Core Viewpoint - The potential shift of iPhone production back to the U.S. could lead to significant price increases, with estimates suggesting a rise of at least 25% to as high as 3500 USD, impacting consumer demand and inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Cost Implications - Analysts predict that the current price of the iPhone 16 Pro at 1199 USD could increase to approximately 1500 USD if produced in the U.S. due to labor costs alone [2]. - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates that the price of a U.S.-made iPhone could reach 3500 USD, requiring Apple to invest 30 billion USD over three years to shift just 10% of its supply chain to the U.S. [2]. - Labor costs for assembling and testing an iPhone in the U.S. could reach 200 USD, compared to 40 USD in Asia [3]. Group 2: Labor and Skills Challenges - There is a significant shortage of skilled labor in the U.S., particularly engineers, which complicates the feasibility of manufacturing iPhones domestically [4]. - Apple's CEO Tim Cook noted that the number of engineers in the U.S. is insufficient compared to China, where a large number can fill multiple football fields [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Complexity - Even if iPhones could be assembled in the U.S., most components are still sourced globally, particularly from Asia, which would still be subject to tariffs [5]. - Currently, key components like semiconductors are temporarily exempt from tariffs, but this could change, leading to further price increases for U.S.-made iPhones [6]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Unlike Steve Jobs, Tim Cook has engaged with the Trump administration and has sought temporary tariff exemptions for products manufactured in Asia [7]. - Analysts suggest that Apple may consider small-scale production of certain products in the U.S. to negotiate for tariff exemptions, similar to past commitments for the Mac Pro [7].

美国总统特朗普：我的关税政策将确保钢铁产业从此以后永远是"美国制造"。从宾夕法尼亚到阿肯色， 从明尼苏达到印第安纳，"美国制造"正在回归。 ...

证券研究报告 科技 COMPUTEX 现场走访：主权 AI、美 国制造、NVLink Fusion 是三大话题 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 21 日│中国内地 动态点评 Computex 现场走访：主权 AI、美国制造、NVLink Fusion 是三大话题 5/19-20，我们实地参加 Computex 2025，期间参与了英伟达、高通、鸿海、 联发科等公司的主旨演讲、英伟达分析师会议，并和日月光等公司进行了交 流。通过这次论坛，我们认为，1）中东等地的主权 AI 相关投资短期弥补了 中国市场销售受限的影响，但 AI 应用发展缓慢或是整个产业链的最大风险。 2）中国台湾具有全球较为完备的产业链集群，如何满足美国政府要求，实 现美国本土制造是当前产业链面临的最大挑战；3）NVLink Fusion 是本次 论坛英伟达发布的新技术，或进一步强化英伟达产业地位。 观点#1：主权 AI 投资短期弥补中国市场影响 自 5 月 13 日美国商务部宣布撤销拜登政府 2025 年初发布、基于三档国家 分级体系的《人工智能扩散规则》以来，英伟达和全球算力产业链股价出现 显著反弹。短期来看，这次美国监管政策的调整，为英伟达 ...

美国总统特朗普：金色穹顶项目的一切都将由美国制造。 ...

在美国对华加征高额关税的背景下，中国跨境电商企业到美国生产是否成为了一种新的可能？ "中国材料、美国组装，小工厂，大贸易，未必不是一条可选之路。"近期，有自媒体博主宣扬低成本成 为美国本土制造商的新方法，即把尾端组装线搬到美国，引发了很多业内讨论。 在美国创业的华人Shawn说，一些品类在美国做供应链末端的组装、加工，不是新鲜事，已存在多年。 只是今年随着加征关税以及小额包裹关税政策的变动，很多跨境电商从业者才开始注意到。 比如很多POD（Print on Demand，按需印刷）企业在国内低价采购T恤、杯子等，在美国按照消费者需 求印刷文字、图案。但是，POD厂家能在美国扎根，是因为POD生产流程高度成熟，甚至可以全自动生 产，避开了很多短期内难以解决的障碍，包括人工成本高、本土供应链缺失、技术人才稀缺等。 而其他制造业工厂，似乎很难抗住在美国生产的高额成本。2022年，美国发布了《芯片与科学法案》， 鼓励半导体和设备制造企业到美国建厂。据媒体报道，到2024年8月，响应美国投资案的企业中，约 40%的项目已出现进度延误或暂停。 一、人工贵、风险大，美国只能做简单的组装 近期，有在美国的华人自媒体博主在视频 ...

Core Viewpoint - A trend of Chinese manufacturers establishing factories in the U.S. is emerging, driven by high tariffs and the need for more stable supply chains, as well as the desire to reduce costs and increase competitiveness in the American market [9][32][39]. Group 1: Manufacturing Trends - Chinese manufacturers are increasingly seeking to set up operations in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of tariffs and to adapt to changing market conditions [9][32]. - The "factory within a factory" model is becoming popular, allowing Chinese companies to utilize existing American facilities and resources, thus reducing initial investment costs [14][16]. - Many Chinese manufacturers are transitioning from "Made in China" to "Assembled in USA," which helps in lowering tariffs and improving market access [15][28]. Group 2: Cost Structure - The cost of setting up operations in the U.S. is primarily driven by labor and facility expenses, with average hourly wages for U.S. manufacturing workers being significantly higher than those in China [48][49]. - Simplified assembly lines can be established at low costs, with per-unit costs as low as $10, depending on the product [18][19]. - The use of local resources and labor can help mitigate some of the high costs associated with U.S. manufacturing [16][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - U.S. retailers are increasingly interested in sourcing locally to ensure stable supply chains, even if it means paying higher prices [39][41]. - The shift towards local assembly is seen as a way to enhance product competitiveness and to counteract the effects of tariffs [37][39]. - The demand for American-made products is rising, with many U.S. brands preferring to work with local manufacturers to avoid the risks associated with overseas supply chains [39][64]. Group 4: Challenges and Limitations - Despite the potential benefits, challenges such as high labor costs, regulatory complexities, and a lack of skilled labor in the U.S. manufacturing sector remain significant hurdles [52][56]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and the potential for fluctuating tariffs adds to the risk for manufacturers considering U.S. operations [58][61]. - The current manufacturing landscape in the U.S. is still developing, and many Chinese companies face difficulties in scaling their operations effectively [56][68].

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by U.S. manufacturing companies in achieving 100% "Made in America" products, highlighting a decline in the number of such products over the past year [1][2] - Key components are either too expensive, scarce, or unavailable from domestic suppliers, making it difficult to build a complete supply chain in the U.S. [1] - DECKED, a truck storage box manufacturer, struggles to source the last 5% of components domestically, particularly ball bearings that are competitively priced and available [1] - Rapid Plastic, a small business in New York producing high-end hangers, relies on metal hooks from China due to the closure or relocation of domestic suppliers over the past two decades [1] - Haas Automation, a California-based equipment manufacturer, sources cast iron from China, citing a lack of U.S. manufacturers with sufficient production capacity [1] Group 2 - Haas Automation has reduced production at its California plant and canceled overtime due to tariff impacts, with potential delays in a $500 million new factory in Nevada if tariffs are not lowered [2] - Market research firm NielsenIQ reports a decrease of approximately 2,000 products labeled "Made in America" over the past year, totaling around 100,000 such products [2] - Chenalock, a family-owned business in Philadelphia, produces tools entirely in the U.S. but is concerned that increased demand for metals due to import tariffs may prioritize supply for larger clients like automotive manufacturers [2]

半导体封测龙头日月光投控与面板大厂友达4月30日日均松口规划赴美设厂。日月光投控财务长董宏思 表示，已应客户邀请评估赴美建产能，内部已积极展开讨论，并且"相当有兴趣"；友达董座彭双浪透 露："考虑赴美设后段模组或成品组装厂"。 董宏思透露，已应客户邀请，正评估是否有机会在美国设立运营据点，以支持客户业务发展。不过，目 前尚未有具体投资时程与规模等进一步细节，最终投资拍板与否，关键在于经济规模效益与未来市况， 投资项目预期会是中国台湾现有服务的延伸，但实际细节仍取决于当时的市场情况与经济条件。 谈及关税战的影响，董宏思指出，虽然部分客户提前拉货，但并未观察到客户订单动态出现重大变化， 目前电子代工服务业务直接出货到美国的比重不到10%，可通过移转部分零组件至其他生产据点来应 对。 日月光封测业务直接出货到美国的比重非常低，目前难以具体量化影响，但预期关税的影响对竞争对手 的冲击，将远大于日月光。 展望本季，日月光投控指出，根据对当前业务状况的评估及汇率假设，第二季度封测事业新台币营收将 季增9%至10%，封测事业毛利率将季增1.4至1.8个百分点；EMS新台币营收将年减10%，营益率将年减 1个百分点。法人预估 ...

观察者网消息，2017年4月29日，美国宾夕法尼亚州的Ames True Temper独轮车工厂。特朗普在那里庆祝了 自己执政百日。 八年后，特朗普再迎百日节点。只是当初那座寄托了他复兴"美国制造"梦想的工厂，已经不在了。 它的生产线迁往了中国。 "这正是美国制造业残酷现实的缩影。"随着特朗普关税引发的混乱愈演愈烈，彭博社4月29日发表长文， 揭示了Ames True Temper工厂令人唏嘘的命运。 文章指出，尽管美国政府一再宣称要"复兴美国制造"，但实际就业增长幅度不大，就业增长远低于整体劳 动人口增长速度，企业外流、自动化替代、审批程序繁琐及基础设施不足等问题更是久拖未决，被特朗普 寄予厚望的关税恐难逆转美国数十年来的产业外迁趋势。 位于宾夕法尼亚州哈里斯堡的Ames工厂拥有近150年生产历史，其工具制造史更可追溯至1774年。该厂曾 为乔治·华盛顿的军队和拉什莫尔山雕刻者提供铁锹，其独轮车助力修建了胡佛水坝。对特朗普而言，这里 显然是宣扬"重振美国工厂就业"计划的绝佳舞台。 2017年，特朗普前往Ames True Temper工厂庆祝上任百日。彭博社 "我们信奉'美国制造'，其回归势头之强劲、质量之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The experiment conducted by Afina's owner revealed that American consumers are unwilling to pay significantly higher prices for "American-made" products compared to "Asian-made" alternatives, despite claims of supporting local manufacturing [1][3][10]. Group 1: Experiment Details - Afina's owner, Ramon van Meer, set up a pricing experiment with two options for the same showerhead: one priced at $129 for "Asian-made" and another at $239 for "American-made," which is nearly double the price [2][5]. - During the experiment, approximately 25,650 American consumers visited the purchase page, with 3,560 adding the "Asian-made" version to their carts and 584 completing the purchase, while the "American-made" version had only 24 add-to-carts and zero purchases [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The experiment's results highlight a disconnect between consumer intentions and actual purchasing behavior, indicating that high prices for American-made goods are not supported by consumer willingness to pay [5][10]. - The owner criticized the current economic conditions in the U.S., stating that inflation has made "American-made" products a luxury that many consumers cannot afford [6][9]. Group 3: Manufacturing Challenges - Van Meer expressed challenges in localizing production, citing issues such as lack of manufacturing capacity and skilled labor in the U.S. [8][9]. - Despite efforts to find alternative manufacturing locations, the reliance on Chinese suppliers for materials remains significant, indicating that the supply chain is still heavily dependent on Asia [8][9]. Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - Feedback from consumers on social media echoed the experiment's findings, with many stating they prioritize lower prices over the origin of products, reinforcing the notion that price sensitivity is a major factor in purchasing decisions [10][11]. - The sentiment reflects a broader skepticism about the feasibility of reviving American manufacturing without substantial investment in infrastructure and workforce development [11].