Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) has depreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.1321 on August 22, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 34 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The central exchange rate for the RMB against various currencies on August 22, 2025, is as follows: - 1 USD = 7.1321 RMB - 1 EUR = 8.2980 RMB - 100 JPY = 4.8231 RMB - 1 HKD = 0.91285 RMB - 1 GBP = 9.5967 RMB - 1 AUD = 4.5911 RMB - 1 NZD = 4.1609 RMB - 1 SGD = 5.5493 RMB - 1 CHF = 8.8398 RMB - 1 CAD = 5.1445 RMB - 1 MOP = 1.1288 RMB - 1 MYR = 0.59109 RMB - 1 RUB = 11.2197 RMB - 1 ZAR = 2.4786 RMB - 1 KRW = 195.32 RMB - 1 AED = 0.51332 RMB - 1 SAR = 0.52451 RMB - 1 HUF = 47.6955 RMB - 1 PLN = 0.51230 RMB - 1 DKK = 0.9006 RMB - 1 SEK = 1.3453 RMB - 1 NOK = 1.4241 RMB - 1 TRY = 5.73020 RMB - 1 MXN = 2.6232 RMB - 1 THB = 4.5545 RMB [2].

Core Viewpoint - The central point of the news is the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reported at 7.1384 yuan per dollar, reflecting a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The People's Bank of China announced the mid-point exchange rates for various currencies, with 1 US dollar equating to 7.1384 yuan, 1 euro to 8.3243 yuan, and 100 Japanese yen to 4.8473 yuan [2]. - Additional exchange rates include: - 1 Hong Kong dollar to 0.91477 yuan - 1 British pound to 9.6509 yuan - 1 Australian dollar to 4.6145 yuan - 1 New Zealand dollar to 4.2188 yuan - 1 Singapore dollar to 5.5672 yuan - 1 Swiss franc to 8.8522 yuan - 1 Canadian dollar to 5.1615 yuan - 1 Malaysian ringgit to 0.59047 yuan - 1 Russian ruble to 11.2361 yuan - 1 South African rand to 2.4756 yuan - 1 South Korean won to 194.33 yuan - 1 UAE dirham to 0.51298 yuan - 1 Saudi riyal to 0.52419 yuan - 1 Hungarian forint to 47.2649 yuan - 1 Polish zloty to 0.50958 yuan - 1 Danish krone to 0.8976 yuan - 1 Swedish krona to 1.3425 yuan - 1 Norwegian krone to 1.4387 yuan - 1 Turkish lira to 5.70820 yuan - 1 Mexican peso to 2.6325 yuan - 1 Thai baht to 4.5426 yuan [2].

Core Points - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.1% on the 19th, closing at 98.265, which measures the dollar's value against six major currencies [1] - The exchange rate for 1 Euro was 1.1647 USD, down from 1.1660 USD the previous trading day [1] - The exchange rate for 1 British Pound was 1.3485 USD, down from 1.3505 USD the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - Economist Alexis Puete warns that the dollar exchange rate in Argentina may exceed 1500 pesos by the end of the year, criticizing the government's policy of suppressing the dollar rate at all costs [1][2] - The current economic situation is described as a "defensive liquidity syndrome," where banks prefer to maintain liquidity rather than pursue profitability, raising questions about the logic of government policies [1] - High interest rates paid by the government to banks, reaching up to 60%, with collateralized loans at 74% and overdraft rates at 80%, are highlighted as a significant concern [1][2] Group 2 - Puete predicts that the pressure on the dollar will soon be felt, particularly impacting supermarket prices due to the dollar component in all goods [2][3] - The Argentine economy faces multiple challenges, with the government attempting to control inflation and stabilize the exchange rate while dealing with significant fiscal tightening pressures [2][3] - The warning reflects long-standing structural economic issues in Argentina, including high inflation, exchange rate instability, and fiscal deficits [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, supported at $3200 per ounce, but require more positive factors for a new upward trend [1] - The marginal effects of previous positive factors such as central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand are diminishing, while the ongoing de-dollarization process and geopolitical crises provide some support against significant declines [1] - Future gold price increases largely depend on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with caution advised regarding the impact of U.S. Treasury issuance on dollar liquidity [1][6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth seen as a correction of the first quarter's distortions rather than a strengthening of growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, the slowest since Q4 2022, indicating weak domestic demand [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, raising concerns about the labor market [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - Tariff policies have contributed to inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Historical evidence suggests that stagflation environments are favorable for gold, as seen in the 1970s when gold prices surged from $43 per ounce in 1970 to $666 per ounce in 1980 [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of July employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with predictions of potential interest rate cuts [4] - Market expectations indicate a 94.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with significant probabilities for further cuts in October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2, reaching 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to high prices [5] - Investment demand for gold in Q2 reached 477.2 tons, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs increased by $3.2 billion in July, indicating strong investment interest [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could strain liquidity in the financial system [6] - Predictions suggest that the cash balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) will rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of liquidity issues [6] - The decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) may lead to pressures in the financing market as Treasury cash balances grow [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar reflects improved economic expectations in China due to the control of the pandemic and the anticipated economic rebound [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On June 6, the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 6.6691, an increase of 404 basis points [1]. - The onshore RMB closed at 6.6457 against the US dollar, rising by 293 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB had already shown signs of recovery before the Dragon Boat Festival, with the onshore rate increasing by 191 basis points on June 2 and the offshore rate rising by 442 basis points to 6.6540 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB - Analysts attribute the recent RMB appreciation to short-term trading factors and the overall improvement in economic growth expectations as the pandemic situation stabilizes [1]. - The trade surplus and net inflows from direct investment, along with increased private foreign exchange asset holdings, provide a solid foundation for maintaining RMB stability [2]. - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that the economic recovery momentum is strengthening, supported by effective policies at both central and local levels [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a two-way fluctuation trend based on reasonable equilibrium [2]. - The external environment, including a slowdown in US inflation and concerns about the US economy, is contributing to a recent decline in the US dollar [2]. - Continued foreign investment in RMB assets is expected due to stable returns, further supporting the currency's value [2].

中国经济网北京1月21日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币兑美元汇率中间价报 7.1703，较前一交易日上调183个基点。前一交易日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1886。 （责任编辑：马欣） 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年1月21日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1703元，1欧元对人民币7.5002元，100日元对人民币4.6550元，1港元对人民币0.92129元，1 英镑对人民币8.8880元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.5238元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1000元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.3229元，1瑞士法郎对人民币7.9486元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0498元，人民币1元对1.1186澳门 元，人民币1元对0.61883马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对13.8440俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.5699南非兰 特，人民币1元对198.74韩元，人民币1元对0.50888阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.51983沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对54.6660匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.56542波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9974丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.5291 ...

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