美国总统特朗普愿意缓和贸易战的举动，不仅引发了美股大涨，还降低了经济衰退的可能性——至少目 前如此。 费城联储汇编的一项针对华尔街顶级经济学家的新调查显示，如果排除新冠疫情时期，美国经济增速将 放缓至16年来最慢水平。 预测者预计，美国国内生产总值（GDP）2025年将增长1.4%。这比在贸易战爆发前预计的2.4%增长率 大幅下降。 中国与美国上周就贸易协议达成重要共识，特朗普此前4月份的针锋相对引发了市场对全球经济衰退的 担忧。目前这种休战使得华尔街集体松一口气，并成为股市复苏的催化剂。 Comerica Bank首席经济学家Bill Adams说："我认为经济衰退的风险看起来比一个月前低得多。" 然而，经济未来的道路绝非坦途。 一方面，持续的贸易战并未结束。90天暂停期后，特朗普可能会改变主意。即便近期有所下调，美国现 有关税水平仍将维持在几十年来的最高水平。 BMO Capital Markets首席经济学家Douglas Porter表示："虽然贸易方面的消息无疑没那么糟糕，但远不 能令人放心。" 更重要的是，贸易冲突产生的种种不确定性使得家庭和企业在消费、招聘和投资方面犹豫不决。过去几 个月信心暴跌 ...

杰米.戴蒙作为摩根大通(JPM.US)首席执行官的生涯正在接近尾声，然而他在华尔街和美国政界的影响 力却可能正处于巅峰。 正因如此，投资者或许还没有做好送别这位69岁高管的准备。研究摩根大通多年的富国银行分析师 Mike Mayo直言："他们在说，'杰米.戴蒙，别走!'"Mike Mayo补充称，他拥有"前所未有的公众影响力， 而这种影响力与他在摩根大通的职位密切相关"。 美国银行析师Ebrahim Poonawala表示，戴蒙的继任是摩根大通股价的"最大单一特殊风险因素"。因此， 当投资者齐聚摩根大通曼哈顿总部，参加本周一年一度的投资者日活动时，戴蒙未来计划的问题将成为 他们考虑的首要问题。 这次活动为这位首席执行官和其高管团队提供了一个机会，以介绍这家美国最大银行的最新运营情况。 一些高管，例如消费金融负责人Marianne Lake，被视为戴蒙的潜在接班人选。 在摩根大通去年的投资者日上，戴蒙曾向投资者透露，他的退休时间表"不到5年"。而在今年1月的一次 分析师电话会议上，他再次表示，自己的"基本情况"是将在几年内卸任。 尽管戴蒙多次暗示他作为摩根大通掌门人的时间已经不会很多，但2025年发生的种种事件 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold's mid - line upward trend remains intact, with increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. For those with a bearish bias, the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade can be considered. Silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Overnight, London gold rebounded by over $130/ounce from $3120/ounce due to the dim prospects of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's revision of its monetary policy framework. However, the Iran - US nuclear deal negotiations and the outlook for Iranian crude oil exports pressured oil prices and weakened gold's safe - haven and inflation - hedging demand. As of May 16 Asian session, London gold weakened and adjusted to $3210/ounce. Currently, the gold price has adjusted to around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level since the rally in late 2024, where there may be some support. Gold's safe - haven demand is significantly boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies, but silver is relatively weak under industrial demand pressure [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 752.79, up 1.65%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8,121, up 1.16%; Gold T + D closed at 747.28, up 1.62%; Silver T + D closed at 8,062, up 1.19% [5]. - **Mid - line Quotes**: In early April, Trump's tariff measures shocked the global market and pressured global financial assets including gold. However, due to Trump's actions damaging the US dollar's credit, the triple safe - haven demand drove the London gold price to break through $3500/ounce on April 22. Although the Sino - US trade situation and geopolitical tensions have eased, the mid - level upward trend of gold remains good. The long - and mid - term factors driving gold prices will continue to exist, but short - term surges and high price - to - earnings ratios also mean increased volatility [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Iran - US Nuclear Deal Negotiations**: Trump said the US is close to reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, but an Iranian source said there are still gaps to bridge. Negotiations ended in Oman on Sunday, and further talks are expected due to Iran's uranium - enrichment activities [17]. - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: Putin refused to meet Zelensky face - to - face in Turkey and sent a second - tier delegation. Zelensky will send a delegation led by the defense minister. Trump and US Secretary of State Rubio said they have low expectations for the talks [17]. - **US - UAE Relations**: Trump promised to strengthen US - UAE relations, announcing deals worth over $200 billion and deeper cooperation in the AI field. Etihad Airways will invest $14.5 billion in Boeing aircraft [18]. - **US Retail Sales**: US retail sales growth slowed significantly in April. After a 1.7% increase in March, it rose only 0.1% in April, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. Core retail sales excluding certain items decreased by 0.2% [18]. - **China's Urban Renewal**: China aims to make significant progress in urban renewal by 2030, with increased support from central budgetary investment and special ultra - long - term treasury bonds [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a recommendation to reduce positions in the market, particularly in the main board and small-cap sectors, due to signs of a potential market reversal and weakening economic fundamentals [1][5]. - The recent market rebound is noted, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.12% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.76%, but the overall trend is seen as reversing after a series of gains [2][4]. - Economic indicators show a weakening trend in the domestic economy, with M1 growth significantly below market expectations, reinforcing the view that the economic performance in April was impacted by tariff shocks [3][4]. Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the recent market movements are driven by speculative trading rather than institutional or public fund adjustments, with a significant withdrawal of speculative funds observed [4][5]. - The current market conditions are compared to those of May 2012, suggesting a high similarity in technical characteristics, which raises concerns about potential market corrections [4][5]. - The recommendation for the main board is to maintain a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector is also advised to keep a low position due to the relative weakness observed [5]. Group 3 - The analysis highlights the impact of recent U.S. economic news, including the rejection of a tax cut proposal and the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, which are expected to have negative implications for the U.S. economy and, consequently, for global markets [3][4]. - The focus on the automotive industry is suggested as a short-term momentum model to watch, indicating potential opportunities despite the overall cautious stance [5].

瑞士央行行长施莱格尔：我们不预期瑞士会出现经济衰退。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：今年的经济增长率可能为1%或0.5%。预计经济增长放缓，但我认为不会出现衰退。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty in the economic environment is unlikely to resolve quickly, and while economic growth is expected to slow, a recession is not anticipated [1] Economic Growth Outlook - Economic growth for the year is projected to be between 0.5% and 1% [1] - The expectation of a single interest rate cut this year is due to ongoing uncertainties [1] Inflation and Trade - There may be pressure from tariffs contributing to inflation, which the economy will need to withstand [1] Transition Period - The economy is currently undergoing a "significant transformation" [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework, stating that zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario and that there is a need to reconsider the language around labor market slack and average inflation rates, with April PCE expected to drop to 2.2% [1] - Fed official Barr warned that while the U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation [1] - Barclays revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth from -0.3% to 0.5%, no longer expecting a recession in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Global Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea in 2025 from 0.7% to 1.1% and for Vietnam from 5.3% to 5.5% [3] - The Bank of Mexico cut its interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%, with an expected average core inflation rate of 3.4% for the fourth quarter, up from a previous forecast of 3.3% [3] Group 3: Currency and Trade Developments - Reports suggest that the U.S. is considering unilaterally modifying its trade agreement with Japan during tariff negotiations [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1,065 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [4] - Japan's first-quarter GDP fell short of expectations, leading markets to anticipate a delay in interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks stated there is no need to rush into rate cuts, indicating that market expectations for the next meeting are appropriate [4] - Barclays adjusted its Eurozone economic growth forecast from -0.2% to 0%, while cautioning that uncertainty risks remain [4]

周五(5月16日)亚市盘中，现货黄金短线突然快速下滑，金价目前跌至3211.31美元/盎司附近，日内大跌 28美元。本交易日将迎来美国5月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、美国4月进口物价指数月率、美国4 月营建许可年化总数初值、美国4月新屋开工年化总数，投资者需要予以关注。另外，需要继续关注乌 克兰和俄罗斯的会谈，留意美国总统特朗普的动态消息。 【要闻回顾】 尽管关税休战最初缓解了市场对经济衰退的担忧，但MacroHive策略师本杰明·福特指出，市场已"耗尽 了"该声明带来的积极影响。 彭博社的一篇报道澄清称，美国在贸易谈判中并未寻求美元贬值，但由于市场对贸易政策波动的持续担 忧，以及全球对美资产需求下降，美元仍面临压力。安盛投资研究所重申了对美元的看跌前景，理由是 资本持续流入欧洲、亚洲和新兴市场。 在备受关注的讲话中，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，由于经济结构变化，长期利率可能维持高位。他指出， 当前环境中供应冲击更加频繁，可能导致通胀波动加剧。鲍威尔表示，尽管长期通胀预期仍锚定在美联 储2%的目标附近，但央行此前接近零利率的政策不太可能重现。 自2024年底以来，美联储一直将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间 ...

当地时间5月15日，美联储主席鲍威尔在第二届托马斯·劳巴赫研究会议上发表讲话。 鲍威尔称，未来通胀可能更加波动，美国 可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续时间也更持久的时期，这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑战。 大型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.86%。亚马逊下跌2.42%，META下跌2.35%，特斯拉下跌1.40%，谷歌母 公司Alphabet下跌0.85%，苹果下跌0.41%，英伟达下跌0.38%；仅微软上涨0.23%。 摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon表示，美国经济面临陷入衰退的重大风险。 "倘若衰退来临，我无法预判其严重程度或持续时间。我 们或许能避免，但此刻绝不能排除这种可能性。"Jamie Dimon表示，他倾向于采纳该行经济学家的研判——当前经济衰退概率 接近五五开。 来源：中国经济网微信综合上海证券报、中国证券报、中国基金报 监制：乔申颖 审核：彭金美 编辑：张萌 校对：徐蕾洁（见习） 鲍威尔称， 美联储正在对其总体政策制定框架进行调整，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的重大转变。 鲍威尔表示，自2020年以来，经济环境发生了重大变化。美联储五年前采用了目前的框架 ...