机构：中银国际 研究员：LOU Jia/Olivia NIU/Maggie CAI Based on preliminary results, GWM's 4Q25 revenue grew 13% QoQ to RMB69.2bn, but net profit plunged 44% QoQ to RMB 1.3bn, sharply missing expectations due to seasonal bonus accruals, low sales efficiency from aggressive direct-sales set-up, and lower Russian scrap tax rebates. For 2026, the sales target of 1.8m units (1.2m domestic, 600k overseas) implies a 45%+ YoY domestic surge, driven by intensive rollouts under EC/DE platform. However, we deem the goal challengi ...

汽车 2026 年 02 月 01 日 长城汽车(601633.SH) 2025年销量创新高，渠道搭建影响盈利潜力释放 推荐（维持） 股价：20.69 元 主要数据 平安观点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 173,212 | 202,195 | 222,790 | 271,336 | 336,829 | | YOY(%) | 26.1 | 16.7 | 10.2 | 21.8 | 24.1 | | 净利润(百万元) | 7,022 | 12,692 | 9,912 | 13,294 | 16,519 | | YOY(%) | -15.1 | 80.8 | -21.9 | 34.1 | 24.3 | | 毛利率(%) | 18.7 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.9 | 20.2 | | 净利率(%) | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | | ROE(%) | 10.3 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 13.7 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Great Wall Motors has shown significant growth in sales for 2025, with a total sales volume of approximately 1.32 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.33% [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 403,700 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 25.44%, while overseas market sales were about 506,100 units, up 11.68% [1] - The Wey brand experienced the fastest sales growth among Great Wall Motors' brands, achieving sales of approximately 102,000 units in 2025, a remarkable increase of 86.29% [1] Group 2 - The Haval brand, as the main sales driver for Great Wall Motors, achieved sales of 758,600 units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.41% [1] - The Tank brand and Great Wall pickup trucks also saw sales growth, with Tank brand sales reaching 232,700 units, a slight increase of 0.74%, and Great Wall pickups achieving sales of 182,000 units, up 2.57% [1] - In contrast, the Ora brand experienced a decline in sales, with a total of 48,300 units sold, down 23.68%, although it showed signs of recovery in December 2025 with sales of 8,134 units, up 71.6% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - Great Wall Motors plans to achieve a significant sales increase in 2026, targeting a sales volume of 1.8 million units, which would represent a growth of over 35% compared to the actual sales in 2025, although this has not been officially confirmed [2] - The company has announced a new platform named "Guiyuan," which is designed to be compatible with multiple power solutions including gasoline, diesel, BEV, HEV, PHEV, and hydrogen, covering various product categories such as SUVs and MPVs [4] - Great Wall Motors has also introduced its next-generation all-power intelligent super platform, emphasizing its core self-developed achievements in intelligent cockpit (Coffee OS) and intelligent driving (Coffee Pilot), accelerating its transformation into a smart technology company [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotou Securities International maintains a target price of HKD 26 for Great Wall Motors (601633)(02333) and a "Buy" rating, highlighting the continuous enrichment of the company's new car matrix, strong performance of the Tank brand, and significant sales improvement for the Wey and Ora brands [1] Sales Performance - In December, the company achieved wholesale sales of 124,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%; cumulative sales for January to December reached 1.324 million units, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year. Among these, 39,000 units were new energy vehicles sold in December, with a total of 404,000 units sold for the year; overseas sales were 57,000 units in December, totaling 506,000 units for the year [1] - Brand-specific performance in December showed significant differentiation: - Tank: December sales of 21,000 units, with a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 3.4% and 12.1% respectively; cumulative sales for the year reached 233,000 units, up 0.7% year-on-year [2] - Haval: December sales of 67,000 units, down 20.3% year-on-year; cumulative sales for the year reached 759,000 units, up 7.4% year-on-year [2] - Wey: December sales of 13,000 units, up 46.5% year-on-year; cumulative sales for the year reached 102,000 units, up 86.3% year-on-year [2] - Pickup: December sales of 15,000 units, down 5.6% year-on-year; cumulative sales for the year reached 182,000 units, up 2.6% year-on-year [2] - Ora: December sales of 8,000 units, up 71.6% year-on-year; cumulative sales for the year reached 48,000 units, down 23.7% year-on-year [2] Future Product Strategy - A strong new car cycle is set to begin in 2026, with Great Wall Motors planning to launch at least 10 new models, including at least 4 new SUVs under the Wey brand, which is expected to significantly impact sales and profits. The company is developing a multi-power platform that covers gasoline, diesel, pure electric, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen energy, enhancing its adaptability to global markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guotou Securities International maintains a target price of HKD 26 for Great Wall Motors (02333) and a "Buy" rating, citing a continuous expansion of the new car matrix across its brands, strong performance of the Tank series, and significant sales improvements for the WEY and Ora brands [1] Sales Performance - In December, the company achieved wholesale sales of 124,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%; total sales for the year reached 1.324 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Of these, 39,000 units were new energy vehicles sold in December, totaling 404,000 units for the year; overseas sales amounted to 57,000 units, with a total of 506,000 units sold internationally for the year [1] Brand-Specific Sales Analysis - Tank: December sales were 21,000 units, with a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 3.4% and 12.1% respectively; total sales for the year reached 233,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [2] - Haval: December sales were 67,000 units, down 20.3% year-on-year and 11.3% month-on-month; total sales for the year were 759,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [2] - WEY: December sales were 13,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 46.5%; total sales for the year reached 102,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 86.3% [2] - Pickup: December sales were 15,000 units, down 5.6% year-on-year; total sales for the year were 182,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [2] - Ora: December sales were 8,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 71.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.7%; total sales for the year reached 48,000 units [2] Future Product Strategy - Great Wall Motors is set to enter a strong new car cycle in 2026, planning to launch at least 10 new models, including 4 new SUVs under the WEY brand. The company aims to enhance its product matrix with a multi-power platform that accommodates gasoline, diesel, pure electric, hybrid, and hydrogen energy vehicles, thereby improving component commonality, scale effects, and global quality and cost optimization [3]

Summary of Changan Automobile Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Changan Automobile - **Year**: 2025 - **Sales Performance**: Achieved record sales of 2.84 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.33% [2][3] Key Points Sales and Market Performance - **New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)**: Sold 403,700 units, up 25.44% year-on-year [2][3] - **Overseas Sales**: Cumulative overseas sales reached 506,100 units, a growth of 11.68% [2][3] - **December Sales**: Sold 124,000 new vehicles in December, with overseas sales exceeding 57,000 units, a 39.05% increase [3] Strategic Goals for 2026 - **Overseas Market Target**: Aim to sell 600,000 units, with plans to introduce new models like the Tank 700 and expand into Eurasian markets [2][5] - **Brand Expansion**: Focus on launching products in Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, and Australia, enhancing the Ora brand's presence [5] Domestic Market Strategy - **High-end Strategy**: Focus on the Wei brand for NEVs and Tank SUVs, targeting the market above 200,000 yuan [2][6] - **Product Line Expansion**: Plans to launch over 10 new models in 2025, including those on the D1 and EC platforms [4][6] Product Development and Technology - **D1 Platform**: Will introduce multiple hybrid and electric SUVs, enhancing service capabilities and product competitiveness [6][8] - **Smart Driving Technology**: Aiming to promote smart driving features across different market segments, including the introduction of city NOA functions in the Ora 5 model [11] Financial Outlook - **Profitability**: Expect improved profitability with the launch of new models on the D1 platform, targeting higher average selling prices and profit margins [18][19] Competitive Landscape - **Market Positioning**: Changan aims to differentiate itself through a diverse product lineup and flexible pricing strategies, particularly in the face of competition from other Chinese automakers [28] Future Plans - **New Model Launches**: Plans to introduce a variety of new models from February to March 2026, with a focus on managing inventory before new releases [29] Additional Insights - **Subsidy Policies**: The old-for-new subsidy policy is expected to positively impact sales by enhancing consumer purchasing willingness [12] - **Market Adaptation**: Changan is adapting its strategies to meet the demands of different markets, particularly in Europe, where it plans to introduce a range of vehicles including traditional, HEV, BEV, and PHEV models [26][27] Conclusion Changan Automobile is poised for significant growth in both domestic and international markets, with a strong focus on new energy vehicles, smart technology, and an expanded product lineup to enhance competitiveness and profitability in the coming years.

Industry Information - China's first batch of L3 autonomous driving models has received approval for road testing in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing, marking a significant step towards commercial application [9] - EVE Energy has achieved mass production of large cylindrical batteries, with over 60,000 units installed, showcasing high energy density and production efficiency [11] - CATL and Chuanhua Group have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to promote green transformation and intelligent upgrades in the industry [11] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined six key tasks related to the automotive industry for 2026, emphasizing domestic demand, innovation, and green transformation [12] - The report indicates that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become a significant base for new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, with a projected production of 2.85 million vehicles in 2024, including 676,000 new energy vehicles [17] Policy Information - Jilin Province has announced the cessation of subsidies for charging infrastructure construction and operation, effective January 1, 2026 [28][29] - The Guangzhou government has launched a second round of automotive consumption promotion activities, allocating an additional 300 million yuan for subsidies [33] Company Information - BYD's sales of assisted driving models exceeded 310,000 units in November, covering various models equipped with advanced driving systems [39] - NIO has announced a battery doubling plan, with over 2,600 new battery packs already invested, aiming to meet the growing demand for battery swapping [38] - Changan Automobile's subsidiary, Deep Blue Automotive, plans to raise approximately 6.122 billion yuan through a capital increase [37] - Xiaomi has opened its MiMo-V2-Flash large model, which is designed for AI applications, showcasing significant advancements in performance [40] - China FAW is accelerating the mass production of solid-state batteries, expected to debut in high-end Hongqi models by the end of 2027 [41]

Group 1 - The company has decided to revert to traditional mechanical door handle designs for all future models due to the practical shortcomings of hidden door handles, which add significant weight and pose potential safety risks in emergencies [2] - The company has identified that integrated die-casting technology does not reduce manufacturing costs in the domestic market and presents challenges in production flexibility, leading to higher overall costs and insurance premiums for vehicles using this technology [3] Group 2 - In November, the company sold 127,394 new vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.70% and a month-on-month increase of 9.07%, with 35,999 of these being new energy vehicles, which saw a 15.20% year-on-year increase [5] - From January to November, the company sold 279,530 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.41%, and 411,848 vehicles overseas, reflecting a 45.77% year-on-year growth, achieving record high sales [5] - The cumulative global sales of the company reached 14.7646 million vehicles by November 2024 [5]

New Car Launches - Hongqi HS6 PHEV launched with a price range of 178,800 to 228,800 yuan, featuring a family design style and dimensions of 4925/1970/1740mm [3][4][6] - Ora 5 launched with a price range of 99,800 to 133,800 yuan, offering five models and a limited-time trade-in subsidy of 8,000 yuan [15][16][18] - Ford Mustang Mach-E launched with a price range of 229,800 to 282,800 yuan, available in both pure electric and range-extended versions [24][25][27] Company Developments - BYD's 15 millionth new energy vehicle rolled off the production line, achieving this milestone in 17 years, with the last 5 million produced in just 13 months [65][66][70] - Honda plans to suspend or reduce production at its factories in Japan and China due to semiconductor shortages [71][72][75] - Lantu Motors and CATL signed a ten-year deepening cooperation agreement to advance battery technology [76][77] - GAC Group announced the establishment of a new business unit combining its high-end brand Haobo and mass-market brand Aion for better resource synergy [80][81] - Li Auto is establishing an AI R&D center in Silicon Valley, focusing on smart driving technology [82][85] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued new regulations limiting hidden door handles in vehicles, effective from January 1, 2027 [98][99][102] - The European Union has decided to relax its 2035 ban on internal combustion engines, allowing plug-in hybrid vehicles to continue being sold [103][105][107] - Japan plans to impose a weight-based tax on electric vehicles starting May 2028, with tax rates increasing based on vehicle weight [108][110][112]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of upcoming vehicle models set to launch in December 2025, detailing specifications, pricing, and market segments for various manufacturers [2][3]. Group 1: Upcoming Vehicle Models - SAIC Audi will launch the A5L Sportback on December 12, 2025, targeting the B NB segment with a starting MSRP of 334,900 CNY [7]. - FAW Car will introduce the Hongqi HS6 on December 16, 2025, in the C SUV segment, with prices ranging from 178,800 to 228,800 CNY [15]. - Great Wall Motors will release the Ora 5 on December 16, 2025, in the A SUV segment, with an MSRP between 99,800 and 133,800 CNY [23]. - NIO will launch the ELS and ET5T on December 16, 2025, with the ET5T priced at 316,000 CNY and featuring a range of 710 km [39][31]. - Beam Car will introduce the MINI Electric on December 17, 2025, with prices from 209,800 to 239,800 CNY [47]. - JMC Ford will launch the Smart Mustang on December 19, 2025, with a price range of 229,800 to 282,800 CNY [71]. Group 2: Technical Specifications - The A5L Sportback features a 2.0T engine with a power output of 150 kW and torque of 340 N·m, with dimensions of 4,903 mm in length, 1,883 mm in width, and 1,427 mm in height [7]. - The Hongqi HS6 offers a hybrid engine option with a power output of 110 kW and torque of 225 N·m, alongside an electric motor with 168 kW and torque of 340 N·m [15]. - The Ora 5 has a pure electric powertrain with a maximum power of 150 kW and torque of 260 N·m, with dimensions of 4,471 mm in length, 1,833 mm in width, and 1,641 mm in height [23]. - The ET5 features a pure electric engine with a power output of 360 kW and torque of 700 N·m, with a length of 4,790 mm, width of 1,960 mm, and height of 1,499 mm [31]. - The MINI Electric has a power output of 135 kW and torque of 290 N·m, with dimensions of 3,858 mm in length, 1,756 mm in width, and 1,458 mm in height [47]. - The Smart Mustang offers a 1.5T range-extended engine with a power output of 110 kW and torque of 240 N·m, alongside a pure electric option with a power output of 332 kW and torque of 575 N·m [71].