人民财讯1月13日电，华泰证券指出，2026年1月9日，中国财政部、税务总局发布《关于调整光伏等产 品出口退税政策的公告》，宣布自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率 由9%下调至6%，2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。华泰证券认为出口退税率的下调短 期将推动电池2026年抢出口，加剧锂矿、六氟磷酸锂等环节的供需紧张，长期将推动国内落后产能出 清，优化电池行业格局，利好海外产能布局企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has significantly increased due to changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the main contract reaching a new high of over 150,000 yuan per ton on January 12 [1] Group 1: Price Movement - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened at a limit-up price, surpassing the 150,000 yuan per ton mark, marking a new phase high [1] - The recent surge in prices is primarily driven by expectations of "export rush" triggered by adjustments in export tax rebate policies [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current low inventory levels in the industry chain are providing significant short-term support for prices [1] - Despite the rapid increase in prices, there are concerns regarding potential volatility risks in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to strong fundamental expectations and multiple positive market news, particularly the adjustment of export tax policies for battery products in China [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures opened with a limit increase, with the main contract LC2605 rising by 9% to 156,300 yuan/ton [1]. - The price increase reflects a strong performance compared to the non-ferrous sector, influenced by seasonal demand expectations and supply-side news [3]. Group 2: Export Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [2]. - Analysts suggest that this policy may lead to a short-term "export rush," supporting demand and mitigating concerns about seasonal demand weakness [2][4]. - The adjustment aims to guide the battery industry away from a purely scale expansion model and alleviate homogenization competition pressures [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance indicates that from January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of power and other batteries reached 260.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44.2% [2]. - Despite the potential for increased export demand, the overall impact on lithium carbonate supply and demand is expected to be limited, with a gradual accumulation of inventory observed [4][5]. - The market is currently in a phase of strong supply and demand dynamics, with ongoing competition between upstream and downstream players [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the demand for lithium carbonate will remain strong until the cancellation of the export rebate in 2027, with potential for concentrated release of export demand [4]. - However, there are warnings about a significant decline in new energy battery demand at the beginning of 2026, which may lead to production adjustments by battery manufacturers [5]. - The market should closely monitor the actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter and the potential discrepancies between expectations and reality [5].

1月9日，一则调整出口退税政策的公告在光伏圈刷屏。自2026年4月1日起，财政部、税务总局将取消光 伏等产品增值税出口退税。 从退税9%到全面取消，该举措将使光伏企业的出口成本有所上升。"很多光伏工厂都取消工人休假，叫 回来加班。"运去哪一线销售人员向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，国内厂商肯定要赶在4月之前发货，但 上游抢运潮尚未传导至物流端。 预计将会有一波抢运潮 中国光伏行业协会发文称，自2024年以来，我国光伏产品出口价格持续走低，呈现"量增价减"态势。部 分光伏企业会将出口退税额让渡给境外采购方，造成利润流失。尽管调整出口退税并非从根本上解 决"内卷外化"问题的唯一手段，但从长期看，该举措有利于抑制出口价格的过快下滑，降低贸易摩擦发 生的概率。 卢勇告诉记者，光伏组件相关大型企业通常与船司签订长协，以OA联盟（全球集装箱航运领域的重要 合作组织）为主。目前来询价订舱的光伏产品多运往欧洲，还有印度，一旦光伏产品出现抢运提振货 量，其他联盟仍有运力接住外溢需求，因此影响也不会太大。 青岛泰泽国际物流有限公司总经理卢勇告诉记者，目前光伏产品的订舱量未见增长，企业尚需时间反 应，但预计会有一波抢运潮，或将对淡季航 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate continues to surge, driven by changes in export tax policies and strong demand from the battery sector, leading to a "tight balance" in the market [1] Group 1: Price Trends - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate surged by 9%, closing at 156,060 yuan/ton, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reported at 153,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 13,800 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The cumulative increase in the main contract for lithium carbonate over five trading days reached 20.06% [1] - The price of lithium carbonate has risen from 80,000 yuan to over 150,000 yuan within two months, indicating a strong demand-supply relationship [1] Group 2: Export Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate by January 1, 2027 [1] - Battery manufacturers are expected to accelerate procurement plans to avoid rising costs, leading to increased demand for lithium carbonate [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - A research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences has achieved breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, enhancing the efficiency of lithium recovery from brine [1] - The new extraction technology has been successfully applied in a demonstration line capable of producing battery-grade lithium carbonate with a recovery rate exceeding 98% [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to reach 202,000 tons in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 32%, as the demand from the energy storage sector is expected to surpass that from the power battery sector for the first time [1] - The supply side is constrained due to previous low lithium prices, which slowed the progress of some lithium mining projects, while domestic production is expected to increase from salt lakes and the resumption of lithium mica mining in Jiangxi [1] Group 5: Industry Sentiment - The rising prices and strong demand have led to increased confidence in the lithium industry, with many companies expecting significant profit growth [1] - Nearly 50% of surveyed companies believe that the price of lithium carbonate could reach 200,000 yuan per ton, with 30% anticipating prices could rise to 250,000 yuan or more [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to surge, driven by supply-demand dynamics and changes in export tax policies, leading to increased enthusiasm for inventory procurement among downstream battery manufacturers [3][5][9]. Group 1: Price Trends - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate reached a record high of 156,060 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 9% [3]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 153,400 yuan per ton, up by 13,800 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. - In the first five trading days of 2026, the cumulative increase in lithium carbonate prices reached 20.06% [4]. Group 2: Export Tax Policy Impact - The adjustment of export tax rates for battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, is expected to drive battery manufacturers to stock up in advance, thereby increasing demand for lithium carbonate [5][10]. - The export tax rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely eliminated by January 1, 2027 [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a "tight balance" due to high demand from the energy storage sector, with global demand projected to reach 202,000 tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 32% [9]. - The supply side is constrained as previous low lithium prices have slowed the progress of some lithium mining projects, limiting the growth of lithium salt production capacity [10]. Group 4: Industry Confidence and Innovations - Recent breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology have bolstered confidence in the lithium industry, with a new method achieving over 98% lithium recovery from brine [6]. - The enthusiasm for mergers and acquisitions in the lithium sector is rising, reflecting optimism about the future growth potential of the renewable energy industry [7]. Group 5: Inventory and Production Outlook - As of January 8, domestic lithium carbonate inventory was approximately 110,000 tons, with a slight increase from the previous week, primarily concentrated in trading and smelting sectors [11]. - Companies are optimistic about their performance in the first quarter, with many expecting lithium carbonate prices to exceed 200,000 yuan per ton in the near future [11].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged significantly due to changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the main contract reaching a new high of 156,060 yuan/ton on January 12, marking a 9% increase for the day [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On January 12, the lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the daily limit, breaking through the 150,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative increase of over 160% since the low point in June 2025 [2][3]. - The surge in prices is primarily driven by market reactions to adjustments in export tax rebate policies for lithium battery products, which are expected to lead to a concentrated "export rush" [2][3]. - The current low inventory levels across the supply chain are providing significant support for prices, as downstream companies are adjusting their production and procurement strategies in anticipation of policy changes [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, driven by steady growth in electric vehicle sales and expanding demand in the energy storage sector, which is seen as a potential variable for exceeding expectations [3][4]. - The supply side is facing constraints, with new supply primarily relying on leading companies' lithium mining capacity, which is hindered by long construction cycles and stricter environmental regulations [4]. - Institutions believe that the lithium industry is transitioning from a phase of oversupply to a "tight balance" state, with 2026 potentially being a pivotal year for supply-demand relationships [4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Sentiment - Despite the overall positive market sentiment, there are warnings about potential supply-side elasticity and the risks of price volatility due to excessive speculative behavior [5][6]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculation, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange taking action against clients exceeding trading limits on lithium carbonate contracts [5][6].

财政部 税务总局关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告 发布时间：2026-01-08 来源：国家税务总局 【文 号】 财政部 税务总局公告2026年第2号 【成文日期】 2026-01-08 欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 现就调整光伏等产品出口退税政策有关事项公告如下： 一、自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。具体产品清单见附件1。 二、自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退 税。具体产品清单见附件2。 三、对上述产品中征收消费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整，继续适用消费税退（免）税政策。 四、本公告所列产品适用的出口退税率以出口货物报关单注明的出口日期界定。 特此公告。 附件：1 . 光伏等产品清单.pdf （略） 2. 电池产品清单.pdf （略） 2026年1月8日 财政部 税务总局 发〔2008〕86号) 规定: 二、母公司向其子公司提供各项服务, 双方应 签订服务合同或协议,明确规定提供服务的内容、 收费标准及金额等, 凡按上述合同或协议规定所发 生的服务费,母公司应作为营业收入申报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit, surpassing 150,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high with a closing price of 156,060 yuan/ton, reflecting a 9% increase [2][3] - The cumulative increase since the low point in June 2025 has exceeded 160%, making lithium carbonate one of the most watched commodities in the market [3] - The core driver of this price surge is the market's reaction to adjustments in export tax rebate policies, leading to expectations of "export rush" behavior [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The recent rise in lithium carbonate spot prices has reached around 140,000 yuan/ton, with low inventory levels across the supply chain supporting price increases [4] - Anticipation of increased demand in 2026 due to the adjustment of export tax rebates is expected to tighten inventory further, driving prices up [4][5] - The long-term outlook suggests a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with steady growth in electric vehicle sales and potential expansion in energy storage battery demand [5] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains optimistic, but there are warnings about potential supply-side elasticity and the risks of profit-taking due to rapid price increases [6][7] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculative trading, reflecting a commitment to maintaining market order and protecting compliant investors [7][8] - The trading environment is characterized by significant price volatility, necessitating caution among market participants [8]

1月9日，一则调整出口退税政策的公告在光伏圈刷屏。自2026年4月1日起，财政部、税务总局将取消光 伏等产品增值税出口退税。 从退税9%到全面取消，该举措将使光伏企业的出口成本有所上升。"很多光伏工厂都取消工人休假，叫 回来加班。"运去哪一线销售人员向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，国内厂商肯定要赶在4月之前发货，但 上游抢运潮尚未传导至物流端。 预计将会有一波抢运潮 中国光伏行业协会发文称，自2024年以来，我国光伏产品出口价格持续走低，呈现"量增价减"态势。部 分光伏企业会将出口退税额让渡给境外采购方，造成利润流失。尽管调整出口退税并非从根本上解 决"内卷外化"问题的唯一手段，但从长期看，该举措有利于抑制出口价格的过快下滑，降低贸易摩擦发 生的概率。 青岛泰泽国际物流有限公司总经理卢勇告诉记者，目前光伏产品的订舱量未见增长，企业尚需时间反 应，但预计会有一波抢运潮，或将对淡季航运有所帮助。 1月9日，上海出口集装箱综合运价指数为1647.39点，较上期下跌0.5%，欧洲、北美航线即期市场订舱 价格小幅上涨，南美航线运价小幅下跌。叠加春节前后货运淡季，卢勇认为，光伏抢运可缓解运价跌 幅，但不会出现"一船难求"的情 ...