Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a strong - biased oscillation, and the intraday view is a weak - biased oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price oscillates upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term is rising, medium - term is strong - biased oscillation, intraday is weak - biased oscillation. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, with the core logic of persistent optimistic sentiment and rising steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price rises strongly. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills weakens, the rebar output declines continuously, and the supply contracts. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good and some varieties start to switch production, so the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand also weakens. The high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand is likely to put pressure on the steel price [3]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on the stock index futures is that they are expected to rise, with a short - term outlook of oscillating strongly and a medium - term outlook of rising. The main driving force is the policy - driven positive expectations, but the upward momentum may slow down later due to potential capital rotation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties IF, IH, IC, and IM have an intraday view of oscillating strongly, a medium - term view of rising, and an overall reference view of rising. The main rebound momentum comes from policy - driven positive expectations. The trading volume of the stock market is at a high level, indicating positive investor risk preference. However, since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and potential capital rotation may slow down the upward momentum of the stock index. In the short - term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is also rising. The main driving forces for the stock index rebound are loose liquidity and policy - favorable expectations. The anti - involution policy is beneficial to relevant industries, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the risk appetite of the technology sector. In the short term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the policy - end favorable expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day. The central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open - market operation recently has led to loose market liquidity, which supports the recovery of market risk appetite [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Baocheng Futures Rebar Morning Report (July 21, 2025) [1] - Author: Tu Weihua [5] - Author's position: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [5] - Author's qualification: F3060359 (futures practice certificate), Z0011688 (investment consulting certificate) [5] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 3: Core Views - For Rebar 2510, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating strongly, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market, and steel prices will oscillate upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are relatively under pressure. However, with low inventory and minor real - world contradictions, combined with the fermentation of policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials providing cost support, steel prices are expected to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Rebar 2510, short - term: rise; medium - term: oscillating strongly; intraday: oscillating weakly. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices will oscillate upwards. The calculation of price changes and the definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment is strong, and weekend steel spot prices have risen significantly. The supply of rebar has contracted to a low level as construction steel mills' production has weakened, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of production cuts is not strong. Rebar demand continues the seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators performing poorly and at a low level in recent years. The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure, but low inventory means minor real - world contradictions. Policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials provide cost support, so steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with a mid - term view of upward movement. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, strong liquidity support, and the easing of external risks. However, the upward momentum of the previous high - performing sectors has weakened, and without incremental policies in the short term, the stock index may enter a consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, and the mid - term view is upward, with a reference view of range - bound. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1560.2 billion yuan, an increase of 98.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The main logic for the stock index rebound is the expectation of policy support in the second half of the year due to the insufficient effective domestic demand in the first half. The central bank's net injection of liquidity and the easing of external risks also support the market. However, the upward momentum of the previous high - performing sectors has weakened, and without incremental policies in the short term, the stock index may enter a consolidation phase [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.80%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. The supply - demand of rebar remained weak, and the fundamentals continued the seasonal weakness. However, the low inventory and policy expectations, along with strong raw materials, provided cost support. It was expected that the rebar price would continue to fluctuate and stabilize [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate rose with a daily increase of 1.23%, and both volume and positions expanded. The supply of hot - rolled coil decreased while the demand was resilient. The fundamentals improved, inventory decreased again, and policy expectations and strong raw materials supported the price. It was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.81%, and both volume and positions expanded. In the current supply - demand weak situation, the fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Policy expectations and optimism supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation was high, and a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the output of major machinery and equipment in China showed different performances. The output of excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools increased significantly, with year - on - year growth of 12.4%, 13.5%, and 10.4% respectively. The output of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 15.8% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the output of four major household appliances in China was released. The output of washing machines increased by 10.3% year - on - year. The output of air conditioners increased by 5.5% year - on - year, the output of refrigerators remained flat year - on - year, and the output of color TVs decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, China's rebar output was 98.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The output of medium - thick wide steel strips increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the output of wire rods increased by 0.6% year - on - year [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The report provided a black metal spot quotation table, including prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The report presented a table of the main contract futures prices, including the closing price, increase or decrease, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and position difference of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report included charts of steel and iron ore inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, profit - making steel mills' proportion, 87 independent electric furnace start - up rate, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand remained weak. The weekly output decreased by 7.60 tons week - on - week, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons week - on - week. Due to low inventory, policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, the price was expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize [36]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The supply decreased by 2.00 tons week - on - week, and the demand was resilient with an increase of 1.28 tons week - on - week. The fundamentals improved, and the price was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand weakened. The terminal consumption of ore decreased, and the supply also contracted. Policy expectations supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [38].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗延续回落，但仍处于相对高位，且 钢厂盈利状况良好，需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑。同时，港口到货大幅回升，但矿商发运则是延续 偏弱态势，按船期推算后续到货仍将减量，海外矿石供应回落，而内矿生产同样趋弱，供应迎来收缩。 目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面弱稳运行，产业矛盾有限，但政策利好预期发酵，乐观情绪未 退，支撑矿价高位偏强运行，但估值已升至高位，需谨防交易逻辑切换至产业端。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.16%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are low inventory and cost support from strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil was running at a high level with a daily increase of 0.09%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals are weakly stable with a slight increase in inventory. However, the expected policy benefits are fermenting, and combined with strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation. Be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.26%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the expected policy benefits have improved market sentiment, driving the iron ore price back to a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth, and the growth rates were rising [6]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, net cash injection was 363.3 billion yuan. The balance of local and foreign currency loans at the end of June was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [7]. - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 470,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. In June, China imported 105.948 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 7.817 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%; from January to June, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,190, and 3,292 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 3 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300, 3,200, and 3,307 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 2 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,110 with an increase of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 120 with an increase of 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,070 with a decrease of 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 749 with a decrease of 1, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 702 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 7.75 with an increase of 0.37, and from Brazil was 19.33 with an increase of 0.92. The SGX swap (current month) was 97.80 with an increase of 0.20, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 98.30 with a decrease of 0.25 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,138, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The highest price was 3,143, the lowest price was 3,122, the trading volume was 1,164,609 with a decrease of 489,936, and the open interest was 2,122,341 with a decrease of 78,184 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,276, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The highest price was 3,281, the lowest price was 3,256, the trading volume was 454,659 with a decrease of 155,211, and the open interest was 1,580,291 with a decrease of 19,457 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 766.5, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The highest price was 769.5, the lowest price was 763.0, the trading volume was 239,244 with a decrease of 121,405, and the open interest was 664,821 with an increase of 2,959 [11]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of rebar decreased by 44,200 tons week - on - week due to steel mill conversion, but the supply is still at a relatively high level this year, and the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. The demand for rebar is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 33,700 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency daily trading volume significantly shrinking. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50,000 tons week - on - week due to steel mill adjustment, but the supply is still at a high level this year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for hot - rolled coil is less resilient, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 18,600 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency trading volume also shrinking. The price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation, but be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand have weakened. The consumption of iron ore by steel mills has continued to decline, and the arrival of ore at ports has increased significantly week - on - week, but the shipment of miners has continued to decline. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [38].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪偏暖，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需双弱局面未变，淡季钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下降，但钢厂盈利状况较好， 需求减量空间有限。同时，港口到货虽迎来回升，但财年末冲量结束后矿商发运大幅减量，海外矿石 供应迎来收缩，相应的内矿生产趋弱，供应同样走弱。目前来看，供需双弱局面下矿石基本面并无实 质性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The continued upward trend of the stock index requires policy support, and the market risk preference is positive in the near term [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is rising, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is also oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and slightly corrected yesterday. The total stock market turnover was 1527.4 billion yuan, an increase of 52.8 billion yuan from the previous day, and more than 3300 stocks fell. The inflation data in June showed weak domestic demand. The rebound of the stock index since late June was driven by policy expectations. The domestic inflation is weak, and the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, while external demand may be affected by tariffs. Policy support is needed, and the market is waiting for the policy implementation after the Politburo meeting in July. So the stock index will oscillate strongly in the short term [4].