Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate stocks have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in share prices for several companies, despite ongoing challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, Greentown China (03900) rose by 8.36% to HKD 8.94, R&F Properties (02777) increased by 5.66% to HKD 0.56, New World Development (01030) gained 4.04% to HKD 2.32, and Shimao Group (00813) climbed 3.85% to HKD 0.27 [1] - According to CRIC, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of CNY 253 billion in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.9% [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - Cumulatively, the top 100 real estate companies reported a sales turnover of CNY 25,766.6 billion, which represents a year-on-year decline of 16%, with the rate of decline widening by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that the large number of second-hand homes on the market may continue to suppress market sentiment, exerting pressure on real estate sales and prices for the remainder of the year [1] - CITIC Securities reports that the supply and demand situation in the real estate market has improved, indicating that adjustments have been sufficient, and forecasts a potential stabilization in the market in 2026 [1] - CITIC Securities also believes that 2026 could be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms possibly reaching a long-term profitability bottom [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a recovery in the Chinese real estate sector, with notable stock price increases for several companies, including Greentown China, R&F Properties, New World Development, and Shimao Group [1] - According to CRIC, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 253 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.9% [1] - Cumulative performance shows that the top 100 real estate companies recorded a total sales turnover of 25,766.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 16%, with the decline rate widening by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months of the year [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley suggests that the large number of second-hand homes on the market may continue to suppress market sentiment, exerting pressure on real estate sales and prices for the remainder of the year [1] - CITIC Securities reports an improvement in the supply and demand situation in the real estate market, indicating that adjustments have been sufficient, and forecasts a potential stabilization in the market by 2026 [1] - CITIC Securities believes that 2026 could be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some firms potentially reaching the bottom of their profit cycles, particularly those with good city layouts and valuable investment properties [1]

行业走势图 房地产 2025 年 11 月 09 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《去库存止跌回稳仍需加力，"好房 子"形成代差扩张需求—房地产行业 2026 年度投资策略》-2025.11.3 《新房成交面积环比增长，促进房地 产市场持续健康发展—行业周报》 -2025.11.2 《二手房成交面积环比增长，推动房 地产高质量发展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.10.26 新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，福州发布预售新政 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，福州发布预售新政 本周我们跟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market's supply and demand situation has improved, and adjustments have been sufficient, indicating a potential stabilization in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - It is anticipated that 2026 will be a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets, with some companies possibly reaching the bottom of their profit cycle [1] - Companies that are the first to recover are likely those with well-positioned assets in good cities, operational investment properties, or financial assets with appreciation potential [1]

Group 1 - The real estate ETF (512200) has seen a 0.56% increase, with a trading volume of 39.944 million yuan as of November 5, 2025 [1] - The index it tracks, the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, also rose by 0.56%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Yingxin Development (up 9.33%) and Hainan Airport (up 6.45%) [1] - Since the beginning of the year, the real estate ETF has grown by 1.098 billion shares, indicating a strong interest in the sector [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, the real estate market is in the early "stabilization" phase, with a projected slight narrowing of the total housing sales decline to -5.0% in 2026 [2] - Huatai Securities suggests that the market is bottoming out, supported by reduced new home supply and marginal improvements in purchasing power, with a focus on policy adjustments to enhance buyer sentiment [2] - The industry is expected to show a "dumbbell" differentiation trend, with structural stabilization signals emerging, particularly in "good housing" companies and commercial real estate opportunities [2] Group 3 - The real estate ETF (512200) closely tracks the CSI All Share Real Estate Index, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors by categorizing the index into various industry levels [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Poly Developments, Vanke A, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, indicating a concentration of investment in these key players [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to be in the initial "stabilization" phase, characterized by a "softening decline" in volume and price, with various supply-demand adjustment policies facing implementation bottlenecks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the overall performance of the real estate market is influenced by expectations of stabilization, showing positive trends at the beginning of the year, but weakening in the second quarter [2] - The estimated total transaction volume for first and second-hand homes in 2025 is expected to decline by 5.0%, with new homes and second-hand homes decreasing by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [3] - The cumulative price decline for second-hand homes remains consistent, while the average price decline for new homes is affected by structural factors [2][3] Group 2: Policy and Structural Adjustments - To accelerate the transition from "softening decline" to "stabilization," there are still bottlenecks in the implementation of various supply-demand adjustment policies, such as difficulties in reducing effective inventory through land storage and slow progress in urban village renovations [2] - The company emphasizes the need for the policy side to focus on preemptive measures to control derivative risks, including credit risks of real estate companies and pressures from mortgage defaults [2] Group 3: Future Projections - In a neutral scenario, the company anticipates that the decline in total housing sales will slightly narrow in 2026, with real estate investment potentially stabilizing [3] - If policies exceed expectations, it could lead to a rebound in housing prices, marking a transition to the second phase of stabilization; conversely, if derivative risks escalate, it may prolong the stabilization process [3]

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《二手房成交面积环比增长，推动房 地产高质量发展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.10.26 《"金九"销售成色不足，单月竣工面 积同比降幅转正—行业点评报告》 -2025.10.20 《新房价格环比降幅扩大，二手房价 环 比 降 幅 持 平 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.10.20 新房成交面积环比增长，促进房地产市场持续健康发 展 房地产 行 业 研 2025 年 11 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积环比增长，促进房地产市场持续健康发展 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shown signs of recovery since September, with second-hand housing transactions increasing year-on-year and month-on-month, while the new housing market exhibits a mixed performance. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have adjusted their housing policies, creating positive expectations and stimulating potential demand [1][2]. Policy Adjustments - Since August, major cities have optimized their purchase restrictions to boost the market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. For instance, Beijing allows eligible families to purchase unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, while Shanghai and Shenzhen have also relaxed their purchase limits [2]. - Over 200 provinces and cities have introduced more than 510 policies to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal, demand activation, and supply optimization [1][3]. Market Activity - In September, key cities experienced increased market activity, with Beijing's second-hand housing transactions rising by 17.7% year-on-year and 17.2% month-on-month, reaching a six-month high. Shanghai and Shenzhen also reported significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions [4]. - However, in October, transaction volumes in key cities declined compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential cooling off after the initial recovery [4]. Consumer Behavior - The new policies have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with an increase in demand for higher-quality and higher-priced properties. For example, the average price of new homes in Shenzhen rose by 29% following the policy adjustments [6]. - Promotional activities by developers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival have also contributed to maintaining interest in quality projects in core cities [7]. Financial Support Measures - Various regions have enhanced financial support for homebuyers, including increasing the loan limits for public housing funds and offering substantial subsidies for families with multiple children [8]. - Developers are actively promoting their properties with discounts and incentives, aiming to attract buyers during the peak sales season [8][9]. Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that policies will continue to focus on stabilizing expectations, activating demand, and optimizing supply in the fourth quarter. There is potential for further policy adjustments, such as lowering down payment ratios and enhancing loan conditions [3][5]. - The market is expected to benefit from ongoing support measures, including the acceleration of affordable housing projects and urban village renovations, which could inject new momentum into the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is approaching stabilization, with expectations for a rebound in the first half of next year based on current adjustment trends [1][34]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Transaction Proportion - Since 2022, the transaction area for new and second-hand residential properties has stabilized around 1.5 billion square meters, with second-hand homes increasingly replacing new homes [2][34]. - The average annual increase in the national second-hand housing transaction proportion is projected to be around 8-10 percentage points from 2022 to 2024, with signs of stabilization expected by 2025 [2][34]. - In 2023, the second-hand housing transaction proportion in 18 sample cities reached 57.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a potential approach to the stable range of 60-63% [11][34]. Group 2: Rental Yield and Price Stability - The rental yield is a key factor in determining property value, with a reasonable rental yield expected to be around 2.5%-2.6%, close to the public housing loan interest rate [15][19]. - As of September 2025, the national rental yield across 100 cities was 2.37%, indicating a gap of 10-20 basis points from the reasonable level [23][34]. - The rental price index has shown a declining trend, with an average monthly drop of 0.26% over the past six months, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market [28][34]. Group 3: Price-to-Income Ratio - The price-to-income ratio in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen is significantly higher than in cities like New York and Tokyo, indicating a potential overvaluation [30][31]. - Adjusted calculations show that the price-to-income ratios for these cities are now more reasonable, with Beijing at 12.3 and Shanghai at 9.6, reflecting a significant decrease from previous years [31][34]. - The overall price-to-income ratio has returned to levels seen in 2016, while disposable income has increased by nearly 70% during the same period, suggesting a correction in the housing market [31][34]. Group 4: Market Stabilization Timeline - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, with the second-hand housing price still in a downward trend [34][36]. - The sequence of stabilization is anticipated to be new good houses first, followed by old small houses, improvement houses, and finally old existing houses [38][39]. - The rental yield of 2.5% serves as a benchmark for the overall real estate market stabilization, with variations expected across different city tiers [40][34].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, based on indicators such as second-hand housing transaction ratios, rental yield rates, and housing price-to-income ratios [2][34]. Group 1: Second-hand Housing Transaction Ratio - Since 2022, the transaction area for new and second-hand residential properties has stabilized around 1.5 billion square meters, with second-hand housing increasingly replacing new housing [5]. - The average annual increase in the second-hand housing transaction ratio is projected to be 8-10 percentage points from 2022 to 2024, with expectations for it to reach around 50% by 2025 [5][12]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the second-hand housing transaction ratio in 18 sample cities reached 57.2%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [12][34]. Group 2: Rental Yield Rate - The rental yield rate is a key indicator of the stability of second-hand housing prices, with a current national average of 2.37%, which is still 10-20 basis points below the reasonable level of around 2.5% [22][23]. - A rental yield rate that approaches the public housing loan interest rate of approximately 2.5%-2.6% is considered reasonable, indicating a balance between renting and buying [17][20]. - If rental prices stabilize, the rental yield rate is expected to reach a reasonable level by the second quarter of next year, potentially leading to a stabilization in housing prices [22][27]. Group 3: Housing Price-to-Income Ratio - The housing price-to-income ratio in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai is reported at 12.3 and 9.6, respectively, indicating a return to a relatively reasonable range [28][30]. - The overall housing price has returned to levels seen in 2016, while disposable income has increased by nearly 70% during the same period, contributing to a more favorable housing price-to-income ratio [30][34]. - The current housing price-to-income ratios suggest that the market has significantly digested previous bubbles, with major cities showing ratios below 15 [28][30]. Group 4: Market Stabilization Timeline - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize in the first half of next year, with the second-hand housing transaction ratio and rental yield rate approaching reasonable levels [34][37]. - The sequence of stabilization is expected to be new good houses, old small houses, improvement houses, and finally old existing houses, with new good houses stabilizing first due to their strong product appeal [39][41]. - The overall stabilization of the real estate market will depend on macroeconomic conditions and social expectations, alongside the internal dynamics of the real estate market [34][37].