth rate of 39.1% [2] - Significant increases were seen in transformers (110.0% growth) and primary plastic forms (7.6% growth), while aluminum production fell sharply by 68.5% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Liaoning Province grew by 0.1% year-on-year, with first industry investment up by 16.3% and second industry investment by 1.7% [2] - Infrastructure investment increased by 1.5%, while manufacturing investment rose by 12.8% [2] - The number of construction projects decreased by 9.3%, with a total of 8,593 projects [2] Consumer Market - Social retail sales in Liaoning reached 419.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [3] - Retail categories with significant growth included home appliances (91.2%) and furniture (77.0%), while petroleum products saw a decline of 1.9% [3] Trade Performance - Total import and export value for Liaoning was 304.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year [3] - Exports increased by 12.1% to 161.55 billion yuan, while imports fell by 13.9% to 143.25 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing challenges and structural changes in China's investment landscape, particularly in fixed asset investment, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate sectors amid external uncertainties and domestic economic adjustments [2][4][8]. Investment Trends - From January to May, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the first four months [2]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, both showing a slight deceleration [2][3]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, with the drop widening by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous months [2][8]. Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing investment maintained a robust growth rate of 8.5%, contributing 56.5% to overall investment growth, which is an increase of 1.9 percentage points from earlier months [3]. - Factors such as weak domestic demand and low prices are compressing corporate profit margins, impacting investment in related sectors [4]. - Equipment and tool purchases saw a 17.3% increase, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [4]. Infrastructure Development - Infrastructure investment is supported by the issuance of special bonds, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, contributing 34.5% to total investment growth [6]. - The government has allocated nearly 500 billion yuan to support major construction projects, aiming to enhance project implementation and investment efficiency [7]. Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment totaled 36,234 billion yuan from January to May, reflecting a 10.7% year-on-year decline, with new housing sales also decreasing [8]. - The government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through policy adjustments and financial support, indicating a potential for recovery in the second half of the year [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Henan Province's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 6.6% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with private investment growing by 9.7% [1] - Investment in the primary industry decreased by 1.5%, while the secondary industry saw a significant increase of 29.6%, and the tertiary industry experienced a decline of 4.2% [1] - Industrial investment rose by 29.5%, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 8.5% [1] Group 2 - Within industrial investment, mining investment surged by 44.9%, manufacturing investment increased by 30.8%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply grew by 19.5% [1] - In terms of infrastructure investment, water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management (excluding land management) saw a decline of 2.6%, transportation and postal services dropped by 17.4%, and information transmission investment fell by 15.5% [1] - Central project investment increased by 6.9%, while local project investment grew by 6.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed performance of consumption, industrial production, and investment, indicating a potential lack of sustainability in the recent economic recovery [7]. Consumption - In May 2025, retail sales showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from April, driven by government subsidies and increased consumer travel [7][18]. - The demand for gold and jewelry has increased due to rising gold prices, but this consumption is not stable and may not be sustainable if income does not improve [7]. - The overall consumer sentiment is cautious, with a preference for using savings over loans for consumption, reflecting a weak growth in new short-term loans [7]. Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in May 2025 was 6.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April, indicating a slowdown in industrial production [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained in negative territory at -0.1%, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures [7]. Investment - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% in May 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from April, with real estate investment declining by 10.7% [7]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 10.42%, but this was also a decline of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period, indicating a weakening trend across various sectors [7]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate sector requires additional policy support to stabilize [7]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable position due to a loose monetary policy and weak real financing, with a recommendation to maintain duration and wait for positive developments [7]. - The recent strong performance in credit bonds is attributed more to expectations rather than actual capital movement from deposits to non-banking sectors [7].

Economic Overview - Sichuan province achieved a total retail sales of social consumer goods of 11,734.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, outpacing the national growth rate by 0.6 percentage points [1] - Among 41 major industries, 35 reported an increase in value added [1] - The industrial product sales rate for large-scale industrial enterprises was 94.5% [3] Industrial Growth - In the first five months, the value added of large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 7.1%, exceeding the national growth rate by 0.8 percentage points [1] - Key industries with significant growth included: - Automotive manufacturing: 22.2% year-on-year growth - Chemical raw materials and products manufacturing: 18.8% growth - Computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing: 14.9% growth - Black metal smelting and rolling processing: 14.9% growth - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing: 10.3% growth [1] Major Industrial Products - Natural gas production increased by 11.2% - Power generation rose by 2.8% - Smart watches saw a remarkable growth of 95.2% - Generator sets (power generation equipment) increased by 60.8% - Lithium-ion batteries grew by 49.0% - Automotive production increased by 36.4% - Industrial boilers rose by 33.1% - LCD screens grew by 28.6% - Integrated circuits increased by 14.6% - Smartphones saw a growth of 14.2% [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.0% year-on-year [3] - Investment in the primary industry increased by 17.8% - Investment in the secondary industry rose by 14.1%, with industrial investment growing by 14.3% - Investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.1% [3] Real Estate Development - Real estate development investment decreased by 6.7% - The construction area of commercial housing fell by 12.3% - The sales area of newly built commercial housing declined by 7.4% [3] Consumer Market - In terms of consumption patterns, restaurant income reached 1,611.8 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% - Retail sales of goods amounted to 10,122.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% - Among retail sales, enterprises above the designated size achieved online retail sales of 863.4 billion yuan [3] Hot Products - Retail sales of communication equipment by enterprises above the designated size grew by 65.9% - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 20.2% - Retail sales of grain, oil, and food grew by 13.2% - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies increased by 11.9% - Retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry grew by 11.3% - Retail sales of beverages increased by 10.7% [4]

Economic Growth - Sichuan Province's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to May [1] - State-owned enterprises' added value grew by 7.4%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a significant increase of 17.5% [1] Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industries, 35 experienced growth in added value, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (22.2%), chemical raw materials and products (18.8%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (14.9%) [1] - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry also grew by 14.9%, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 10.3% [1] Production Output - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (up 11.2%), electricity generation (up 2.8%), and significant growth in smartwatches (95.2%), generators (60.8%), and lithium-ion batteries (49.0%) [1] - Other notable increases were seen in automotive production (36.4%), industrial boilers (33.1%), LCD screens (28.6%), integrated circuits (14.6%), and smartphones (14.2%) [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Sichuan Province grew by 3.0% year-on-year, with the primary industry seeing a 17.8% increase and the secondary industry growing by 14.1% [1] - Industrial investment specifically rose by 14.3% [1] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Sichuan reached 1,173.45 billion yuan, marking a 5.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Urban retail sales accounted for 950.47 billion yuan (up 5.5%), while rural retail sales reached 222.99 billion yuan (up 6.1%) [2] Consumer Trends - Restaurant income grew by 4.5%, with significant growth in household appliances and audio-visual equipment (20.2%), food and oil products (13.2%), and cultural office supplies (11.9%) [2] - Jewelry sales increased by 11.3%, and beverage sales rose by 10.7% [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The actual resumption of production in the tin industry may be slower than market expectations, with low smelting enterprise operating rates and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin was 263,730 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price was 32,550 dollars/ton, down 230 dollars [2]. - The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin was 160 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the position of the main contract was 21,967 lots, down 1,949 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin was 2,664 lots, down 101 lots; the total LME tin inventory was 2,155 tons, down 105 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 7,107 tons, down 265 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 520 tons, up 105 tons [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants were 6,662 tons, down 98 tons [2]. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price was 264,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 265,190 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan [2]. - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was 270 yuan/ton, down 530 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was - 164 dollars/ton, down 81.5 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 253,600 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 257,600 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan [2]. - The processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 171,710 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [2]. - The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2]. Industry News - From January to May, China's real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, down 10.7% year - on - year; the housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 9.2% year - on - year [2]. - The new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 22.8%; the sales area of new commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, down 2.9% year - on - year [2]. - The sales volume of new commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, down 3.8%; at the end of May, the unsold commercial housing area was 774.27 million square meters, down 7.15 million square meters month - on - month [2]. - In May, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 6.4% [2]. - In the first five months, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year [2]. - The macro - situation shows that Iran hopes to end hostilities through dialogue, weakening market risk - aversion sentiment. China's May social retail sales had the highest year - on - year increase since December 2023 [2].