周一（7月14日）欧盘时段，现货黄金重启涨势收复3370美元关口，今日金价早盘触及近3375美元/盎司的三周高点，随后回落，由于买家未能维持在周一早 些时候触及的较高水平，黄金价格再次面临抛售压力。 消息面解读：市场对于美联储将采取更加鸽派立场的预期也在支撑投资者对黄金的需求。美联储6月会议纪要显示，只有少数官员预计今年不会降息。并且 特朗普也预将在明年开始换任更加鸽派的主席，这也使得明年仍有3次降息前景。与此同时，美国贸易政策的新动向可能加剧市场波动。尽管美国已经正式 宣布对一些主要贸易伙伴的关税税率，但谈判可能会持续到8月1日，届时这些税率将生效。如果避险资金开始主导金融市场的行动，投资者越来越担心美国 经济因高关税而陷入低迷，金价可能在短期内上涨。相反，如果市场因新贸易协定的宣布而转为风险积极，黄金可能会继续承压。 黄金走势分析：黄金价格反弹越过3365后，那么上周分析的趋势失效，现在重新做一下解构。从四小时级盘面上观察，3353到3247这波的618位置在3375附 近，这里也是早盘触及的位置，本周先观察这里是否是一个转折位置，周一操作上秦氏金升建议是可以先以此位置上方一个点为保护去做空看下行，关注向 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [4] Core Views - The partnership between MP Materials and the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) aims to enhance domestic manufacturing capabilities for rare earth magnets, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains. This collaboration signifies a shift towards localizing critical supply chains amid rising geopolitical uncertainties [4][16][17] - The restructuring of key resource supply chains driven by geopolitical security concerns is expected to be a significant theme for future investment opportunities [4][17] Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong and U.S. tech stocks experienced fluctuations during the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025. The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5248.5, up 0.6%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.3 percentage points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 5696.3, up 0.9%, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices [7][9] - The uranium sector saw gains, with notable increases in companies such as Centrus Energy (+18%) and others [9] Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose to $3.61 trillion as of July 11, 2025, up from $3.32 trillion the previous week. The total trading volume for cryptocurrencies was $19.32 billion, accounting for 5.35% of the total market cap [19][26] - The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently in the "greed" zone, with a fear and greed index reading of 67 [23] Recent Important Events - The partnership between MP Materials and the DoD is a landmark event, reflecting the U.S. government's push for domestic production of strategic resources [16][17] - The cryptocurrency market saw significant inflows into core asset ETFs, totaling $2.718 billion for the week [28]

美国国债收益率转为下行，10年期收益率现小幅下跌至4.411%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ongoing uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies may lead to a reduction of 1 billion euros in German exports to the U.S. each month [1]

摩根士丹利：税改法案和业绩前景将提振美国大型股。 ...

当地时间7月12号，特朗普在他的"真实社交"平台上发了一封公开信，分别写给墨西哥和欧盟。这封信内容不长，但分量十足：从2025年8月1号开始，美 国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的所有商品征收30%的关税。 注意，是"所有商品"，不是挑着几个征，而是一个大锅端，一律30%。这已经不是敲山震虎了，这是直接扔雷。 那为啥要征税？特朗普自己说了：墨西哥要是能在打击贩毒集团、阻止芬太尼流入美国方面取得"实质性成果"，那美国可以考虑重新评估这个税率。换句 话说，如果你墨西哥能把毒品和非法药物管住，我们美国也可以考虑"谈谈"。 至于欧盟这边呢，特朗普的要求也很直接：你们要是愿意把市场向我们美国打开，把你们的关税、非关税措施、各种贸易壁垒都取消掉，我们再来聊关税 的事。不然，这30%的税，不是说着玩的。 大家好，今天咱们聊聊最近热腾腾的一件大事：特朗普又"开炮"了，而且这次是对着墨西哥和欧盟！ 首先是墨西哥。这几年美墨之间的贸易量非常大，汽车、电子、农产品各种各样的产业链早就深度绑定。你说突然来个30%的关税，墨西哥的出口企业怎 么办？他们的货要是进不去美国，价格直接涨一大截，那还怎么跟别人竞争？反过来，美国市场上这些商品价格也可能 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the stability of the US 10-year Treasury yield, which remains around 4.42% as investors await the upcoming inflation data [1] - Analysts suggest that if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data exceeds expectations, it could reignite market speculation regarding a more hawkish interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, potentially driving yields higher and limiting the downside for the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed by the U.S. Congress is expected to further increase the fiscal deficit, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy in the medium term [3][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" - The act is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion from FY2025 to FY2035, surpassing the previous estimate of $2.8 trillion [5]. - The act extends tax cuts from Trump's first term but reduces government spending through measures like cutting child tax credits and lowering renewable energy subsidies [4][5]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the annual fiscal deficit could exceed $2 trillion, which is over 6% of GDP, indicating a significant fiscal challenge ahead [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context of Tariff Revenue - Historically, tariffs were a major source of U.S. government revenue, accounting for up to 90% of total revenue from 1790 to 1860, but this has significantly declined over the years [6][7]. - By 2024, tariffs are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to total U.S. fiscal revenue, which is a modest recovery compared to historical levels [8]. Group 3: Recent Trends in Tariff Revenue - In June, U.S. tariff revenue exceeded $27 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates, indicating a potential short-term boost to fiscal income [9][10]. - The increase in tariff revenue may be influenced by temporary factors, such as strong import activity, which may not be sustainable in the long run [10][11]. Group 4: Uncertainties Surrounding Tariff Policy - The sustainability of current tariff rates is uncertain, as potential negotiations with trading partners could lead to reductions in tariffs, impacting future revenue [11][12]. - The overall economic impact of tariff policies on U.S. growth and fiscal revenue remains unclear, with potential retaliatory measures from other countries posing additional risks [12][13]. Group 5: Need for Comprehensive Fiscal Solutions - Relying solely on tariff revenue to address the growing fiscal deficit is insufficient, as even optimistic projections suggest limited contributions relative to the overall deficit [14]. - Achieving medium-term fiscal balance will require a multifaceted approach beyond just increasing tariff revenues [14].

在上轮全球关税战的阴影还未散去时，特朗普却已经挑起了新一轮的关税大棒。这一次，特朗普似乎没有从过去的教训中吸取多少经验，而是再度挑战了全 球市场的稳定，结果惹来了不少国家的反击，尤其是巴西和日本。事态愈演愈烈，世界开始意识到，曾经的美国霸主地位正悄然崩塌，全球的"领导者"似乎 正面临"众叛亲离"的局面，霸权的夕阳正在慢慢降下。 回顾2025年4月的关税战，许多国家已经看清了特朗普政府的真实面目。特朗普所推行的"美国优先"政策，不仅仅局限于对外压迫，更连自己的盟友也未能 幸免。无论是欧盟、日本、韩国、加拿大，还是巴西、阿根廷，几乎所有和美国有着紧密经济联系的国家都遭遇了关税制裁。从这些国家的角度来看，它们 或许该重新审视与美国的关系，是为了成为真正的盟友，还是仅仅充当美国经济体系的"保护伞"或"踏脚石"。在特朗普的政策面前，友谊早已被现实经济利 益所遮蔽。 加征关税意味着进口商品的成本上升，商品价格随之上涨，最终由消费者和企业承担这份"过桥费"。然而，面对不断上涨的关税压力，很多国家并未屈服。 巴西便是其中之一。在特朗普加税后，巴西并未选择忍气吞声，而是迅速转向中国，寻求更为稳定的贸易伙伴。在2025年4月，巴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, including the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the supply and demand of domestic soybeans and soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the growth of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10][11][13]. - The soybean meal market is also in a volatile pattern. The short - term demand for soybean meal is weak, but the low inventory of oil mills and the uncertainty of US soybean weather support the price. The market is mainly focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good weather in US soybean - growing regions suppresses the price. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall of US soybeans [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. The soybean meal market is in a weak - volatile pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainty in US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: The US soybean harvest area, yield, and output have changed slightly. The期末库存 of old - crop soybeans has decreased, and the export and crushing volumes have remained relatively stable. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also shown certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The planting, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other growth stages of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing different progress [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 are also presented, showing different rates compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and good weather, showing a weak - volatile trend. The weather in US soybean - growing regions and the progress of Sino - US tariff wars are the main factors affecting the market [33]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has increased due to the global tariff war initiated by the US. The US soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [33]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans has reached a high in June, with the peak postponed and the overall volume increasing [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, and the demand for forward stocking has increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased year - on - year [37][39][41]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement of domestic soybean meal has slightly decreased, and the pick - up volume has declined from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has rebounded recently, while the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [46][48][52]. 3.7 Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, affected by the relatively stable trends of US soybeans and domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a stage of shock adjustment, and the soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for new guidance [65]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal market has rebounded this week, affected by US soybeans and increased domestic supply. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a technical rebound stage, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the supply - demand pattern of US soybeans and soybean meal [67]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, the progress of Sino - US trade relations and tariff wars, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [69]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement [70]. - The less important factors are macro - economic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine conflict [70].