美联储的威廉姆斯：贸易政策将增加经济增长放缓的风险。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃 广州报道 票型罕见地分裂成三方，反映出政策制定者的分歧，英国央行行长贝利的发言却释放出些许鹰派信号。 此前市场还预期这次决议声明可能会删除"渐进谨慎"的一贯表述，加快降息节奏，但5月8日的发布会 上，贝利仍然强调货币宽松政策延续"渐进和审慎"的基调不松口。 略偏强硬的表态，打压年内降息预期，掉期市场显示6月份英国央行降息的概率由50%下降到20%左 右，助推英镑、英国国债收益率快速走高。 下次降息时机或再押后 英国央行的降息，早在市场的意料之中。3月份，英国消费者价格指数（CPI）连续第二个月回落，同 比增速从2月的2.8%降至2.6%。 通胀降温提供了成熟的条件，美国滥施关税则是这轮降息的主要动因。据新华社报道，英国央行指出， 美国对全球加征关税以来，全球贸易政策不确定性加剧，金融市场出现波动，这种不确定性和新的关税 措施导致全球经济增长前景变弱。 美国滥施关税对英国经济的冲击已经有所显现。标普日前公布的数据显示，4月英国综合采购经理指数 （PMI）从3月的51.5下跌至48.5，为2023年10月以来首次跌入收缩区间，服务业活动也在连续17个月扩 张后首次跌至荣枯线以下，主要由 ...

美联储理事巴尔：贸易政策增加了不确定性，导致经济前景变得黯淡，影响了消费者和企业的信心。 ...

Group 1 - The global cryptocurrency market has achieved a significant breakthrough, with Bitcoin's price surpassing $100,000, reaching $101,000 on May 9, 2025, marking its return to this psychological price level since February [1] - Bitcoin rebounded approximately 33% from a low of $76,000 in early April, closely linked to the positive shift in trade policies under the Trump administration [1] - The announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. and optimism regarding upcoming U.S.-China talks have boosted market confidence, leading to a rise in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [1] Group 2 - Accompanying Bitcoin's strong performance, cryptocurrency-related stocks have also seen a collective rise, with Coinbase up 6%, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) up 7%, and mining companies Riot Platforms and Mara Holdings up 7% and 8% respectively [3] - Traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the cryptocurrency market, with Morgan Stanley planning to offer cryptocurrency trading for E*Trade users and Charles Schwab set to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading this year [3] - The establishment of new Bitcoin investment companies, such as Nakamoto, which raised $300 million, and Twenty One, backed by SoftBank and Tether, indicates a growing interest in Bitcoin investments [3] Group 3 - Despite the positive market atmosphere, the cryptocurrency industry faces regulatory challenges, with Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal initiating an investigation into Trump's meme coin and stablecoin projects due to national security concerns [5] - Democratic senators are pushing for the "End Crypto Corruption Act," aimed at limiting government officials' involvement in digital asset issuance [5] - XBIT decentralized exchange platform is preparing to adapt to regulatory changes through technological upgrades and compliance measures to ensure safe and convenient trading for users amid uncertain policy environments [5]

Core Viewpoint - Han Gao Group's IPO registration has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, allowing it to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, despite facing challenges such as declining outdoor furniture sales and product quality issues [1][3][4]. Group 1: IPO and Financials - Han Gao Group plans to issue no more than 40.01 million shares, accounting for at least 10% of the total share capital, aiming to raise 420 million yuan for various projects including an automated manufacturing base and R&D center [3]. - The company has experienced consistent revenue growth, but its outdoor furniture sales have shown a downward trend, with sales volumes dropping from 300,000 units in 2021 to 173,400 units in 2023 [4]. Group 2: Sales Performance - Outdoor furniture sales revenue decreased from 238 million yuan in 2021 to 188 million yuan in 2023, with year-on-year declines of 8.23% in 2022 and 14.15% in 2023 [4]. - The company's overseas revenue also declined from 373 million yuan in 2021 to 270 million yuan in 2023, indicating a trend of decreasing international sales [5]. Group 3: Product Quality Issues - Han Gao Group has faced scrutiny for product quality, with its "Han Gao" brand smart clothes drying rack being listed among non-compliant products by the Jiangsu Consumer Protection Committee [6]. - The company has previously appeared on China's top ten quality blacklist for home products due to multiple instances of product non-compliance [6]. Group 4: Return and Exchange Trends - The return and exchange amounts for the company's e-commerce model increased from 9.06 million yuan in 2021 to 8.88 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to consumer returns during the no-reason return period [7]. - The total return and exchange amount across all channels was 12.46 million yuan in 2024, down from 16.16 million yuan in 2023 [8]. Group 5: Dealer Management Risks - The company has highlighted risks associated with dealer management, as a significant portion of its domestic revenue comes from offline dealers, which accounted for 49.81% to 57.44% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 [9][10]. - The number of dealers has fluctuated, with 80 new dealers added in 2022 but 49 exiting, indicating potential instability in dealer relationships [9].

美国经济的未来走向似乎正被两股力量拉扯。一方面，通胀预期的上升引发了市场的关注；另一方面， 就业市场的不确定性又为经济增长蒙上了阴影。纽约联储发布的最新月度调查揭示了这一复杂局面：美 国消费者的中期通胀预期在4月攀升至近三年的高点，而对就业市场的看法却出现了明显的恶化。 调查显示，消费者对未来三年通胀的预估中值在4月升至3.2%，这是自2022年7月以来的最高水平。这 一数据的变化可能暗示着消费者对未来物价上涨的担忧正在加剧。然而，这种担忧并非全面性的，因为 对未来一年通胀率的预期保持稳定，而对长期通胀率的预期甚至小幅降至2.7%。这种短期与中期通胀 预期的分化，反映出消费者对当前经济形势的复杂认知：他们既担心近期物价的快速上涨，又对长期经 济的稳定性保持一定的信心。 美联储官员正在密切关注这一趋势。他们试图通过消费者对未来物价压力的预期来评估政策变化，尤其 是贸易政策调整，是否会引发持续的通胀。关税政策的不确定性无疑是当前经济中的一个重要变量。关 税的范围和持续时间尚不明确，这可能导致消费者对未来通胀的不确定性加剧。贸易政策的变化不仅影 响到企业的生产成本和供应链布局，也可能通过进口商品价格的上涨传导至消费 ...

数据显示，美国家庭对当前及未来经济状况的评估急转直下，收入增长预期放缓，就业前景悲观情绪升 温，但消费支出预期却逆势增长，形成"收入悲观、消费顽强"的矛盾格局。 财务信心受挫，收入与就业预期双降 新华财经北京5月9日电 纽约联邦储备银行周四发布的消费者预期调查报告显示，美国总统特朗普4月发 起的全球贸易战已对美国民众财务信心造成显著冲击。 4月调查结果显示，美国民众对财务状况的乐观度较3月明显下滑。 受访者对未来收入和工资增长的预期普遍下调，失业率上升预期增强，求职难度加大的担忧亦同步攀 升。尽管经济不确定性增加，消费者短期支出预期却意外增长，折射出市场对即期消费的依赖与长期收 入信心不足的背离。 通胀预期分化，多领域价格压力持续 通胀预期呈现结构性差异：1年期通胀预期持平于3.6%，3年期预期升至3.2%（为2022年7月以来最 高），5年期预期微降至2.7%。公众对房租、汽油价格及大学学费的涨价预期显著升温，房价年度涨幅 预期从3%提至3.3%，显示通胀压力仍广泛存在于民生关键领域。 美联储维稳利率，政策应对存挑战 美联储周四宣布维持短期利率不变。尽管决策者认为经济总体健康，但特朗普政府的关税政策被视作潜 ...

英国央行提高了对2025年的GDP增长预期至1%，高于之前的预测值0.75%。与此同时，2026年和2027年 的增长率预计分别为1.25%和1.5%。通胀率预计将在第三季度达到3.5%的峰值，低于先前预测的3.7%， 主要受益于能源价格下降。长期来看，到2027年初，通胀率预计将回归至目标水平2%。 此外，英国央行警告称全球贸易政策的不确定性仍然是影响英国经济的关键因素，尤其是美国关税政策 的变化可能会给英国带来额外的成本和经济活动的冲击。 就在同日，美国总统特朗普宣布美英之间达成一项新的贸易协议，这是自今年4月对英国商品加征新关 税以来首次与受影响国家签订的相关协议。特朗普宣称，该协议"全面且深入"，涵盖大量新增市场准入 机会，并强调英国将取消许多针对美国产品的非关税壁垒。 然而，英国政府对此表现得更为谨慎。唐宁街10号发言人表示，谈判正在加速进行，并承诺首相会适时 提供更新。发言人重申首相斯塔默始终将国家利益置于首位，并视美国为重要的经济和安全盟友。分析 人士认为，鉴于缺乏具体条款说明以及英方的审慎态度，外界对这份协议的法律约束力和执行前景持保 留意见。 新华财经声明：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 ...

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：自4月以来，美国贸易政策取得了积极进展。 ...