热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 昨日PVC期货价格大幅上涨，主力合约V2605下午收盘涨幅达3.38%。昨日上涨主要受陕西差别电价政 策预期催化，叠加海外氯碱装置扰动影响。国内基本面供需宽松格局未改，短期情绪主导走势。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 关于征求《陕西省关于执行差别电价有关事项的通知》意见的函中拟对电石、烧碱在内的7个行业限制 类产能电价每千瓦时加价0.1元，淘汰类产能每千瓦时加价0.3元，相关企业应于2026年5月底前完成技术 改造或淘汰落后产能，未完成企业从2026年7月1号开始收取加价电费。电石单吨耗电3200度，电费每度 加价0.1元对应电石成本上升320元/吨，PVC单耗电石以1.38折算，PVC成本间接上升442元/吨。 当前陕西省内PVC工厂为陕西北元（产能125万吨）和陕西金泰（产能90万吨），两家均有自备电厂与 自备电石，但仍存电石缺口需外采，采购来源包括省内及其他主产区。该政策若实施，将直接抬升陕西 省内采购的电石成本，或促使企业后续加大对省外电石的采购力度。因此政策对当前产量的 ...

行业重要动态 硫酸行业保供稳价，助力保障国家粮食安全。据中化新网，12月18日，中国硫酸工业协会联合中国磷复 肥工业协会召开专题会议，聚焦硫酸与磷复肥行业保供稳价工作，明确多项调控措施，以保障春耕前化 肥供应稳定及价格平稳，夯实国家粮食安全的农资保障基础。据中国磷复肥工业协会，磷肥作为粮食 的"粮食"，其供应稳定性直接关乎国家粮食安全大局与农民种粮积极性。当前，国际硫磺供应持续紧 张，直接推高全球硫资源价格，导致磷肥生产原料成本大幅激增。硫酸作为磷肥生产的核心原料，近期 价格波动不断加剧，给磷肥企业正常生产经营带来显著压力。会议提出三项举措，包括硫酸供应向磷肥 生产倾斜、推进建立长期稳定购销关系、合理确定硫酸价格，旨在严格落实"国内优先"供应原则，全力 保障春耕用肥原料需求。据钢联数据，截至12月19日，硫酸（98%冶炼酸，山东）市场价为865元/吨， 12月以来涨幅为8.81%，本年涨幅高达162.12%。隆众资讯预计，在"保供稳价"政策的引导下，后续硫 酸市场将逐步降温，部分区域或出现回调可能。 上海证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：过去一周（12.13-12.19），基础化工指数涨跌幅为2.58%，沪深 3 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 聚氯乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周PVC主力期货在4740-4860区间波动。受前期盘面价格偏低叠加宏观利好驱动，本周PVC期货 冲高回落收涨。截至2025年12月31日收盘，主力合约V2605报收于4805元/吨，较上周收盘下跌0.56%。 基本面：供应端，上周韩华宁波40万吨装置维持检修状态，新增新浦化学25万吨检修装置，PVC产能利用 率环比-0.15%至77.23%。需求端，上周PVC下游开工率环比-0.87%至44.52%，其中管材开工率环比-1.4% 至36.2%，型材开工率环比-0.86%至30.57%。库存方面，上周PVC社会库存环比+0.43%至106.11万吨， 高位小幅积累。成本方面，上周电石价格下调，电石法全国平均成本环比下降至5018元/吨；乙烷、氯乙烷 ...

Key Takeaways WLK will cease operations at three chlorovinyl facilities and a styrene plant due to tough conditions.Seven other North American chlorovinyl sites will continue supplying PVC, VCM and chlor-alkali products.Westlake expects about $415M in pre-tax costs and a workforce reduction of roughly 295 employees.Westlake Corporation (WLK) announced it has approved a plan to cease operations at three of the North American chlorovinyl production facilities and the Styrene manufacturing unit amid challengin ...

Footprint Optimization - The company is shutting down three North American chlorovinyl plants and exiting the styrene business due to unfavorable market conditions and high costs[2, 5] - These closures are expected to improve annual EBITDA by approximately $100 million and generate free cash flow savings of around $175 million in 2026[2, 9] - The company anticipates one-time charges of about $415 million in 4Q'25, including a $357 million non-cash accelerated depreciation, amortization, and asset write-off charge[9] - The shutdown includes the following capacity reductions: 825 million lbs of Chlorine (11% of WLK global capacity), 910 million lbs of VCM (11% of WLK global capacity), 1,000 million lbs of PVC (15% of WLK global capacity), and 570 million lbs of Styrene (100% of WLK global capacity)[5] Profitability Improvement Plan - The company's Profitability Improvement Plan aims to restore PEM's Return on Investment to an appropriate level[4] - The plan is expected to generate approximately $600 million per year of EBITDA uplift starting in 2026, with each of the three pillars contributing around $200 million[9, 10, 12] - The footprint optimization efforts, including North American chlorovinyls and styrene closures, are projected to contribute $100 million to the $200 million total from Footprint Optimization[10] - The plan has an expected payback period of less than one year on the $58 million cash costs required for execution[2, 9]

Group 1 - The report highlights significant price increases in lithium battery electrolytes (17.86%), liquid chlorine (17.41%), and sulfur (13.88%) among others, while some products like pentasodium and trichloroethylene experienced notable declines [1][2][4] - The overall chemical industry remains in a weak position, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants have exceeded expectations [4] - Investment opportunities are suggested in glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets, with specific recommendations for companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [4] Group 2 - The report indicates that Brent crude oil prices have increased by 0.87% to $63.75 per barrel, while WTI prices rose by 2.61% to $60.08 per barrel, with expectations for oil prices to stabilize around $65 [3] - The chemical industry is advised to focus on domestic demand and import substitution due to uncertainties in export growth, particularly in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers which have stable domestic demand [4] - Companies like Sinopec are highlighted for their high asset quality and dividend yield, benefiting from lower raw material costs due to falling oil prices [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced high-level fluctuations with adjustments in AI application and coal sectors, leading to a slight decline in indices. The Shanghai Composite Index reported 4001.24 points, down 0.16% [1] - The chemical sector showed strong performance, with the basic chemical index rising by 2.21%, leading all industries [4] Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector has been on a continuous rise, with Clear Water Source (300437) hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days, gaining 20% [3][4] - The yellow phosphorus index increased by over 7% in the last two weeks, indicating a positive trend in chemical product prices [6] - The chlorosulfonic acid market saw an 8.61% price increase, reaching 1552 yuan/ton, with a cumulative rise of 19.38% since August [6] Key Stocks in Chemical Sector - Clear Water Source (300437) rose by 19.97% to 14.66 yuan, while other notable stocks like Hunan YN (301358) and Chengxing Co. (600078) also saw significant gains [5] Solar Energy Sector Recovery - The solar energy sector showed signs of recovery, with the solar equipment index rising by 1.02%. Leading companies like Tongwei Co. (600438) reached a peak increase of 7.17% [7][8] Storage Battery Market Growth - In Q3, China's lithium battery shipments for energy storage reached 165 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 65%. This trend is expected to continue with significant growth projected for 2025 [9] - Trina Solar announced a memorandum of understanding with Pacific Green to supply 5 GWh of grid-level battery storage systems from 2026 to 2028 [9] Stock Performance of Marked Companies - Marked Co. faced a 20% limit down after announcing the termination of its control change plan, with trading resuming on November 7 [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after macroeconomic improvements, products closely related to demand in Europe and the United States are expected to benefit first, followed by products related to emerging markets. MDI and PVC are identified as having high certainty for recovery [3][52]. - The acquisition of OxyChem by Berkshire Hathaway is seen as a significant indicator of recovery potential in the chemical sector, particularly in chlor-alkali products like PVC [7][10]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Enters Rate Cut Cycle Benefiting Real Estate Recovery - The U.S. chlor-alkali chemical sector is currently at a cyclical low, with PVC prices declining since 2022, affecting profitability [11][20]. - The expectation of further rate cuts in the U.S. is anticipated to stimulate real estate demand, which is closely linked to chlor-alkali products [20][21]. 2. European and American Demand Products Expected to Recover First - The report notes that the demand for petrochemical and chemical products is expected to improve as monetary policies ease in the U.S. and Europe, which will likely stimulate real demand recovery [23][24]. - MDI is highlighted as a product that will likely see early recovery due to its favorable market position and the competitive advantage of companies like Wanhua Chemical [24][30]. 3. Long-term Growth from Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to drive long-term demand growth for chemical products, particularly due to initiatives like China's Belt and Road and the competitive dynamics among major powers [47][50]. - The report indicates that the supply of PVC is expected to stagnate, while demand from emerging markets continues to grow, particularly from countries like India and Vietnam [49][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that MDI and PVC are the most promising products for investment, with specific companies recommended for MDI (Wanhua Chemical) and several for PVC [3][52].

Group 1 - Apple is developing at least two types of smart glasses, one without a display (code-named N50) for use with iPhone, and another with a display that may compete with Meta's recently released Ray-Ban Display smart glasses [1][3] - The smart glasses will run on the same visionOS operating system as Vision Pro, with compatibility for both iPhone and Mac systems, allowing for a full visionOS experience when paired with Mac and a lighter interface when connected to iPhone [1] - The industry is expected to enter a "mass production year" from 2H25 to 2027, with new product lines from companies like Meta, Apple, Xiaomi, ByteDance, and Alibaba [1][2] Group 2 - The AI smart glasses technology landscape is divided into three main camps: those focusing on light waveguide technology (like Thunder and Rokid), the "voice-first" approach from Meta and Huawei, and the mixed reality segment led by Google and Apple [2] - Companies like Rongqi Technology and GoerTek are actively involved in the smart glasses sector, with GoerTek being one of the deepest players in the field, collaborating with Xiaomi and maintaining a long-term partnership with Apple [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC开工率环比下降，下游开工率窄幅上升，但因下游消耗有限，社会库存持续增长且压力偏高 [3] - 电石价格上涨带动电石法成本环比上升，目前电石法、乙烯法工艺持续亏损 [3] - 短期暂无新增检修计划，受部分装置重启影响，本周PVC产能利用率预计环比上升；新产能投放在即，中长期加大行业供应压力 [3] - 临近国庆长假，国内部分下游已完成备货，PVC需求预计边际减弱；终端地产市场偏弱，持续拖累国内需求 [3] - 印度PVC反倾销政策预计即将落地，出口市场观望为主，社会库存压力偏高，后市难去化 [3] - 近期电石供需博弈，价格预计持稳整理；乙烯法成本预计变化不大；短期供需偏弱给V2601盘面压力，技术上关注4830附近支撑线支撑 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）收盘价为4919元/吨，环比上涨28元/吨；成交量为902670手，环比增加54062手；持仓量为1111748手，环比减少12387手 [3] - 期货前20名持仓中，买单量为864420手，环比增加19389手；卖单量为952064手，环比增加4665手；净买单量为 - 87644手，环比增加14724手 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - 华东地区乙烯法PVC价格为5000元/吨，环比下降10元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4746.92元/吨，环比下降38.85元/吨 [3] - 华南地区乙烯法PVC价格为4970元/吨，环比下降30元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4815元/吨，环比下降36.88元/吨 [3] - 中国PVC到岸价为700美元/吨，东南亚到岸价为650美元/吨，西北欧离岸价为710美元/吨，均无环比变化；基差为 - 179元/吨，环比下降28元/吨 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 华中、华北、西北电石主流均价分别为2800元/吨、2768.33元/吨、2610元/吨，均无环比变化；内蒙液氯主流价为 - 350元/吨，无环比变化 [3] - VCM、EDC在CFR远东和CFR东南亚的中间价均无环比变化 [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）开工率为76.96%，环比下降2.98%；其中电石法开工率为76.89%，环比下降2.5%；乙烯法开工率为77.12%，环比下降4.19% [3] - 社会库存总计53.46万吨，环比增加0.3万吨；华东地区总计48.21万吨，环比增加0.38万吨；华南地区总计5.25万吨，环比减少0.08万吨 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 国房景气指数为93.05，环比下降0.29；房屋新开工面积累计值为39801.01万平方米，环比增加4595.01万平方米；房地产施工面积累计值为643108.94万平方米，环比增加4377.94万平方米；房地产开发投资完成额累计值为31693.94亿元，环比增加3588.01亿元 [3] 3.6 Option Market - 20日历史波动率为9.49%，环比下降0.32%；40日历史波动率为11.22%，环比上升0.16% [3] - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率和平值看涨期权隐含波动率均为14.21%，环比上升0.55% [3] 3.7 Industry News - 9月13 - 19日，PVC产能利用率环比下降2.98%至76.96%；下游开工率环比上升1.69%至49.19%，其中管材开工率环比上升1.52%至39.13%，型材开工率环比上升0.21%至39.43% [3] - 截至9月18日，PVC社会库存在95.37万吨，环比上周上升2.03% [3] - 9月13 - 19日，电石法周度平均成本环比上升至5230元/吨，乙烯法周度平均成本上升至5631元/吨；电石法周度利润环比下降155元/吨至657元/吨，乙烯法周度利润环比上升20元/吨至 - 652元/吨 [3]