Core Viewpoint - The Eurasian Development Bank's report predicts that the Russian economy will maintain a high growth level in 2025, but risks in the energy export sector cannot be ignored [1] Economic Characteristics - Economic Cooling: In Q1 2025, Russia's GDP grew by 1.4% year-on-year, a decline from 4.3% in 2024, marking the lowest growth in the past seven quarters. Industrial production remains the main driver of GDP growth, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points [1] - Domestic Demand Slowdown: Retail, catering, and service sectors saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase in total turnover in Q1 2025, down from 6.5% in 2024. The unemployment rate stood at 2.3%, maintaining historical lows. However, high-interest rates have shifted consumer behavior towards saving, leading to a slowdown in consumption and investment activities [2] - Ruble Appreciation: The ruble appreciated over 20% against the dollar from December 2024 to May 2025, reaching its highest level since the second half of 2023. This appreciation is attributed to high-interest monetary policy and improved geopolitical expectations, although it negatively impacts exports and budget revenues [2] Economic Forecast - GDP Growth: The bank forecasts a 2% GDP growth for Russia in 2025, slightly lower than previous predictions, primarily due to weak economic performance in Q1. High-interest rates will continue to limit consumption and investment, while declining global market demand will negatively affect exports [3] - Inflation Outlook: The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to slow to 7.5% in 2025, but persistent high inflation expectations and budget spending will likely keep inflation above the central bank's target [3] - Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Russia is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance to gradually reduce inflation, with the key interest rate projected to drop to around 18% by the end of 2025 and further to about 10% by the end of 2027 [3] Currency Exchange Rate - Ruble Exchange Rate: The average exchange rate for USD to RUB in 2025 is projected to be 90. High-interest rates will support the ruble, but falling oil prices and reduced exports may create conditions for ruble depreciation in the second half of the year [4] Risks - Major Risks: The main risks to the Russian economy over the next three years include a significant and sustained drop in oil prices, which could lead to reduced export revenues and increased budget deficits. The government may need to seek additional financing sources through domestic financial markets to cover budget expenditures [4]

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey predicts that the Russian ruble will strengthen against the US dollar, reaching 98.25 in 12 months, up from a previous forecast of 97.5 [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a slight appreciation of the ruble against the dollar over the next year [1]

美国自二战结束后，一直是全球首屈一指的大国，甚至在苏联解体后成为唯一的超级强权。作为"世界 警察"，它始终高举正义的旗帜，恰如《济公》歌词中唱的那样："哪里不平哪有我"。但仔细观察便会 发现，美国所有的军事行动背后无一不是利益驱动，没有哪一颗子弹是无缘无故发射的，也没有哪一枚 炮弹是白白浪费的。因此，多年来美国在国际社会中的形象并不光彩，特别是在中东地区，其所作所为 更是引发大量争议和反感。 美国之所以敢于如此张扬且毫无顾忌地在全球展开军事行动，履行所谓"世界警察"职责，主要依赖于其 霸权体系的三大支柱：军事、科技和美元。二战结束后，美国强制推动石油交易与美元挂钩，成功将美 元确立为与黄金等价的全球硬通货，进而逐步掌控了世界经济命脉。同时，美国的科技实力在多个领域 遥遥领先，形成对其他国家的压倒性优势，就像跨时代的碾压一样。而其庞大的军事力量，则是威慑和 震慑其他国家的有力工具。 然而，西瓜不会永远都是甜的。随着以中国为代表的新兴力量迅速崛起，美国却日益陷入固步自封、难 以应对的困境，全球格局正在悄然发生逆转。正所谓"三十年河东，三十年河西"，当年美国军队曾肆意 压迫中国边境，但中国人民从未畏惧，如今更是有底 ...

智通财经6月25日电，俄罗斯央行预计，从2026年9月起将启用数字卢布进行支付。 ...

俄罗斯经济部长：卢布的走势将取决于未来的货币政策决策。 ...

俄罗斯央行：如果贸易紧张局势升级，全球经济增长率和油价的进一步下降可能会通过卢布汇率变动产 生通胀压力。 ...

Group 1: US Dollar and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's June economic forecast may be influenced by predictions of stagflation [2] - The US International Trade Court has halted Trump's "liberation day" trade policy, with the Trump administration filing an appeal [2] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting indicate rising risks of increased unemployment and inflation, diminishing the benefits of a flexible average inflation targeting in a high-risk environment [2] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - The Central Bank of Russia's tightening monetary policy has led to a slowdown in credit to balanced levels, with signs of inflation retreat [3] - The UK is seeking to expedite the implementation of a trade agreement with the US [3] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of investment over tariffs, noting positive economic signs following wage increases [3] - Japan's Finance Minister stated that there was no discussion of exchange rate levels in recent talks with the US Treasury Secretary [3] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister will continue to urge the US to reconsider tariff measures and will hold ministerial talks on trade expansion and economic security cooperation [3] Group 3: Other Central Banks and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor indicated that the official cash rate (OCR) may follow various paths, with uncertainty regarding a rate cut in July [4] - The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, aligning with market expectations [4] - The Bank of Korea forecasts inflation rates of 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, while lowering economic growth expectations for 2025 to 0.8% [4] - A Reuters survey indicated that 53 out of 61 economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% on June 6 [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor noted that there is still room for further rate cuts due to economic downturn risks, with a low likelihood of policy rates falling below 2% [4] - The Bank of Korea's Governor mentioned that recent US court rulings will reduce the effective tariff rate on Korea from 13.3% to 9.7% [5] Group 4: Currency Trends and Investor Sentiment - Investor bullish positions on the New Taiwan Dollar and Philippine Peso have reached the highest levels since 2020, reflecting optimism towards all Asian currencies [5] - The Russian Ruble briefly strengthened against the US Dollar, reaching its highest level since June 2023 [5]

俄罗斯央行：俄罗斯卢布兑美元涨穿80卢布整数位心理关口。 ...

美国银行策略师哈内特（Michael Hartnett）关于"买传闻，卖事实"的预言前半部分已应验：上周五他预 测标普500指数将在贸易协议框架出炉后飙升，随后该指数果然暴涨5%。当然，细节公布后市场可能回 吐涨幅，但眼下乐观情绪仍占据上风。 当市场在关税头条中震荡（或连日飙升）时，哈内特已瞄准"下一轮大机会"。他通过分析2025年表现最 佳与最差的资产得出结论：2025年"和平交易"的表现优于"冲突交易"。具体来看： 最差资产：原油（-12%） 哈内特在报告中预测，新兴市场股票将成为新牛市的核心引擎，支撑这一趋势的三大基石是：美元走 弱、美债收益率见顶，和中国经济带动 尽管市场广度改善（84%的MSCI指数成分股站上50日/200日均线，逼近88%的超卖阈值），但美银 的"牛熊指标"仍停留在3.6，显示情绪尚未过热。 特朗普推动的"利雅得协议"成为压低油价的关键——通过地缘博弈促使沙特、俄罗斯增产以换取解除制 裁，同时引导石油收入回流美债市场。油价下跌对中国、欧日及新兴市场构成利好。 哈内特警告，债券收益率将揭示美国政策的最终结局：是重演70年代"通胀式和平红利"（滞胀、保护主 义），还是90年代"通缩式和 ...

Group 1 - The Russian ruble has reached its highest exchange rate against the US dollar in two years, trading at 80.2237 rubles per dollar, driven by expectations of direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv and a decrease in domestic demand for foreign currency [1][3] - The ruble has appreciated over 40% this year in the global over-the-counter market, outperforming gold and becoming the best-performing asset [1] - The Central Bank of Russia reported a gradual decline in demand for foreign currency, reaching its lowest level since sanctions were imposed on Moscow's trading platforms, despite a 2% drop in foreign currency sales related to exports [3] Group 2 - A delegation of experienced technical experts from the Kremlin is set to participate in negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul, although key leaders like Presidents Trump and Putin will not attend [3] - The Central Bank of Russia maintains a record high benchmark interest rate to curb inflation, creating a favorable environment for arbitrage trading and the appreciation of the ruble [3] - The expectation of improved geopolitical conditions, stable currency supply from exporters, and high interest rates have supported the ruble's rise [3]