以下文章来源于围棋投研 ，作者伟琪 围棋投研 . 业内人士，重点覆盖高端制造 来源：雪球 化工虽然不是深度覆盖的范围，但其实很多逻辑和制造业是相通的。去年三季度就有聊过化工，当时逻辑就是反内卷，上面要整治产能重复建设和 无需过度竞争，市场都预期景气度会迎来好转。 后来化工龙头股纷纷大涨，就连化工ETF都一路上涨，直到今年3月初。这期间有不少朋友来咨询或感谢，我都没敢多回应（涨多了总归风险更 大）。 趁着最近调整了些，赶紧更新下基本面情况，化工这轮上涨的逻辑， 已经从反内卷转变为了两个字：涨价。 第一层涨价，是石油在涨价。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 围棋投研 这段时间中东地区冲突愈演愈烈，导致石油价格飙升，人尽皆知。 对于化工产业链，石油就是最上游，把石油炼完就会分出汽油、柴油、乙烯、丙烯、丁二烯等基础原料，再把这些东西加工一下，就变成塑料、橡 胶、涂料、化肥等化工品。 用个可能不太恰当的比喻，如果说石油是爷爷辈的，那大家熟知的90%化工品就都是子子孙孙辈。 现在石油涨价了，基础原料和化工品就要跟着涨，一环 ...

具体来看，三大股指早盘震荡回落，午后加速下探。截至收盘，沪指跌0.85%报4049.91点，深证 成指跌1.87%，创业板指跌2.29%，上证50指数逆市涨0.32%，沪深北三市合计成交约2.22万亿 元，较此前一日减少约1150亿元。 A股市场超4500股飘绿，半导体板块大幅下挫，长光华芯、华灿光电跌约10%；保险、银行、券 商板块逆市拉升；地产板块上扬，京投发展斩获3连板；化纤板块午后崛起，中复神鹰20%涨停， 再创历史新高；绿色电力板块活跃，华电辽能、江苏新能等涨停；部分化工股活跃，金正大 （002470）尾盘涨停，三房巷（600370）收获4连板；CPO概念跳水，新易盛跌近6%，中际旭创 跌逾3%，天孚通信跌约10%，成交额分别位居A股第一、第二和第四位。 港股方面，耀才证券金融涨近47%，盘中一度暴涨超80%；五一视界涨超16%，盘中一度大涨近 30%；迅策尾盘飙升涨近37%。 金融板块逆市拉升 3月17日，两市主要股指午后全线走低，创业板指、科创综指跌超2%；港股亦震荡回落，恒 生科技指数午后翻绿。 耀才证券金融16日晚间公告称，蚂蚁集团发起的要约收购已通过有关部门审批，预计将于3月30 日完成交 ...

2026 年 03 月 16 日 液氯、对硝基氯化苯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向 告 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：国际柴 油、燃料油等涨幅居前，建议关注 进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方 向》2026-03-10 2、《基础化工行业周报：工业级碳 酸锂、电池级碳酸锂等涨幅居前， 建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股 息等方向》2026-03-04 3、《基础化工行业周报：工业级碳 酸锂、电池级碳酸锂等涨幅居前， 建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股 息等方向》2026-02-24 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：卢昊 S1050526020001 luhao@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基础化工(申万) | 7.2 | 28.4 | 48.9 | | 沪深 300 | 0.2 | 3.8 ...

2026 年 03 月 16 日 液氯、对硝基氯化苯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向 告 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：卢昊 S1050526020001 luhao@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基础化工(申万) | 7.2 | 28.4 | 48.9 | | 沪深 300 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 16.5 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：国际柴 油、燃料油等涨幅居前，建议关注 进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方 向》2026-03-10 2、《基础化工行业周报：工业级碳 酸锂、电池级碳酸锂等涨幅居前， 建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股 息等方向》2026-03-04 3、《基础化工行业周报：工业级碳 酸锂、电池级碳酸锂等涨幅居前， 建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股 息 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry index closed at 5211.65 points, up 0.57% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.38% [5][17] - Among the 11 sub-industries in the chemical sector, 11 saw gains while 14 experienced declines. The leading sectors included coal chemicals, carbon black, membrane materials, viscose, and food and feed additives, with weekly increases of 14.80%, 8.81%, 6.07%, 5.29%, and 5.05% respectively. Conversely, polyurethane, inorganic salts, and titanium dioxide saw declines of -8.50%, -6.53%, and -5.37% respectively [5][18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Chemical Sector Review - The basic chemical industry index closed at 5211.65 points, up 0.57% from last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.38% [17] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4095.45 points, down 0.70% from the previous week [17] - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 209 stocks rose (45%) while 248 stocks fell (54%) [20] 2. Key Chemical Sub-Industry Tracking 2.1 Polyester Filament - The market price of polyester filament saw significant increases, with POY averaging 8900 CNY/ton, up 1591.67 CNY/ton from last week [27] - The average industry operating rate for polyester filament was approximately 85.15% [28] - The average processing margin for POY150/48 was 1852.06 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 485.86 CNY/ton from the previous week [30] 2.2 Tires - The operating rate for the full steel tire industry was 71.80%, up 6.42 percentage points, while the semi-steel tire industry rate was 78.73%, up 4.20 percentage points [39] - The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 15839 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.08% [40] - The average price of carbon black was 8366 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 658 CNY/ton from the previous week [41] 3. Chemical Product Price Trends - Among 380 tracked chemical products, 223 saw price increases while 15 experienced declines [24] - The top ten products with the highest price increases included para-nitrochlorobenzene (Anhui) at 11000 CNY, with an 80% increase [25] - The top ten products with the largest price declines included phthalic anhydride (Shandong) at 6975 CNY, with an 11% decrease [26]

2026年3月15日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 中泰期货PVC产业链周报 PVC + NAOH + CL 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 PVC综述及平衡表 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） PVC供需小结 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 思路 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 总产量 | 49.61 | 49.74 | 0.12 | 47.76 | 48.18 | 本周产量小幅度增加，电石法提负荷， 乙烯法降负荷。下周上游乙烯降负荷以 | | 产量 | | | | | | | 后会导致乙烯法PVC 减产，预计PVC整 | | （万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, is transforming a geopolitical crisis into a systemic supply shock for the global chemical industry, with significant impacts on various chemical products and companies across multiple regions [3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Disruptions - Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, there has been a widespread declaration of force majeure affecting major chemical products, including ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC, and LNG, impacting companies in countries such as China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia, Poland, Germany, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [3]. - The North American spot market has reacted sharply, with ethylene prices rising by 24.0%, propylene by 12.8%, and polypropylene by 25.0% compared to the last week of February [4][10]. - The availability of raw materials is identified as the critical bottleneck, with potential further declines in operating rates in the Middle East and Asia if the conflict persists and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked [4]. Group 2: Impact on Olefins and Raw Materials - The olefins supply chain is particularly hard-hit, with 3.9% of global ethylene capacity and 3.2% of propylene capacity currently under force majeure, marking an increase of approximately 1.7 percentage points since March 6 [5]. - Southeast Asia and Central Europe are the most affected regions, with 20.4% of ethylene capacity in Southeast Asia and 60.2% in Central Europe impacted [6]. - Specific companies like Formosa Plastics and Aster Chemicals have announced force majeure due to supply disruptions, affecting significant annual capacities of ethylene and propylene [6][7]. Group 3: Downstream Effects on Polyolefins - The force majeure declarations are rapidly transmitting down the supply chain, with 1.4% of global polyethylene (PE) capacity and 1.0% of polypropylene (PP) capacity now under force majeure, reflecting increases of 0.8 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively [8]. - Companies such as LyondellBasell and PT Chandra Asri have also declared force majeure, citing raw material shortages and logistical delays due to the conflict [8][9]. Group 4: Chlor-Alkali and Vinyl Products - The chlor-alkali and vinyl products sector has seen significant participation from Chinese companies in force majeure declarations, with 5.2% of global PVC capacity, 5.4% of VCM, and 6.4% of EDC now affected [11]. - Major Chinese firms like Tianjin Bohua and LG Chem have announced force majeure due to upstream supply disruptions caused by the conflict [11]. Group 5: LNG Supply Chain Impact - The LNG supply chain has been severely impacted, with Qatar Energy declaring force majeure on its entire LNG operations due to attacks on its facilities [12]. - Other companies, including Petronet LNG and EQUATE, have followed suit, citing disruptions in shipping and raw material supply as reasons for their force majeure declarations [12].

证券研究报告：基础化工|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-05 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5006.07 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5235.06 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3081.91 | 行业相对指数表现 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-03 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 50% 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:刘海荣 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120006 Email:liuhairong@cnpsec.com 分析师:费晨洪 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120003 Email:feichenhong@cnpsec.com 分析师:李家豪 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120005 Email:lijiahao@cnpsec.com 分析师:刘隆基 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120002 Email:liulongji@cnpsec.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like hydrochloric acid and liquid chlorine have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are expected to benefit from declining raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected, indicating potential investment opportunities [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report highlights significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%) and natural gas (8.68%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that may enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, and suggests specific companies for investment [22]. Market Performance - The report notes that the chemical industry is currently facing a weak overall performance, with varying results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - It recommends monitoring companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices, which in turn affect the chemical industry [23][24]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others, all rated as "Buy" [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like liquid chlorine and hydrochloric acid have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are viewed positively due to their benefits from lower raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected. The report highlights investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that are likely to enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, which is currently facing operational difficulties but shows signs of improvement [22]. - It recommends selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives sector and the coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer sectors, which are expected to maintain stable demand due to self-sufficiency [22]. Market Performance - The report notes significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%), natural gas (8.68%), and TDI (7.03%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - The overall performance of the chemical industry remains weak, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors are outperforming expectations [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It highlights the fluctuations in international oil prices, which are expected to impact the chemical sector significantly [23][24].