Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side production cuts are accelerating the destocking of steel products, while inflation shows signs of the decline in pork prices slowing down. [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking 1.1 Production: Limited Increment in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has limited increment. On November 25, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 79.3 tons, down 1.3% from November 18. On November 18, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 186 tons, up 3.3% from November 11. [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate has been declining this month. On November 21, the national blast furnace operating rate was 82.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from November 14; the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from November 14. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 91.2% compared to November 14. [4][15] - The tire operating rate has declined. On November 20, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from November 13; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 71.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from November 13. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to decline. [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has improved month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 243,000 square meters, up 11.9% from the same period in October, but down 30.4% from the same period last November, 20.1% from the same period in 2023, and 35.9% from the same period in 2022. [4][23] - The retail sales of the auto market have improved week by week. In November, retail sales were down 11% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 8% year - on - year. [4][27] - Steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. On November 25, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by + 0.6%, - 0.3%, + 1.5%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to November 18. [4][32] - Cement prices remained stable. On November 25, the national cement price index remained flat compared to November 18. Cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell by 0.7%. [4][33] - Glass prices fluctuated strongly. On November 26, the active glass futures contract price was 1,026 yuan/ton, up 1.1% from November 19. [4][38] - The container shipping freight index showed a pattern of near - term decline and long - term increase. On November 21, the CCFI index rose 2.6% compared to November 14, while the SCFI index fell 4.0%. [4][40] 2. Inflation: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down 2.1 CPI: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down - The decline in pork prices slowed down. On November 26, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.9 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from November 19. [4][46] - The agricultural product price index rose moderately. On November 26, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.6% compared to November 18. By variety, fruits (+ 2.8%) > vegetables (+ 1.4%) > mutton (+ 1.3%) > pork (- 0.3%) > eggs (- 0.5%) > chicken (- 0.7%) > beef (- 1.0%). [4][53] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Declined Weakly - Oil prices declined weakly. On November 25, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 63.2 and 58.0 dollars/barrel respectively, down 0.6% and 4.6% from November 18. [4][56] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On November 25, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.5% and 1.0% respectively compared to November 18. [4][61] - The decline of the domestic commodity index narrowed month - on - month. On November 25, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.6% compared to November 18, and the CRB index fell 0.7%. [4][61] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in November. The prices of steam coal and wire rod rose month - on - month, while other industrial product prices fell. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged, except for cement and glass. [63]

Group 1 - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has provided a more optimistic forecast for the UK economy, estimating a fiscal surplus of nearly £22 billion over the next five years, significantly higher than previous estimates [1] - The budget proposal includes measures such as extending the freeze on personal tax thresholds for three years, increasing taxes on dividends, property, and savings, and introducing new taxes on properties valued over £2 million [1] - The OBR has adjusted the GDP growth forecast for the UK to 1.5% for 2025, while lowering the 2026 forecast to 1.4%, indicating ongoing structural challenges that may limit long-term growth potential [1] Group 2 - The UK's actual inflation rate remains high at 3.6%, which is significantly above the target level, influencing the Bank of England's cautious stance on monetary policy [2] - Despite an expanded fiscal space, structural contradictions leading to a downward adjustment in trend growth rates pose long-term growth concerns for the UK economy [2]

智通财经APP获悉，英国官方预算监管机构在财政大臣瑞秋·里夫斯发表讲话前提前"误发"的分析报告显 示，其关键财政缓冲空间已从3月份的99亿英镑扩大至220亿英镑(290亿美元)。 这一缓冲空间数字是自2022年3月以来英国支出计划中最大的，远高于调查银行预估中值的150亿英镑。 该关键指标是随着预算责任办公室史无前例地提前发布预算分析报告而公布的。 扩大的财政缓冲空间是通过增税298亿英镑实现的，包括对博彩业和高端房地产的新征税。 这份原本预计在里夫斯于下议院结束演讲后才公布的文件被提前发布，导致市场在涨跌之间波动，交易 员试图消化报告中相互矛盾的信息。 预算责任办公室确认了发布的真实性，但表示其网站上的预测链接"过早"上线。该机构为此错误道歉， 并表示已启动调查。 预算责任办公室估计，未来两年的通胀将比3月份的预测高出约0.5个百分点。受此修正影响，两年期英 国国债收益率上升约2个基点。 尽管财政缓冲空间高于预期，但整个预测期内的经济增长均被下调，以反映较低的生产率。 从泄露文件中明确的措施包括：对价值200万英镑及以上的住宅征收额外税收，并将房产和储蓄收入税 提高2个百分点。 文件称，超过2000英镑的养 ...

Group 1 - The US consumer confidence index for November dropped to 88.7, marking a seven-month low and falling short of market expectations [1] - The index decreased by 6.8 from the revised October figure, with the present situation index at 126.9, down 4.3, and the expectations index at 63.2, down 8.6 [1] - A reading below 80 typically indicates a potential recession [1] Group 2 - Consumers under 35 showed an increase in confidence, while those aged 35 and above experienced a decline, with the largest drop among those aged 55 and older [1] - The confidence index for consumers earning less than $15,000 increased, while other income groups saw declines [1] - Inflation and prices remain the primary concerns for consumers, followed by tariffs, trade, and political issues [2] Group 3 - Retail sales in September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, but the growth rate slowed compared to August and fell below market expectations [2] - Economists project a 3% growth for the US economy in Q3, with a slowdown expected in Q4, primarily due to the impact of the government shutdown [2]

Core Insights - The construction of the Gessibo-Boboli Hydropower Station in Côte d'Ivoire by China Power Construction Group is a significant step towards meeting the local electricity demand and promoting green transformation [2][3] - The project is part of a larger initiative to develop the Sassandra River basin, which has been a long-standing goal for the Ivorian government since the 1970s [3] - The hydropower station is expected to add approximately 550 million kilowatt-hours of clean electricity annually, increasing the share of hydropower in the energy mix to 33% [3] Energy Demand and Structure - The Gessibo-Boboli Hydropower Station is the second hydropower project constructed by Chinese enterprises in the Sassandra River basin, following the successful commissioning of the Soubré Hydropower Station in 2017 [3] - The Soubré Hydropower Station has generated over 11 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, providing stable and green power for Côte d'Ivoire's economic development [3] - The new hydropower station will help balance the country's energy structure, which has been predominantly reliant on thermal power [3] Employment and Local Development - The construction of the Gessibo-Boboli Hydropower Station has created approximately 2,000 direct jobs, with around 1,300 jobs in the core construction phase and nearly 1,000 indirect jobs [5] - Local workers have been trained and promoted to various technical positions, contributing to the high-quality completion of the project [5] - The project aims to provide a growth platform for local workers, fostering the development of qualified technical talent [5] Training and Capacity Building - The collaboration between China Power Construction Group and the Ivorian Energy Company has focused on training local operation and maintenance personnel [6] - Local teams have gained proficiency in operating digital monitoring systems for the hydropower stations, enhancing their technical capabilities [6] - The successful operation of the Soubré Hydropower Station has provided valuable experience for the ongoing and future projects in the Sassandra River basin [6] Future Prospects - The Ivorian government has entrusted additional hydropower projects in the Sassandra River basin to China Power Construction Group, indicating confidence in their capabilities [6] - The ongoing collaboration is expected to yield further economic growth and energy transformation in Côte d'Ivoire [6]

Group 1 - The European Commission has raised the EU's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.1% to 1.4% and lowered the 2026 forecast from 1.5% to 1.4% [1] - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been increased from 0.9% to 1.3%, while the 2026 forecast has been reduced from 1.4% to 1.2% [1] - The EU's GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% this year, maintaining the same growth rate in 2026, and increasing to 1.5% in 2027 [1] Group 2 - The increase in the 2025 economic growth forecast is attributed to a rise in exports before anticipated tariff increases and sustained growth in the third quarter, indicating resilience in the European economy [2] - Economic growth in the EU and Eurozone is primarily driven by private consumption and investment [2] - Inflation in the Eurozone is projected to stabilize, with a forecast of 2.1% in 2025, decreasing to 1.9% in 2026 and hovering around 2.0% in 2027, mainly due to a decline in the price increases of services and food [2] Group 3 - The EU's public deficit is expected to rise from 3.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.4% in 2027, partly due to an increase in defense spending from 1.5% to 2% of GDP during the same period [2] - Public debt in the EU is projected to increase from 84.5% of GDP in 2024 to 85% by 2027 [2] - The European Commission has called on member states to implement reforms outlined in the EU's economic competitiveness enhancement guidelines, particularly in simplifying legislation and improving the internal market, while also taking measures to stimulate economic growth [2]

Economic Growth Outlook - The median forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 is 2%, an increase from the previous survey's 1.8% and significantly higher than the 1.3% predicted in June [1] - Economic growth is expected to be supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment, although new import tariffs may reduce growth by 0.25 percentage points or more [1] - Inflation is projected to be 2.9% for this year, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 3%, and is expected to decrease only marginally to 2.6% in 2026 [1] Employment Trends - Job growth is anticipated to remain weak, with an average monthly increase in non-farm jobs of 58,000, down from the previous estimate of 60,000 [1] - The forecast for average monthly non-farm job growth in 2026 is 64,000, lower than the earlier prediction of 75,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year [1] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - A 25 basis point rate cut is expected in December, with an additional 50 basis points reduction anticipated by 2026, bringing the policy rate closer to neutral [1] - Bill Gross predicts that ongoing market volatility and economic pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to take action [3] Current Economic Performance - The U.S. economy's annualized growth rate for the second quarter is reported at 3.8%, the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2023 [2] - The Atlanta Fed has revised its third-quarter GDP growth forecast from 4.1% to 4.2% [2] - Despite strong GDP performance, concerns about a potential recession in 2026 persist, as highlighted by Jamie Dimon and Mark Zandi [2]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly refuted recession concerns, expressing strong confidence in the economic outlook and depicting a robust growth scenario for the future [1][2]. Economic Growth and Legislative Impact - Bessent attributed his optimistic forecast largely to a significant bill passed in July, which includes various stimulus measures such as substantial tax cuts and tax credits for auto loan interest income [2]. - He highlighted that due to this legislation, working families are expected to receive substantial tax refunds in the first quarter of next year, which will directly increase household disposable income and effectively stimulate consumer market growth [4]. Trade Agreements and External Stability - The government’s efforts in achieving multiple trade agreements and international peace accords are expected to provide a stable external environment for economic development [4]. Current Economic Challenges - Bessent acknowledged existing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector and certain interest-sensitive industries that are currently stagnant [5]. - He clarified that the weakness in these sectors is localized and not indicative of a broader economic crisis [7]. Inflation and Tariff Analysis - On inflation and tariffs, Bessent noted that recent price increases are primarily driven by the service sector, particularly rising labor costs, while inflation levels for imported goods remain stable [7]. - He explained the recent decision to eliminate tariffs on over 200 food items, including coffee, tea, and beef, as a result of trade negotiations with Latin American countries, aimed at enhancing trade relations rather than responding to inflationary pressures [7]. Government Operations and Public Confidence - Bessent mentioned the significant negative impact of previous government shutdowns on the US GDP [8]. - He announced an upcoming initiative aimed at reducing health insurance premiums, which is seen as a measure to stabilize living conditions for the public [9]. - The coordinated messaging from economic leaders follows recent electoral setbacks for their party, aiming to reassure the market and public regarding the economic outlook [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet stated that there is no risk of recession in 2026 and expressed optimism about the economic benefits of the Trump administration's trade and tax policies [1] - The "Great Beautiful Act," a large spending plan by the Republican Party, is still being implemented, and its economic effects have not fully materialized [1] - The new law makes the tax cuts from Trump's 2017 policy permanent and provides subsidies for seniors to offset Social Security taxes, while also increasing the deductibility of state and local taxes [1] Group 2 - Healthcare costs are expected to become more affordable, with further announcements from the Trump administration anticipated on this topic [1] - There are signs of distress in certain sectors of the economy, particularly in housing and interest-sensitive industries, although lower energy prices are expected to help reduce inflation [1] - The Director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, indicated that economic data for the fourth quarter may show weakness due to the government shutdown, which lasted 43 days, marking the longest in U.S. history [1] Group 3 - A poll revealed that about two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration has not met expectations regarding the economy and cost of living [2] - According to a recent cost of living survey by JPMorgan, Americans' perceptions of the economy largely depend on their income levels [2] - High-income respondents had an average confidence index score of 6.2 (out of 10), while low-income consumers averaged only 4.4 [2]

Economic Outlook - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the 43-day government shutdown resulted in a permanent economic loss of $11 billion, but he remains optimistic about economic growth prospects for next year due to falling interest rates and tax cuts [1] - Bessent noted that sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate, are in recession, but he does not foresee a risk of negative growth for the overall economy [1] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Bessent attributed inflation to the service sector rather than tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, aligning with the previous administration's stance [1] - Recent consumer surveys indicated dissatisfaction with rising prices, yet Bessent maintains a positive outlook [1] Future Economic Growth - Bessent expressed strong optimism for 2026, stating that a foundation for robust and non-inflationary growth has been established [2] - The current annual inflation rate in the U.S. is 3%, with efforts ongoing to reduce it [2] Manufacturing and Employment - Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, predicted a "brief setback" in Q4 economic growth due to the government shutdown, with growth expected between 1.5% and 2% [3] - Manufacturing job growth is anticipated, which will support the economic outlook for 2026 [3] Trade Policies - The U.S. recently announced reductions in import tariffs on certain food items, a result of trade negotiations [3] - Bessent emphasized that inflation is a comprehensive indicator, and the government is working to lower prices in controllable areas [3] Legislative Actions - Bessent called for the Republican party to vote immediately to end lengthy debate procedures if the government were to shut down again, echoing Trump's position [4] - Several policy adjustments are expected to increase real income levels for American workers, helping to offset rising living costs [4] Tax Reforms - Tax rate adjustments are projected to provide taxpayers with significant federal refunds in Q1 2026 [5] - The Trump administration plans to announce measures aimed at reducing healthcare costs, although specific details were not disclosed [5] Economic Development - A series of trade agreements are expected to boost the economy, with new factories anticipated to open across the U.S. [6]