尿素日报 | 2025-08-26 厂家降价吸单，下游采购谨慎 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-25，尿素主力收盘1745元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1700元/吨（-40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-45 元/吨（-46）；河南基差：-35元/吨（-46）；江苏基差：-35元/吨（-36）；尿素生产利润170元/吨（-40），出口利润1270 元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2025-08-25，企业产能利用率83.98%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为102.39 万吨（+6.65），港口样本 库存量为50.10 万吨（+3.70）。 需求端：截至2025-08-25，复合肥产能利用率40.84%（-2.64%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为46.60%（-3.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.06日（-0.23）。 近日受出口影响情绪减弱，厂家降价吸单，下游跟进谨慎，现货跌至前低成交有好转。下游农需淡季，工业需求 复合肥进入秋季肥生产季节，但受阅兵影响，开工率下降，三聚氰胺、板厂开工也 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1810 | 1 0 | 01合约 | 1745 | 6 | 仓 单 | 5123 | 1050 | | 山东现货 | 1810 | 1 0 | 基 差 | 6 5 | 4 | UR综 ...

机构 核心观点 国投安信期货 尿素短期行情受市场情绪及出口影响较大 8月25日盘中，尿素期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至1735.00元。截止收盘，尿素主力合约报1745.00 元，跌幅0.17%。 尿素期货主力小幅下跌0.17%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 五矿期货：预计尿素价格下方空间已较为有限 日产高位，企业利润低位供应压力仍存。需求端复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工降至同比低位，农业需 求进入淡季，国内需求整体缺乏支撑，出口持续推进，港口库存再度走高，当前需求变量主要在出口。 整体来看国内尿素面临低估值弱供需格局，在缺乏实质性利好出现之前价格仍将维持区间运行。鉴于煤 炭价格已逐步见底回升且尿素生产利润低位，预计价格下方空间已较为有限，建议逢低关注多单为主。 中原期货：尿素盘面或震荡偏弱运行 近期装置检修与复产并存，尿素行业日产维持19-20万吨附近波动。库存方面，上游尿素企业库存延续 累积状态，港口货源已环比增加至50.1万吨。需求端，受环保以及成品库存压力影响，复合肥企业开工 环比小幅下滑，成品库存延续增加趋势。但随着备肥时间的逐步缩短，预计月底前后下游提货存边际改 善预期。短期来看，出口情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the urea industry is bearish [1] Report's Core View - The urea futures market showed a downward trend on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. The fundamentals had no significant fluctuations, and short - term bearish sentiment prevailed due to insufficient domestic demand and high inventory levels [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The daily output remained around 190,000 tons, with a narrow - range fluctuation. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the inventory of urea factories was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The participation in the Indian tender was unclear, and the market sentiment was cautious. The short - term outlook was bearish [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1767 yuan/ton, closed at 1739 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92%. The trading volume was 209,301 lots, an increase of 3584 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4237 lots, and short positions increased by 4251 lots [2] - Spot: The futures market declined continuously, and the trading atmosphere was cold. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1720 - 1740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4073, an increase of 500 compared to the previous trading day, with 500 additional receipts from Jilin Yuyuan [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market's mainstream quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.81% [11]

一德期货：短期尿素01暂看1740-1800区间，1-5反套 中金财富期货 内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空间 一德期货 短期尿素01暂看1740-1800区间，1-5反套 创元期货 尿素操作区间1650-1850 中金财富期货：内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空间 目前来看，持续攀升的印标价格反映出海外尿素货源紧缺，理论测算出口利润丰厚，然而这一利好在短 期内难以兑现。参考历史经验，2023年三季度尿素供需紧张引发结构性行情，到年末国内尿素价格暴涨 至高位，致使承储企业亏损严重，全面放开印标有违稳供保价的宗旨。接下来，关注9月中国尿素企业 可能向印度供货的情况，短期消息面对市场情绪扰动较大。我们认为，内盘尿素价格具备一定上涨空 间，但价格过高易触发管制措施，法检政策调整以官宣为准。 8月22日盘中，尿素期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1737.00元。截止发稿，尿素主力合约 报1742.00元，跌幅1.75%。 尿素期货主力跌近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 尿素主流现货1660-1740区间，收单一般；供应端，检修逐渐复产，日产19.27万吨，-0.25；需求端，复 合肥开工转下降 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go short on the 01 - 05 spread when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent export expectations have boosted the urea futures market, making it fluctuate on the strong side, and the spot price has followed suit. However, the new order transaction is average. There is still a large export space in July, and the subsequent implementation needs attention. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, with new capacity coming on - stream, the future urea supply - demand remains loose if the export does not exceed the 2023 level. The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will affect the international market, and the export dynamics should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - As of August 22, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1764 yuan/ton (-12). The small - particle ex - factory prices in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1760 yuan/ton (0), 1760 yuan/ton (-10), and 1760 yuan/ton (-20) respectively. The Shandong basis was - 4 yuan/ton (+2), the Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8), and the Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of August 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Although Jiujiang Xinlianxin (520,000 - ton capacity) and Xinjiang Yihua (600,000 - ton capacity) started maintenance on August 20 for over 20 days, new capacity is being released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 22, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (-10), and the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 22, 2025, the export profit was 1249 yuan/ton (-42). In July, 570,000 tons of urea were exported, and there is still large export space. The Indian NFL issued a urea import tender, which will affect the international market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 22, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak due to the military parade [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 22, 2025, the sample enterprise total inventory was 1.0239 million tons (+66,500), and the port sample inventory was 501,000 tons (+37,000). The upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated and declined, closing at 1776. The decline in the futures market was mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains high, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons. Although the current export policy is unclear, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply under the condition of sufficient domestic supply and low prices. It is necessary to prevent the excessive short - term increase in urea prices, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the decline. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 2.26% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1810 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 1.58%; UR09 closed at 1751 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.79%. [1] - Spot prices: In Henan, the domestic spot price was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%; in Hebei (small - particle), it was 1770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.72%; in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 2.30%. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 40 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 2550 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5250 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.48%; in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton. [1] Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1793 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1804 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1774 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1776 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1788 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 208,609 lots. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread for the 01 - 05 contract when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent market export expectations have boosted the urea futures to fluctuate strongly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards, but the new order trading volume is average. Urea exports in July were 570,000 tons, with a large export space compared to the previously recognized export quota. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Future urea supply and demand may remain loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will boost the international urea market, and the export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The figures include urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The figures include production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][18][20] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The figures include urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][27] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The figures include compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][40][41] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][47][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - In the short term, the export - end information supports the urea valuation, but due to the slow export flow, the feedback on the spot end is relatively limited. Urea presents a pattern of oscillation with support. The daily focus is on the overall spot trading situation [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,788 yuan/ton, down 1; the trading volume was 457,226 lots, up from 401,998 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 208,609 lots, down 4,424; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,573 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 16350.35 million yuan, up 1966.39 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 6, up 81; the Fengxi - to - futures price difference was - 166, up 41; the Dongguang - to - futures price difference was - 16, up 81; the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 25, up 9 [1] Spot Market - Among urea factory prices, the price of Henan Xinlianxin and Yankuang Xinjiang remained unchanged at 1,770 yuan/ton and 1,460 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices of Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 50 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi areas increased by 40 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 82.59%, down 0.65%, and the daily output was 191,200 tons, down 1,500 tons [1] 2. Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. Due to weak domestic demand and lack of market confidence, the overall enterprise inventory was on an upward trend, with inventory increasing in some provinces and decreasing in others [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent market export expectations have been boosted, driving up urea futures. Although there is still significant export space in July, the subsequent domestic demand drive is weak. With high - level urea production and high upstream inventory, future urea supply and demand may remain loose if exports do not exceed last year's total. The cost - side support is average, and the port inventory fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the follow - up export implementation and dynamic changes [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 19, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton (+63). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was - 87 yuan/ton (-63), the Henan basis was - 77 yuan/ton (-63), and the Jiangsu basis was - 77 yuan/ton (-63) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 520,000 tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 600,000 tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20 [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 19, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+0). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 19, 2025, the urea export profit was 1290 yuan/ton (-32). India's NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. August is the export window period, and urea exports continue [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 19, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 43.48% (+1.98%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 49.82% (-11.28%); the urea enterprise's advance order days were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is weak, and the compound fertilizer factory mainly conducts rigid procurement [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 957,400 tons (+69,800), and the port sample inventory was 464,000 tons (-19,000). The port inventory fluctuates slightly [1][2]