Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][7] Core View - The soybean meal price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to macro - policy impacts, despite weak downstream demand and slow inventory clearance in domestic oil mills. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans. The corn price is expected to fluctuate slightly downward in April, affected by factors such as high port inventories, high inventory in deep - processing enterprises, and sufficient substitute supply [3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2934 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+1.56%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2552 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+1.67%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] - Exports: Anec raised the May export forecast of Brazilian soybeans to 14.52 million tons and Brazilian soybean meal to 236,000 tons. As of May 18, the EU's 24/25 - year - to - date imports of soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed were all higher than the same period last year [2] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2324 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2659 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4][5] - Sowing Progress: As of May 18, the US corn sowing progress was 78%, ahead of the historical average, and the emergence rate was 50% [5] Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - The monthly intended planting area report has some impact on US soybean prices, but the market focuses more on end - of - month policies. The US tariff policy and China's counter - measures have escalated Sino - US trade tensions, which will affect Sino - US soybean trade. Although Brazil's soybean harvest is good this year, the increasing import demand from other countries for Brazilian soybeans has strengthened the Brazilian premium, raising domestic import costs and supporting the domestic soybean meal price [3] Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: The sale of on - the - ground grain has basically ended this month, and the remaining corn is mainly in the hands of traders. High inventories at north - south ports suppress the corn price. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises have relatively high inventories, and feed enterprises mainly sign long - term contracts, with stable demand. - Policy: The tariff policy has a positive but limited impact on the market sentiment. The small price difference with wheat and the upcoming large - scale wheat harvest in June pose challenges to the corn price [6] Strategy - For soybean meal: Neutral - For corn: Neutral, with the corn price expected to fluctuate slightly downward in April [3][7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The USD/CNY exchange rate showed a weak and volatile trend from late April to early May, with the stage high around 7.35 and then falling back to 7.27. The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday due to multiple factors such as improved Sino - US trade expectations, a callback in the US dollar index, and a warming of market risk appetite. The US dollar index fell about 4.5% in April, a relatively large monthly decline in recent years. The implied volatility of options first rose and then fell, and the implied volatility of call options declined, making the RMB exchange rate more two - way fluctuating [4]. - In April, China's macro data weakened month - on - month but was better than expected overall, while US growth data fell short of expectations. China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0, indicating short - term pressure on the manufacturing industry, but the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion range of 51.5, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4, with the service industry's recovery momentum continuing. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in April slipped to 48.7, and the first - quarter GDP was - 0.3%, driving the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index significantly lower; during the same period, China's CESI continued to rise and was higher than that of the US at the end of April [4]. - The Sino - US interest rate spread remained inverted, the short - end interest rate spread became more stable in its fluctuations, and more statements on trade policies brought short - term disturbances to the exchange rate. The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in April slightly pushed up the short - end yield of US Treasuries, while the yield of Chinese government bonds remained low due to policy expectations, pushing the spread structure to stabilize at a high level. The basis and swap points of USD/CNY rose simultaneously, indicating that the market was re - evaluating the exchange rate path. Sino - US frequent statements on tariff issues from April to May, although no clear policies were implemented, strengthened the policy game signal and affected market pricing and trading behavior [5]. - The deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales narrowed, and the capital flow improved. In March 2025, the deficit in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales dropped to $2 billion, a significant reduction from February. The willingness to settle and purchase foreign exchange in the forward market both increased, with the settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts rising to 50.51% and the purchase rate of foreign exchange payments rising to 58.88%. The surplus in banks' foreign - related payments and receipts on behalf of customers reached $49.2 billion, and the net inflow of funds under the goods trade increased 1.2 times year - on - year, still being the main supporting force. The capital account deficit narrowed to $13 billion, with foreign investors continuously net - buying RMB bonds, and the allocation of bonds and equities improved simultaneously, indicating that foreign funds' preference for RMB assets had recovered [5]. - The RMB is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to enter a period of shock consolidation. Against the background of the callback of the US dollar index, the repair of the Sino - US expectation gap, and the warming of market risk appetite, the RMB has been relatively stable. Looking ahead, the exchange rate direction will still be comprehensively affected by Sino - US trade policies, signs of a slowdown in the US economy, and related policy expectations, and the stage - by - stage fluctuations may intensify. Short - term trend judgment still needs to closely monitor event evolution and data feedback [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. USD/CNY Exchange Rate - General Situation - From late April to early May, the USD/CNY exchange rate was generally weak and volatile, falling from a high of around 7.35 in mid - April to around 7.27 in early May, with the RMB strengthening intermittently. The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday, reflecting the combined effects of Sino - US trade easing expectations, US dollar adjustment, and a warming of market risk appetite. The US dollar index continued to decline in April, with a monthly decline of about 4.5%, one of the larger monthly declines in recent years. The decline was mainly affected by the weak economic growth in the first quarter of the US and the market's uncertain expectations about the Fed's interest - rate cut path this year [10]. 2. Volume - Price Observation - From April to early May 2025, the volatility of the USD/CNY options market generally increased, but signs of a local decline began to appear. Compared with March, the implied volatility from April to early May was generally stronger, indicating that the market's expectation of exchange - rate fluctuations had increased. However, in early May, the implied volatility of the call side of USD/CNY options declined, narrowing the gap with the put side, suggesting that the market's expectation of the US dollar's unilateral appreciation had weakened [17]. - The RMB counter - cyclical factor has been running below 10% steadily, indicating a stable exchange - rate operation. The 3 - month interest rates of offshore and onshore RMB have remained inverted, indicating a tight supply of offshore funds. However, in May, the inversion margin narrowed slightly, reflecting a marginal easing of cross - border liquidity tension [17]. - In early May, the yield of US Treasuries was generally higher than the average in April, especially at the short end, and the market's bet on the Fed's short - term policy shift has weakened. Nevertheless, the yield of 10 - year US Treasuries has fallen from the high in April, indicating that long - term interest rates are still in an adjustment channel. The yield of Chinese government bonds was weaker than last week and last quarter, and the market's expectation of further flexible adjustment of domestic policies has increased [17]. - The basis and swap points of USD/CNY generally showed an upward trend, reflecting the market's need to re - price the exchange - rate fluctuation direction in the short term under the influence of the Sino - US interest - rate spread and market risk - aversion demand. The change in the exchange - rate price is still coupled with the macro - expectation, but the directional signal is not clear, and it mainly shows structural adjustment and defensive pricing for event catalysis in the short term [18]. 3. Macroeconomic - Chinese Macroeconomic Data - In April 2025, China's economic sentiment indicators generally declined, but domestic demand, high - tech manufacturing, and the service industry maintained a certain degree of resilience. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling back into the contraction range, indicating a phased decline in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. However, the high - tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, reflecting the continued structural optimization trend [32]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, slightly lower than the previous month but still in the expansion range, indicating that the service and construction industries generally maintained a recovery momentum. The new order and business expectation indicators increased month - on - month, indicating an improvement in market demand and business confidence. However, the employment index remained below the critical point, indicating that the recovery of business employment was still slow. In general, the composite PMI output index in April was 50.1%, lower than the previous month, indicating that the economy generally maintained expansion but with a slowdown in momentum [32]. 4. Macroeconomic - US Macroeconomic Data - In April 2025, the US macro data presented a combination of "stable employment, declining manufacturing, and policy wait - and - see", and the market's expectation of the Fed's policy path has been adjusted. The non - farm payroll data in April showed that the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 138,000, indicating that the labor market remained resilient. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, the same as the previous value, and the labor - force participation rate rose to 62.6%, with the participation rate of the core labor - force group aged 25 - 54 reaching a seven - month high, reflecting a solid employment foundation. However, the non - farm payroll data for March and February were revised down by a total of 58,000, indicating that the previous employment growth may have been overestimated [35]. - In terms of manufacturing, the ISM manufacturing PMI in April dropped to 48.7, back into the contraction range, the largest monthly decline this year. Detailed data showed that the new order and output indicators both weakened significantly, and the employment index declined for the third consecutive month. The increase in input costs and order uncertainty caused by tariff policies are weakening enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory and expand production. The final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 50.2, also lower than the initial value and expectations, further verifying the lack of growth momentum in the manufacturing industry [36]. 5. RMB Three - Factor Fitting - As of early May, the Sino - US Treasury yield spread generally remained inverted. Recently, the short - end yield of US Treasuries rebounded rapidly due to better - than - expected non - farm payrolls, while the yield of Chinese government bonds remained low under the influence of policy expectations, leading to a slight stabilization after an increase in the short - end spread inversion margin [38]. - From April to early May 2025, there were more statements related to Sino - US trade policies, and the market's attention to tariff - policy changes increased. As of early May, neither side had announced a specific negotiation schedule or clear policy documents, but both had shown a willingness to communicate. The market generally believed that there was still uncertainty about the pace of policy implementation. Under this background, the external - demand sub - index of China's manufacturing industry weakened in April, and the US ISM manufacturing survey also showed that tariffs had an impact on the cost side and delivery rhythm [45][46]. - In April 2025, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) showed an expanding difference in Sino - US macro - expectations. China's CESI rebounded and turned positive, reflecting that the domestic macro data were generally better than expected, mainly due to the improvement in high - tech manufacturing, non - manufacturing business activities, and export data, which drove the market's expectation of short - term domestic - demand repair and policy support to improve. In contrast, the US CESI fell from a high in March and continued to decline in April, falling into negative territory, mainly dragged down by lower - than - expected first - quarter GDP, weak retail, and ISM manufacturing data, indicating a significant adjustment in the market's expectation of US growth momentum [47]. 6. Capital Flows from the Perspective of Foreign - Exchange Settlement and Sales - Foreign - Exchange Market Supply - Demand Balance - The deficit in foreign - exchange settlement and sales narrowed significantly, and market expectations became more stable. In March 2025, the bank's foreign - exchange settlement was $189.6 billion, and sales were $191.6 billion, with the deficit narrowing to $2 billion from $10.4 billion in February. This change reflects the phased stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the rationalization of enterprises' and residents' foreign - exchange purchase behavior, and the alleviation of the market's concern about the RMB's unilateral depreciation [49]. - The behavior of forward foreign - exchange settlement and sales was adjusted, and the demand for hedging increased. In March, the willingness for forward foreign - exchange settlement and sales in the market adjusted structurally. After excluding the performance factor, the settlement rate of foreign - exchange receipts increased to 50.51% month - on - month, indicating an enhanced willingness of export enterprises to lock in exchange rates. At the same time, the purchase rate of foreign - exchange payments increased to 58.88% month - on - month, indicating that enterprises actively increased their foreign - exchange purchase exposure to strengthen the hedging of US - dollar risks in the context of increasing trade and macro uncertainties [49]. - In March 2025, the bank's foreign - related income on behalf of customers was $692 billion, and payments were $642.8 billion, with a foreign - related payment - receipt surplus of $49.2 billion, further expanding from $29 billion in February. By item, the net inflow of cross - border funds under the goods trade in the first quarter reached $206.3 billion, a 1.2 - fold increase year - on - year, still being the main source of funds. The net outflow of cross - border funds in the service trade increased 25% year - on - year, with the outflow under travel increasing 12%, but the overall situation remained controllable. The stability of the cross - border payment - receipt structure has been enhanced, providing a basic support for the foreign - exchange market [50]. - The capital account deficit continued to narrow, and the deficit in March narrowed to $300 million from $13 billion in February. The securities investment account turned into a surplus, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate bonds increased significantly. Data showed that from February to March, foreign investors cumulatively net - bought $26.9 billion of domestic bonds, an 84% increase year - on - year; from April 1 to 18, they further net - bought $33.2 billion, maintaining a high - speed allocation rhythm. The allocation of equities also stabilized, indicating that foreign investors' confidence in RMB assets had recovered [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, V2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 4930 and resistance around 5100. The supply pressure has increased in the short - term due to the restart of the 800,000 - ton Bohua device this week, while the demand of downstream PVC floor enterprises, pipes and profiles is affected by factors such as tariff shocks and the weak real estate situation. The decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and the ethylene market's external sales pressure has eased, but demand follow - up is still insufficient. The US trade policy still has uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4968 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the trading volume is 629,540 lots, down 238,592 lots; the open interest is 921,503 lots, up 17,875 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 776,033 lots, down 8,672 lots; the short position is 856,251 lots, up 7,471 lots; the net long position is - 80,218 lots, down 16,143 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4806.15 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5070 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4876.25 yuan/ton, up 14.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 188 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China is 2806.67 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China is 2568 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia is 541 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 206 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; in Southeast Asia is 211 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 77.35%, up 0.68 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.35%, up 0.13 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.09%, up 2.11 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 441,400 tons, down 9,200 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region is 395,200 tons, down 10,000 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region is 46,200 tons, up 800 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.1370544 billion square meters, up 7.73344 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan [3]. 6. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.72%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.61%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.68%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.68%, up 0.88 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - On April 24, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there was no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US, let alone an agreement. On April 24, the cash - on - delivery price of Changzhou PVCSG5 in the warehouse remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4740 to 4840 yuan/ton. From April 12 to 18, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. As of April 24, the PVC social inventory of the new (41) samples decreased by 5.15% month - on - month to 6.877 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.77% [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's soybean import demand is expected to be significantly met due to increased production enthusiasm among farmers in South America, leading to a substantial rise in soybean supply for the new production season [1] - Under the current tariff rates, the landed cost price difference between U.S. Gulf soybeans and South American soybeans has further widened, continuously weakening the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans [1] - The estimated domestic soybean supply-demand gap is projected to be around 85 million to 92 million tons, with Brazil's soybean exports to China potentially exceeding 80 million tons by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The global soybean supply is expected to be ample due to the anticipated bumper harvest in major producing countries, which diminishes the likelihood of significant price increases for South American soybeans [2] - Cost factors such as declining agricultural input costs and improved transportation infrastructure in Brazil are expected to provide little upward support for soybean prices [2] - The price of South American soybeans will primarily be driven by supply and demand fundamentals, with short-term trade friction costs potentially affecting prices but not providing a basis for substantial increases [2] Group 3 - Domestic corn and soybean meal prices have fluctuated within a range, with corn prices between 1,700 to 3,100 yuan per ton and soybean meal prices between 2,500 to 5,500 yuan per ton [3] - The impact of raw material price fluctuations on pig feed costs is estimated to be around 0.3 to 0.5 yuan per kilogram, with a very low probability of a 1 yuan increase in feed costs per kilogram [3] - Despite uncertainties in U.S.-China trade negotiations, the overall price movements of corn and soybean meal have been limited by various external factors [3]

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3056元/吨，较前日上涨17元/吨，涨幅0.56%；菜粕2509合约2723元/吨，较前日 下跌26元/吨，跌幅0.95%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3300元/吨，较前日上涨180元/吨，现货基差M09+244， 较前日上涨163；江苏地区豆粕现货3090元/吨，较前日上涨60元/吨，现货基差M09+34，较前日下跌28；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2990元/吨，较前日上涨20元/吨，现货基差M09-66，较前日下上涨3。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600元/ 吨，较前日持平，现货基差RM09-123，较前日上涨26。 农产品日报 | 2025-04-08 现货整体上涨，豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 近期市场资讯，巴西咨询机构家园农商公司称，4月4日，2024/25年度巴西大豆收获进度为85.83%，高于一周前的 81.31%。作为对比，2024年同期的收获进度为79.362%，过去五年平均进度为84.85%。巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的 出口数据显示，巴西3月出口大豆14,679,611.11吨，日均出口量为772,611.11吨，较上年3月全月的日均出口量 630 ...