Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain high, with recent conflicts between India and Pakistan highlighting global uncertainties, leading to a rebound in oil prices. As of May 9, Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 4.0% and 4.6%, respectively, closing at $63.88 and $61.06 per barrel [1][2] - China's dependence on oil imports is projected to be 72% and natural gas imports at 43% in 2024, indicating significant external challenges to energy security amid geopolitical tensions and tariff conflicts. The "Big Three" oil companies in China are responding to national calls for increased reserves and production, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% in upstream capital expenditure from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring OPEC+ production decisions and the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as these factors could significantly impact the oil supply outlook. The potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports could disrupt oil prices [3] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - The report highlights multiple disturbances in the oil supply and demand landscape, including trade agreements and geopolitical negotiations that could affect oil prices and supply stability [3] - The report suggests that the long-term oil supply-demand structure remains favorable, supporting a positive outlook for the "Big Three" oil companies and oil service sectors [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Sinopec, CNOOC, and their respective oil service subsidiaries. It also suggests monitoring leading companies in the refining and chemical sectors, as well as coal chemical leaders and ethylene producers [4]

4月末，西班牙、葡萄牙遭遇大停电，法国局部地区也受到短暂影响。此次大停电是近年来欧洲记录到 的最严重事件之一，共计超5000万民众生活被彻底打乱，交通、通信、医疗等关键领域停摆。这场停电 暴露出能源转型进程中的深层矛盾，不仅敲响了全球能源体系变革的警钟，也为我国能源转型提供了镜 鉴。究竟是什么原因，让欧洲国家陷入如此困境？ 电网升级是能源转型的关键。此次停电暴露了欧洲电网系统的脆弱性，而我国电网系统也面临类似挑 战。过去的电网架构，是基于传统能源特性设计建设的，随着新能源大规模接入，电网的智能化、灵活 性和韧性至关重要。我们需要加快构建新型电力系统，加强跨区域电网互联互通，提升电网的调节能力 和应急响应能力，确保在面对极端天气、技术故障等突发情况时，能够快速恢复供电。 应急机制是应对危机的保障。西班牙、葡萄牙大停电事件中，政府的应急响应至关重要。我国应进一步 完善能源应急机制，建立健全的应急预案和应急管理体系。在面对突发停电事件时，能够迅速启动应急 响应，优先保障关键设施供电，维持社会秩序。 西班牙、葡萄牙大停电事件是一次惨痛教训，让人们看到了能源转型中可能面临的风险和挑战。我国正 处于能源转型关键时期，既要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Oil and Gas Pipeline Group is emphasized as a crucial entity for ensuring energy security in China, with a focus on reform, innovation, and efficient management of pipeline operations [1][2] Group 1: Company Operations and Development - The National Pipeline Group has successfully implemented a unified planning, construction, and operation strategy, leading to a significant improvement in the organization, management, and governance efficiency since its establishment [1] - The company is encouraged to accelerate the integration of pipeline resources and expand effective investments, focusing on key pipeline projects and interconnectivity initiatives to enhance supply and competition in the oil and gas market [2] Group 2: Safety and Risk Management - A strong emphasis is placed on safety development, with the need for comprehensive safety production responsibilities and the establishment of a transparent regulatory system to ensure the safe and stable operation of the pipeline network [2] Group 3: Reform and Innovation - Continuous reform and innovation are highlighted as essential, with a focus on enhancing operational management, improving group control capabilities, and fostering autonomous innovation through the development of smart pipeline systems [2] Group 4: Political and Organizational Leadership - The importance of strengthening the leadership and construction of the Party within the company is stressed, with initiatives aimed at enhancing the political and organizational functions of grassroots Party organizations and promoting a clean political environment [2]

国防军工行业点评 ➢ 投资建议：我们认为，核能作为我国新型战略能源，具有长期成长价值，核 聚变重点项目的持续推进和 SMR 供电项目论证或将加速行业发展。建议关注： 可控核聚变：【真空室与结构件】国光电气、安泰科技、旭光电子、国力股 份、合锻智能、兰石重装、国机重装；【超导】西部超导、精达股份（上海超导）、 联创光电、永鼎股份；【热交换系统】东方电气；【电源系统】弘讯科技（EEI）； 【特种金属】西部材料（天力复合） 模块化反应堆：【总体/运营】中国核电；中国广核；【工程/零部件制造】中 国核建；佳电股份；中密控股；景业智能；应流股份；江苏神通；中核科技；【特 种金属】久立特材；中洲特材；图南股份。 ➢ 风险提示：可控核聚变相关研发进度不及预期；核能政策变化等。 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 分析师 尹会伟 执业证书： S0100521120005 邮箱： yinhuiwei@mszq.com 分析师 孔厚融 执业证书： S0100524020001 邮箱： konghourong@mszq.com 分析师 冯鑫 执业证书： S0100524090003 相关研究 可控核聚变进入发展关键期；S ...

在美国深陷关税战之际，中国趁低价狂囤2.5亿桶原油，4月进口量更是创18个月新高。中国这是在为什 么做准备？ 关税战开打之后，西方媒体不禁跌破眼镜：原以为中国的石油需求会稍微消退，谁料到居然大逆转！ 【西方媒体发现，2.5亿桶石油正运往中国】 【特朗普向全世界打响关税战】 更值得一提的是，中国的一些炼油厂甚至推迟了年度保养计划，就是为了趁着利润率高，猛造汽油、航 空燃油这些热门产品。看来，这真是个大家都想挤上去分享蛋糕的好时机。 当然，还有一个非经济因素，地缘政治的风卷云涌。中国和石油输出国关系良好，不把俄罗斯、伊朗、 委内瑞拉等国拒之门外。这些国家面临西方制裁，急需市场，于是降低油价，用薄利多销的策略维持出 口。 据说，俄罗斯的乌拉尔原油价格，就比国际油价便宜个10美元左右。这种情况下，中国企业能不动心 吗？ 不过，事情也没这么简单。中国还在利用这一机会扩充能源储备。因为有分析认为，未来美国或许会打 美元霸权的牌，影响中国的能源进口。 今年4月，中国原油日均进口量飙升至约1100万桶，比1月份增加了近200万桶，刷新18个月来的新纪 录。粗略一算，这相当于至少2.5亿桶石油入库。这到底咋回事？ 首先，我们得 ...

Core Insights - The large-scale power outage in Spain and Portugal on April 28 has raised concerns about energy security and the reliability of electrical infrastructure in Europe [1][2][3] Group 1: Incident Overview - The power outage led to significant disruptions, including transportation paralysis, medical emergencies, and a near-total halt of social activities [2] - Initial investigations revealed three prior power failures in Spain before the major outage, with the last incident occurring just 19 seconds before the blackout [2] - The outage resulted in estimated insurance losses of between €100 million and €300 million for Spain, with supermarkets alone facing losses of €53 million due to disrupted cold chains [2] Group 2: Causes and Investigations - The Spanish government and experts have denied that the reliance on renewable energy sources was the cause of the outage, despite media speculation [4][5] - The Deputy Prime Minister emphasized that all potential causes are being investigated, analyzing over 750 million data points [3][4] - Various theories regarding the cause of the outage include atmospheric disturbances, cyberattacks, and disruptions in the Spain-France grid interconnection [5][6] Group 3: Infrastructure and Future Risks - Experts have highlighted the need for investment in electrical grid modernization and infrastructure to prevent similar incidents in the future [6][7] - A survey indicated that 44.2% of respondents believe modernizing the grid is crucial, while 41.7% advocate for increased investment in critical infrastructure [6] - The incident has prompted warnings from U.S. officials about potential large-scale outages in the U.S. this summer, citing aging infrastructure and rising electricity demand [7][8]

Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $2.1 billion for Q1 2025, representing a 13% increase year-over-year, driven by growth across both segments and the LinkWest acquisition [29] - Adjusted EBITDA was $243 million, up 17% from the previous year, with an EBITDA margin of 11.8%, an increase of 40 basis points [29] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.98, reflecting a 27% increase, primarily due to a lower share count from repurchases [29] Business Segment Performance - Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) revenues were $1.5 billion, up 14% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $145 million, an 11% increase [31] - Sustainable Technology Solutions (STS) revenues reached $550 million, a 12% increase, with adjusted EBITDA of $124 million, up 20% [32] - The Brown and Root joint venture continues to grow, approximating $1.4 billion in annualized revenue, contributing positively to STS performance [32] Market Dynamics - The company noted a growing pipeline of LNG and energy security projects, with strong demand for ammonia in the fertilizer market [21][96] - The international operating capability positions the company to capture potential geographical shifts in energy markets [24] Strategic Direction - The company is focused on executing its growth strategy, increasing bid volumes, and winning new contracts, while maintaining a balanced and resilient business portfolio [10][40] - The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, with over $150 million in buybacks in Q1 2025 [34] Management Commentary - Management expressed confidence in the financial outlook for 2025, reaffirming guidance for revenues between $8.7 billion and $9.1 billion [37] - The company is monitoring geopolitical factors and their potential impact on business, particularly in defense and space sectors [50][90] Other Important Information - The company achieved a record low total recordable incident rate of 0.05 in 2024, highlighting its commitment to safety [6] - The company is transitioning to a new reporting approach for disaggregated revenues, aligning with industry standards [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on the backlog growth in STS? - Management noted a shift in some geographies from energy transition projects to energy security, but remains confident in the STS portfolio [45][47] Question: How confident are you in mid-single-digit organic growth for MTS? - Management highlighted a strong alignment with defense budget priorities and increased funding for human space exploration, indicating confidence in growth [49][51] Question: What is the status of the $2 billion in awards under protest? - Management acknowledged the trend of protests in government awards and expects resolutions in the second half of the year [53][55] Question: How is customer satisfaction trending for HomeSafe? - Customer satisfaction has increased to just under 90%, driven by technology adoption and improved customer care services [78][80] Question: What is the outlook for LNG projects? - Management indicated that LNG activity has increased globally, with various projects at different stages of development [64][84]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of nuclear power globally, particularly in China, highlighting significant investments and approvals for new nuclear projects as part of a broader strategy to enhance energy security and transition to cleaner energy sources [4][8][20]. Group 1: Nuclear Power Development in China - On April 27, 2023, the Chinese government approved five nuclear power projects with a total investment exceeding 200 billion yuan, marking a significant shift in nuclear energy policy [4][5]. - The approval of 10 nuclear units in one go is unprecedented and reflects a change in the regulatory environment following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, where nuclear projects faced stringent restrictions [6][10]. - As of 2023, China has 58 operational nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of approximately 60 million kilowatts, ranking second globally, and an additional 54 reactors under construction [12][13]. Group 2: Global Trends in Nuclear Power - Other major countries are also ramping up nuclear power initiatives, with France, the UK, South Korea, and India announcing plans to build new nuclear reactors, reversing previous trends of downsizing nuclear energy [7][20]. - The shift towards nuclear power is driven by the need for stable and reliable energy sources amid global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and climate change [20][24]. Group 3: Advantages of Nuclear Power - Nuclear power is highlighted as having superior competitiveness compared to other energy sources, providing stable and controllable electricity generation without the carbon emissions associated with fossil fuels [22][23]. - The increasing demand for electricity, particularly from energy-intensive industries like AI, necessitates the expansion of nuclear power to meet future energy needs [26][27]. Group 4: Safety and Technological Advancements - China's nuclear power industry is noted for its strong safety record, with no significant incidents reported since 2025, and advancements in third and fourth-generation nuclear technologies enhancing safety measures [29][40]. - The construction and operational costs of Chinese nuclear projects are significantly lower than those in other countries, contributing to faster project completion and increased competitiveness in the global market [40][41].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue was $682 million, up 13% year over year, with growth in both segments [23] - Adjusted EBITDA was $130 million, also up 13% year over year, driven by robust growth in government operations [23] - Adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.91, a 20% rise compared to $0.76 last year [24] - Free cash flow for the quarter was $17 million, with capital expenditures at $33 million, or 4.9% of sales [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Government operations revenue grew by 14%, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $117 million and a margin of 21.1% [27] - Commercial operations revenue was $128 million, up 10% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $14 million and a margin of 10.9% [28] - The backlog for commercial operations reached a record $1.3 billion, up 39% from the previous quarter and 78% year over year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. government continues to prioritize naval nuclear fleet and nuclear modernization, creating opportunities for BWXT [7][12] - In Canada, significant investments are being made in nuclear generation capacity, with potential new builds expanding to nearly 20 gigawatts [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - BWXT is focused on expanding its nuclear services portfolio and enhancing manufacturing capacity in North America [9] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term investments in clean nuclear power and energy security [6] - The acquisition of Connectrix and expansion of the Cambridge manufacturing plant are part of the strategy to meet growing customer demand [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to weather macroeconomic disruptions due to long-cycle contracts and a strong balance sheet [10] - The administration's focus on nuclear energy and shipbuilding is seen as a positive for future growth [46] - Management anticipates a modest growth outlook for government operations in 2025, with a revenue CAGR of 3% to 5% in the naval propulsion segment [12] Other Important Information - The company completed the acquisition of AOT and is actively pursuing opportunities in the special materials sector [14] - BWXT is involved in the Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations Program, which aims to provide energy security for U.S. military bases [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Negative EACs impact on government operations - Management confirmed that negative EACs were split between commercial and government operations, with recovery expected in the second half of the year [35][36] Question: Funding opportunities from recent appropriations - Management indicated limited direct funding opportunities from the continuing resolution but expressed optimism about potential benefits from the reconciliation bill [39][40] Question: Updates on the reconciliation package and shipbuilding - Management noted funding for defense enrichment and nuclear reactors in the reconciliation bill, with a positive outlook for nuclear shipbuilding [44][46] Question: Impact of raw material costs on commercial operations - Management acknowledged that raw material cost issues would affect margins in the first half of the year but expected recovery in the second half [48][49] Question: Timeline for Moly approval and contracting - Management hopes for approval in 2025 but acknowledged potential delays into early 2026 [56][57] Question: Updates on the enrichment contract and pilot program - Management detailed the conceptual stage of the pilot plant and the complexities of using unobligated materials for enrichment [65][68] Question: BWXT's entry into SPR management - Management highlighted their experience and qualifications as key factors in winning the SPR management contract [99][100] Question: Progress on Actinium-225 production - Management confirmed they remain the largest commercial producer of Actinium-225 and are exploring multiple production modalities [102][104]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue was $682 million, up 13% year over year, with growth in both segments [21] - Adjusted EBITDA was $130 million, also up 13% year over year, driven by robust growth in government operations [21] - Adjusted earnings per share increased to $0.91, a 20% rise compared to $0.76 last year [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Government operations saw a revenue increase of 14%, driven by naval propulsion and special materials [24] - Commercial operations revenue was $128 million, up 10% year over year, led by growth in medical and commercial power [25] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for government operations was 21.1%, while commercial operations saw a margin of 10.9%, down 100 basis points due to unfavorable mix and cost absorption [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The commercial operations backlog reached a record $1.3 billion, up 39% from the previous quarter and 78% year over year [15] - The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission authorized the construction of the first BWRX 300 unit, marking a significant milestone for North America's first SMR project [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its nuclear services portfolio and enhancing its manufacturing capacity in North America [7][17] - BWXT is positioned to benefit from long-term investments in nuclear technologies driven by decarbonization and increasing electricity demand [5][6] - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in government contracts, particularly in energy security and environmental restoration projects [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to weather macroeconomic disruptions due to long-cycle contracts and a strong balance sheet [8] - The administration's focus on naval nuclear fleet and nuclear modernization is expected to support a revenue CAGR of 3% to 5% in the government operations segment [11] - The market for nuclear medicine is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by increasing volumes of SPECT and PET scanning procedures [20] Other Important Information - Free cash flow for the quarter was $17 million, with capital expenditures at $33 million, or 4.9% of sales [21][23] - The company expects full-year free cash flow to be between $265 million and $285 million [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Were the negative EACs all at government operations? - The negative EACs were about half from commercial operations and half from government operations, with specific impacts noted in the fuel business [32][33] Question: Do you see BWXT as in line to get any of the funding from the recent appropriations? - There is optimism regarding potential funding from the reconciliation bill, particularly for domestic defense enrichment and DoD nuclear reactors [36][42] Question: Can you provide an update on the Actinium-225 effort? - The company remains the largest commercial producer of Actinium-225 and is exploring multiple production modalities [98] Question: What is the status of the enrichment contract and pilot program? - The pilot program is in the conceptual stage, focusing on designing a pilot plant for centrifuge-type enrichment technology [62][63] Question: How is the company managing the zirconium cost impact? - The company has strong relationships with customers that allow for a path through mechanism to mitigate unforeseen risks related to raw material costs [89]