当日，中国国际问题研究院在北京举办《蓝皮书》发布会。全书分上下两篇，上篇重点分析国际战略态 势、区域国别形势和世界经济、地区热点、全球治理等新走势，下篇专门论述中国外交政策和中外关系 新进展。 《蓝皮书》说，在逆全球化思潮愈演愈烈、地缘战略博弈加剧的背景下，全球治理赤字凸显。与此同 时，以联合国未来峰会成功举办为标志，世界上大多数国家呼吁重振多边合作、改革全球治理体系、共 同应对全球性挑战，全球南方崛起成为推动全球治理变革的建设性力量。 中新网北京8月21日电 (曾玥刘梦青)21日发布的《国际形势和中国外交蓝皮书(2024/2025)》(简称《蓝皮 书》)指出，国际战略态势持续深刻复杂演变，全球南方战略自主、联合自强的势头持续增强，世界多 极化潮流不可逆转，百年变局的大势走向更加清晰。 《蓝皮书》指出，作为全球南方的当然成员，中国在全球治理完善发展中的作用更加凸显，帮助广大发 展中国家实现自主发展，坚定维护发展中国家共同利益，汇聚全球南方的团结潮流。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

Core Viewpoint - China has approved 183 Brazilian coffee companies for a five-year export qualification, highlighting the deepening economic relationship between China and Brazil and showcasing China's commitment to high-level openness in international trade [1] Group 1: Market Opportunities - The Chinese market presents a significant strategic opportunity for Brazil's coffee industry, with coffee consumption in China growing at an average annual rate of approximately 20% over the past decade [1] - China's coffee industry is projected to exceed 313.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year growth [1] - The approval of 183 Brazilian companies for export to China opens up a vast new market for Brazil's coffee sector and accelerates the shift of global coffee trade towards the East [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The introduction of Brazilian coffee into China will provide consumers with a wider selection and effectively expand market supply [2] - China's domestic coffee production is unable to meet the entire demand, with a self-sufficiency rate of only 44% when excluding exports, indicating a significant supply gap [2] - The import of Brazilian coffee can meet the market's demand for high-cost performance coffee beans and stimulate the domestic industry to transition towards premium and differentiated products [2] Group 3: Bilateral Trade Relations - China remains Brazil's largest trading partner, with exports to China accounting for approximately 28% of Brazil's total export value in 2024 [2] - The upgrading of China's consumption structure and the acceleration of green transformation create new opportunities for Brazil in sectors such as food processing, green energy, and digital services [2] Group 4: Technological Collaboration - Deeper cooperation between China and Brazil is evident in the field of technological collaboration, aligning Brazil's "Accelerated Growth Plan" with China's new productivity development strategy [3] - Collaborative projects include the production of sustainable aviation fuel from sugarcane and the construction of the world's largest floating solar power plant in Brazil [3] - This model of "resource endowment complementarity + technological innovation collaboration" is pioneering a new paradigm for South-South cooperation [3] Group 5: Global Economic Outlook - The approval for Brazilian coffee exports reflects a bright future for an open world economy, with China and Brazil positioned at a historical high point in their relationship [3] - Both countries are encouraged to seize opportunities, enhance coordination, and create mutually beneficial cooperation outcomes, setting an example for solidarity and self-reliance among global South countries [3]

新华社记者闫洁 7月下旬至8月中旬，世界主要经济体陆续公布上半年经济数据，显示世界经济在多重挑战中艰难前行。 一方面，美国关税战冲击全球经贸秩序，削弱世界经济增长动能，成为拖累世界经济的最大"风险源"。 另一方面，加强合作应对挑战成为共识，包括中国在内的许多经济体着力优化经济结构、促进贸易多元 化、加强地区协作，推动世界经济磨砺更强韧性。 动能不足 发达经济体增速放缓 2025年上半年，美国频繁推出单边关税措施，严重侵蚀世界经济增长动能。整体而言，地区、国家之间 增长分化明显，发达经济体增长势头弱于新兴市场和发展中经济体。 发达经济体中，美国关税政策加剧其自身经济风险。受关税扰动，企业大幅增加进口提前囤货，导致美 国第一季度国内生产总值（GDP）环比出现萎缩；二季度GDP部分缘于"抢进口"效应减弱后的基数调整 而实现增长，但占美国经济总量约70%的个人消费支出（PCE）仅增长1.4%，内生需求出现疲软态势。 新华社北京8月19日电 题：在关税逆风中艰难前行——当前世界经济形势辨析 地缘政治紧张局势加剧、关税战扰乱全球正常经贸活动、跨境投资波动下行、产供链碎片化风险上升、 全球债务规模高企、宏观金融风险加大…… ...

Group 1 - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, with the US tariff war being a significant risk factor that undermines growth momentum [1][5][6] - Developed economies are experiencing slower growth compared to emerging markets, with the US showing signs of economic pressure due to tariff policies [2][3] - The IMF highlights that US trade policies create persistent uncertainty for major global economies, contributing to a fragile economic environment [3][5] Group 2 - Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region are demonstrating resilience and vitality, becoming key drivers of global growth [4] - The global South is emerging as a crucial force in enhancing economic resilience through cooperation and trade diversification [8][9] - China's economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, showcasing strong resilience and development potential, positioning itself as a stabilizing force in the world economy [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant challenges due to the impact of tariff wars, particularly from the United States, which is weakening growth momentum and creating uncertainty in international trade [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance of Developed Economies - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with GDP growth affected by tariff policies, leading to a contraction in Q1 and a modest growth of 1.4% in personal consumption expenditures in Q2 [2][3]. - The Eurozone's GDP growth in Q2 was only 0.1%, the lowest since early 2024, with major economies like Germany and Italy facing export challenges [3]. - Japan has revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 down to 0.7% from 1.2%, primarily due to the effects of U.S. tariffs [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Challenges - The global economy is under pressure from geopolitical tensions, tariff wars, and rising macroeconomic risks, with the U.S. being identified as a major source of risk [5][6]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted that U.S. trade policies contribute to ongoing uncertainty and fragility in the global economy [3][5]. Group 3: Resilience in Emerging Markets - Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region are showing resilience and are becoming key drivers of global growth, with significant trade growth observed in developing countries [4][8]. - The global South is increasingly important in maintaining and enhancing multilateral trade systems, with countries like China demonstrating strong economic growth and potential [7][8]. Group 4: Impact of Tariff Policies - U.S. tariffs are expected to lead to significant costs for American businesses, with estimates suggesting hundreds of billions in direct costs, affecting pricing and employment [6]. - The uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs is damaging global supply chains and reducing the attractiveness of the U.S. market for global capital [6]. Group 5: Cooperation and Trade Diversification - Countries are focusing on deepening cooperation to enhance economic resilience, with initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) being pursued in response to high tariffs [7]. - The IMF emphasizes the importance of practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [7].

Core Viewpoint - The phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Lula highlights the strengthening of China-Brazil relations, emphasizing mutual cooperation and the importance of multilateralism in addressing global challenges [1] Group 1: China-Brazil Relations - Xi Jinping stated that China-Brazil relations are at their historical best, with successful progress in building a community of shared destiny and aligning development strategies [1] - Both leaders expressed a commitment to enhancing cooperation and achieving more mutually beneficial outcomes, aiming to set an example of solidarity among major developing countries [1] Group 2: Multilateralism and Global Challenges - Lula praised China's commitment to multilateralism and its responsible role in international affairs, expressing Brazil's desire to strengthen communication within BRICS and oppose unilateral actions [1] - Xi Jinping reiterated support for Brazil in defending its sovereignty and emphasized the need for countries to unite against unilateralism and protectionism [1] - The BRICS mechanism is highlighted as an important platform for consolidating the consensus of global South countries, with a focus on maintaining international fairness and justice [1]

习近平：中国和巴西的关系正处于历史最好时期。金砖机制是构建全球南方共识的重要平台。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Indian Prime Minister Modi's upcoming visit to China from August 31 to September 1 marks his first trip to China in seven years, coinciding with a low point in US-India relations due to trade issues [1][2] - The visit is expected to be a strategic move for India to recalibrate its relationship with China as a counterbalance to the United States [1][4] Group 2: Historical Context - Modi's last visit to China was in 2018, and since then, bilateral relations have been strained due to a border conflict in 2020 [2] - Recent meetings between Indian and Chinese officials indicate a gradual easing of tensions, with significant dialogues occurring at various levels [2][3] Group 3: Economic Considerations - India's economic strategy appears to be a driving force behind the rapprochement, with intentions to enhance commercial cooperation and relax capital restrictions for Chinese investments [3] - The Indian government is reportedly open to allowing Chinese entities to acquire up to 24% of Indian companies without additional approvals, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic collaboration [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Dynamics - The shift in India's foreign policy is partly a response to perceived changes in US foreign policy under the Trump administration, which has complicated US-India relations [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the warming of India-China relations is closely linked to the deterioration of India-US relations, highlighting a strategic pivot by India [4][5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite current tensions with the US, there is cautious optimism within India regarding upcoming trade negotiations, with a focus on leveraging domestic market potential [7] - Modi's visit to China is seen as an opportunity for India to assert its position in the global economic landscape and signal a commitment to multilateral cooperation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the challenges faced by Mexico due to its proximity to the United States, emphasizing the need for Mexico to seek new paths and strengthen cooperation with Southern countries to gain more autonomy and a fairer future [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-Mexico Relations - The article discusses the pervasive influence of the U.S. in Mexico, affecting both daily life and major economic and political decisions, illustrating the long-term pressure and interference from the U.S. [2] - A recent example of U.S. dominance is the imposition of approximately 17% tariffs on Mexican tomatoes, which threatens to disrupt established supply chains and endanger the livelihoods of Mexican farmers [2]. Group 2: Mexican Response and Strategy - In response to U.S. pressures, Mexico is determined to defend its sovereignty, engage in negotiations with the U.S., and strengthen its domestic market [2]. - The article suggests that while Mexico cannot choose its geographical neighbor, it can build closer ties with Southern countries to gain more leverage and pursue a more independent future [2]. Group 3: Regional Resonance and Reader Engagement - The article's personal and localized narrative resonates strongly with Latin American readers, as it provides a genuine observation of U.S.-Mexico relations, differing from mainstream Western media [3]. - The piece has garnered significant attention on social media, surpassing 1 million views and sparking discussions among readers about U.S. hegemony and the need for regional cooperation [3][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the collaboration between China and Brazil in promoting a more just world and sustainable planet, reflecting their commitment to multilateralism and international fairness [1][2] - China expresses strong support for Brazil in defending its sovereignty and development rights, opposing external interference and unilateral tariff impositions [1][2] - Both countries aim to deepen cooperation across various sectors, including trade and finance, and enhance the BRICS mechanism to strengthen solidarity among developing nations [2] Group 2 - The dialogue included discussions on the Ukraine crisis, highlighting the positive role of the "six-point consensus" jointly issued by China and Brazil in de-escalating tensions [2] - Both parties advocate for the "Friends of Peace" group to facilitate dialogue and negotiations, emphasizing the importance of communication in resolving the crisis [2]