1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated with an upward bias. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.25%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.52%. It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of gold being weaker than silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The core logic is that in the short - term, the trade war has entered a new stage, and there are still risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the strategy of both gold and silver, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war in a new stage, economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases, and strong employment suppresses interest rate cut expectations. In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump escalated the trade war. Regarding the monetary attribute, Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects, and strong employment data has reduced the possibility of near - term interest rate cuts. In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Data**: Comex gold main contract closed at $3352.10 per ounce, down $18.20 (-0.54%) from the previous day and up $5.70 (0.17%) from last week. London gold was at $3351.15 per ounce, down $0.95 (-0.03%) from the previous day and up $35.80 (1.08%) from last week. Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 780.40 yuan per gram, down 1.00 yuan (-0.13%) from the previous day and up 4.18 yuan (0.54%) from last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Gold in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 100,900.00, an increase of 4,837.00 (24.93%); the top 10 totaled 129,456.00, an increase of 4,908.00 (31.98%); the top 20 totaled 153,715.00, an increase of 7,135.00 (37.98%). Among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,011.00, a decrease of 69.00 (2.97%); the top 10 totaled 17,864.00, an increase of 73.00 (4.41%); the top 20 totaled 21,371.00, an increase of 1,011.00 (5.28%) [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [5]. - **Data**: Comex silver main contract closed at $38.41 per ounce, down $0.67 (-1.70%) from the previous day and up $1.47 (3.98%) from last week. London silver was at $39.00 per ounce, up $1.50 (3.99%) from the previous day and up $2.75 (7.59%) from last week. Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 9225.00 yuan per kilogram, up 18.00 yuan (0.20%) from the previous day and up 272.00 yuan (3.04%) from last week [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of Shanghai Silver in futures companies of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 128,440.00, an increase of 2,145.00 (12.81%); the top 10 totaled 184,237.00, an increase of 295.00 (18.38%); the top 20 totaled 240,513.00, an increase of 1,291.00 (23.99%). Among the top 10 net short positions, the top 5 totaled 55,412.00, a decrease of 157.00 (5.53%); the top 10 totaled 86,681.00, a decrease of 1,753.00 (8.65%); the top 20 totaled 108,867.00, a decrease of 183.00 (10.86%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%. The Fed's total assets are $67132.36 billion. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 0.06 (2.37%) from the previous day and up 0.02 (0.78%) from last week. The US dollar index is 98.11, up 0.25 (0.26%) from the previous day and up 0.57 (0.58%) from last week [8]. - **Other Data**: The CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, the core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.80%. The unemployment rate is 4.10%. The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, up 70.59 (137.10%) from the previous day and down 22.80 (-15.74%) from last week. The VIX index is 16.84, down 0.36 (-2.09%) from the previous day and up 0.03 (0.18%) from last week [10][11]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate in different periods from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest rate [12].

智通财经7月15日电，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储应该降息3个点，"美国通胀非常低"。 ...

鉴于通胀非常低，美联储应当降息3个百分点。 美国总统特朗普：重申美联储现在就应该降息。 ...

智通财经7月15日电，特朗普重申要求美联储降息，称"消费者价格低"。 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，北光资产管理公司首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示，交易员们一直密切关注今日发 布的消费者价格指数报告，美联储或许更为关注——内部关于是否应立即降息的争论仍在持续。幸运的 是，今早的报告基本符合预期，核心（剔除食品和能源）数据显示通胀处于可控状态（例如，月度涨幅 低于预期，年度涨幅与2.9%的共识预期一致）。如果通胀确实保持可控，那么美联储就可以着手降息 ——最早可能在9月；但如果后续报告呈现不同态势，美联储将不得不维持现有政策更长时间。 分析师：美联储9月降息的前提是后续报告不会太差 ...

5. 主要市场反应：报告发布后，美国两年期国债收益率回吐小幅涨幅，黄金短线上下扫荡，美股三大股 指开盘涨跌不一。 订阅美国CPI +订阅 2. 核心通胀低于预期：剔除食品和能源后，美国6月季调后核心CPI月率经四舍五入后上涨录得.2%，连 续第五个月低于中位数预期。核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，符合预期，较前三个月2.8%的涨幅略有上升。 3. 主要分项一览：核心通胀受抑源于新车和二手车价格下跌，以及机票和住宿费用下降。与高通胀年份 相比，住房价格也较为温和，住房类价格单月上涨0.2%。关税上调的影响在多个品类中显现：家庭家 具价格上涨1%，为2022年1月以来最大涨幅；视频和音频产品价格上涨1.1%，为去年2月以来最大涨 幅；玩具价格单月上涨1.8%，为2021年4月以来最大涨幅。 4. 降息定价未变：由于更高的关税税率可能从8月开始生效，经济学家表示，6月通胀报告不太可能促使 美联储提前降息。利率期货仍显示，美联储在9月重启降息的可能性较大。 金十数据整理：美国6月CPI报告五大看点一览 1. 整体通胀符合预期：美国6月季调后CPI月率录得0.3%，符合预期，为1月以来的最大单月涨幅。这使 得美国6月未季调 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，TP ICAP数字资产主管Hina Joshi表示，比特币近期的上涨行情可能还有进一步上 行空间。她指出，金融机构普遍预计美联储将在今年晚些时候恢复降息，这将利好包括比特币在内的风 险资产。据LSEG数据显示，市场目前已计入年内近两次降息的预期。加密储备的增长、以比特币为基 础的企业战略日益增多，以及主权国家的逐步采用，都可能进一步推动比特币上涨。 比特币/美元 机构：比特币近期的涨势可能会进一步延续 ...

【导读】 美国6月核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，环比上涨0.2%，连续5个月低于预期！ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下美国最新的CPI数据， 该数据将影响美联储降息的决策。 美国核心CPI连续第五个月低于预期 美国6月核心通胀再次低于预期，已是连续第五个月，这主要受到汽车价格下跌的拖累。 7月15日晚间， 根据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心消费者价格指数（CPI）较5月上涨 0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。 高盛经济学家估计，美国消费者最终将承担约70%的关税直接成本。沃尔玛5月表示，迫于关税压力将被迫涨价。服装品牌拉夫 ·劳伦也表示正在考虑提价。 芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比上周五表示，持续的关税威胁使判断通胀走向变得更困难。他说："我们不断往里面添加新的不 确定因素，导致很难弄清楚'价格到底会上涨还是不会'，就像又把灰尘扬上了天。" 在商品方面，剔除食品和能源的大宗商品价格继上月持平后，本月上涨0.2%。值得注意的是，受关税影响较大的类别（如玩 具、家具、家电和服装）价格出现上涨，显示企业开始把更高的进口成本转嫁给消费者。与此同时，新车和二手车价格下降。 这份报告标志着通胀 ...

财料 6月CPI年率如期抬头，关税引发的通胀就此开始？7月美联储降息预期或彻底落空，9月还有希望吗？ -2% al the production of the production 2024 from 2024 person 207 016/2019 02 | CPI"金字塔" 除去食品、能源、 居住、二手车CPI 2.2% 除去食品、能源、 居住CPI 2.2% 除去食品、能 2.9% 源后的CPI 除去食品后的CPI 2.6% 整体CPI 2.7% (完菲 双 引居 03 | 重点分项CPI 5.6% 肉/禽/水产/蛋类 4.4% 非酒精饮料 在外就餐 3.8% 0.9% 粮食 食品 3.0% 0.9% 奶及奶制品 0.7% 蔬果 | 14.2% 天然气 5.8% 电力 燃料油 -4.7% -8.2% 内燃机用油 -8.3% 汽油 综合 *包含商品与服务 重点分类 12 能源 -0.8% 5% 四 Bu 986 fir 住房* 4.0% 手车 2.8% 酒精 1.4% 教育* 3.6% 88 2.79 the le.o 男 3 89 C th 14K1 04|美国各地区CPI 新英格兰地区 中部西北地区 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，蒙特利尔银行资本市场部美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen表示，考虑到当前的关税 环境，很难想象这份CPI报告会促使美联储在9月前降息。报告公布后美国国债表现平淡，这一现象或 许也说明了这一点。在通常情况下，人们可能会认为这份报告会开启关于美联储降息的讨论。可惜的 是，8月1日即将实施的新一轮关税将使美联储暂时维持现状。接下来，今日将有多场美联储官员讲话， 投资者会密切关注其中是否有任何近期政策暗示——即便目前这类指引出现的可能性不大。 蒙特利尔银行：很难想象这份CPI报告会促使美联储在9月前降息 ...