Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products, effective from April 1, 2026, which will cancel the VAT export rebate for 249 products, including those in the photovoltaic, chemical, and building materials sectors [1]. Group 1: Policy Changes - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for 249 products will be canceled, affecting over 80 chemical products including methanol, lithium hexafluorophosphate, 1,2-ethanediol, BDO, and PVC [1]. - The export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, until December 31, 2026, and will be completely canceled starting January 1, 2027 [4]. Group 2: Affected Products - The list of affected chemical products includes lithium hexafluorophosphate (code 28269020), methanol (code 29051100), and 1,2-ethanediol (code 29053100) among others [2]. - The announcement specifies various chemical products that will be impacted by the policy change, indicating a broad range of sectors including agriculture and manufacturing [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement to cancel the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, will increase export costs for solar companies, prompting many to expedite shipments before the deadline [1]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The cancellation of the 9% export VAT rebate is expected to raise export costs for photovoltaic companies, leading to increased urgency in shipping products before the policy takes effect [1]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the export prices of photovoltaic products have been declining, indicating a "volume increase, price decrease" trend [2]. - The adjustment in export VAT is seen as a long-term measure to stabilize export prices and reduce trade friction, although it is not the sole solution to the industry's challenges [2]. Group 2: Shipping and Logistics - A surge in shipping demand is anticipated as companies rush to export before the policy change, which may help alleviate seasonal declines in shipping rates [2]. - As of January 9, the Shanghai export container freight index was at 1647.39 points, down 0.5% from the previous period, with slight fluctuations in shipping rates across various routes [2]. - Despite the urgency from manufacturers, logistics companies indicate that the impact of the VAT policy change has not yet fully reached the logistics sector, and some companies have already developed contingency plans [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - Following the VAT policy adjustment, a significant drop in photovoltaic component export volumes is expected, with potential shipping volumes post-Chinese New Year estimated between 9,300 to 12,300 FEU per month [3][4]. - The main contract for the European shipping index (EC2604) experienced a notable increase, suggesting that the upcoming policy change may provide temporary support for shipping rates [3][4]. - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term benefits from increased shipping activity, the overall export volume of photovoltaic components will likely decline significantly in the future, putting pressure on long-term shipping rates [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the lithium battery industry and the new energy vehicle market in China, highlighting trends, policy changes, and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points on Lithium Battery Industry - **Strong Production Data**: Despite the off-season, production data remains robust, indicating strong demand bolstered by export tax rebate policies, particularly benefiting separator and lithium-containing material investments [1][3]. - **Anti-Dumping Meeting Insights**: The recent anti-dumping meeting emphasized capacity, pricing, intellectual property, and quality supervision. It aims to strengthen market price enforcement and cost monitoring, ensuring healthy industry development [4]. - **Export Tax Policy Changes**: Starting April 1, 2026, certain lithium battery materials will see export tax rebates canceled, while lithium batteries will have a one-year buffer period. This policy is expected to enhance the bargaining power and technical strength of Chinese companies [5]. - **Material Price Increases**: Recent price hikes for ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate, and electrolytes have been confirmed, with increases of approximately 1,000-2,000 yuan for large customers and even higher for smaller ones, positively impacting industry chain profits [6][12]. - **Positive Outlook for 2026**: The lithium materials sector is expected to perform well, with continuous price increases for separators and a surge in equipment orders from leading companies [7][8]. Solid-State Battery Developments - **Initial Mass Production**: The solid-state battery sector is entering its initial mass production phase in 2026, with several companies beginning vehicle testing and making significant progress in lithium sulfide and auxiliary materials [9]. New Energy Vehicle Market Insights - **2025 Performance**: In 2025, China's new energy vehicle retail sales reached 12.809 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales grew over 25% [10]. - **2026 Projections**: The market is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, driven by policy support, trade-in programs, and increased penetration of commercial vehicles [2][10]. Additional Industry Developments - **Storage Systems Growth**: The domestic storage system bidding volume reached approximately 9.3 GWh in December 2025, reflecting a strong demand and significant year-on-year growth [13][14]. - **Sodium-Ion Battery Advancements**: CATL plans to promote sodium-ion batteries across various applications, with mass production of materials expected this year, alongside improvements in charging and swapping infrastructure [15]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the lithium battery and new energy vehicle sectors, highlighting the anticipated growth and ongoing changes in policies and market dynamics.

Group 1 - Hong Kong lithium battery stocks experienced significant gains, with Zhong Chuang Innovation rising approximately 9%, Ganfeng Lithium up nearly 7%, and Tianqi Lithium increasing over 5% [1][2] - The latest price movements for key stocks include Zhong Chuang Innovation at 29.560 with an increase of 8.68%, Ganfeng Lithium at 63.150 with a rise of 6.76%, and BYD at 99.500 with a gain of 3.97% [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products, stating that the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be phased down and ultimately eliminated by 2027 [2] Group 2 - CITIC Futures noted that market trading quickly reacted to the export logic, with policy changes strengthening expectations for short-term demand and increased downstream production [3] - The price of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit for two consecutive days, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassing 170,000 yuan per ton, reaching a new high since October 2023 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in Hong Kong lithium battery stocks following the announcement of changes to export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China [1] - The export tax rebate for battery products will be phased down starting from April 2026, with the rate decreasing from 9% to 6%, and the complete cancellation of the rebate set for 2027 [1] - Market reactions indicate a strong expectation for short-term demand acceleration and increased downstream production, leading to a surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, which hit a new high of over 170,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include: - Zhongchuang Innovation rising approximately 8.68% to 29.560 yuan - Ganfeng Lithium increasing nearly 6.76% to 63.150 yuan - Hongqiao Group up about 5.75% to 0.460 yuan - Tianqi Lithium gaining over 4.81% to 57.700 yuan - BYD shares rising by 3.97% to 99.500 yuan - Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) increasing by 1.94% to 494.600 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that lithium carbonate futures have experienced a significant price increase, reaching a limit up of 12% to 174,060 yuan/ton, marking the second consecutive day of limit up [1] - The CSI sub-sector chemical industry index (000813.CSI) rose by 1.46%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Kasei Bio (up over 13%), Salt Lake Co. (up over 8%), and Xingfa Group (up over 6%) [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) reported a trading volume of 23.516 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 209 million yuan over the past nine trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The increase in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with a notable surge in prices following the adjustment of export tax rebate policies [1] - The market anticipates a "rush to export" due to the expected cancellation of VAT export rebates for battery products starting January 1, 2027, which may further influence demand for lithium carbonate [2] - Short-term demand expectations are strengthening, suggesting that lithium carbonate prices may continue to maintain a strong trend despite potential volatility risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong lithium battery stocks have significantly surged, driven by a new export tax policy announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration [1] - The export tax rate for battery products will be phased down starting in April 2026, decreasing from 9% to 6%, and will be completely eliminated by 2027 [1] - Market reactions indicate a strong expectation for short-term demand increase and downstream production ramp-up, despite unchanged long-term demand logic for new energy and energy storage [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include: - China Innovation Aviation up approximately 9% to 29.560 [2] - Ganfeng Lithium up nearly 7% to 63.150 [2] - Hongqiao Group up nearly 6% to 0.460 [2] - Tianqi Lithium up over 5% to 57.700 [2] - BYD Company up 3.97% to 99.500 [2] - Contemporary Amperex Technology up 1.94% to 494.600 [2] - Lithium carbonate futures have hit the daily limit for two consecutive days, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassing 170,000 yuan per ton, marking a new high since October 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium battery concept stocks have collectively rebounded, driven by changes in export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products, which are expected to influence short-term demand and production schedules [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) increased by 7.1%, reaching 63.35 HKD - CATL (300750)(03750) rose by 1.28%, trading at 491.4 HKD - Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) saw a 5.36% increase, priced at 58 HKD - Zhongxin Innovation (03931) climbed by 6.4%, now at 28.94 HKD [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a phased reduction of export tax rates for battery products starting in 2026, ultimately leading to the cancellation of these rates [1] - CITIC Futures noted that the market reacted quickly to the "export rush" logic due to the policy change [1] Group 3: Market Implications - The adjustment in export tax rates is expected to drive a surge in battery exports before 2026, increasing the demand for lithium ore and lithium hexafluorophosphate, thus tightening supply [1] - Huatai Securities believes that the reduction in export tax rates will lead to the elimination of outdated domestic production capacity in the long term, optimizing the battery industry landscape and benefiting companies with overseas production capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to strong fundamental expectations and multiple positive market news, with the main contract LC2605 rising by 9% to 156,300 yuan/ton [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, is expected to create a short-term "export rush," supporting demand and alleviating concerns about seasonal demand weakness [2]. - The cumulative export volume of power and other batteries from January to November 2025 reached 260.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, indicating that the anticipated "export rush" will have a marginal positive impact on overall lithium carbonate demand [2]. Policy Impact - The reduction and eventual cancellation of the export tax rebate for lithium batteries is seen as a move to guide the industry away from pure scale expansion and to alleviate homogenization competition pressures [4]. - The policy aims to encourage companies to enhance product technology and value, promoting a healthier and more sustainable industry structure [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Current market conditions suggest a gradual accumulation of lithium carbonate inventory, with signs of weakening fundamentals as of early January 2026 [4]. - The market is characterized by strong supply and demand dynamics, with ongoing negotiations between upstream and downstream players affecting price volatility [4]. Future Projections - There is an expectation of continued "export rush" demand from battery manufacturers until the cancellation of the tax rebate in 2027, potentially leading to concentrated short-term demand for lithium carbonate [5]. - However, a significant decline in demand for new energy batteries is anticipated at the beginning of 2026, necessitating production adjustments by battery manufacturers [5]. - The market may face dual impacts from upstream maintenance and traditional seasonal demand downturns, suggesting potential volatility in supply and demand [5].

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 13 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货涨停，主要是由于 1 月 9 日中国财政部与税务总局宣布，自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%； 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。短期锂电池有抢出口预期， 这将令一季度传统淡季不淡，下游补货预期增加， ...