Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] - Inter - period: On the sidelines [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices have slightly increased, and with the rise of the futures market, spot trading has improved. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilizer application for agriculture, and the production of autumn compound fertilizers is coming to an end. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased this week. As the weather clears, the sales sentiment has improved. The operating rate of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium to long term, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down this week. The current national inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. Starting from late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast are gradually starting operations. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast and the national off - season storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and September and October are still export windows. There is co - existence of port collection and departure, leading to inventory reduction. The export policy of urea may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent export dynamics [3] Summary by Directory Price and Spreads - Urea futures prices: The main urea contract closed at 1642 yuan/ton (+4). The prices of small - particle urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu markets were all 1570 yuan/ton (+20). The prices of different contracts (01, 05, 09) are also presented in the report [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads are analyzed. The basis of urea in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu is - 72 yuan/ton (+16) [2] Upstream Supply - As of October 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 77.61% (-2.06%), and the in - plant inventory of enterprises was 1.63 million tons (+15,000). The gas - based and coal - based operating rates of urea, as well as the production cost and profit, are also presented in the relevant figures [2][30] Downstream Demand - As of October 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 27.71% (+3.53%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 48.30% (-6.9%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 7.41 days (+0.7). The FOB prices of small and large - particle urea in China, as well as the CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia, are also analyzed [2][39] Urea Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the port inventory was 210,000 tons (-236,000). The in - plant inventory, port inventory, and social inventories in Guangdong and Guangxi are also presented in the figures [2][58]

尿素日报 | 2025-10-23 厂内库存累库速度放缓 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-22，尿素主力收盘1621元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1540 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1540元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1540元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-81 元/吨（-12）；河南基差：-81元/吨（-12）；江苏基差：-81元/吨（-22）；尿素生产利润10元/吨（+0），出口利润992 元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-10-22，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为163.02 万吨（+1.48），港口样本 库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-22，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.41日（+0.70）。 尿素现货稳定为主，伴随盘面小幅上涨，现货成交好转，但下游采购依旧谨慎。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中， 复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较多， ...

[尿ta素ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 21 日 低估值，待驱动 风险提示：出口政策收紧，老旧装置改造延迟。 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《尿素周报 0722：基本面偏弱，价格重 心下移》 《尿素周报 0812：出口炒作影响盘面情 绪》 《尿素周报 0826：短期反弹，空间有限》 《尿素周报 0909：供强需弱格局延续》 《尿素周报 1021：供应过剩是中长期矛 盾》 《尿素周报 1104：关注反弹后的卖出机 会》 《尿素周报 1118：维持空配观点》 《尿素周报 0217：出口传言再起》 《尿素周报 0310：供需双旺，价格区间 震荡为主》 《尿素周报 0401：需求支撑价格》 《尿素周报 0520：回落空间有限》 《尿素周报0916：做多机会或逐步到来》 期货（期权）研究报告 | 一、 行情回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 0915-1020：震荡下跌 | 4 | | 二、 基差与价差 | 4 | ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡，最终报收 1609（+2/+0.12%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下调，成交一般，河南出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1490-1500 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1540-1550 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1400-1470 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【隆众尿素】10 月 21 日，尿素行业日产 18.25 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.03 万吨； 较去年同期减少 0.66 万吨；今日开工率 77.99%，较去年同期 84.82%下降 6.83%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区 主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕， 成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交 乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸 易 ...

策略 尿素日报 | 2025-10-21 尿素9月出口137万吨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-20，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-50元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（-10），出口利润983元 /吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-20，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-20，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行 中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，综合库存显著累积。需求端，工业 及农业需求均偏弱，农需受天气影响需求偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价差较 大但对国内价格支撑有限。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1550（+10），基本面整 体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-54，升贴水比例-3.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存185.9万吨（+17.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强 ...

截至2025年10月17日当周，尿素期货主力合约收于1602元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持25118 手。 本周（10月13日-10月17日）市场上看，尿素期货周内开盘报1590元/吨，最高触及1617元/吨，最低下探 至1578元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.06%。 消息面回顾： 10月17日，山西兰花尿素汽提大颗粒出厂报价上调5元/吨至1610元/吨；安徽红四方尿素出厂报价稳定 至1570元/吨；宁夏和宁尿素执行1510元/吨，装置停车检修，该厂产能70万吨。 截至10月15日，国内尿素企业总库存量161.54万吨，较上周增加17.15万吨，环比增加11.88%。 北方近期连续降雨，农业需求推后，尿素流向下降；复合肥企业装置减负荷停车进一步增多，短期企业 继续清降库存，装置开工率或多维持低位。 机构观点汇总： 一德期货：供应端，日产18.12万吨，-0.34，突发故障，供给回落较多；需求端，复合肥开工低位，以 销定产，消化库存阶段，三聚氰胺开工持平，出口离港为主，短期供需维持宽松；关注宏观面、小麦肥 启动采购托底，出口消息等；印标开标，投标量366万吨，计划购买量200万吨；短期01暂看1580-165 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-10-17 港口库存小幅累库 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-16，尿素主力收盘1604元/吨（+4）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-44 元/吨（+6）；河南基差：-54元/吨（+6）；江苏基差：-44元/吨（-4）；尿素生产利润30元/吨（+10），出口利润989 元/吨（+3）。 供应端：截至2025-10-16，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-16，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，山西及内蒙低价成交延续。目前部分地区农业秋季 肥进行中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较多，今 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by low downstream demand despite some improvement in purchasing due to better weather. The market is expected to remain in a short - term low - level oscillation, with attention on winter storage. Although the upstream factories are holding up prices, the demand is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation and weak market performance [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and ended up closing slightly higher. Upstream factories are trying to maintain prices, but downstream demand is low and trading is inactive. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton [1][3]. - India's RCF urea import tender on October 15 received 25 offers, with a total bid volume of about 3.7019 million tons, including 1.9532 million tons for the west coast and 1.7487 million tons for the east coast [1]. - The daily urea production is around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. Next week, more enterprises are expected to be under maintenance than resuming production, so production may slightly decrease. Demand is weak, with agricultural dealers being cautious in stockpiling, compound fertilizer factories reducing their operating rates, and other industrial demands affected by rainfall [1]. - Domestic demand is sluggish, and urea inventories in factories are accumulating at an increasing rate. Although the purchasing situation has improved with better weather, the market is still weak and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [1]. Futures Market - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1599 yuan/ton, went down during the session, and closed at 1604 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The trading volume was 315,491 lots, a decrease of 7,195 lots [2]. - On October 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,438, a decrease of 55 from the previous trading day. Among them, Heilongjiang Longxin decreased by 15 and Liaoning Fertilizer decreased by 40 [2]. - Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 2,762 lots and the short positions decreased by 4,873 lots. For example, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions decreased by 2,552 lots, and CITIC Futures' net short positions decreased by 5,911 lots [2]. Spot Market - Upstream factories are holding up prices, but downstream demand is low, and trading is inactive. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton [1][3]. Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was - 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [6]. - On October 16, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.14% [7]. - From October 10 to October 16, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week [9].

尿素日报 | 2025-10-16 厂内库存继续累积，印标投标数量公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-15，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（+3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1540 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-3）；河南基差：-60元/吨（-3）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（-3）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（+0），出口利润986元/ 吨（-30）。 供应端：截至2025-10-15，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-15，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 企业近期下调报价，低价成交好转，主流区域成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，山西及内蒙低价成 交延续。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合肥开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以 ...