Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels. Strategically, pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1692.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 5.00 yuan (0.30%) from December 2 [1] - UR05: 1748.00 yuan/ton on December 3, down 4.00 yuan (-0.23%) from December 2 [1] - UR09: 1768.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - Shandong: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Shanxi: 1540.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Henan: 1690.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 10.00 yuan (0.60%) from December 2 [1] - Hebei: 1710.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Northeast: 1740.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Jiangsu: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR basis: -68.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 4.00 yuan from December 2 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: -56.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 9.00 yuan from December 2 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices: 1030.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 930.00 yuan/ton in Shanxi on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices: 3060.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 2620.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Melamine prices: 5217.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 5250.00 yuan/ton in Jiangsu on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1684 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1697 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1679 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1692 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1690 yuan/ton [1] Multi - Empty Logic - From a valuation perspective, the rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，重回近年高位，综合库存有所回落，去库形态 较明显。需求端，农业需求近期有所提升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比均 有所回升。出口内外价差大，库存去库叠加农储需求提升，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍供过 于求。交割品现货1660（+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-17，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存146.4万吨（-7.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡反弹 ...

成文日期：20251126 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251126）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡上涨，收盘价为 1654 元/吨。最高达 1663 元/吨，最低为 1625 元/吨,成交量 20.8 万 手，较上日增加 11.02 万手，持仓量 22.9 万手，较上日减少 0.5 万 手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线级别图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 | 合约名称 | 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 日増仓 成交量 | | --- | --- | | 尿茎2512 | 1639 20 1.24% 3388 -608 | | 尿素2601 M | 1654 21 1.29% 229335 -4980 208209 1630 | | 展素2602 - | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait and see - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, and the spot price has been raised. The restart of shutdown plants in Shanxi and Hebei and the increase in the operating rate of large enterprises in Hubei have led to an overall increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off-season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium- and long-term supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose, and the gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Driven by reserve demand and the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with inventory reduction at factories and a slight increase in port inventory. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia, and the reserve demand in the Northeast has increased, leading to inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Continued attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. The urea import tender of India's IPL closed on November 20, with the lowest CFR prices of $418.40/ton at the East Coast and $419.50/ton at the West Coast. A total of 24 suppliers' quantities were received, and the lowest price was higher than the previous one. Continuous attention should be paid to the sentiment and rhythm of domestic spot procurement. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,668 yuan/ton (+14). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was quoted at 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price in Shandong was 1,650 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was -18 yuan/ton (+6), the basis in Henan was -18 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in Jiangsu was -28 yuan/ton (+6). [1] Urea Production - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of November 27, 2025, the production profit of urea was 120 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,014 yuan/ton (+10). [1] Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06% (+2.45%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47). [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1]

【冠通期货研究报告】 关注下游需求持续性 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 27 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开高走，日内上涨。行情稳中有所好转，报价抬升，低价报价反 弹后，收单依旧良好。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1580-1610 元/吨，反弹 10 元/吨左右，高端报价在河北地区。基本面来看，日产 大幅偏高于历年同期，气头装置季节性停产以前，上游工厂装置日产将高位运行， 今日日产数据同比去年偏高 6%左右。复合肥工厂开工继续进行，一方面冬储肥 生产以后，生产负荷逐步爬升，虽近期预收单状况欠佳，但目前待发依旧充足， 预计下周将继续提升开工率。本期复合肥工厂开工环比回升 2.45 个百分点。近 期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增加，叠加储备 需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。整体来说，供需双增，尿素价格 低位偏强震荡，价格上下均有压制，盘面价格窄幅波动为主，目前需求以储备型 需求为主，持续性不足，关注价格上涨后下游接受情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1653 元/吨开盘, 高开高走，日内上涨，最 终收于 1668 元/吨， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-11-27 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，综合库存回落。需求端，农业需求受东北影响 回升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比有所回升。随着新疆中能等新增产能中 旬投产，供应端压力再次增加。出口内外价差大，出口较前期好转，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1630（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-24，升贴水比例-1.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存153.7万吨（-2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期： ...

2025 年 11 月 27 日 【行业新闻】 尿素：区间运行，日内主要跟随现货情绪 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,654 | 1,630 | 2 4 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,649 | 1,633 | 1 6 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 208,209 | 97,807 | 110402 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 229,335 | 234,315 | -4980 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,390 | 7,302 | 8 8 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 686,604 | 319,523 | 367081 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -24 | 0 | -24 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -154 | -130 | -2 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 库存连续数周去化 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面低开高走，日内偏强。现货价格依然走弱，但受期货上涨影响，市 场低价成交良好，部分工厂出现停售现象。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿 素出厂价格范围在 1570-1620 元/吨，低端价格成交较好，高端价位成交氛围一 般。基本面来看，日产目前大幅偏高于历年同期，预计在气头装置季节性停产以 前，上游工厂装置日产将在 19 万吨以上波动，煤炭成本端，上涨趋势放缓，下 游需求有待验证，若旺季证伪，成本端支撑将下移。本期复合肥工厂开工负荷回 升，上周环保检查结束后，企业装置逐渐恢复生产，且东北地区部分装置开始开 工，部分装置开工负荷已提升至较高水平，目前企业通过原料采购情况进行预收 单的处理。近期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增 加，叠加储备需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。 整体来说，市场 低价成交增多，需求好转，盘面价格反弹，上方供应充足压制下，反弹受限。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1630 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内偏强，最 终收于 1654 元 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The urea spot price has slightly declined, with the trading atmosphere weakening recently after being good last week. The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased, and the off - season storage is gradually entering the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - batch export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The author suggests a range - bound strategy for unilateral trading and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, with no cross - variety strategy [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,630 yuan/ton (-8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-2), in Henan was 10 yuan/ton (-2), and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (with a 0.08% change). The specific production data is shown in the "Urea Weekly Production" chart [1]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (-10). The national capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), with coal - based capacity utilization rate and gas - based capacity utilization rate details shown in relevant charts [1]. 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of November 25, 2025, the urea export profit was 1,012 yuan/ton (+6). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which has improved the year - end export expectation [1][2]. 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 34.61% (+4.29%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (-46,400), and the port sample inventory was 100,000 tons (+18,000) [1].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea enterprise transaction atmosphere has weakened recently, and prices may slightly correct. In the medium to long - term, urea supply - demand remains relatively loose due to new capacity release. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start in December. The export quota news has improved the end - of - year export expectations and is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of Northeast compound fertilizers, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off - season storage rhythm [2]. - The strategy for urea investment is: unilateral trading should be in a range - bound mode, cross - period trading should be on hold, and there is no cross - variety trading strategy [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 24, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1638 yuan/ton (-16). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1650 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1630 yuan/ton (-10). The Shandong basis was 2 yuan/ton (+6), the Henan basis was 12 yuan/ton (+16), and the Jiangsu basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+6) [1]. 2. Urea Production - As of November 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64) [1]. 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 24, 2025, the urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-10), and the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively [1]. 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. As of November 24, 2025, the urea export profit was 1007 yuan/ton (-18) [1][2]. 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively, and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 24, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10 million tons (+1.80) [1].