Equity Research 14 October 2025 | 1:34PM CST China Automobiles: Expert call on Golden Week Pulse Check - 30%-40% wow store traffi c improvement, yet 15% yoy order decline On Oct 13, we hosted an expert call with Mr. Sun (Founder of Car Fans channel) to discuss the latest auto and NEV market demand trends during this Golden Week holiday. Key takeaways: (1) The expert observed 30%-40% store traffic growth wow, yet -15% yoy order decline from major NEV brands during this Golden Week Holiday period, and expects ...

Core Insights - In September, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.241 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11% [1][5] - Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 17.01 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1][5] - The growth rate of retail sales has shown a pattern of "low at the beginning, high in the middle, and flat at the end" throughout the year, with a notable slowdown in growth from July to September [1][5] Retail Market Performance - In September, the wholesale volume of passenger cars reached 2.8 million units, setting a new historical high for the month, with a year-on-year increase of 12% [8][30] - The cumulative wholesale volume from January to September was 20.79 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [8][30] - The retail sales growth rate in September was significantly lower than the wholesale growth rate, indicating a divergence in market dynamics [28][30] Production Trends - Passenger car production in September reached 2.84 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on-month increase of 16% [12][30] - Cumulatively, production for the year reached 20.73 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [12][30] Inventory Dynamics - In September, overall inventory for passenger cars increased by 70,000 units, contrasting with a decrease of 120,000 units in the same month last year [14][30] - The industry experienced a total inventory reduction of 220,000 units from January to September this year, compared to a reduction of 900,000 units in the same period last year [14][30] Promotional Activities - The promotional intensity for new energy vehicles increased to 10.2% in September, reflecting a slight rise compared to previous months [17][25] - Traditional fuel vehicles maintained a promotional level of 23.9%, showing stability over the past ten months [19][25] - Luxury vehicle promotions reached 27.7%, indicating a growing competitive landscape in the high-end market [21][25] Market Segmentation - In September, retail sales of self-owned brands reached 1.5 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 13% [29][30] - The market share of self-owned brands in domestic retail reached 66.9%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [29][30] - The retail performance of mainstream joint venture brands declined by 6% year-on-year, while the market share of German brands decreased by 2.3 percentage points [30][30] New Energy Vehicle Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in domestic retail reached 57.8% in September, supported by favorable policies and market dynamics [34][30] - The wholesale penetration rate for new energy vehicles was 53.5%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points compared to September 2024 [34][30]

Core Insights - In September, China's passenger car production, retail, and export volumes reached historical highs for the month, with retail sales at 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles rose to 57.8%, up 5 percentage points from the same period last year, indicating stable growth supported by policies such as tax exemptions [2][4] Group 1: Market Performance - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in September increased by 15.5% year-on-year to 1.296 million units, maintaining a penetration rate above 50% for the seventh consecutive month since March [2] - The sales of pure electric passenger vehicles reached 826,000 units in September, showing a year-on-year growth of 28.5% and a month-on-month increase of 19.8% [5] - The overall passenger car market in the first nine months of the year saw cumulative retail sales of 17.005 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [7] Group 2: Segment Analysis - The market share of pure electric vehicles has significantly increased, while the growth rates of plug-in hybrid and range-extended vehicles have slowed down, indicating a shift in consumer preference [4][5] - The sales distribution for September was approximately 64% for pure electric vehicles, 28% for plug-in hybrids, and 8% for range-extended vehicles [5] Group 3: Company Performance - Among the top domestic automakers, Geely, BYD, and SAIC have achieved over 70% of their sales targets for the year, with Geely's cumulative sales reaching 2.17 million units, achieving a target completion rate of 72% [8] - New energy vehicle startups have shown a clear differentiation in sales target completion rates, with companies like XPeng and Leap Motor exceeding 75% [8] - The market share of domestic brands in retail reached 64.8%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, highlighting the growth of domestic brands in both the new energy and export markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is highly competitive, with no permanent winners, as evidenced by the rapid shift in sales leadership from Tesla's Model Y to Geely's Xingyuan in the A0 electric vehicle segment [3][4]. Summary by Sections New Model Launch - Geely's Xingyuan has launched its 2026 model, maintaining a price range of 68,800 to 98,800 yuan, with a promotional price of 65,800 to 95,800 yuan. The new model features two versions with ranges of 310 km and 410 km, and includes standard configurations such as CATL battery cells and an intelligent cockpit system [3][4]. Market Trends - The A0 electric vehicle segment is experiencing rapid growth, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the A0 market rising from 68.5% last year to 71.5% in the first eight months of this year, and exceeding 74% in August [3][4]. Sales Performance - Since its launch in October last year, Geely's Xingyuan has seen a significant increase in sales, with over 46,000 units sold in August alone and nearly 240,000 units sold in the past six months, making it the best-selling vehicle across all categories [4][5]. Competitive Landscape - The influx of competitors into the A0 electric vehicle market is intensifying, with new models such as Wuling's Bingguo S and MG's MG4 entering the market, both offering competitive pricing and superior range compared to Geely's Xingyuan [4][5]. Market Dynamics - In the A0 electric vehicle segment, the key competitive factors are product cost-effectiveness rather than brand loyalty or emotional value, indicating that the market competition is far from reaching a conclusion [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is highly competitive, with no permanent winners, as evidenced by the rapid shift in sales leadership from Tesla's Model Y to Geely's Xingyuan in 2023 [1] - Geely's Xingyuan has launched its 2026 model at a price range of 68,800 to 98,800 yuan, maintaining the same pricing as the previous model while offering two versions with ranges of 310 km and 410 km [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the A0 segment has increased from 68.5% last year to 71.5% in the first eight months of this year, with August seeing a rate exceeding 74% [1] Industry Trends - The A0 pure electric vehicle segment is experiencing rapid growth, with Geely's Xingyuan achieving retail sales of over 46,000 units in August and nearly 240,000 units in the past six months, making it the best-selling vehicle across all categories [2] - Competitors are entering the A0 electric vehicle market aggressively, with models like Wuling's Bingguo S and MG's MG4 offering competitive pricing and superior range compared to Geely's Xingyuan [2] - The core competitive advantage in the A0 electric vehicle segment is product cost-performance rather than brand loyalty or emotional value, indicating a highly price-sensitive market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Taxation Administration of China jointly issued an announcement regarding the adjustment of technical requirements for new energy vehicles (NEVs) eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions, effective from January 1, 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - From January 1, 2026, NEVs listed in the directory for vehicle purchase tax exemptions must meet the new technical requirements outlined in the announcement [1]. - The minimum pure electric range for plug-in hybrid vehicles (including range-extended) has been significantly increased from 43 kilometers to 100 kilometers, representing a 132.6% increase [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Requirements - New technical requirements for plug-in hybrid vehicles are categorized based on vehicle curb weight. For vehicles under 2510 kg, fuel consumption must be less than 70% of the limit, while for those 2510 kg and above, it must be less than 75% [2]. - In terms of energy consumption, vehicles under 2510 kg must consume less than 140% of the energy limit, while those 2510 kg and above must consume less than 145% [2]. Group 3: Market Insights - In the first half of this year, pure electric vehicles held a market share of approximately 60.9%, plug-in hybrids accounted for about 29.3%, and range-extended vehicles made up around 9.8% of the domestic NEV market [2]. - The chairman of SAIC Group, Wang Xiaoqiu, projected that by 2030, the penetration rate of NEVs in China will rise to 70%, with a market development structure of 4:3:3 for hybrid, pure electric, and fuel vehicles [2]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The adjustments aim to align with the rapid advancements in NEV range and engine technology, ensuring that policies keep pace with technological developments [3]. - By raising technical standards, the policy encourages companies to increase R&D investments, phase out outdated products, and shift the industry focus from scale expansion to high-quality development, stabilizing long-term expectations for businesses [3].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Finance, and State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of technical requirements for new energy vehicles (NEVs) aims to enhance the standards for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, effective from January 1, 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new technical requirements for plug-in hybrid vehicles include a significant increase in the pure electric driving range, which must now meet a minimum of 100 kilometers, up from the previous requirement of 43 kilometers, representing a 132.6% increase [2][3]. - Vehicles listed in the directory for tax exemption must comply with the new technical standards starting January 1, 2026, allowing them to benefit from vehicle purchase tax exemptions [2]. Group 2: Market Insights - In the first half of this year, the market share of pure electric vehicles in China's NEV market was approximately 60.9%, while plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for about 29.3%, and range-extended vehicles made up around 9.8% [3]. - The chairman of SAIC Group predicts that by 2030, the penetration rate of NEVs in China will rise to 70%, establishing a market development structure of 4:3:3 among hybrid, pure electric, and fuel vehicles [3]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The adjustments are intended to align with the rapid advancements in NEV range and engine technology, ensuring that policies keep pace with technological developments [4]. - By raising technical barriers, the policy aims to encourage companies to increase R&D investments, phase out outdated products, and shift the industry focus from scale expansion to high-quality development [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the upcoming CINE2025 Solid-State Battery Exhibition and Industry Annual Conference scheduled for November 6-8, 2025, in Guangzhou, with significant participation expected from over 200 exhibitors and 20,000 professional attendees [2] Industry Overview - In the first seven months of 2025, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 8.22 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.5%, with a penetration rate of 45.0%, up by 8.6 percentage points [2] - The installed capacity of power batteries in China during the same period was 343.52 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.2% [2] Market Dynamics - A total of 48 power battery companies provided vehicle matching in the first seven months of 2025, a decrease of 3 companies compared to the previous year, primarily serving passenger vehicles [4] - The top 10 power battery companies by installed capacity included CATL, BYD, and others, with a total installed capacity of 153.46 GWh [5][6] Battery Technology Trends - The market concentration for the top 10 battery companies (CR10) was 95.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the rise of companies like Tsinghua Unigroup and others [6] - In terms of battery materials, the installed capacity for ternary batteries was 66.63 GWh (19.4% market share), down by 7.2 percentage points, while lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 276.56 GWh (80.5% market share), up by 7.2% [6] Battery Form Factor - The installed capacity for square batteries was 334.29 GWh (97.3% market share), showing a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while cylindrical batteries accounted for 7.28 GWh (2.1% market share) [8] - The announcement by BMW Group regarding the upcoming use of large cylindrical batteries is expected to boost the market share of cylindrical batteries [8]

Core Insights - Multiple new energy vehicle manufacturers reported their September delivery figures, with Leap Motor achieving a record monthly delivery of over 60,000 units for the first time [1][4] - Other brands such as Xiaopeng and NIO also set new monthly delivery records [1] Delivery Performance - Leap Motor delivered 66,657 units in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 97% and a month-on-month increase of 16.8% [2][4] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 52,916 units, with a year-on-year growth of 1% and a month-on-month growth of 18.7% [2][5] - Xiaopeng delivered 41,581 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 95% and a month-on-month increase of 10.3% [2][5] - NIO's deliveries reached 34,749 units, up 64% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month [2][9] - Li Auto delivered 33,951 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 36.8% but a month-on-month increase of 19% [2][12] Market Overview - The retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in September are expected to reach 2.15 million units, with a month-on-month growth of 6.5% and a year-on-year growth of 2% [3] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles are projected to exceed 1.25 million units, with a penetration rate anticipated to rise to 58.1%, setting a new historical high [3] Strategic Developments - Leap Motor plans to launch its new model, the Lafa5, in mainland China by Q4 2025, following its global debut at the Munich International Motor Show [5] - Xiaopeng announced a partnership with Magna in Austria for localized production, with plans to produce models like the G6 and G9 [8] - NIO's new brand, Ladao, has contributed to its delivery growth, with the Ladao L90 model achieving significant sales since its launch [12] Competitive Landscape - Leap Motor has maintained its position as the top seller among new energy vehicle manufacturers for seven consecutive months [4] - Xiaopeng's cumulative deliveries for the year reached 313,196 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 218% [5] - Li Auto's performance has declined, with a notable drop in year-on-year deliveries, while it aims to stabilize its sales in the high-end electric vehicle market [12]

Core Insights - In September, multiple new energy vehicle brands reported significant delivery numbers, with Leap Motor leading the pack with a record-breaking delivery of 66,657 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of over 97% [1][2] - The overall performance of the new energy vehicle market in September met expectations, driven by various factors including seasonal demand and promotional activities [5][6] Company Performance - **Leap Motor**: Delivered 66,657 vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of 97.4% and a cumulative delivery of 395,516 vehicles for the year, up 128.8% [2][3] - **Xpeng Motors**: Achieved a delivery of 41,581 vehicles in September, a year-on-year growth of approximately 95% and a cumulative total of 313,196 vehicles for the year, reflecting a 218% increase [2][3] - **Xiaomi Motors**: Reported over 40,000 vehicles delivered in September, with a total of over 260,000 vehicles delivered this year [2] - **NIO**: Delivered 34,749 vehicles in September, a 64% year-on-year increase, with a total of 201,221 vehicles delivered this year [2][3] - **Li Auto**: Delivered 33,951 vehicles in September, with a cumulative total of 1,431,021 vehicles since inception [3][4] - **Horizon Motors**: Reported a total delivery of 52,916 vehicles in September, with a cumulative total exceeding 950,000 vehicles [4] - **GAC Aion**: Estimated global sales of 28,000 vehicles in September, with significant progress in charging infrastructure [4] - **ZEEKR**: Achieved sales of 51,159 vehicles in September, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [4] - **Lantu Motors**: Delivered 15,224 vehicles in September, a 52% year-on-year increase, with a total of 96,992 vehicles delivered this year [5] Market Trends - The overall retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in September is estimated at around 2.15 million units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 6.5% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, with new energy vehicles accounting for approximately 1.25 million units and a penetration rate of 58.1% [5] - The new energy vehicle market is expected to enter a phase of rapid growth, supported by the launch of new models and increasing consumer interest [6]