Market Performance - On October 3, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 recording six consecutive daily gains, reaching new historical highs. The Dow rose by 0.51% to 46,758.28 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.01% to 6,715.79 points, both setting new closing records. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.28% to 22,780.51 points [1]. - For the week, the Dow gained 1.1%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.32%, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.09% [2]. Sector Performance - Popular technology stocks mostly declined, with AMD down nearly 3%, Meta down over 2%, and Tesla down over 1%. In contrast, Apple rose by 0.35%, reaching a historical high. The weight loss drug concept and cryptocurrency mining companies saw significant gains, with Coinbase and Eli Lilly rising over 2%, and Novo Nordisk and Pfizer increasing over 1% [2]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.15% for the week, with many popular Chinese stocks declining, including a drop of over 4% for Global Data and nearly 4% for Li Auto. However, Baidu saw an increase of over 1% [2]. Commodity Market - On October 3, U.S. oil futures rose by 0.35% to $60.69 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.42% to $64.38 per barrel. However, both contracts experienced weekly declines of 7.65% and 6.99%, respectively. Analysts from JPMorgan indicated that the oil market is moving towards a significant oversupply [3]. Economic Data and Government Shutdown - Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, the Labor Statistics Bureau was unable to release the monthly employment data report as scheduled. This shutdown affects various critical statistical data releases, including the Consumer Price Index, which is set to be published in mid-October [4]. - Economic analysts believe that the current economic situation in the U.S. is complex, characterized by weak employment and persistent inflation. The inability to release important data will hinder the Federal Reserve's assessment of whether economic stimulus is necessary [4]. Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan called for a more aggressive rate cut, suggesting that if policies deviate from the intended path, adjustments should be made quickly. He believes the current policy is more restrictive to growth and requires a looser monetary environment [6]. - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson reiterated that without supportive monetary policy, the U.S. job market may face pressure. He noted that inflation remains above the 2% target, while signs of weakening in the job market are evident [7].

Market Performance - The majority of European and American stock markets closed higher on October 3, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both reaching new closing highs [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.51% to 46,758.28 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.01% to 6,715.79 points, marking six consecutive days of gains for both indices [2][3] - The Nasdaq index, however, fell by 0.28% to 22,780.51 points, despite a weekly increase of 1.32% [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan advocated for a more aggressive rate cut approach, suggesting that current policies are overly restrictive for growth [5] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% [5] - Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson emphasized the need for supportive monetary policy to prevent pressure on the U.S. job market, noting that inflation remains above the 2% target [5] Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government entered a shutdown on October 1 due to a lack of funding, marking the first shutdown in nearly seven years [7] - The shutdown has halted the release of key economic data, including monthly employment statistics, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's economic assessments [7] Emerging Markets and Capital Flows - Emerging market stocks saw a net inflow of $8.4 billion, marking the seventh consecutive week of inflows, driven by strong market performance [8][9] - Global stock markets experienced a net inflow of $26 billion last week, with technology stocks attracting $9.3 billion, a record high [9] Commodity Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.14% to $3,912.10 per ounce, and silver futures rising by 3.45% to $47.97 per ounce [11] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.35% to $60.69 per barrel, despite a weekly decline of 7.65% [13]

当地时间10月3日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰再次呼吁采取更激进的降息路径，但同时强调自己与其他决 策官员的分歧"并不像外界想象的那么大"。米兰在接受采访时表示，如果政策偏离轨道，就应"以相对 快速的步伐进行调整"。他认为当前政策实际对增长的限制性更强，因此需要更宽松的货币环境。（央 视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, with a probability of 91.1%, indicating a trend towards cheaper borrowing globally [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a global signal, influencing other countries, including China, to follow suit to prevent capital outflow and support domestic markets [2][3]. - China's real estate market is under pressure, with a reported 8% decline in funding for property companies and a 10.5% drop in personal mortgage loans from January to August [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges in the Real Estate Market - Historical precedents, such as Japan's experience in the 1990s, suggest that rate cuts do not guarantee rising property prices, as seen with a 53% drop in Japanese housing prices from 1991 to 2005 [4][5]. - Current demographic trends show a significant decrease in the primary home-buying age group (20-35 years), with a population decline and an increasing elderly demographic, leading to reduced demand for housing [5][6]. - The average housing area per person in China is 42 square meters, indicating an oversupply of housing relative to demand, with a 3.1% increase in unsold properties from January to August [6][7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Selling Pressure - There is a prevailing sentiment that housing prices will not recover, with former central bank officials stating that future price increases are unlikely, undermining the belief in perpetual price growth [7][8]. - The current market dynamics show that sellers are more anxious than buyers, with a notable urgency to sell properties, especially in lower-tier cities where prices have dropped by 0.35% in September [8][9]. - Properties that are older, lack amenities, or are located in less desirable areas are particularly at risk, with recommendations to sell such assets quickly to avoid further depreciation [9][10].

美联储洛根：我们确实需要对进一步降息保持谨慎。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.01%, reaching a historical high [1] - The Nasdaq increased by 0.19%, and the S&P 500 rose by 0.46% [1] Technology Stocks Performance - Large-cap tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla declining over 2%, while Google, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft saw gains [3] - Specific stock movements included: - Google A: $243.125, down 1.04% [4] - Nvidia: $189.265, up 0.20% [4] - Amazon: $222.860, up 0.20% [4] - Tesla: $425.950, down 2.31% [4] - Apple: $258.287, up 0.45% [4] - Microsoft: $519.540, up 0.74% [4] - Meta: $718.908, down 1.12% [4] Rare Earth Stocks Surge - U.S. Rare Earth stocks experienced a significant surge, with USA Rare Earth shares rising over 21% following confirmation of discussions with the White House [5] Chinese Stocks Performance - Most popular Chinese stocks declined, with Xpeng Motors down over 5%, Li Auto down over 4%, and NIO down over 3% [6] - Specific stock movements included: - Xpeng Motors: $22.607, down 5.05% [6] - Li Auto: $25.350, down 1.86% [6] - NIO: $7.585, down 3.87% [6] Economic Data Delays - The U.S. government's shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including September's non-farm payroll changes and unemployment rate [8] - The Labor Secretary indicated that investment activity in the employment sector is becoming evident, with data expected to be released once the government reopens [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee estimated the September unemployment rate to be around 4.3% [9] - Goolsbee noted that the labor market remains stable but expressed caution regarding potential rate cuts, observing deterioration in the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment [10] - New Fed Governor Milan emphasized the importance of data for policy-making and expressed hope for data availability before the next FOMC meeting [11]

新华财经开罗10月3日电（记者张健）埃及央行10月2日发表声明说，埃及央行将基准利率下调100个基 点，调整后的隔夜贷款利率和隔夜存款利率分别为22%和21%。 埃及央行降息的理由是通胀压力有所缓解，经济增长强于预期。埃及央行将继续密切监测经济和金融形 势，引导通胀率在2026年第四季度达到7%（±2个百分点），在2028年第四季度达到5%（±2个百分 点）。 今年以来，埃及央行已实施了四次降息，总降息幅度为 6.25%（625个基点）。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

洛根已暗示，当官员们在10月28-29日再次开会时，她可能不会支持再次降息。"政策似乎并未超过温和 限制性的范畴，"她说，并补充说这是合适的，因为官员们仍应继续对通胀施加下行压力。 她承认就业存在风险，但表示整体而言，劳动力市场看起来"相当平衡"。 达拉斯联储主席洛根继续保持谨慎，并暗示她在10月议息会议上可能不会支持降息…… 达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，在通胀风险仍比失业率上升的威胁更突出的情况下，决策者在考虑进一步降 息时应保持谨慎。 "我看到通胀正运行在我们当前2%的目标之上，"洛根周四在德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的一场问答环节 中说，并补充说，她预计关税将在未来几个月推高通胀。 因此，她说，"我的预测是，政策路径的正常化速度会稍慢一些，以确保我们能完全达到2%。所以这将 需要一些时间。" 在9月份进行了今年的首次降息后，美联储决策者们对于是否以及应以多快速度进行额外降息，持有截 然不同的观点。 古尔斯比周四在接受采访时说，"我认为这表明劳动力市场存在一定的稳定性，而且经济仍在相当稳固 地增长。" 古尔斯比还表示，在政府关门期间，由于缺乏官方政府统计数据，官员们可以转向替代数据。他指向了 芝加哥联储的一项分析， ...

Core Insights - The Australian housing market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by previous interest rate cuts by the central bank, despite no further cuts announced in the September meeting [1][3][4]. Group 1: Housing Market Trends - Almost all capital cities in Australia have seen record high housing prices due to the effects of credit easing from prior interest rate cuts [1]. - Brisbane has shown a particularly strong price increase, with a 1.1% rise in September and a cumulative increase of 6.9% for the year [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has reduced the cash rate from 4.35% to 3.6% since February, a total decrease of 75 basis points, which has been crucial for the housing market's activity [4][6]. - The reduction in interest rates has improved borrowing capacity by approximately 7%, boosting consumer confidence, which is essential for making significant financial decisions [7]. Group 3: Central Bank's Stance - Despite the ongoing housing market strength, the RBA decided to maintain the current interest rates in September, prioritizing inflation control over further rate cuts [9]. - The RBA acknowledges the structural supply shortage in the housing market, indicating that government measures to increase housing supply will take time to show results [9]. - Current market expectations for a significant rate cut by the end of the year have diminished, with only a 40% probability of the cash rate dropping to 3.35% [9]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall economic situation remains stable, with inflation rates returning to the target range of 2-3% and an unemployment rate around 4.2% [9]. - Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that while the RBA's decision may not align with the desires of mortgage holders, the cumulative rate cuts since February have been beneficial for the economy [12].

经济观察网据央视新闻消息，记者当地时间10月2日获悉，埃及中央银行货币政策委员会当天决定，将 基准利率下调100个基点，调整后的隔夜存贷款利率分别为21%和22%。这是埃及央行自今年年初以来 连续第四次降息。埃及央行称，此次降息幅度符合预期。 ...