美国财长贝森特：通胀预期应该会下降。 控制开支对美联储是有益的。 希望明年能够填补两名联邦储备委员会的空缺职位。 预计经济增长将超过3%。 拒绝就有关鲍威尔的问题做出具体回应。 美联储主席有很多强有力的候选人。 ...

美国财长贝森特：预计经济增长将超过3%。 ...

德国财长：我们最优先的任务是让德国重新走上增长之路。 ...

俄罗斯央行副行长扎博金：目前的经济增长比我们对今年的预期略微放缓一些。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that Vietnam is inclined to devalue the Vietnamese dong to support economic growth [1] Group 1 - The Vietnamese government is considering currency devaluation as a strategy to bolster economic performance [1] - The potential devaluation of the Vietnamese dong may impact trade balances and foreign investment [1] - The move is seen as a response to global economic pressures and domestic economic challenges [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the House of Representatives is preparing to vote on a tax reform bill, which is expected to be a significant step towards achieving the largest tax cuts in history and promoting substantial economic growth [1]

Economic Growth Plan - The Laotian government aims for an average annual economic growth of 5% from 2026 to 2030, focusing on modernizing energy, agriculture, and tourism sectors while enhancing human resources and promoting digital economy development [1] Economic Performance and Projections - The World Bank reports a 4.1% economic growth for Laos in 2024, driven by stable growth in services, electricity, mining, agriculture, and manufacturing exports [1] - The Asian Development Bank forecasts a 3.9% growth in 2025 and a 4.0% growth in 2026, with logistics and tourism as key growth drivers [1] - In 2024, the number of foreign tourists visiting Laos is expected to increase by 21% year-on-year [1] Agricultural Sector - Agriculture remains a traditional economic pillar for Laos, with agricultural exports reaching $977 million in the first five months of the year, accounting for 65% of the annual target of $1.5 billion [2] - Laos plans to export 74 types of agricultural products, including 200,000 tons of rice to Bangladesh, with China being the largest importer of Laotian agricultural products [2] - The opening of the China-Laos railway has improved logistics for agricultural exports, particularly mangoes [2] Support for SMEs and Listed Companies - The Laotian government encourages the development of SMEs and listed companies by revising income tax laws to reduce tax burdens and improve administrative efficiency [2] - The standard corporate tax rate for listed companies is set at 20%, with a new regulation allowing a 10% tax rate for the first 10 years post-registration [2] Inflation and Economic Challenges - Laos faces challenges such as inflation and currency instability, with the inflation rate decreasing from 8.3% in May to 7.2% in June [3] - The World Bank reported a drop in inflation from 25% last year to 11.2% in March, with expectations of further alleviation in the second half of the year [3] - Strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals is crucial for Laos to provide stable support for the economy and ensure long-term resilience [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurasian Development Bank's report predicts that the Russian economy will maintain a high growth level in 2025, but risks in the energy export sector cannot be ignored [1] Economic Characteristics - Economic Cooling: In Q1 2025, Russia's GDP grew by 1.4% year-on-year, a decline from 4.3% in 2024, marking the lowest growth in the past seven quarters. Industrial production remains the main driver of GDP growth, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points [1] - Domestic Demand Slowdown: Retail, catering, and service sectors saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase in total turnover in Q1 2025, down from 6.5% in 2024. The unemployment rate stood at 2.3%, maintaining historical lows. However, high-interest rates have shifted consumer behavior towards saving, leading to a slowdown in consumption and investment activities [2] - Ruble Appreciation: The ruble appreciated over 20% against the dollar from December 2024 to May 2025, reaching its highest level since the second half of 2023. This appreciation is attributed to high-interest monetary policy and improved geopolitical expectations, although it negatively impacts exports and budget revenues [2] Economic Forecast - GDP Growth: The bank forecasts a 2% GDP growth for Russia in 2025, slightly lower than previous predictions, primarily due to weak economic performance in Q1. High-interest rates will continue to limit consumption and investment, while declining global market demand will negatively affect exports [3] - Inflation Outlook: The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to slow to 7.5% in 2025, but persistent high inflation expectations and budget spending will likely keep inflation above the central bank's target [3] - Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Russia is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance to gradually reduce inflation, with the key interest rate projected to drop to around 18% by the end of 2025 and further to about 10% by the end of 2027 [3] Currency Exchange Rate - Ruble Exchange Rate: The average exchange rate for USD to RUB in 2025 is projected to be 90. High-interest rates will support the ruble, but falling oil prices and reduced exports may create conditions for ruble depreciation in the second half of the year [4] Risks - Major Risks: The main risks to the Russian economy over the next three years include a significant and sustained drop in oil prices, which could lead to reduced export revenues and increased budget deficits. The government may need to seek additional financing sources through domestic financial markets to cover budget expenditures [4]

Economic Growth - The Russian economy experienced a year-on-year growth of 1.4% in the first quarter [1] Freight and Inflation - Freight transport saw a year-on-year decline of 0.9% in May [1] - The weekly consumer inflation rate as of the week ending June 30 was recorded at 0.07%, an increase from 0.04% the previous week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In economic growth, cement prices have dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, while power plant daily consumption has been rising continuously. In terms of inflation, pork prices are fluctuating at a low level, and oil prices are oscillating [1][3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Economic Growth: Cement Drops to the Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past Five Years 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Continues to Rise - Power plant daily consumption is rising continuously. On July 1, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 842,000 tons, a 5.1% increase from June 24. On June 24, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.84 million tons, a 0.7% increase from June 13 [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate remains stable at a high level. On June 27, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.8%, unchanged from June 20; the capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from June 20. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 94.2%, unchanged from June 20 [4][14] - The tire operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. On June 26, the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from June 19; the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from June 19. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declined slightly [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Cement Drops to the Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past Five Years - The property market sales continue to improve month - on - month. On July 1, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 235,000 square meters, a 103.0% increase from June, a 46.6% decrease from July last year, and a 5.7% increase from July 2023 [4][21] - The automobile market retail sales are stable and relatively strong. In June, retail sales increased by 24% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 14% year - on - year [4][23] - Steel prices vary. On July 1, compared with June 24, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices increased by 1.3%, decreased by 1.9%, increased by 1.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively [4][28] - Cement has dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. On July 1, the national cement price index decreased by 1.4% compared with June 24. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 3.5% and 4.3% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][29] - Glass prices fluctuate weakly. On July 1, the active glass futures contract price was 988 yuan/ton, a 2.6% decrease from June 24 [4][35] - The decline of the container shipping freight rate index has slowed down. On June 27, the CCFI index increased by 2.0% compared with June 20, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% [4][38] 2. Inflation: Pork Prices Fluctuate at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fluctuate at a Low Level - Pork prices fluctuate at a low level. On July 1, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from June 24 [4][42] - The agricultural product price index is declining moderately. On July 1, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with June 24 [4][47] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Oscillate - Oil prices oscillate. On July 1, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 65.5 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.6% decrease and a 1.7% increase from June 24 [4][50] - Copper and aluminum prices rise. On July 1, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 2.2% and 1.4% respectively compared with June 24 [4][54] - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index has narrowed. On July 1, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 0.2% compared with June 24, and the CRB index increased by 0.4% [4][54] - Industrial product prices vary. Since July, the month - on - month prices of coking coal, coke, and hot - rolled sheets have increased, while the month - on - month prices of cement, glass, steam coal, and other steel products have decreased. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [59]