Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to weak US crude oil demand and concerns about global supply surplus, international oil prices experienced continuous weak and volatile adjustments in Q3. However, the Fed's 0.25% interest rate cut in September, Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities, and the EU's plan to increase sanctions on Russia limit the further decline of international oil prices. Technically, US WTI crude oil prices may rebound with volatility [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - International oil prices were in a weak and volatile adjustment in Q3 due to weak US demand and concerns about supply surplus. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 decided that producers will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day joint production cut in October. The market was caught off - guard by the plan to resume the 1.65 million barrels per day joint production cut in October after the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut, which had a negative impact on the oil market. After September, the peak oil demand season ended and refinery maintenance increased, further suppressing oil prices [1][5]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Analysis Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand - OPEC maintains its 2025 oil demand forecast and slightly raises the 2026 forecast. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The IEA reports that global oil inventories are surging at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap is widening as supply expands and demand growth slows. The IEA raises the daily supply increments of OPEC and its allies for this year and next by 370,000 barrels and 520,000 barrels respectively [7]. - The OPEC+ decision on September 7 has a negative impact on the oil market, and future production plans are uncertain. As of the week ending September 19, US crude oil daily production was 13.501 million barrels, up 19,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of US online drilling oil wells reached 424 as of the week ending September 26, the highest since July [10][12]. - US refinery operating rates decreased slightly, but crude oil processing volume increased. As of the week ending September 19, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased moderately, and gasoline and distillate inventories also declined. The EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia and Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries may change global trade flows [2][16]. China's Crude Oil Supply - Demand - China is the world's largest oil importer and the second - largest oil consumer. In 2025, China's crude oil production and processing increased steadily. In August, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.26 million tons, up 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, up 7.6% year - on - year. From January to August, China imported 376 million tons of crude oil, up 2.5% year - on - year. Russia is China's largest source of crude oil imports [22]. - As of September 24, the operating load of Shandong refineries increased slightly. In the future, the operating load may first decline and then rise, and the supply of gasoline and diesel will fluctuate accordingly [24]. 3. Technical Analysis - In Q3, US WTI crude oil futures prices were in a weak and volatile adjustment at a low level. Since September, WTI crude oil futures have shown strong support at around $60 per barrel, and prices may rebound with volatility [25].

Market Movements - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures up by 0.07% while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down by 0.04% and 0.07% respectively [1] - European indices displayed slight movements with Germany's DAX up by 0.04%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.23%, while France's CAC40 down by 0.24% and Europe's Stoxx 50 down by 0.10% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.64% to $64.11 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.60% to $68.06 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve to support a weakening US labor market [5] - Market participants are betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, with some traders anticipating a total of 75 basis points in cuts over the remaining FOMC meetings this year [5] - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that when the S&P 500 is within 1% of its historical high and the Fed cuts rates, the index averages a 15% increase over the following year [6] Commodity Insights - Gold prices surged past $3,700 per ounce, driven by expectations of significant rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $5,000 if certain market conditions are met [6] - A trader has made a substantial bet that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $50 per barrel by year-end, citing expected oversupply in the market despite geopolitical risks [7] Company News - Tesla reached a confidential settlement regarding a lawsuit related to a fatal accident involving its Autopilot system, agreeing to pay $243 million [8][9] - Nvidia is collaborating with OpenAI and other tech giants to invest £11 billion in the UK to develop AI infrastructure [9] - Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug showed a significant 11.2% weight reduction in clinical trials, potentially reshaping obesity treatment accessibility [10] - AstraZeneca's asthma drug Fasenra failed to meet primary endpoints in a study for COPD patients, posing a setback for the company [10] - GlaxoSmithKline announced a commitment to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five years, coinciding with President Trump's visit to the UK [11] - New Fortress Energy secured a $4 billion LNG supply agreement with Puerto Rico, significantly boosting its stock price [11] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes US building permits and housing starts for August, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and economic forecast [12]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil supply growth, indicating it will exceed previous expectations due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries [1] - The IEA predicts that global oil supply will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from the earlier estimate of 2.5 million bpd [1] - For the current year, the IEA expects an increase in global oil supply of 2.1 million bpd [1] - The growth rate of oil supply is significantly outpacing demand, with the IEA forecasting a demand increase of 740,000 bpd this year, which is 60,000 bpd higher than previous estimates [1] - The IEA warns that next year's oil supply could exceed demand by 3.3 million bpd, an increase from the prior forecast of 3 million bpd [1]

Group 1 - A trader has made a significant bet that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $50 per barrel by the end of the year, citing that the increase in oil supply will outweigh geopolitical risks [1] - On Monday, there was a trading volume equivalent to 10 million barrels of Brent crude oil put options, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] - If the February futures contract price drops approximately 25% from the current level of about $68 per barrel by the expiration of the options on December 23, the buyer of the $50/$49 put options will profit [1] Group 2 - Several well-known energy forecasting institutions are increasingly predicting a supply surplus in the oil market by the end of the year, with analysts from Macquarie estimating a daily surplus of about 3 million barrels in Q4 of this year and Q1 of 2026 [2] - Since August, benchmark crude oil futures have mostly traded within a range of less than $5, with prices previously peaking above $75 per barrel earlier this year before declining due to increased OPEC production and economic pressures from tariffs [2] - Recent attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure have led to a rebound in crude oil futures prices, with expectations of reduced Russian oil exports contributing to a slight market optimism [2]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that global oil supply will grow faster than expected due to increased production from OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ regions, suggesting a potential oversupply by 2026 [1] - The IEA's monthly report states that global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 2.5 million bpd, with an additional increase of 2.1 million bpd expected next year [1] - Despite an upward revision of the global oil demand growth forecast to 740,000 bpd, the supply growth is significantly outpacing demand, with a potential oversupply of approximately 3.3 million bpd next year [1] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase supply, contributing to a growing imbalance in the oil market [1] - The IEA notes that sanctions on Russia and Iran could lead to supply losses, further complicating the supply landscape [1] - The IEA's demand forecast is at the lower end of industry predictions, as it anticipates a faster transition to renewable energy compared to other forecasting agencies [1] Future Projections - OPEC is expected to project a higher demand growth rate than the IEA and will update its forecasts shortly [1] - The report suggests that the global market may experience a supply surplus, primarily driven by growth from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries and limited demand expansion [1]

Group 1 - OPEC maintains its strong global oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, indicating a robust economic growth trend in the second half of this year [1] - IEA predicts that global oil supply growth will outpace demand due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries, suggesting a potential supply surplus by 2026 [2][3] - OPEC+ has raised its crude oil production by 509,000 barrels per day in August, reflecting its earlier decision to increase refined oil production quotas [1] Group 2 - IEA has adjusted its global demand growth forecast upward by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day, citing resilience in developed economies [2] - IEA's report indicates that supply is expected to exceed demand significantly, with a projected surplus of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day next year [3] - IEA emphasizes the impact of efficiency improvements and the transition to renewable energy, leading to a more cautious outlook on demand growth compared to OPEC's optimistic view [3]

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that global oil supply growth will exceed expectations due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries, suggesting a potential supply surplus by 2026 [1][2] - The IEA has revised its 2025 oil supply growth forecast to an increase of 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd), up from the previous estimate of 2.5 million bpd, with a further increase of 2.1 million bpd expected in 2026 [1] - Despite an upward revision in global demand growth to 740,000 bpd for this year, supply growth is anticipated to outpace demand significantly [1][2] Supply and Demand Imbalance - The IEA's report highlights a looming supply surplus, projecting an average increase in global inventories of 2.5 million bpd in the second half of 2025, with a potential supply excess of approximately 3.3 million bpd next year [2] - The anticipated supply growth is attributed to OPEC+, the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, while demand expansion remains limited [2] - The IEA acknowledges that geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and potential additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could alter market dynamics, indicating that a surplus may not materialize as expected [2] - China's continued oil reserves accumulation contributes to a market structure where spot prices for Brent crude are higher than future contracts, indicating tight supply conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil prices for 2025, aligning closely with forward prices, and projects an average price of $56 per barrel for 2026 for Brent and $52 per barrel for WTI [1] Summary by Category - **Price Forecasts** - Goldman Sachs predicts an average price of $56 per barrel for Brent and $52 per barrel for WTI in 2026 [1] - **Supply Predictions** - The forecast for oil supply surplus in 2026 has been raised to 1.9 million barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 1.7 million barrels per day [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with absolute prices falling on Friday. At the end of the peak season for refinery operations in summer, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil contracts strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil contracts strengthened significantly. Refining margins in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the crack spread of gasoline in the United States strengthened, and the crack spread of diesel in Europe fluctuated. The balance sheet for the fourth quarter is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day, and the surplus is expected to be between 1.8 million and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories have increased slightly, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States have decreased seasonally, with absolute inventories at a historically low level for the same period, Cushing inventories have decreased, and gasoline and diesel inventories in the United States have decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous levels (in Europe and Africa), and the spreads of crude oil contracts are expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Pay attention to the transition between the off - peak and peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the crack spread forecast of diesel in Europe for the fourth quarter is raised [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily News - Market expects OPEC+ to pause production increase at this week's meeting. After completing the plan to restore the production cut capacity of 2.2 million barrels per day one year ahead of schedule, OPEC+ members have sent mixed signals about the next step. Despite stable recent demand, the IEA points out that the global oil market will face a significant supply surplus by the end of the year. Some analysts predict that OPEC+ may be forced to cut production next year to avoid a serious supply surplus [3] - Saudi Arabia and Iraq have suspended oil supply to Indian refiner Nayara. After the two major Gulf oil - producing countries stopped supplying, Nayara's crude oil imports in August were completely dependent on Russia. Sanctions have caused payment difficulties for Nayara when purchasing crude oil from SOMO [4] - HSBC maintains its Q4 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel. If OECD region inventories increase or OPEC+ continues to increase supply, the risk will be on the downside. As summer ends and demand declines, the market supply surplus is expected to intensify in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [4] - Houthi rebels claim to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. In retaliation for Israel's air strike on Sanaa, the Houthi rebels said they would escalate military attacks on Israel and shipping blockades [4][5] 2. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5] - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41% [5] - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06% [5] - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2.72 million barrels, expected - 915,000 barrels, previous value - 792,000 barrels [5] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was 2.343 million barrels, expected 928,000 barrels, previous value 714,000 barrels [5] - From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries decreased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintained a medium - to long - term bearish view on oil prices, supported by major institutions' reports on large supply and US inflation data [7] - Short - term market would focus on the Trump - Putin meeting, and a potential cyclone in the US Gulf could push up oil prices in the short term, providing better short - selling opportunities [7] Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's view was to maintain a medium - to long - term bearish view, and thought short - term oil prices might be slightly undervalued [7] - This week, oil prices continued to decline. Concerns about Russian oil disturbances eased, and OPEC+ production increase pressure was magnified [7] - Key factors included weakening month - spreads, stable cracking, major institutions' reports on supply increase, OPEC+ production increase, and the impact of the Trump - Putin meeting [7] 02 Weekly Highlights - Global near - month spreads were generally weak, with Western and Eastern markets showing signs of slowing supply - demand [9][11] - Global cracking was generally stable, with New York and Northwest Europe cracking Brent relatively weaker [13] - Gasoline cracking stabilized, but its upside was limited. Diesel cracking was weak, and its slowdown might impact the fundamentals [15] - Refining economy declined, especially in Asia, which might affect future refinery operating rates [17] - Global diesel inventories were low, mainly due to raw material issues, and were expected to improve before the autumn - winter consumption peak [20] - Major energy institutions' August reports showed that IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations, while OPEC continued to support production increase [22] - OPEC+ 8 - country production showed that most countries well - executed production plans, and many were over - producing [36][37] - The Trump - Putin meeting could cause market disturbances, but it was difficult to change the overall supply - dominated market pattern in the long run [40] - US macro - economic data indicated a potential stagflation situation, and core inflation was stubborn [42] - This year's North American hurricane activity was expected to be 60% above average, and a potential cyclone might affect oil production and refining [44] 03 Price, Spread, and Cracking - Provided data on crude oil futures and spot trends, including Brent and WTI [48] - Presented information on WTI and Brent crude oil positions, futures structures, month - spreads, cross - market futures and spot spreads [50][53][56] - Showed Saudi OSP data for different regions and different oil grades [72] - Provided data on refined product futures and spot prices, as well as cracking data in different regions [77][79][82] 04 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Presented data on global, non - OPEC, and OPEC crude oil supply, including production, capacity, and rig numbers [98][101][104] - Showed data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand [120][123][126] - Provided data on crude oil inventories in the US, OECD, and other regions [130][133][135] - Presented EIA balance sheet data, showing supply, consumption, and balance changes [150]