9月15日，国家统计局发布《2025年1-8月份全国房地产市场基本情况》，数据显示，1-8月，全国新建商 品房销售面积同比下降4.7%，降幅较去年同期及去年全年明显收窄，但较1-7月有所扩大。投资开工降幅 同样扩大，市场淡季行情延续。 需求：1-8月全国新建商品房销售面积5.73亿平米，同比下降4.7% 销售面积：根据国家统计局数据，1-8月，全国新建商品房销售面积5.73亿平方米，同比下降4.7%，降幅 比去年同期收窄13.3个百分点，比去年全年收窄8.2个百分点；住宅销售面积4.81亿平米，同比下降 4.7%。 销售额：1-8月，新建商品房销售额5.50万亿元，同比下降7.3%，降幅比去年同期收窄16.3个百分点，比 去年全年收窄9.8个百分点；其中住宅销售额4.84万亿元，同比下降7.0%。 图：全国新建商品房累计销售面积以及销售额同比增速 供应：新开工降幅基本持平，投资降幅略有扩大 房地产开发投资额：1-8月，全国房地产开发投资额为6.03万亿元，同比下降12.9%；其中，住宅开发投 资额4.64万亿元，同比下降11.9%。 图：2015年至今房地产和住宅累计开发投资及其同比增速 房屋施工面积：1-8 ...

9月15日，国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，8月份，70个大中城市中，新房价格环比上涨城市有所增加。同时，多数 城市房价同比降幅有所收窄，其中，一、二、三线城市新房价格同比降幅均收窄；二、三线城市二手房价格同比降幅 均收窄。 从房价涨幅来看，上海新房价格同环比涨幅居前，长春二手房价格环比涨幅居前。 业内人士认为，8月市场进一步朝止跌回稳方向迈进，9月上半月的市场相比8月有所好转，建议积极做好"金九银十"阶段 的楼市提振工作，未来房地产市场止跌回稳的趋势不变。 从二手房来看，8月份，一线城市二手房价环比下降1.0%，降幅与上月相同。其中，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降 1.2%、1.0%、0.9%和0.8%。二线城市二手房价格环比下降0.6%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。三线城市二手房价格环比下降 0.5%，降幅与上月相同。 8月份，新房价格环比上涨的城市有9个，比上月增加3个。其中，上海、杭州、宜昌涨幅均为0.4%，并列第一；南宁涨幅 为0.3%，位列第二；沈阳、合肥、吉林涨幅均为0.2%，并列第三。另外，二手房价环比上涨的城市只有长春1个，涨幅为 0.1%。 同比来看，8月份，一线城市新房价格同比下降0.9%，降 ...

未来房地产市场止跌回稳的趋势不变。 9月15日，国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，8月份，70个大中城市中，新房价格环比上涨城市有所增 加。同时，多数城市房价同比降幅有所收窄，其中，一、二、三线城市新房价格同比降幅均收窄；二、 三线城市二手房价格同比降幅均收窄。 从房价涨幅来看，上海新房价格同环比涨幅居前，长春二手房价格环比涨幅居前。 业内人士认为，8月市场进一步朝止跌回稳方向迈进，9月上半月的市场相比8月有所好转，建议积极做 好"金九银十"阶段的楼市提振工作，未来房地产市场止跌回稳的趋势不变。 8月份，新房价格环比上涨的城市有9个，比上月增加3个。其中，上海、杭州、宜昌涨幅均为0.4%，并 列第一；南宁涨幅为0.3%，位列第二；沈阳、合肥、吉林涨幅均为0.2%，并列第三。另外，二手房价 环比上涨的城市只有长春1个，涨幅为0.1%。 同比来看，8月份，一线城市新房价格同比下降0.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点。其中，上海上涨 5.9%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降3.5%、4.3%和1.7%。二、三线城市新房价格同比分别下降2.4%和 3.7%，降幅分别收窄0.4个和0.5个百分点。 二手房价同比来看，8月份，一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a continued narrowing of the year-on-year decline in housing prices across various city tiers as of August 2025 [1][5][6]. Group 1: New Residential Prices - In August 2025, new residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.4% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively [1][5]. - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price drop of 0.3%, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 0.4% [1]. - Year-on-year, new residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9%, with Shanghai increasing by 5.9% and declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen of 3.5%, 4.3%, and 1.7% respectively [5]. Group 2: Second-hand Residential Prices - Second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experiencing declines of 1.2%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [1][5]. - Second-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, while third-tier cities experienced a 0.5% decrease [1]. - Year-on-year, second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 3.5%, with the decline in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen being 3.1%, 2.6%, 6.2%, and 1.9% respectively [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Policies - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that despite fluctuations in the real estate market due to domestic and international factors, the overall decline in sales and prices is narrowing, reflecting effective inventory reduction [5][6]. - Recent adjustments in housing policies in certain cities have shown positive effects, leading to improved market transactions [6]. - The government emphasizes the need for continued efforts to stabilize the real estate market and promote the release of housing demand [6].

未来房地产市场止跌回稳的趋势不变。 从二手房来看，8月份，一线城市二手房价环比下降1.0%，降幅与上月相同。其中，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降1.2%、1.0%、0.9%和0.8%。二线城 市二手房价格环比下降0.6%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。三线城市二手房价格环比下降0.5%，降幅与上月相同。 8月份，新房价格环比上涨的城市有9个，比上月增加3个。其中，上海、杭州、宜昌涨幅均为0.4%，并列第一；南宁涨幅为0.3%，位列第二；沈阳、合肥、 吉林涨幅均为0.2%，并列第三。另外，二手房价环比上涨的城市只有长春1个，涨幅为0.1%。 同比来看，8月份，一线城市新房价格同比下降0.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点。其中，上海上涨5.9%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降3.5%、4.3%和 1.7%。二、三线城市新房价格同比分别下降2.4%和3.7%，降幅分别收窄0.4个和0.5个百分点。 9月15日，国家统计局发布的最新数据显示，8月份，70个大中城市中，新房价格环比上涨城市有所增加。同时，多数城市房价同比降幅有所收窄，其中， 一、二、三线城市新房价格同比降幅均收窄；二、三线城市二手房价格同比降幅均收窄。 从房价涨 ...

房企的资金和库存状况有所改善。前8个月，房地产开发企业到位资金同比下降8%，降幅比去年同期收 窄12.2个百分点，比去年全年收窄9个百分点。从库存看，8月末商品房待售面积比7月末减少317万平方 米，连续6个月减少。 新京报讯(记者姜慧梓)在9月15日举行的国新办新闻发布会上，国家统计局有关负责人表示，近期，部 分城市进一步调整优化住房政策，市场交易出现改善。前8个月，部分一线和二线城市新建商品房销售 面积和销售额保持增长。 数据显示，前8个月，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降4.7%，降幅比去年同期收窄13.3个百分点，比 去年全年收窄8.2个百分点；商品房销售额下降7.3%，降幅比去年同期收窄16.3个百分点，比去年全年 收窄9.8个百分点。 房价方面，8月份，70个大中城市中多数城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅有所收窄。新建商品住宅中， 一、二、三线城市销售价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄0.2、0.4和0.5个百分点；二手住宅中，二、三线城 市销售价格同比降幅均收窄0.4个百分点。 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，从前8个月情况看，受国内 外形势变化影响，房地产市场仍有所波动，但 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][68]. Core Insights - The cement supply-side reform is progressing steadily, and expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are rising [3]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various policies being implemented to support housing transactions and mortgage rates [3]. - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand, leading to improved market fundamentals [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report notes significant policy changes aimed at improving real estate registration and facilitating housing transactions, with over 2,200 counties adopting the "house delivery equals certificate delivery" measure [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for monetary and fiscal policy space to expand, particularly in light of the easing monetary policies in Europe and the U.S. [3]. - It mentions that the real estate market is entering a bottoming phase after a decline in sales area for over three years, increasing sensitivity to policy easing [3]. Recent High-Frequency Data - As of September 12, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 341.7 CNY/ton, showing a 0.3% decrease from the previous week and a 9.6% decrease year-on-year [4][14]. - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1164.3 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.7% increase from the previous week but a 6.5% decrease year-on-year [20][23]. Sector Review - The construction materials index increased by 2.45%, outperforming the broader market indices, with sub-sectors like refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing showing notable gains [5][55]. - The report identifies key stocks to watch, including high-quality companies benefiting from inventory upgrades and those with strong fundamentals expected to recover [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: high-quality companies benefiting from inventory upgrades, undervalued stocks with long-term growth potential, and leading cyclical construction material companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a decline in sales, indicating that recovery will require time and continued efforts to stabilize the market [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to August, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [2]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 57,304 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, with residential sales also declining by 4.7% [2][4]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 55,015 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.3% [2][4]. Group 2: Positive Trends - Despite the overall decline, the year-on-year decrease in sales and housing prices is narrowing, indicating some recovery in the market [2][4]. - The decline in new commercial housing sales area has narrowed by 13.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and by 8.2 percentage points compared to the entire previous year [4]. - In August, the majority of cities saw a reduction in the year-on-year decline of new residential prices, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing improvements [4]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - Various regions and departments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market and promote housing demand [4]. - The funding situation for real estate companies has improved, with a year-on-year decrease in funds received by developers narrowing to 8% [4]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has decreased for six consecutive months, with a reduction of 3.17 million square meters from July to August [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Shenzhen's housing market are expected to provide significant support for the local real estate sector, leading to potential price stabilization and increased transaction volumes [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Chinese property stocks experienced a notable increase, with major companies such as China Overseas Land & Investment (03377) rising by 13.07% to HKD 0.173, Country Garden (02007) up 4.84% to HKD 0.65, China Jinmao (00817) increasing by 3.27% to HKD 1.58, and Sunac China (01918) gaining 2.91% to HKD 1.77 [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - On September 5, Shenzhen implemented new housing policies that significantly relaxed restrictions on home purchases and adjusted housing credit policies, with a particular focus on non-core areas [1] - CITIC Securities noted that the new policies in Shenzhen are more aggressive compared to the recent measures introduced in Beijing and Shanghai, suggesting a stronger potential impact on the market [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to Open Source Securities, the overall real estate market in China has been moving towards stabilization this year, with expectations of slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process [1] - The combination of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is anticipated to accelerate the improvement of existing housing supply and demand relationships, further aiding the stabilization process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Shenzhen's housing market are expected to provide significant support for the local real estate sector, leading to potential price stabilization and increased market activity [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese property stocks saw notable gains, with major companies like China Oceanwide Holdings (up 13.07%), Country Garden (up 4.84%), China Jinmao (up 3.27%), and Sunac China (up 2.91%) experiencing significant increases in their stock prices [1] - The new housing policy in Shenzhen is more aggressive in relaxing purchase restrictions compared to recent policies in Beijing and Shanghai, indicating a stronger potential impact on market dynamics [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - The adjustments to housing purchase and credit policies in Shenzhen include a significant relaxation of restrictions in non-core areas and the removal of differentiated mortgage rates for first and second homes [1] - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that the new policy is likely to support both transaction volume and pricing in the Shenzhen housing market, drawing parallels to the positive market responses observed in Beijing and Shanghai following their policy changes [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to Open Source Securities, the overall direction of China's real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with expectations of slight price fluctuations amid ongoing policy support [1] - The combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies is anticipated to accelerate the progress of existing housing supply and demand improvements, further aiding the stabilization process [1]