美股开盘，道指涨0.18%，纳指涨0.05%，标普500指数涨0.12%。波音涨超2%，特斯拉、Meta涨超1%； 英伟达跌超1%。 ...

非农倒计时：硬数据将如何改写美股与黄金剧本？金价已回调近7%，"聪明钱"持仓转向暗藏玄机，技 术面揭示短期回调风险；解析政策转向与资金流动信号，锁定本周关键数据前的仓位调整策略>> 相关链接 ...

美股反弹黄金回调：政策转向下的操作指南 避险情绪退潮，黄金遇阻3500、超买警报兑现，如何构建防御性交易策略？非农数据倒计时，周中GDP 数据将提前决定多空胜负。解锁实战框架>> 相关链接 ...

摩根士丹利的Michael Wilson表示，美元走软将支撑美国企业盈利，有助于美国股市跑赢全球其他市 场。Wilson特立独行地认为美国仍是相对较好的投资选择。他指出，企业盈利增长波动性较小以及美国 企业被认为质量更高是支持这一观点的其他理由。Wilson预计，标普500指数将在5,000点至5,500点区间 内波动。 ...

摩根士丹利策略师Wilson：美元疲软将支撑美股跑赢全球其他市场。 ...

智通财经4月28日电，美股期货走高，三大股指期货均收复盘中所有跌幅，纳斯达克100指数期货此前跌 0.7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market may have reached an upward turning point, but three key obstacles remain to be overcome for a sustained rally [1] Group 1: Market Signals - Recent positive signals include reduced overseas selling pressure on major tech stocks and significant net buying by hedge funds [2][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline from 5462 to a year-low of 4835, followed by a rebound of 735 basis points, closing at 5525 [2] - The dynamics of increased long-term buying in the U.S. and decreased international selling are critical for future market performance [3] Group 2: Key Indicators to Monitor - Three key confirmation signals to watch for market uptrend include market breadth, liquidity depth, and ETF trading volume [1][4] - Market breadth is currently below historical averages, indicating a need for broader stock participation in the rally [4] - Liquidity depth for S&P mini futures is approximately $4 million, still significantly below the historical average of about $13 million, suggesting market fragility [7] Group 3: Corporate Performance and Investor Behavior - Corporate earnings reports have been better than pessimistic expectations, with 46% of companies exceeding earnings expectations by more than one standard deviation [5] - Retail investor buying is likely to remain strong unless unemployment rates begin to rise [5] - The corporate buyback window is expected to be robust, with an estimated $1.45 trillion authorized for buybacks and $11.6 trillion executed, providing market support during earnings season [5] Group 4: ETF Trading Dynamics - The proportion of ETF trading volume reached a high of 44% on April 9, currently around 35%, indicating reliance on ETFs for hedging [7] - A decline in ETF trading volume below 30% would suggest reduced hedging demand and an increase in risk appetite [7]

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - The final consumer confidence index for April in the U.S. is 52.2, a significant drop from 57 in March, marking one of the lowest levels since the late 1970s [1] - Consumers expect an average inflation rate of 4.4% over the next 5-10 years, the highest since 1991, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates rising asset valuation risks and high U.S. Treasury yields, with global trade risks identified as the top threat to financial stability [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance and Predictions - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator signaling a potential new upward cycle, historically leading to a 100% success rate of gains in the following 12 months [3] - Despite the rebound, analysts caution that the market may face volatility due to macro uncertainties, particularly regarding trade negotiations [3][4] - Bank of America suggests that the rebound may not be sustainable unless three conditions are met: a trade agreement, a Fed rate cut, and resilient consumer spending [3][4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a record outflow of $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold ETF, the largest single-day outflow since 2011 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the current pullback in gold prices may present a buying opportunity, advocating for a 10% allocation in gold within investment portfolios [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive despite short-term risks, as inflation persists and the Fed maintains a neutral policy stance [5][7] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Novo Nordisk achieved a significant legal victory, allowing the FDA to take action against the production of generic versions of its diabetes and weight loss drugs, which had previously faced shortages [8] - The court ruling is seen as a positive development for Novo Nordisk, which has faced stock price declines due to competitive pressures and underwhelming new product performance [8] - The market for weight loss drugs is now highly competitive, with Novo Nordisk's main competitor being Eli Lilly, posing ongoing challenges for the company's stock performance [8] Group 5: Autonomous Driving Regulations - The U.S. Department of Transportation announced a major relaxation of regulations for autonomous vehicles, streamlining the accident reporting process and facilitating the commercial rollout of self-driving cars [10] - This regulatory change is particularly beneficial for Tesla, which plans to launch its Cybercab service in Texas, and may enhance the testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles [10] - Despite an 18% rebound in Tesla's stock, concerns remain regarding the company's performance metrics and the influence of CEO Elon Musk's political activities on stock volatility [10][11]

本周，美股市场将面临多重考验。苹果、微软、亚马逊和Meta等逾180家标普500指数成分股将密集发 布财报，同时美国月度就业报告和关键通胀数据将出炉，市场波动或加剧。 本周五，伯克希尔.哈撒韦将召开2025年度股东大会，"股神"巴菲特将与接班人格雷格.阿贝尔(Greg Abel)和保险业务主管阿吉特.贾恩(Ajit Jain)同台，回答股东提问。 美股市场迎来多项重磅数据 本周，包括苹果、微软、亚马逊和Meta等在内的180余家公司将发布季度财报，这些公司的市值占标普 500指数市值的40%以上。 其中，微软计划在周三收盘后发布最新财报，分析师预计，微软收入和收益将同比增长约10%。 Meta的第一季度财报也将在周三收盘后发布。市场分析师预计，第一季度公司利润和销售额将实现两 位数增长。目前，Meta股价已从历史高点下跌超过30%，由于估值较低和稳健的广告增长，Seeking Alpha的量化评级系统将其从卖出转为持有。 周四盘后，市场将迎来苹果的最新财报。分析师认为，下行风险已体现在苹果的股价中，预计每股收益 和收入将同比增长5%。 亚马逊预计在周四收盘后公布第一季度收益，分析师预计利润将增长38%。 目前 ...

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