尿素月报 | 2026-01-04 需求柔性支撑，关注采购节奏及消息扰动 市场要闻与数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1749元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒市场价1700元/吨（+10）；山东小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）； 江苏小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-39元/吨（-6）；河南尿素基差-49元/吨（+4）；江苏尿素基差-39 元/吨（-6）。12月先跌后涨，上半月随着下游畏高情绪凸显，储备节奏放缓，期现价格共振下跌。部分区域环保限 制导致下游开工下降，随后上游部分企业也受影响供应下滑，月中随着印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，尿素 现货成交氛围好转，带动价格上涨，环保预警再现，尿素部分上下游开工受限，现货价格降价吸单，现货采购情 绪再度好转。 供应端：截至2026-01-04，企业产能利用率78.78%（-1.9%）；尿素月度产量为600万吨，同比+7.66%。尿素12月部 分气头进入检修，装置检修与复产并行，月度产量较11月小幅增加。8月安徽中能、章丘日月投产，9月九江心连 心投产，10月甘肃金昌投产，11月新疆中能投产。1月暂定3套气头装置计划检修，部分气头检修企业以及前期技 改装置回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - term: Go for positive spreads on UR05 - 09 when the price is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea futures and spot prices improved in sentiment due to export news. Despite market rumors being refuted, pre - New Year's Eve enterprises still had order - collection needs, leading to better procurement sentiment in the urea spot market. - Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may further suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There are expectations of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance starting in December. - Demand - side off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental warnings. - The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,743 yuan/ton (+8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged). The small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8), the Henan basis was - 53 yuan/ton (-18), and the Jiangsu basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8) [1] II. Urea Output - As of December 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.78% (0.08% change) [1] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 30, 2025, the urea production profit was 131 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] IV. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of December 30, 2025, the export profit was 822 yuan/ton (+10) [1] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 30, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.75% (-1.62%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.07% (-0.48%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.35 days (+0.11) [1] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 106.89 million tons (-11.08), and the port sample inventory was 17.70 million tons (+3.90) [1]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 8 元至 1743 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 | | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The decline space of urea is limited, with support at the price of 1600. The reasons include: recent inspections of domestic gas - based plants leading to a decline in daily production, but high production and operation rates year - on - year; demand in the off - season with mainly reserve inventory, and an increase in demand for industrial compound fertilizers; a slight increase in cost support around 1500 - 1550; the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas with an expected quantity of about 600,000 tons. Overall, the downward drive of urea slows down under the adjustment of off - season storage and exports, and it should be treated as a range - bound situation [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - **Cost - end logic**: Coal prices have declined recently, while urea ex - factory prices have slightly increased. Coal - based urea profits are still low, close to the production cost of anthracite - based urea. The natural gas price in the southwest region remains stable, and gas - based urea profits are also low [8]. - **Supply - end logic**: Domestic gas - based plants are gradually under inspection, resulting in a decline in domestic production on a month - on - month basis, but the absolute quantity remains high, and the supply side is generally loose [8]. - **Demand - end logic**: In the agricultural sector, demand is in the traditional off - season with weak support, mainly for reserve replenishment. In the industrial sector, the compound fertilizer industry has a high operating rate, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. After the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas, speculative demand has weakened. Overall, domestic urea supply remains high with difficult - to - relieve pressure. Although agricultural demand is in the off - season, off - season storage is in an orderly manner, and the compound fertilizer industry maintains a high operating rate. Overall demand has slightly increased. With mid - stream reserve replenishment and exports, urea enterprise inventories have continuously decreased, and the fundamentals support a short - term bottom - rebound of spot prices [8]. 3.2 Price, Spread, and Profit - **Urea price changes**: This week, the urea spot market price has slightly increased, with mainstream regional prices rising by about 10 - 30 yuan/ton on a month - on - month basis. Local environmental warnings have affected the compound fertilizer industry and urea production, and market speculation about exports has stimulated downstream purchasing. Urea factory inventories have decreased, and orders have increased, with a firm price - quoting intention [27]. - **Regional spreads**: This week, regional spreads are within the normal range, which can be used to judge whether the regional logistics window is open [39][40]. - **Urea profits**: Coal - based urea profits remain low, close to the break - even point of anthracite - based production. Gas - based urea profits also remain low. The current ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, while the ratios to phosphate fertilizers and potash fertilizers are at low levels in previous years [63][66]. - **Overseas prices and spreads**: India has issued a new urea import tender, which has led to a rebound in the international urea market. Different regions have different price trends. The 5 - 9 spread of urea has strengthened by 15 yuan/ton this week, and the basis has weakened, for example, the 05 - contract basis in Henan has weakened by 18 yuan/ton compared to last week [78][89]. 3.3 Supply - Production and Operation - **Output and operation rate (Longzhong data)**: Urea daily production and operation rates are presented in the data, showing the operation of domestic urea plants [94]. - **Output and operation rate (Baichuan data)**: This cycle, domestic urea production is 1.3334 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons from last week. The operation rate is 78.77%, a decrease of 1.92%. Among them, coal - based urea is 87.06%, and gas - based urea is 50.37% [96]. - **Capacity investment and maintenance**: In 2025, the domestic urea capacity is 79.8 million tons, and it is planned to put into production 5.95 million tons in 2026, with an expected capacity growth rate of about 7.45%. By the end of 2026, the urea capacity is expected to reach 95.75 million tons. This week, the domestic urea plant maintenance loss is 301,700 tons, an increase of 11,800 tons from last week [102][113]. 3.4 Demand - **Agricultural fertilization**: Currently, agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, mainly for reserve replenishment [8]. - **Compound fertilizers**: This cycle, the compound fertilizer market has partially increased, with an operation rate of 37.75%, a decrease of 1.62% from last week. Inventories have increased by 6,600 tons to 702,000 tons [129]. - **Melamine**: This week, melamine production is 30,200 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from last week. The operation rate is 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48%. The domestic melamine market has shown a narrow - range downward trend, with some fluctuations in production capacity utilization and market sentiment [143]. 3.5 Inventory - **Longzhong data**: This week, urea enterprise inventories are 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from last week. Port inventories are 177,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from last week [144]. - **Baichuan data**: This week, enterprise inventories are 1.1128 million tons, a decrease of 94,400 tons from last week. Port inventories are 152,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week [150].

2025 年 12 月 31 日 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,743 | 1,735 | 8 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,749 | 1,735 | 1 4 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 172,512 | 114,679 | 57833 | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 204,038 | 194,803 | 9235 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 12,381 | 10,750 | 1631 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 603,425 | 397,878 | 205547 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -33 | -25 | - 8 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -183 | -175 | - 8 | | | | 东光-盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea ex - factory prices have slightly decreased to attract orders, and transactions in some major producing areas have improved slightly. Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may continue to suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There is an expectation of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter due to gas - head maintenance starting in December and environmental warnings. On the demand side, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer sector has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased despite the resumption of some shutdown and production - cut devices. Factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, the raw material procurement rhythm of compound fertilizers, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][9][12][15] 3.2 Urea Production - Figures include urea weekly production and urea device maintenance loss volume [18] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][28][30] 3.4 Urea Foreign Prices and Export Profit - Figures show urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][40][43] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures involve compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [51][53] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [54][56][63]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on December 26, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1735 (-1/-0.06%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were stable, but order intake was weak. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1640-1670 yuan/ton, Shandong small particles 1670-1710 yuan/ton, Hebei small particles 1700-1720 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small particles 1600-1620 yuan/ton, Anhui small particles 1660-1670 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540-1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On December 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 193,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous working day and 17,600 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on that day was 80.19%, a 1.43% increase from 78.76% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Regional Market Conditions: In Shandong, the mainstream factory quotes were weakly stable, with cooling market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and factory quotes followed the price decline. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, factory prices were firm, and the market atmosphere was positive [5] - Supply and Demand Fundamentals: Domestic gas-based plants began maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 190,000 tons but remained at a high level. The international market saw India's new tender for a total of 1.5 million tons, but the impact on the domestic market was limited. The compound fertilizer demand in the Central Plains and Northeast regions slowed down, and the procurement progress of off-season storage enterprises was basically over 70% [5] - Price Outlook: In the short term, there was downward pressure on prices. In the medium term, the supply-demand fundamentals of urea remained relatively loose, and the acceptance of higher prices by downstream buyers decreased [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single-Side Strategy: Short in the short term but avoid chasing short positions [6] - Arbitrage Strategy: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [6] - Option Strategy: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-26 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率、三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期出口配额企业 多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，周中印标消息公布提振盘面，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割 品现货1710（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-30，升贴水比例-1.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存131.8万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-25 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率、三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期出口配额企业 多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，周中印标消息公布提振盘面，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割 品现货1710（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-25，升贴水比例-1.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存131.8万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 尿素：中期中枢上移 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,735 | 1,721 | 1 4 -11425 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,732 | 1,713 | 1 9 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 166,721 | 178,146 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 187,367 | 179,049 | 8318 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 10,432 | 10,532 | -100 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 577,437 | 610,495 | -33058 | | | | | 山东地区基差 | -5 | -1 | - 4 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -175 | -161 | -14 | | | | 东光- ...