1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided documents. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint On June 26, 2025, equity index futures declined, while 30 - year CGB rose; metal futures trended strongly, and agricultural product futures fell. The top three gainers were coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal, and the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview On June 26, equity index futures declined, 30 - year CGB rose, metal futures were strong, and agricultural product futures fell. Coking coal, poly - silicon, and silicon metal were the top gainers, with coking coal rising 3.6% and positions increasing 7.7% month - on - month, poly - silicon rising 3.5% and positions decreasing 3.7% month - on - month, and silicon metal rising 2.7% and positions increasing 4.8% month - on - month. Rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and No.2 Soybean were the top decliners, with rapeseed meal falling 2.7% and positions increasing 8.9% month - on - month, soybean meal falling 2.4% and positions decreasing 0.8% month - on - month, and No.2 Soybean falling 1.6% and positions decreasing 12.0% month - on - month [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise - **Silicon Metal**: On June 26, it increased by 2.7% to 7720 yuan/ton. There was news of a furnace shutdown at an enterprise, but the supply - demand contradiction remained unrelieved, keeping silicon prices under pressure. On the supply side, northern large - scale manufacturers resumed production, and southwest China entered the wet season with reduced electricity prices and new capacity launches. On the demand side, downstream demand was weak, with polysilicon producers cutting output. Social inventories continued to accumulate, but futures prices made the market more cost - effective, and warehouse receipt inventory was liquidated faster, supporting near - month contracts [16][17][18]. - **TSR20**: On June 26, it increased by 2.6% to 12145 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 2.1% to 14040 yuan/ton. External shocks subsided, and prices may follow overall commodity volatility. The trading focus may return to fundamentals, but rubber's fundamentals had limited short - term variables. Supply was affected by the rainy season, and demand was relatively stable in the short - term but weak in expectation. In the third quarter, de - stocking trades may prevent a deep decline [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Rapeseed Meal**: On June 26, it decreased by 2.7% to 2550 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.4% to 2936 yuan/ton. Domestically, soybean meal had both supply and demand growth, while rapeseed meal faced weakening in both. In the short - to - medium term, soybean arrivals were expected to increase, oil mill operating rates would remain high, and soybean meal inventories were rising seasonally. In the long term, breeding sow inventory growth indicated stable and increasing rigid demand for soybean meal, and there were expected supply gaps in the fourth quarter [31][32][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News The Ministry of Commerce has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports to the EU and will strengthen approval work. The NDRC will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in program in July and will launch and intensify the implementation of the equipment renewal loan interest discount policy [38]. 3.2.2 Industry News The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the "Hong Kong Policy Declaration on Digital Asset Development 2.0". The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to list offset printing paper futures and options [39][40].

金 融 期 货 研 究 期货研究 中证500 5838.25 ↓0.41 2352.2 IC2507 5809.2 ↓0.29 -29.05 396.7 34054 ↓16156 76012 ↓5170 | | | | | 期指：或偏强震荡为主 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3946.02 | ↓0.35 | | 3281 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3920.8 | ↓0.20 | -25.22 | 386.6 | 32802 | ↓15447 | 65458 | ↓6183 | | IF2508 | 3908.2 | ↓0.27 | -37 ...

Group 1 - In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, marking a negative growth rate for the first time in five months [1][2] - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [2] - Despite the profit decline, the operating income of these enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 1.1% [2] Group 2 - The mining industry saw a profit decrease of 29.0%, while the manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 5.4% [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector's profit grew by 7.2%, contributing significantly to the overall industrial profit growth [3] - Seven out of eight industries within equipment manufacturing reported profit growth, with notable increases in electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment [3] Group 3 - The "Three Aviation" industries (aerospace, aviation, and maritime) significantly boosted related industries, with profits in these sectors rising by 56% [4] - The aircraft manufacturing sector saw a remarkable profit increase of 120.7%, driven by successful commercial operations and new achievements in space exploration [4] - The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing industries also experienced substantial profit growth, with metal ship manufacturing profits increasing by 111.8% [4] Group 4 - The smart consumer device manufacturing industry saw profits double, reflecting the impact of the "Two New" policy aimed at large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacements [5][6] - The general and specialized equipment sectors reported profit increases of 10.6% and 7.1%, respectively, contributing to overall industrial profit growth [5] - The government has allocated significant funding to support equipment updates and consumer product replacements, with ongoing projects across various sectors [6]

6月27日，国家统计局公布的最新数据显示，按可比口径计算，5月份规模以上工业企业利润同比下降9.1%，前五个月同比下降1.1%。规模以上工业企业利 润同比增速再为负值。 分析认为，这主要受有效需求不足、工业品价格下降及短期因素波动等多重因素影响。其中，投资收益等短期因素的上年同期基数较高对利润增速形成拖 累。但也需要看到，工业企业毛利润、营收保持增长，为企业下阶段盈利恢复创造有利条件。 | 1 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1 | | 多重因素影响工业企业利润下降 最新数据出炉。 数据显示，1—5月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额27204.3亿元，同比下降1.1%。 国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，前五个月规模以上工业企业实现利润总额比前四个月增加6034.1亿元，但是受有效需求不足、工业品价格下降及短期 因素波动等多重因素影响，同比为下降。 从利润构成看，投资收益等短期因素的上年同期基数较高，下拉1—5月份规上工业企业利润增速1.7个百分点。 虽然企业利润同比下降，但同期规模以上工业企业实现营业收入同比增长2.7%。于卫宁表示，从营业收入扣减营业成本计算的毛利润角度看，规模以上工业 企 ...

文字早评 2025/06/27 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.22%，创指-0.66%，科创 50-0.57%，北证 50-0.91%，上证 50-0.34%，沪深 300-0.35%， 中证 500-0.41%，中证 1000-0.45%，中证 2000-0.18%，万得微盘+0.15%。两市合计成交 15832 亿，较上 一日-196 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、国家发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于 7 月下达。 2、小米汽车：6 月 26 日晚 7 点，小米首款 SUV，小米 YU7 正式发布。 3、天风国际证券的证券交易牌照已升级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务。 4、特朗普称美国与伊朗将于下周对话，他表示以色列和伊朗之间的冲突可能很快再次爆发。 资金面：融资额+69.18 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率-0.10bp 至 1.370%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+1.01bp 至 2.8747%，十年期国债利率-0.18bp 至 1.6489%，信用利差+1.19bp 至 125bp；美国 10 年期利率+0.82bp 至 4.29%，中美利差+0.82bp 至-264. ...

4. 马士基周四晚间表示，根据近期的发展情况，并考虑到目前已达成的停火协议，我们预计一旦确认安全风险降低，就有望 重新开启出口货物的接收。阿什杜德港口的运营仍在继续，尽管我们正密切关注局势。 5. 据CNN报道，四位知情人士透露，特朗普政府已讨论可能帮助伊朗获取至多300亿美元资金用于建设民用核能项目、放宽制 裁并解冻数十亿美元被限制的伊朗资金——这些均是其为促使德黑兰重返谈判桌而加大努力的一部分。 早盘速递 2025/6/27 热点资讯 1. 国家金融监督管理总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险业普惠金融高质量发展实施方案》。《实施方案》明确，未 来五年基本建成高质量综合普惠金融体系，普惠金融促进共同富裕迈上新台阶。普惠金融服务体系持续优化，普惠信贷体系巩 固完善，普惠保险体系逐步健全。 2. 国家发展改革委召开6月份新闻发布会。会上，国家发展改革委政研室副主任李超表示，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特别 国债的支持力度是3000亿元，前两批一共1620亿元，已经按照计划分别在今年1月份和4月份下达。并将在7月份下达今年第三 批消费品以旧换新资金。 3. 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表视频讲话指出，美国袭击了核设施 ...

Key Points - The article discusses various important announcements and developments in different sectors, including government policies, corporate news, and market trends. Group 1: Government Policies - The State Council issued a plan to improve the credit repair system, focusing on ten aspects to standardize the process, including unifying credit information platforms and simplifying application materials [3] - The Central Committee and the State Council released opinions on river protection and governance, aiming for a modern flood prevention system by 2035, improved water resource utilization, and enhanced ecological quality [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the third batch of funds for consumer goods replacement will be distributed in July, ensuring the policy is implemented throughout the year [4] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability regarding rare earth export approvals, indicating a commitment to facilitating compliant trade [4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration and the People's Bank of China released a plan for the high-quality development of inclusive finance over the next five years [4] Group 2: Corporate News - Xiaomi launched the new car model YU7 with a starting price of 253,500 yuan, achieving over 289,000 pre-orders within one hour [9] - Alibaba Group reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, with a net profit increase of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [10] - Companies such as Cangzhou Mingzhu and Guosheng Jinkong reported normal operations without any undisclosed significant information [11][12] - Northern Navigation announced its business operations remain stable with no significant changes [13] - Yongda Group indicated that some offline stores are selling related products, contributing less than 0.02% to the company's revenue [14] - The stock of Songyang Resources will be suspended due to a planned change in control [15] - Huate Dain's shareholder increased their stake to 1% and plans to continue buying more shares [19] - APT Co. received a project designation for brake calipers and EPB, with a total sales amount of approximately 640 million yuan [20]

Company Movements - Honor has officially launched its A-share IPO, with the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Commission approving its listing guidance. If successful, Honor is expected to become the first AI terminal ecosystem company listed in A-shares, reshaping the capital market's AI sector [8] - Alibaba Group reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, with a net profit increase of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan. The company also announced a reduction in its partnership, with nine partners exiting, leaving a total of 17 [9] - Xiaomi has launched its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, starting at 253,500 yuan, achieving over 200,000 pre-orders within three minutes and 289,000 within an hour. Additionally, Xiaomi introduced AI glasses priced from 1,999 yuan [9] - Dongfeng Motor Group announced the establishment of a new company aimed at integrating resources across the entire value chain to accelerate the development of its independent passenger vehicle business [9] - FWD Group plans a global offering from June 26 to July 2, 2025. The company, founded by Li Zeqi in 2013, operates in ten Asian markets and achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time in 2024 [10] - Yushun Technology's founder revealed that the company has over 1,000 employees and annual revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan [11] Investment News - The Hong Kong government released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," aiming to position Hong Kong as a global innovation center in the digital asset sector [6] - As of June 24, 2025, 40 institutions have upgraded their licenses to provide virtual asset trading services, including 38 brokerages, one bank, and one internet company [6] - The IPO fundraising amount in the Hong Kong stock market has reached 95.929 billion HKD this year, marking a year-on-year increase of 758.8% [6] - The total scale of stock ETFs has returned to over 3 trillion yuan, reaching 3.05 trillion yuan, the second-highest level in history [6] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting to discuss the implementation of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to stabilize market expectations and enhance market confidence [6]

Domestic News - Xiaomi launched its SUV YU7 with a starting price of 253,500 yuan, achieving over 289,000 pre-orders within one hour [3] - The first AI glasses were also released by Xiaomi, priced starting at 1,999 yuan [3] - Honor has received listing counseling registration from the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau, marking a significant step towards its A-share IPO [5] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a meeting to implement the "1+6" policy for sponsor institutions in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods will be distributed in July [5] - A new generation of domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, has been released [5] - The Ministry of Commerce provided updates on the approval of rare earth export applications to the EU, confirming that a certain number of compliant applications have been approved [5] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration and the People's Bank of China jointly released the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries" [5] - Guidelines for the adjustment of the basic medical insurance directory and the commercial insurance innovative drug directory for 2025 have been issued, marking the first inclusion of commercial insurance innovative drugs [5] International News - The U.S. Treasury Secretary requested Congress to remove the "899 retaliatory tax clause" [5] - The yield spread between U.S. 5-year and 30-year bonds has surpassed 101 basis points, the steepest since 2021 [5] - The EU summit did not reach an agreement on a new round of sanctions against Russia, but agreed to extend existing sanctions for six months [5] - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic began; first-quarter GDP data was revised downwards [5]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China remains stable, supported by proactive macro policies and measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development [1] - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous month [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1] - Fixed asset investment showed steady growth in the first five months, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5% [1] Energy Supply and Demand - High temperatures in northern China are expected to increase the national peak electricity load by approximately 10 million kilowatts during the summer peak [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is enhancing electricity supply capabilities and has established energy supply plans for various provinces [2] - As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [1] Agricultural Production - Summer grain production, which accounts for about 20% of the annual grain output, is crucial, with over 90% being winter wheat [3] - Significant improvements in agricultural irrigation infrastructure have bolstered drought resistance, with over 100 million acres of high-standard farmland established [3] - The comprehensive mechanization rate for crop farming exceeded 75% by the end of last year, with agricultural technology contributing over 63% to production progress [3] Policy Support and Investment - The "Two New" policies have been reinforced, with sales of related products exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [3] - The first batch of special long-term bonds for equipment upgrades has allocated approximately 173 billion yuan to 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [3] - The NDRC plans to issue the third batch of funds for consumer goods replacement in July, ensuring the orderly implementation of the policy throughout the year [4] Renewable Energy Development - As of the end of May, installed capacities for wind and solar power reached 570 million kilowatts and 1.08 billion kilowatts, respectively, accounting for 45.7% of total installed capacity [4] - The utilization rate of renewable energy remains above 90%, with ongoing efforts to enhance the capacity for renewable energy consumption [4]