反观我国，2025年中央经济工作会议指出，"经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现"。在2025年实现"5.0% 左右"的GDP增速预期目标的情况下，2026年的GDP增速预期目标大概率也设置为"5.0%左右"。此外， 从宏观经济的运行看，2026年下半年我国PPI当月同比大概率能够转正，这就预示2026年下半年我国宏 观经济大概率企稳回升。综上，2026年中美两国宏观经济基本面发生了相对有利于我国的转变，对人民 币汇率形成实质性支撑。 【环球网财经综合报道】汇率在投资生活中具有十分重要的地位。资本在进行全球配置时，首要考量因 素是汇率走势，毕竟投资面临的第一个问题是资金要投向哪个国家。通常情况下，汇率升值的国家，其 宏观经济基本面处于向好趋势之中，相应地，其利率处于从底部向上升的进程中，此外，其资产价格也 处于上行过程中，也就是说，投资于汇率升值的国家的资产，可享受汇率升值、利率上行、实体投资收 益率上升以及金融资产收益率上升的四重利好。综上，准确研判全球主要汇率走势，有利于大幅提高投 资收益率。 然而，国际财经界长期以来存在的一个共识是，"汇率是不可预测的"，正如美联储前主席格林斯潘曾经 在2004年3月的纽约经 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 首席经济学家：郑后成 执业证书编号：S0990521090001 电话：0755-83008511 邮箱：houchengzheng@163.com 视角下的 2025 年中央经济工作会议八项 重点任务（20251216） 2.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国将继续 在国际经贸斗争中"占优"，"绿色"主 题排序"跨越式"上升（20251212） 3.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年 A 股大盘 或面临支撑，年内高点大概率位于下半年 （20251205） 4.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国 CPI 同比大概率高于 2025 年（20251124） 5.英大证券宏观评论：2026 年我国外汇储 备大概率在3.3万亿美元基础上稳步上行 （20251110） 6.英大证券宏观评论：高水平科技引领发 展新质生产力，明后两年我国 GDP 增速 预期目标或均为"5.0%左右"（20251030） 7.英大证券宏观评论："适时加力"落在 4 季度概率大于 3 季度，中期我国资本市 场还将保持"回稳向好"势头（20250807） 8.英大证券宏观评论："猪油"共振向下 是 5 月 CPI ...

新华财经北京11月19日电新华财经19日获悉，财政部18日在卢森堡成功发行了40亿欧元主权债券。其 中，4年期20亿欧元，发行利率为2.401%；7年期20亿欧元，发行利率为2.702%。这是我国首次在卢森 堡发行欧元主权债券，受到市场热烈欢迎，国际投资者认购踊跃，总认购金额1001亿欧元，是发行金额 的25倍。其中，7年期认购倍数26.5倍。 据了解，此次欧元主权债券投资者类型丰富，地域分布广泛。欧洲、亚洲、中东、美国离岸投资者分别 占比51%、35%、8%、6%，主权类、基金资管、银行和保险、交易商等类型投资者分别占比26%、 39%、32%、3%。此次发行的债券全部托管在香港金管局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU），随后将在 香港联合交易所和卢森堡证券交易所上市。 德意志银行中国债务资本市场主管方中睿（Samuel Fischer）对新华财经表示，"此次发行适逢第四次中 德高级别财金对话在北京成功举行，我们非常荣幸能再次协助财政部完成这一里程碑式的发行，再次见 证全球投资者对中国主权信用和宏观经济基本面的高度信任，进一步提升了中国资产在全球资本市场的 影响力与配置权重。此次成功发行不仅现固了中国主权债券在国 ...

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3,338.7 billion by the end of September, increasing by $16.5 billion or 0.5% from August, marking the 22nd consecutive month above $3.2 trillion and demonstrating a stable performance above $3.3 trillion [2][4] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The growth in foreign reserves in September was influenced by global monetary policy adjustments and asset price fluctuations, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [4] - The U.S. dollar index slightly decreased by 0.03% in September, contrasting with previous significant depreciation, which reduced the impact of currency conversion effects on reserve growth [4] - The sustained high level of foreign reserves reflects China's strong external payment capacity and resilience against external shocks, providing a buffer for macroeconomic stability [4] Group 2: Gold Reserves - The central bank has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, viewing gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation amid rising geopolitical risks [6] - The strategy of increasing gold reserves aims to diversify risks associated with a high proportion of dollar assets and to prepare for potential long-term risks from loose global monetary policies [6] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The stability of foreign reserves is supported by a solid macroeconomic foundation, with a focus on trade and financial market openness [6][7] - The international trade environment has become less uncertain, and China's strategy of diversifying trade partners and optimizing export structures has strengthened the inflow of foreign exchange [7] - The attractiveness of China's financial markets has increased due to the gradual opening up of these markets, enhancing the long-term confidence of foreign investors in Chinese assets [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is upward. Policy - side favorable expectations provide strong support, and the external risk factors are temporarily alleviated, with the stock market risk preference continuously rising [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is volatile and strong, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that the favorable policy - side expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is volatile and strong, and the medium - term view is upward. Last Friday, the stock indexes showed a volatile upward trend, with obvious increases in IC and IM. The stock market trading volume has been above 2 trillion yuan for many days, indicating an optimistic market sentiment. Policy - side favorable expectations support the stock index, and policies such as anti - involution and consumption promotion are conducive to the recovery of the price index and corporate profits. The balance of margin trading funds has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and patient capital such as social security and insurance is continuously entering the market, boosting long - term confidence [5]

Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The domestic equity market showed strong performance last week, with major indices rising over 3% and daily trading volume increasing to around 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, surpassing the 3400-point mark, which is a significant resistance level [1] - Financial, computer, and military industries performed well, while the oil and petrochemical sectors saw declines due to falling oil prices [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Observations - Despite significant tariff impacts and a slowdown in the domestic real estate market since April, the overall macroeconomic environment remains stable, supported by a strong industrial chain and manufacturing capabilities [1] - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has also contributed positively to the macroeconomic performance [1] Group 3: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market exhibited a fluctuating pattern last week, influenced by seasonal factors and the stock-bond relationship [2] - The strong performance of the stock market initially suppressed bond market performance, but increased liquidity from the central bank and insurance demand supported the bond market [2] - By the end of the week, the yields on 10-year government bonds and 30-year government bonds rose by 1 basis point, reaching 1.65% and 1.85% respectively [2]

Global Macro Market - The market continues to speculate on the "East Rising, West Declining" narrative; US stock valuations are high, and the uncertainty brought by Trump's policies is expected to prevent US stocks from reaching new highs in the first half of 2025 [1] - Although the fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not yet reversed, the Chinese stock market is experiencing bullish momentum due to a series of policy enhancements and sustained expectation guidance, with Hong Kong stocks leading [1] - The foreign exchange market's volatility continues to reflect the pricing adjustments due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on country-specific interest rate differentials and marginal developments in relative liquidity [1] Chinese Futures Market - In financial products, multiple stock indices and short positions on government bonds show high macro certainty, with strong market price behavior alignment; currently, small-cap indices remain relatively strong, while large-cap indices have recently shown strong upward breakout signs, indicating a potential style switch [2] - In terms of commodities, particularly industrial products, excluding those affected by supply chain disruptions, the demand side continues to price according to macroeconomic fundamentals, reflected in the market where industrial categories (energy, chemicals, ferrous metals, etc.) show significant overall weakness [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation is seen as a revaluation phase, with future focus shifting towards earnings growth [1][15]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. macroeconomic data shows signs of significant slowdown, indicating a potential continued correction in the S&P 500, which is still near historical highs [1][4]. - The employment data recently released was significantly below market expectations, suggesting a further slowdown in the U.S. economy [4][5]. - The U.S. economy is primarily driven by technology investments, with manufacturing contributing only about 10-12% to the economy, a model that China is expected to adopt soon [4][5]. - The global market has seen peaks in 2007 and 2021, with the U.S. market's peak occurring later than other global markets due to the rise of major tech companies [4][5]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese market has outperformed globally, while the U.S. market has lagged significantly [8][10]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has risen over 30% this year, with substantial capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks [9][10]. - The market sentiment in Hong Kong is currently high, but some stocks have not yet surpassed their previous highs, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [15][19]. Artificial Intelligence Sector - China has emerged as a leading player in the AI model competition, but the profitability of AI investments remains uncertain [18][27]. - Major companies like Nvidia and Microsoft have faced challenges, indicating that the market may have overestimated AI chip demand [20][21][22]. - The impact of AI on economic growth is still debated, with historical trends showing that technological revolutions often lead to temporary increases in productivity followed by stabilization [24][25]. Gold Investment - The investment logic surrounding gold has fundamentally changed, with gold now viewed as a hedge against risks associated with the U.S. dollar, inflation, and geopolitical tensions [34][37]. - The significant increase in U.S. dollar supply over recent years has led to inflationary pressures, reinforcing gold's role as a protective asset [35][36]. - Gold is now considered a long-term holding rather than a speculative asset, with expectations of further price increases beyond current highs [39][40].