新华财经莫斯科1月8日电（记者包诺敏）2025年全年，卢布升值45%，涨幅领跑世界主要经济体货币。数据显示，卢布过去一年的升值 幅度为1994年以来最大，从回报率来看，其与贵金属一道已跻身全球收益率最高的五大资产之列。分析称，卢布这一涨势有可能破坏俄 罗斯经济。如何在保持卢布相对坚挺的同时，平衡好出口竞争力与外汇收入的关系，将是俄罗斯经济在2026年面临的重要挑战。 卢布汇率逆势上扬 2025年初以来，市场基于多方面因素长期看衰卢布走势。油价走低、地缘政治局势复杂等不利因素叠加，均指向卢布走弱。然而，年末 数据显示，美元兑卢布汇率稳定在1美元兑换80卢布以下，较年初1美元兑换100卢布以上水平显著走低。 油价下行、地缘政治风险升温以及俄罗斯经常账户盈余缩减本应拖累卢布，但卢布实际表现却与宏观经济常规逻辑背道而驰。专家指 出，国际金融制裁使俄罗斯外汇需求锐减，在制裁限制和对外贸易结构转型的大背景下，俄罗斯经济对进口交易所需的外汇需求日益减 少，从而减缓企业和消费者对卢布的需求压力。 2024年6月，莫斯科交易所宣布将不再使用美元和欧元进行外汇和贵金属交易，卢布设定机制发生重大改变，实际上由俄罗斯央行依据 场外交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced the central exchange rates of the Renminbi against various currencies as of January 5, indicating the current market valuation of the Renminbi against major global currencies [1] Currency Exchange Rates - The central exchange rate for 100 US dollars is set at 702.3 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 euros is set at 820.27 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Japanese yen is set at 4.4660 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Hong Kong dollars is set at 90.141 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 British pounds is set at 941.68 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Australian dollars is set at 468.17 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 New Zealand dollars is set at 403.07 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Singapore dollars is set at 544.28 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Swiss francs is set at 883.42 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Canadian dollars is set at 509.45 Renminbi [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 114.35 Macanese Patacas [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 57.882 Malaysian Ringgits [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 1149.24 Russian Rubles [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 235.39 South African Rand [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 20648 South Korean Won [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 52.46 UAE Dirhams [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 53.568 Saudi Riyals [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 4678.37 Hungarian Forints [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 51.332 Polish Zlotys [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 91.12 Danish Krone [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 131.77 Swedish Krona [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 143.81 Norwegian Krone [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 614.53 Turkish Lira [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 255.57 Mexican Pesos [1] - The central exchange rate for 100 Renminbi is 450.08 Thai Baht [1]

俄罗斯这个国家，说白了就是个开加油站的。财政收入的一半都指着卖油气。可现在，这个加油站生意不好做 了。西方国家搞了个"价格上限"，说你俄罗斯的石油，一桶最多只能卖60美元。你卖贵了，我就不给你提供运 输、保险这些服务。俄罗斯一开始还挺硬气，说我不卖给你了，我找自己的船队，自己保险，卖给别人去。这 就是所谓的"影子舰队"。 为啥一个家里有金山的大国，现在却要把压箱底的金条拿出来变卖？这事儿听着就跟天方夜谭似的，但它就这 么实实在在地发生了。 这几天你要是盯着汇率盘面，可能会感觉有点不对劲，那走势扭扭捏捏的，透着一股子说不出的诡异。这背 后，藏着一个大国正在经历的剧痛。 故事得从黄金说起。咱们普通老百姓，手里有点闲钱，总想着买点金戒指、金手镯啥的，图个啥？图个心里踏 实，觉得这黄澄澄的东西是硬通货，是最后的保障。国家也一样，黄金储备就是一个国家最后的家底，是信用 的压舱石。可就在2022年，俄罗斯干了一件怪事，普京大笔一挥，签了个法案，老百姓买金条，那20%的增值 税，免了！ 这一下可不得了，俄罗斯的老百姓跟疯了似的，一年就买走了超过60吨的金条。表面上看，这是大家在投资， 在避险。可往深了想，这更像是一场全民参 ...

Group 1: Technological Developments - The United States has historically dominated technology sectors such as chip manufacturing, aerospace, internet development, and artificial intelligence, but China has made significant advancements in these areas over the past decade [3][6] - China's increased investment in technology research and development, along with proactive policy adjustments, has led to substantial achievements in key technology fields, showcasing its independent R&D capabilities and international competitiveness [3][4] - The technological innovation chain in China has gradually formed and improved, narrowing the gap with global advanced levels and establishing a robust technological capability system [3][4] Group 2: Military Dynamics - The traditional military dominance of the United States is being challenged, particularly highlighted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, where Russia's military actions have not yielded the expected results from Western sanctions [8][10] - The effectiveness of U.S. military interventions is diminishing as countries like Russia demonstrate resilience and strategic determination, altering the landscape of global military engagement [10][16] - The cost and complexity of military interventions have increased, leading to greater uncertainty for the U.S. in achieving its objectives through military means [10][16] Group 3: Financial Landscape - Despite challenges in technology and military, the U.S. dollar remains a cornerstone of American influence in global affairs, with its dominance in trade, investment, and settlement systems [12][14] - China and Russia are actively promoting the international use of their currencies, which poses a long-term threat to the dollar's supremacy, as more countries may opt for alternative currencies for trade settlements [12][14] - The U.S. strategy of using financial sanctions as a diplomatic tool has raised concerns among other nations, prompting them to seek alternatives to mitigate risks associated with U.S. financial policies [14][16] Group 4: Global Power Shift - The world is transitioning from a unipolar to a multipolar structure, with the U.S. losing its monopoly in technology and military while still relying on dollar dominance [4][16] - The ongoing changes indicate a shift towards a more balanced and diverse global development landscape, where countries are encouraged to enhance their influence and cooperation [18] - The future international order will depend on which nations can adapt and prepare effectively for the emerging multipolar dynamics [18]

Core Viewpoint - The 2008 international financial crisis revealed inherent flaws and potential risks in the US dollar-dominated international monetary system, prompting emerging economies represented by BRICS nations to seek systemic reforms, including currency internationalization, to mitigate various risks. However, due to differences in economic structure, openness, and financial systems, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa exhibit varying degrees of enthusiasm and methods for currency internationalization. This article analyzes the processes and characteristics of these countries' currency internationalization to provide insights for advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][3]. Group 1: Russia's Ruble Internationalization - Russia has strategically prioritized the internationalization of the ruble to enhance the global competitiveness of its financial system, especially in the context of the Ukraine conflict, linking it to sanctions mitigation and economic independence [4][6]. - The ruble's internationalization process can be divided into four phases, starting from the post-Soviet era, where Russia aimed to restore the ruble's international status through reforms and establishing a market-based exchange rate system [4][5]. - Following the 2008 financial crisis, Russia actively promoted the ruble's international use through regional and bilateral agreements, with a focus on the Eurasian Economic Union and increasing ruble trade settlements [6][7]. Group 2: India's Rupee Internationalization - India's approach to rupee internationalization has been cautious, evolving through two main phases, with a focus on promoting foreign trade and better integration into international markets [8][9]. - Initially, India adopted a gradual and cautious strategy, emphasizing bilateral invoicing and settlements in rupees, while only fully liberalizing international investments in 2014 [9][10]. - Post-Ukraine conflict, India has become more proactive in promoting rupee internationalization, establishing direct settlement mechanisms and engaging in regional cooperation frameworks to enhance the rupee's global acceptance [10]. Group 3: Brazil's Real Internationalization - Brazil's strategy for the internationalization of the real is characterized by a lack of a defined timeline, focusing instead on enhancing international and regional trade shares [11][12]. - Brazil implemented earlier reforms in exchange rate policy and capital account liberalization, transitioning to a floating exchange rate system in 1999 and promoting capital account openness [11][12]. - The internationalization of the real is facilitated through regional cooperation, particularly within the Southern Common Market, promoting trade settlements in local currencies and exploring the possibility of a unified currency among member states [12]. Group 4: South Africa's Rand Internationalization - South Africa has not set explicit goals or timelines for rand internationalization, but emphasizes the currency's stability and convertibility as crucial for economic support [13][14]. - The rand's internationalization has been primarily focused on regional usage, leveraging South Africa's influence in Africa to expand the currency's reach [13][14]. - Following the end of apartheid, South Africa's economic policies shifted towards market liberalization, enhancing the rand's trading volume and market activity [13]. Group 5: Insights and Implications - The currency internationalization efforts of these countries have shown some success, with increases in global foreign exchange trading shares for the rupee, real, and rand from 2010 to 2022 [15]. - Economic strength and stability are foundational for currency internationalization, with challenges such as inflation and political instability affecting the global acceptance of these currencies [16]. - The process of currency internationalization is also a de-dollarization effort, with a focus on regional expansion as a strategic approach to reduce reliance on the US dollar [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The further decline of US Treasury yields before September may be primarily driven by weaker economic data leading to higher expectations of interest rate cuts, or by the "see - saw effect" triggered by the weakness of other assets. The 10 - year yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 4.00 - 4.30%, but inflation and the "Big and Beautiful" Act may impede the decline of long - term yields [4][14]. - In the two - week period from July 18 to August 1, 2025, affected by the US July non - farm payroll report, global investors' risk - aversion increased, resulting in a double - kill situation in the US stock and bond markets. Different asset classes showed various trends, including significant declines in US and UK government bond yields, a new high in the Japanese stock market, a slump in the US stock market, an upward trend in the coking coal index, a decline in Chicago agricultural product futures prices, and a depreciation of the ruble and the euro [5][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. What Conditions are Needed for the Further Decline of US Treasury Yields? - **Monetary Policy**: At the July FOMC meeting, the interest rate and other monetary policies remained at the June level, in line with market expectations. Waller and Bowman voted against interest rate cuts, citing signs of weakness in the labor market, and Kugler, who was set to leave early, did not attend or vote. Kugler's early departure may increase Trump's influence on the Fed and lead to more divided views within the Fed [1][10]. - **Growth**: Q2 GDP showed a quarter - on - quarter increase of 3.0%, but the main drivers were a decline in imports and accelerated consumer spending. Private consumption and investment weakened, with PDFP growing by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter, lower than the 1.9% in Q1 [2][10]. - **Inflation**: In June, inflationary pressures emerged, with CPI at 2.7%, core CPI at 2.9%, PCE at 2.6%, and core PCE at 2.8%, all reaching the highest levels since March [2][10]. - **Employment**: In July, the ADP employment figure rebounded unexpectedly, but the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, which greatly disrupted the interest rate market expectations, causing the 1 - year yield to decline by about 17bp on August 1 [2][11]. - **Policy Stance**: Some Fed presidents still recognize the resilience of the economy and employment and maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, denying the risk of recession and affirming the risk of stagflation [3][12]. 2. Bi - weekly Overseas Macro - analysis - **Interest Rates**: In the past two weeks, US Treasury yields declined significantly, with the 1 - year and 10 - year yields both dropping 21bp to 3.87% and 4.23% respectively. Affected by US Treasuries, UK government bond yields also declined on August 1, increasing investors' risk - aversion [5][16]. - **Equities**: The Japanese stock market reached a new high, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 2.46% in the past two weeks, driven by the US - Japan trade agreement on July 23. However, trading volume was low in July. The US stock market slumped after the release of the July non - farm payroll report, with the Nasdaq index dropping 2.29% on the night of the report release [17]. - **Commodities**: The coking coal index rose 12.07% in the past two weeks after the central government emphasized governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. Chicago agricultural product futures prices fell across the board, pressured by high expectations of a bumper US autumn harvest [18]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The ruble depreciated by 3.44% in the past two weeks after the Russian central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points on July 25. The euro fell 1.24% due to the impact of the US - EU trade agreement and a decline in investor confidence [19]. 3. Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts, including the bi - weekly fluctuations of global major economies' government bond yields, global major stock indices, major commodities, and global major foreign exchange rates (against the RMB), as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, and the yield curves and inflation trends of US, Japanese, and German government bonds [24][28][30][32][35][41][45].

Core Viewpoint - The book "The Ruble: A Political History (1769-1924)" fills a gap in the understanding of the ruble's historical significance and its political implications in Russia's development over a century and a half [1] Group 1: Historical Context of the Ruble - The first paper currency in Russia was issued in 1769, coinciding with military actions against the Ottoman Empire, and was designed to promote patriotism [2] - The issuance of the ruble sparked debates among Russian officials about the nature of currency and the responsibilities of the monarchy, reflecting the political and financial challenges of the time [3] - The book discusses the evolution of the ruble in relation to Russia's interactions with other nations, including Poland and the Ottoman Empire, and highlights the impact of various reforms on the currency's status [4][5] Group 2: Economic Reforms and Political Implications - The introduction of the gold standard under financial reformer Sergei Witte aimed to stabilize the ruble and attract foreign investment, but it also tied the currency's value closely to Russia's political stability [6] - The book illustrates how the ruble was used as a tool for both domestic reforms and imperial expansion, with significant implications for Russia's financial and political landscape [4][6] - The relationship between currency and political power is emphasized, particularly during periods of reform and conflict, showcasing the ruble's role in Russia's national identity and economic strategy [7][8] Group 3: Contemporary Relevance - The current geopolitical climate, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has renewed interest in the ruble's historical and present-day significance, particularly in the context of international sanctions and economic strategies [8] - The ruble's resilience and attempts at internationalization, such as settlements with Global South countries and the introduction of digital rubles, reflect ongoing efforts to adapt to modern financial challenges [8]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia's failure to reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine has led him to shorten the previously set 50-day deadline to approximately 10 to 12 days, threatening to impose "secondary sanctions" on Russia if no progress is made [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's statements, international crude oil futures saw a significant increase, with WTI crude rising to $67.06, up over 2.9%, and Brent crude reaching $70.35, up nearly 2.8% [2] - The Russian ruble weakened against the dollar, dropping below 81.00 and falling over 2%, marking a new low since mid-May [5] - Market concerns about potential supply disruptions due to sanctions have intensified, with traders reassessing risks related to transportation costs and supply chain changes [8] Group 2: Sanctions and Trade Implications - Trump's threat of "secondary sanctions" could impact major buyers of Russian oil, such as India and China, as it may lead to sanctions on countries doing business with sanctioned entities [5][7] - The potential for a 100% tariff on Russian goods, including oil, was previously mentioned, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [6] - Trump's remarks about Russia's rich rare earth resources suggest a potential area for trade, although the current geopolitical climate complicates such discussions [5] Group 3: Diplomatic Efforts and Peace Prospects - Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have faced setbacks, with Trump expressing frustration over the lack of sincerity from Putin in negotiations [9] - NATO allies, including Germany, are increasing pressure on Russia and enhancing military support for Ukraine, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive stance against Russian actions [9] - Despite some minor diplomatic exchanges, such as prisoner swaps, there has been no substantial progress towards ending the conflict that began with Russia's invasion in February 2022 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of the Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange has significantly increased in June, but the average daily trading volume remains below 100 billion rubles, indicating a recovery from a previous low rather than sustained growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Activity - In June, the total trading volume of "next-day delivery" yuan exceeded 1.58 trillion rubles, a 13% increase from May [2]. - The average daily trading volume also grew nearly 13% to 800 billion rubles, although it is still significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March, when daily trading volumes exceeded 1 trillion rubles [2]. - The increase in trading activity in June is attributed to higher oil prices at the end of the first quarter, which led to increased foreign exchange income for exporters [2]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - By the end of June, the yuan's exchange rate was 1 yuan to 10.92 rubles, a slight increase of 2 kopecks from the beginning of the month [3]. - The exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range of 10.8 to 11 rubles per yuan during June, indicating a stabilization in the market [3]. - Analysts expect that the yuan's supply from exporters may decrease in July due to falling oil prices in April and May, which could lead to reduced foreign exchange sales [3]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Experts predict that the ruble will gradually depreciate in the second half of the year, with the average exchange rate expected to reach approximately 1 yuan to 11.7 rubles and 1 dollar to 85 rubles by the fourth quarter [4]. - Factors contributing to the ruble's depreciation include seasonal import demand, increased foreign exchange spending for summer travel, and potential interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia [4]. - Analysts believe that the yuan's exchange rate will rise in the second half of the year, while the ruble will experience moderate depreciation due to seasonal factors and monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - The dollar index has fallen below 100, while the 30-year Treasury yield has surged past 5%, leading to an additional $50 billion in annual interest payments [2] - The U.S. is experiencing a wave of de-dollarization, primarily driven by actions from the Trump administration, including a recent executive order imposing 100% tariffs on key exports from 23 countries [2][4] - Countries like Russia, Brazil, and Iran are increasingly using alternative currencies for trade, with 92.3% of Russia's trade with BRICS partners now settled in currencies other than the dollar [4] Group 2 - The U.S. sanctions have prompted a significant shift away from the dollar, with China selling $74 billion in U.S. Treasuries, marking a 16-year low in holdings [4] - The SPFS system in Russia, which bypasses SWIFT, is now connected to 159 countries, indicating a growing trend towards alternative payment systems [5] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped below 55%, the lowest level since 1995, signaling a decline in dollar dominance [7]