证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 28 日 分析判断: ► 连续三季度业绩高增，25Q1 盈利能力回升明显 自 24 年下半年以来，公司连续三季度业绩大幅增长，24Q3、24Q4、25Q1 利润增速分别254%、182%、 91%。我们认为，新一轮订单已开始下发，上游材料厂商已进入业绩释放周期。全年来看，在"十四五" 收官冲刺与"十五五"规划衔接的双重推动下，今年订单有望实现爆发式增长，未来几个月需求或持续 释放。我们预计公司全年净利有望突破 5 亿元。 分析一季报情况，25Q1 公司经营活动现金流 1.76 亿元，为 23Q2 以来表现最好的单季，表明回款加 速。从前瞻性指标来看，截止 25Q1，公司存货达 1 亿元，也是近年高点，我们认为公司前期产能瓶颈基 本解决。同时，在产能提升、产线运转良好的状态下，公司毛利率由 24 年的 63.12%回升到 67.23%，费 用方面，研发费率由 23 年 20.70%、24 年 10.56%，降至 25Q1 的 5.87%，带动净利率由 24 年的 43.83%回 升至 47.40%，符合我们此前对公司盈利能力稳健的判断 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨中复神鹰（688295.SH） [Table_Title] 价格下行，修炼内功 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中复神鹰 1 季度实现营业收入 4 亿元，同比下降 10%；归属净利润-0.45 亿元，同比下降 208%， 扣非净利润约-0.58 亿元，同比下降 479%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中复神鹰（688295.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 价格下行，修炼内功 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 1 季度实现营业收入 4 亿元，同比下降 10%；归属净利润-0.45 亿元，同比下降 208%，扣非 净利润约-0.58 亿元，同比下降 479%。 事件评论 风险提示 1、碳纤维行业产能投放超预期； 2、原材料和能源价格大幅波动。 请阅读最后评级说明和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of carbon fiber equipment, with a complete industrial chain from precursor equipment to carbonization and composite equipment, and has diversified into several fields including new energy equipment and intelligent machinery [1][2] Industry Overview - China has become the largest carbon fiber market globally, with demand increasing from 16,789 tons in 2015 to 69,075 tons in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate of 19.34% [2] - In 2023, China's carbon fiber demand accounted for 60% of the global market, and the country holds a 48% share of global operational capacity [2] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, but net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 48% and 50.3% respectively [3] - The company has delivered over 30 production lines and has a domestic market share exceeding 50% [2][3] Future Prospects - The company is expected to secure 60-80 potential orders for carbon fiber production lines in the next 3-5 years, with a total order value estimated between 9.6 billion to 16 billion yuan [2] - The company aims for a revenue target of 2.2 billion yuan in 2024, nearing the peak revenue of 2022, which could significantly enhance fourth-quarter performance [12] Strategic Developments - In 2023, the company acquired 100% control of its subsidiary, Precision Robotics, and is collaborating on a humanoid robot project that utilizes high-strength carbon fiber materials [4] - The company has ongoing contracts exceeding 2 billion yuan, including multiple carbonization lines for various clients [7][8]

也在同日，两家碳纤维龙头企业发布了2025年第一季度以及2024年财报。 【DT新材料】 获悉，4月24日， 中复神鹰 、 吉林化纤 同日发布高层变动公告，原因都是 达到法定退休年龄。 其中， 中复神鹰 总经理刘芳 女士 辞职，公司董事长张健女士代行总经理职责。 吉林化纤 副总经理孔玉影 女士 辞职。 营销方面，公司3K小丝束碳纤维产品销量同比增长35%，高模系列碳纤维产品销量同比增长超 20%；国内T800 级以上高强中模碳纤维销量占比位居行业首位。 2025年，公司锁定重点及新兴领域，聚焦航空航天、风电、光 伏、汽车、体育器材、低空经济等碳纤维需求旺盛的领域。 其中， 吉林化纤 2025年第一季度 营收12.14亿元，同比上升32.39%；归母净利润为826.98万元，同比下降 60.59% 。 2024 年 ， 实 现 营 收 38.83 亿 元 ， 同 比 上 升 3.93%； 实 现 归 母 净 利 润 2888.41 万 元 ， 同 比 下 降 13.90%；实现扣非归母净利润2636.99万元， 同比上升76.88% 。 其中， 碳纤维 营收占比8.24%，同比下滑12.59%，主因行业阶段性供 ...

| | | | | | ギリ: 儿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 年 | | 2023 年 | | 同比增减 | | | 金额 | 占营业收入比重 | 金额 | 占营业收入比重 | | | 营业收入合计 | 1, 728, 702, 529. 39 | 100% | 1,540,068, 490. 56 | 100% | 12. 25% | | 分行业 | | | | | | | 主营业务 | 1, 718, 377, 652. 38 | 99. 40% | 1,533, 268, 380. 21 | 99. 56% | 12. 07% | | 其他业务 | 10, 324, 877. 01 | 0. 60% | 6, 800, 110. 35 | 0. 44% | 51. 83% | | 分产品 | | | | | | | 碳纤维装备 | 725, 466, 695. 57 | 41.97% | 728, 519, 306. 25 | 47.30% | -0. 42% | | 新能源装备 | 8, 255, 019. 63 | 0. 48% ...

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 2.45 billion, a decrease of 2.69% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 741 million, down 15.12% year-on-year [2] - The return on equity (ROE) was 13.50%, a decline of 3.50 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Segment Performance - Carbon fiber segment revenue was CNY 1.45 billion, down 12.91% year-on-year [3] - General new materials segment revenue was CNY 234 million, down 12.86% year-on-year [3] - Energy new materials segment revenue increased by 25.81% to CNY 537 million [3] - Composite technology segment revenue grew by 15.60% to CNY 107 million [3] - Precision machinery segment revenue rose by 161.20% to CNY 89 million [3] - Light technology segment revenue increased by 28.27% to CNY 25 million [3] Market Challenges - The decline in performance was primarily due to a downturn in the carbon fiber and prepreg sectors, with a notable drop in demand for T300 grade fibers [3] - The T300 fiber segment saw a revenue decrease of 39.4%, totaling CNY 516 million [3] - The market price for high-performance industrial carbon fibers dropped significantly, impacting revenue [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on high-end applications and continuous product innovation to meet emerging market needs [2] - A total of 169 new patents were achieved in 2024, reflecting ongoing R&D efforts [3] - The company is expanding its applications in various sectors, including aerospace, automotive, and renewable energy [6] Future Outlook - The carbon beam business is expected to see a recovery in 2025, driven by existing orders [11] - The company anticipates stable demand for T300 grade products in the coming years [7] - The Bagou project is projected to incur losses in 2025 due to high fixed costs from initial investments [12] Customer and Contract Insights - The company is actively negotiating contracts for the CCF700G product, with ongoing supply [4] - The delivery pace for traditional products is expected to improve in 2025 [4] - The company has secured contracts for T800 grade fibers, with a focus on stable supply for large aircraft applications [5]