Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like hydrochloric acid and liquid chlorine have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are expected to benefit from declining raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected, indicating potential investment opportunities [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report highlights significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%) and natural gas (8.68%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that may enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, and suggests specific companies for investment [22]. Market Performance - The report notes that the chemical industry is currently facing a weak overall performance, with varying results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - It recommends monitoring companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices, which in turn affect the chemical industry [23][24]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others, all rated as "Buy" [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like liquid chlorine and hydrochloric acid have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are viewed positively due to their benefits from lower raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected. The report highlights investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that are likely to enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, which is currently facing operational difficulties but shows signs of improvement [22]. - It recommends selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives sector and the coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer sectors, which are expected to maintain stable demand due to self-sufficiency [22]. Market Performance - The report notes significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%), natural gas (8.68%), and TDI (7.03%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - The overall performance of the chemical industry remains weak, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors are outperforming expectations [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It highlights the fluctuations in international oil prices, which are expected to impact the chemical sector significantly [23][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant price increases in certain chemical products such as butadiene and acrylonitrile, while others like sulfur and aluminum fluoride have seen substantial declines [1][2][4] - This week, the products with the largest price increases include butadiene (Shanghai Petrochemical, +10.09%), acrylonitrile (East China AN, +7.29%), and nitric acid (Anhui, +6.67%) [1][2] - Conversely, products with the largest price declines include liquid chlorine (East China, -21.55%), aluminum fluoride (Henan, -9.58%), and natural rubber (Malaysian No. 20 standard rubber SMR20, -4.68%) [2][4] Group 2 - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - It emphasizes investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high dividend yields [4] - Specific recommendations include focusing on companies like Jiangshan Co. (600389) and Xingfa Group (600141) in the glyphosate sector, and China Heartland Fertilizer as a key recommendation [4]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 昨日PVC期货价格大幅上涨，主力合约V2605下午收盘涨幅达3.38%。昨日上涨主要受陕西差别电价政 策预期催化，叠加海外氯碱装置扰动影响。国内基本面供需宽松格局未改，短期情绪主导走势。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 关于征求《陕西省关于执行差别电价有关事项的通知》意见的函中拟对电石、烧碱在内的7个行业限制 类产能电价每千瓦时加价0.1元，淘汰类产能每千瓦时加价0.3元，相关企业应于2026年5月底前完成技术 改造或淘汰落后产能，未完成企业从2026年7月1号开始收取加价电费。电石单吨耗电3200度，电费每度 加价0.1元对应电石成本上升320元/吨，PVC单耗电石以1.38折算，PVC成本间接上升442元/吨。 当前陕西省内PVC工厂为陕西北元（产能125万吨）和陕西金泰（产能90万吨），两家均有自备电厂与 自备电石，但仍存电石缺口需外采，采购来源包括省内及其他主产区。该政策若实施，将直接抬升陕西 省内采购的电石成本，或促使企业后续加大对省外电石的采购力度。因此政策对当前产量的 ...

Market Performance - The basic chemical index increased by 2.58% from December 13 to December 19, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.28%, indicating that the basic chemical sector outperformed the CSI 300 by 2.85 percentage points, ranking fifth among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included spandex (15.38%), other rubber products (10.78%), viscose (5.14%), civil explosives (4.25%), and potassium fertilizer (3.98%) [1][2] Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrochloric acid (Jiangsu) at 57.14%, hydrochloric acid (Shandong) at 44.44%, industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 7.63%, battery-grade lithium carbonate at 7.57%, and butadiene at 6.12% [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines included concentrated nitric acid at -9.30%, VCM (vinyl chloride monomer) at -6.25%, international gasoline at -6.11%, caustic soda (32% ion membrane) at -5.45%, and sulfur at -5.06% [3] Industry Dynamics - The sulfuric acid industry is focusing on supply stability and price control to ensure national food security, with measures being implemented to stabilize fertilizer supply and prices ahead of the spring farming season [4] - The current international sulfur supply is tight, leading to increased global sulfur resource prices and significantly raising the production costs for phosphate fertilizer [4] - As of December 19, the market price for sulfuric acid (98% smelting acid, Shandong) was 865 RMB/ton, with an increase of 8.81% in December and a year-to-date increase of 162.12% [4] Company Developments - Mitsui Chemicals announced an expansion of its MDI production capacity in South Korea, adding 100,000 tons/year, which will increase the plant's annual capacity from 610,000 tons to 710,000 tons, with production expected to start in May 2027 [5] - Dow Chemical plans to raise prices for its polymer MDI products in Southeast Asia by $200/ton, while Wanhua Chemical will also increase prices for all MDI and TDI products in Latin America by $200/ton starting December 15 [5] Investment Recommendations - The current investment focus includes the refrigerant sector, chemical fiber sector, and high-quality growth stocks, with specific companies recommended for attention [6] - Suggested companies in the refrigerant sector include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., and Sanmei Co. [6] - In the chemical fiber sector, recommended companies include Huafeng Chemical and Xinfengming [6] - Other notable companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical [6]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 聚氯乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周PVC主力期货在4740-4860区间波动。受前期盘面价格偏低叠加宏观利好驱动，本周PVC期货 冲高回落收涨。截至2025年12月31日收盘，主力合约V2605报收于4805元/吨，较上周收盘下跌0.56%。 基本面：供应端，上周韩华宁波40万吨装置维持检修状态，新增新浦化学25万吨检修装置，PVC产能利用 率环比-0.15%至77.23%。需求端，上周PVC下游开工率环比-0.87%至44.52%，其中管材开工率环比-1.4% 至36.2%，型材开工率环比-0.86%至30.57%。库存方面，上周PVC社会库存环比+0.43%至106.11万吨， 高位小幅积累。成本方面，上周电石价格下调，电石法全国平均成本环比下降至5018元/吨；乙烷、氯乙烷 ...

Core Insights - Westlake Corporation (WLK) has approved a plan to cease operations at three North American chlorovinyl production facilities and a styrene manufacturing unit due to challenging conditions in the global commodities chemicals industry, with closures expected in December 2025 [1][8] Group 1: Facility Closures - The affected facilities include the PVC plant in Aberdeen, MS, the VCM plant in Lake Charles, LA, North site, and a diaphragm chlor-alkali unit at Lake Charles, LA, South site, along with the Lake Charles styrene plant [2][8] - Seven other North American chlorovinyl facilities will continue to supply customers with PVC, VCM, and chlor-alkali products [3][8] Group 2: Production Capacity - Post-closure, the company will have an annual production capacity of approximately 520 million pounds of suspension PVC globally, with 4,900 million pounds in North America, and 7,630 million pounds of VCM globally, including 6,050 million pounds in North America [3] - The company will also maintain a capacity of 6,680 million pounds of chlorine and 7,510 million pounds of caustic soda globally, with 5,410 million pounds of chlorine and 6,100 million pounds of caustic soda in North America [3] Group 3: Financial Impact - The closures will result in a workforce reduction of about 295 employees [4][8] - Westlake expects pre-tax costs of approximately $415 million, primarily from non-cash accelerated depreciation, amortization, asset write-offs, employee severance, and other shutdown costs, with most costs anticipated to be recognized in the fourth quarter of 2025 [4][8]

Footprint Optimization - The company is shutting down three North American chlorovinyl plants and exiting the styrene business due to unfavorable market conditions and high costs[2, 5] - These closures are expected to improve annual EBITDA by approximately $100 million and generate free cash flow savings of around $175 million in 2026[2, 9] - The company anticipates one-time charges of about $415 million in 4Q'25, including a $357 million non-cash accelerated depreciation, amortization, and asset write-off charge[9] - The shutdown includes the following capacity reductions: 825 million lbs of Chlorine (11% of WLK global capacity), 910 million lbs of VCM (11% of WLK global capacity), 1,000 million lbs of PVC (15% of WLK global capacity), and 570 million lbs of Styrene (100% of WLK global capacity)[5] Profitability Improvement Plan - The company's Profitability Improvement Plan aims to restore PEM's Return on Investment to an appropriate level[4] - The plan is expected to generate approximately $600 million per year of EBITDA uplift starting in 2026, with each of the three pillars contributing around $200 million[9, 10, 12] - The footprint optimization efforts, including North American chlorovinyls and styrene closures, are projected to contribute $100 million to the $200 million total from Footprint Optimization[10] - The plan has an expected payback period of less than one year on the $58 million cash costs required for execution[2, 9]

Group 1 - The report highlights significant price increases in lithium battery electrolytes (17.86%), liquid chlorine (17.41%), and sulfur (13.88%) among others, while some products like pentasodium and trichloroethylene experienced notable declines [1][2][4] - The overall chemical industry remains in a weak position, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants have exceeded expectations [4] - Investment opportunities are suggested in glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets, with specific recommendations for companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [4] Group 2 - The report indicates that Brent crude oil prices have increased by 0.87% to $63.75 per barrel, while WTI prices rose by 2.61% to $60.08 per barrel, with expectations for oil prices to stabilize around $65 [3] - The chemical industry is advised to focus on domestic demand and import substitution due to uncertainties in export growth, particularly in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers which have stable domestic demand [4] - Companies like Sinopec are highlighted for their high asset quality and dividend yield, benefiting from lower raw material costs due to falling oil prices [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced high-level fluctuations with adjustments in AI application and coal sectors, leading to a slight decline in indices. The Shanghai Composite Index reported 4001.24 points, down 0.16% [1] - The chemical sector showed strong performance, with the basic chemical index rising by 2.21%, leading all industries [4] Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector has been on a continuous rise, with Clear Water Source (300437) hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days, gaining 20% [3][4] - The yellow phosphorus index increased by over 7% in the last two weeks, indicating a positive trend in chemical product prices [6] - The chlorosulfonic acid market saw an 8.61% price increase, reaching 1552 yuan/ton, with a cumulative rise of 19.38% since August [6] Key Stocks in Chemical Sector - Clear Water Source (300437) rose by 19.97% to 14.66 yuan, while other notable stocks like Hunan YN (301358) and Chengxing Co. (600078) also saw significant gains [5] Solar Energy Sector Recovery - The solar energy sector showed signs of recovery, with the solar equipment index rising by 1.02%. Leading companies like Tongwei Co. (600438) reached a peak increase of 7.17% [7][8] Storage Battery Market Growth - In Q3, China's lithium battery shipments for energy storage reached 165 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 65%. This trend is expected to continue with significant growth projected for 2025 [9] - Trina Solar announced a memorandum of understanding with Pacific Green to supply 5 GWh of grid-level battery storage systems from 2026 to 2028 [9] Stock Performance of Marked Companies - Marked Co. faced a 20% limit down after announcing the termination of its control change plan, with trading resuming on November 7 [11][12]