Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned [1] 2. Core View - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. The price of urea in July is still supported by the top - dressing demand, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turnaround lies in exports [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Price and Related Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 9, UR01, UR05, UR09, and Shandong urea futures prices (closing prices) were 1736.00 yuan/ton, 1736.00 yuan/ton, 1770.00 yuan/ton, and 1840.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 13.00 yuan/ton (0.75%), 9.00 yuan/ton (0.52%), 7.00 yuan/ton (0.40%), and 20.00 yuan/ton (1.10%) compared to July 8 [1] - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in different regions on July 9 showed varying degrees of change compared to July 8. For example, the prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1700.00 yuan/ton, 1840.00 yuan/ton, 1800.00 yuan/ton, 1880.00 yuan/ton, and 1850.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 20.00 yuan/ton (1.19%), 30.00 yuan/ton (1.66%), 20.00 yuan/ton (1.12%), 0.00 yuan/ton (0.00%), and 10.00 yuan/ton (0.54%) [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 104.00 yuan/ton on July 9, an increase of 11.00 yuan compared to July 8. The 01 - 05 spread was 0.00 yuan/ton on July 9, an increase of 4.00 yuan compared to July 8 [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080.00 yuan/ton and 820.00 yuan/ton respectively on July 9 compared to July 8 [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930.00 yuan/ton and 2520.00 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17.00 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) to 5006.00 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1775 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1763 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1770 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1771 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 211186 lots [1] Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong - side shock and closed at 1770. The supply pressure of urea is still large, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port - collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still about 880,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, so low - buying opportunities can be considered. But if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，印度招标价预计进一步抬 升，国际尿素价格偏强。国内供应方面，开工率有所回落但仍偏高，库存小幅波动。需求端，工 业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求预期再次转淡。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1850（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差80，升贴水比例4.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.6万吨（+6.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； ...

2025 年 07 月 10 日 尿素：小幅探涨格局延续 | | | 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,770 | 1,763 | 7 -27101 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,771 | 1,755 | 1 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 166,296 | 193,397 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 211,186 | 214,386 | -3200 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,245 | 2,607 | -362 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 588,944 | 678,928 | -89984 | | | | | 山东地区基差 | 7 0 | 5 7 | 1 3 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -90 | -83 | - 7 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜 ...

【冠通研究】 现货市场热情高涨 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 9 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面高开低走，日内维持高位运行。现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂 出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极，目前工厂待发充足，预计后续暂无降价压 力。基本面来看，日产变动不大，前期检修装置本期陆续有复产情况，预计产 量将有增加。需求端，市场有效需求偏弱，农业需求及工业需求拿货谨慎，刚 需补库为主。农业需求状况好于工业需求，天气多发降雨，农业需求目前也维 持低位拿货，适量补库，预计本月东北华北地区都将迎来收尾，届时将迎来空 窗期。复合肥工厂开工负荷低位，处于秋季肥生产初期阶段，订单以去化厂内 库存为主，工厂销售压力不大，秋季肥多为预收订单，工厂目前观望情绪浓 厚，对尿素保持刚需拿货。虽目前工业需求偏弱，但出口订单依然在发运，农 业需求有局部增量，库存连续去化。整体来说，受印标价格好转的影响，国内 尿素情绪同样高涨，今日期现价格呈现不同幅度的上涨，现货端更出现停售现 象。工厂出口订单支撑，集港陆续进行，盘面依然有支撑，短期依旧以震荡偏 强为主，继续关注出口政策情况。 1 现货方面：现货市场较前期火爆，多家工厂出现停售现象，贸易商拿货积极， ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-09 夏肥支撑盘面，等待印标价格公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-08，尿素主力收盘1763元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1810 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1820元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：57 元/吨（-15）；河南基差：47元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：77元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润290元/吨（+0），出口利润701 元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-08，企业产能利用率84.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-08，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 目前夏季用肥支撑尿素盘面价格，等待印标价格公布。尿素部分计划检修装置推迟停车，产量继续高位运行。北 方局部区域追肥用量继续释放，农需继续推进。复合肥维持季节性淡季，三聚氰胺开工低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of urea remains high, with high daily production. Although the enterprise inventory decreased slightly last week mainly due to increased port collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 880,000 tons [1]. - The top - dressing demand in July will support the urea price, so there may be opportunities for low - buying in July. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot make up for it, the urea price will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 8, compared with July 7, UR01 rose from 1712 yuan/ton to 1723 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR05 rose from 1716 yuan/ton to 1727 yuan/ton (up 0.64%), UR09 rose from 1748 yuan/ton to 1763 yuan/ton (up 0.86%), and the price in Shanxi rose from 1670 yuan/ton to 1680 yuan/ton (up 0.60%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7 [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged on July 8 compared with July 7. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5023 yuan/ton (down 0.53%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 104 yuan/ton to 93 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1745 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1769 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1737 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1763 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton, and the holding volume was 214,386 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR showed a strong sideways movement, closing at 1763. There may be low - buying opportunities in July, but attention should be paid to the impact of the change in domestic agricultural demand and export demand on prices [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-8 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国际局势波动导致尿素供应紧张，印度招标价预计进一步抬 升，国际尿素价格偏强。国内供应方面，开工率有所回落但仍偏高，库存小幅波动。需求端，工 业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求预期再次转淡。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1850（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差102，升贴水比例5.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.6万吨（+6.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡运行 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ➢ 国际现货：中国散装小颗粒离岸价375.01-390.01美元/吨，较上周下调15-30美元/吨；黑海小颗粒港口离岸价390.01-410.01美元/吨，下调5-55美 元/吨；波罗的海小颗粒港口离岸价385.01-405.01美元/吨，下调5-55美元/吨；中东小颗粒港口离岸395.01-440.01美元/吨，上调1-18美元/吨；巴 西小颗粒CFR价格415.01-435.01美元/吨，下调5-35美元/吨；印度到岸价399.01美元/吨，较上周持平。 ➢ 尿素现货：短期尿素市场内贸刚需采购及出口提货做支撑，价格震荡运行。预计下周震荡运行格局延续。2025年6月25日，中国尿素企业总库存量 109.59万吨，较上 ...

| | | 尿素早评20250704: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 変化值 变化值 单位 7月3日 7月2日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1699.00 | 1698.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% 0.56% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1713.00 | 1710.00 | 3.00 | 0.18% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1737.00 | 1739.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1800.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1660.00 | 10.00 0.00 | | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1780.00 | 20.00 | 1.12% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 ...

Morning session notice 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 7 | 元至 | 1737 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | | | | | | 涨 | 20 | 至 | 1800 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 1517 | 手至 | 17.34 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 2269 | 手至 | 19.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开工 | 85.79%，较去年同期 | 78.27%提升 | 7.52% ...