欧洲央行管委穆勒：欧洲央行维持利率暂时不变是合理的。 ...

6月30日消息，欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，欧央行当前采取的利率立场被认为是正确的，且这一利率 政策与实现通胀回落至2%的目标相一致；鉴于目前存在的不确定性，必须保留所有关于利率调整的选 项。（新华财经） ...

智通财经6月30日电，欧洲央行副行长GUINDOS在马德里发表讲话表示，当前的利率立场是正确的，利 率政策与通胀向2%靠拢是兼容的。 ...

Group 1: Tariff Effects - Powell indicated that the proposed tariffs by the Trump administration could lead to a "one-time increase" in prices, but the actual impact may exceed traditional economic model predictions [3] - The final scale, implementation pace, and market response to tariffs will determine the inflation transmission path, with potential for short-term price pressures to evolve into persistent risks [3] - The Federal Reserve must be vigilant about tariffs amplifying inflation pressures through multiple channels, such as increased terminal prices due to rising import costs and accelerated consumer spending in anticipation of price hikes [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - In light of tariff uncertainties, the Federal Reserve's decision-making logic is becoming clearer, with Powell stating that the current tariff plan's scale far exceeds the pilot phase of 2018 [4] - Historical experience has limited reference value due to enhanced global economic interconnectedness, necessitating observation of actual tariff impacts on corporate pricing behavior and consumer responses before assessing policy response space [4] - The market's expectation of two rate cuts within the year remains uncertain, contingent on summer inflation data and trade negotiation progress [4] Group 3: Political Dynamics - Powell's cautious stance is directly related to policy divergences with the Trump administration, which continues to call for rate cuts to stimulate the economy [5] - Powell reiterated that monetary policy should be based on economic data rather than political considerations, amidst questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [5] - The initiation of the process to select Powell's successor by Trump has heightened market concerns regarding policy continuity, with Powell's term ending in May 2025 [5] Group 4: Market Impact - The interplay between tariff and monetary policies is injecting uncertainty into financial markets, particularly affecting gold prices as a safe-haven asset [7] - Gold prices may be supported by inflation expectations if tariffs drive actual inflation, while a softening economic data could accelerate easing and suppress gold price performance [7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor industry specifics related to tariff implementation, Federal Reserve officials' statements, and core PCE inflation data to capture signals of policy turning points [7]

捷克央行维持利率在3.5%不变，符合预期。 ...

捷克央行将 利率维持在3.5%，预估为3.5%。 ...

泰国央行：以6比1的投票结果决定维持利率不变。 ...

日本央行政策委员田村直树周三表示，央行应考虑毫不拖延地进一步加息，因为通胀可能比预期更早达 到目标。这位被视为鹰派的前商业银行高管认为，即使面对美国关税政策的不确定性，央行也可能需 要"果断"行动以应对不断增长的价格压力。 田村直树在福岛县对商界领袖发表讲话时表示： 通胀上升速度可能超过日本央行预测，迫使央行在全球不确定性环境下果断采取行动。实现 价格稳定目标的可能性很大，而且可能比预期更早实现。 这一表态明显比央行行长植田和男更为鹰派。植田和男此前强调，由于美国贸易政策存在"极高"不确定 性，有必要暂停加息。日本央行在上周的政策会议上维持利率不变。 田村直树的言论突显了央行内部在利率政策上的分歧。同日公布的6月会议意见摘要显示，政策委员会 内部存在更为谨慎的声音，一些委员认为在前景极不确定的情况下，央行暂时维持当前政策利率是合适 的。 通胀预期上升可能超出央行预测 田村直树表示，在特朗普4月宣布关税之前，基础通胀一直朝着实现央行2%目标迈进，并且上升速度略 快于预期。他认为，虽然美国关税将在一段时间内对日本经济和价格造成压力，但消费者通胀率可能在 2027财年期间维持在2%左右。 田村直树说道： 一直在上升 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and for silver is also cautiously bullish. The rating for arbitrage and options is to postpone [8]. Core Viewpoints - The Fed officials have differences on the interest - rate path, and geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver prices are affected by Fed policies and geopolitical situations. Gold prices are in a volatile pattern, and silver prices have strong fluctuations. The operation suggestions for gold and silver are to be cautiously bullish, while arbitrage and options operations should be postponed [1][8]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell believes the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait to consider interest - rate adjustments. However, there are differences within the Fed. Bostic expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut later this year, while others like Hammack think there is no urgent need to cut rates. Geopolitically, Trump has complex statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and regime change in Iran, and there are disputes over the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 771.86 yuan/gram, down 1.21% from the previous trading day. The volume was 248,445 lots, and the open interest was 147,344 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,750 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,739 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The volume was 446,808 lots, and the open interest was 341,852 lots [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 24, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.34%, down 0.01% from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 - year spread was 0.55%, up 5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 173 lots, and the short positions decreased by 614 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts increased by 50.23% to 501,680 lots. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions were 120 lots, and the short positions increased by 89 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts decreased by 9.30% to 795,077 lots [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 955.68 tons, down 1.72 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,877.49 tons, down 73.50 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 649.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 88.32, down 0.86% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 92.98, down 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,470 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 304,350 kilograms, down 30.01% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,282 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 66,330 kilograms [7]. Strategies - For gold, it is advisable to enter the market with a light position (10% - 15% position) at the current price and add to the position to about 30% near 730 yuan/gram, with a stop - loss at 708 yuan/gram. For silver, continue to buy on dips for hedging, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging near 8,640 yuan/kilogram for the Ag2508 contract, with a stop - loss near 8,590 yuan/kilogram [8].

鲍威尔（资料图） 鲍威尔在利率决议后的一席话，无意间点破了另一重经济悖论。他警告："美国政府的关税政策可能会加剧通胀水平，其影响持久且需要时间显现。"此言如 利剑刺穿政治幻象——特朗普引以为傲的关税壁垒，终将成为射向美国经济的回旋镖。当美联储试图以高利率对抗通胀，白宫的贸易战遗产却可能在背后釜 底抽薪。 2025年4月的国际资本流动报告如一石击水：中国当月再度减持82亿美元美国国债，持仓降至7572亿美元，稳居美国第三大海外债主之位。此际正值美债市 场风云激荡，中国却延续了自2022年4月以来的减持主旋律——三年来累计减持已逾2800亿美元。数据无声，却道尽一个事实：华盛顿的焦虑未能撼动北京 基于自身战略考量的冷静抉择。 大洋彼岸，特朗普的推文风暴再起。6月20日，这位美国现任总统候选人火力全开，将美联储主席鲍威尔贴上"太迟先生"标签，并抛出惊人之语——呼吁将 利率大幅砍至1%-2%区间，宣称此举"每年能为美国节省多达1万亿美元"。耐人寻味的是，此前屡次威胁解雇鲍威尔的特朗普，此刻竟话锋一转："也许，只 是也许，我得改变主意不解雇他了？"这番戏剧性表态，折射出白宫对经济压力的深切忧虑。 特朗普（资料图） 美联 ...