来源：华尔街情报圈 亚洲股市继续追随美股下跌，但跌幅远远低于美股——空气突然安静。 这并非是下跌结束了，而是波动性即将进一步爆发的前兆——英伟达公布财报在即（怕押错方向）。 这就像那种：全班同学突然正襟危坐，铅笔都不敢敲桌子，因为成绩单要发。这种氛围背后唯一的解释 是——大家都知道接下来会有"大事件"改变方向，但没人敢先动。 英伟达将于北京时间周四凌晨05:00公布财报，届时美股已经收盘，亚洲市场将第一个消化所有利好或 利空（波动性会爆，方向还没定）。 1）营收增速预计放缓——不是问题，但容易被当成问题 据LSEG汇总的数据：英伟达8-10月当季营收可能增长逾56%，达到549.2亿美元。听起来很猛，但和之 前动辄三位数增长比，明显慢了。因为基数太大了，去年已经冲天了，今年想继续翻倍已经不太现实。 该公司已连续12个季度超预期，但差距在缩小。 2）预计需求仍将火爆——这将是财报中最稳的部分 黄仁勋上个月说："我们 2026 年前的先进芯片订单已经 5000 亿美元。" 这不是需求弱，这是需求爆到有点离谱。微软、亚马逊、谷歌这些云巨头都在疯狂花钱建 AI 数据中 心。 3）毛利率下滑——这是被严重低估的风险点 ...

来 源 ： 内容 编译自日经 。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 几年前，正当 CM Lai 准备从半导体供应商的高级主管职位退休并离开该行业时，联合集成服务公司 突然向他发出邀请：他是否愿意领导该公司在美国的第一个业务？ UIS 是台湾一家主要的芯片和其他高科技设施制造商，其主要客户包括台积电和美光科技。当时，台 积电正计划在美国亚利桑那州凤凰城建造其在美国的第一座先进芯片工厂。 赖决定接受挑战。 起初，学习曲线非常陡峭。"我们低估了运营成本、获得各种许可证的等待时间，以及在不同地区设 计蓝图所需的细节程度，"UIS总裁赖先生告诉《日经亚洲》。"早在2023年，我就不知道这段黑暗时 期会有多长。" 赖先生表示，他在美国的经历让他明白，不能指望简单地复制在国内行之有效的方法就能在其他地方 取得成功。"你必须融入当地的文化和做事方式，而不是试图完全照搬你在其他地方的做法，"他 说。"如果你想在这里照搬并强加亚洲的管理模式，不太可能成功。" 赖的团队成员以及许多其他供应商，多年来几乎一直住在凤凰城台积电工工场旁搭建的移动办公室组 成的"拖车城"里。这种安排便于供应商协作，快速解决问题，但起初工作时 ...

Group 1 - TSMC reported impressive Q3 results with revenue of 989.92 billion NTD (approximately 230 billion RMB), a 30% increase, and profit of 452.3 billion NTD (approximately 105 billion RMB), a year-on-year increase of 39.1% [1] - TSMC dominates over 90% of the global advanced chip market, allowing it to raise prices without significant competition from other manufacturers [3] - Advanced processes such as 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm contribute 74% of TSMC's revenue, while mature processes above 28nm account for only 12% [3][4] Group 2 - Competing companies like UMC are pushing for at least a 15% price reduction from upstream suppliers due to intense competition in mature manufacturing processes [5] - Other companies in the industry, such as World Advanced, are also seeking price reductions from suppliers to maintain their profit margins [5] - The entire chip manufacturing industry is seeing profits concentrated among advanced process manufacturers, while those in mature processes face fierce competition and price wars, leading to reduced profitability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The debate over whether AI company valuations are severely overestimated is intensifying in Silicon Valley, with concerns that the current AI boom may lead to a financial bubble similar to the 2000 internet bubble, potentially causing significant economic disruption if confidence falters [1][2][3]. Market Trends - AI-related companies have contributed to 80% of the remarkable gains in the U.S. stock market this year, pushing the Nasdaq 100 index up by 18% and raising its forward P/E ratio to nearly 28 times, above the 23 times average of the past decade [4][5]. - Global AI spending is projected to reach an astonishing $1.5 trillion by the end of 2025, according to Gartner [6]. Valuation Concerns - There are growing doubts about whether valuations have exceeded the earnings expectations of these companies, especially as many are investing billions in AI without seeing substantial returns. A study from MIT found that up to 95% of generative AI pilot projects fail to drive rapid revenue growth [7]. - Harvard economist Jason Furman noted that by mid-2025, U.S. GDP growth will be almost entirely driven by data centers and information processing technologies, with other sectors stagnating [9]. Industry Insights - Prominent figures, including Sam Altman and Jeff Bezos, have expressed concerns about excessive investor enthusiasm for AI, with Bezos suggesting that a bubble could ultimately benefit the industry by eliminating weaker players [3][16]. - OpenAI's recent valuation has soared to $500 billion, surpassing SpaceX, and it has secured over $1 trillion in infrastructure and chip agreements with major companies like Nvidia and AMD [14]. Investment Strategies - Family offices are increasingly investing in AI, with 86% of them engaging in some form of AI investment. Most expect to overweight technology sectors in the next 12 months [20]. - However, family offices face systemic challenges in the AI investment landscape, including limited access to top AI startups and the need for strategic adjustments to enhance competitiveness [22].

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that TSMC may shorten the timeline for producing advanced chips in the U.S. due to government demands for accelerated chip localization [1] Group 1: Company Insights - TSMC and Intel's capacity expansion in the U.S. is expected to be sufficient to meet domestic demand for leading logic chips by 2029-2030, excluding the most advanced process nodes [1] - The transition of the memory chip supply chain to the U.S. may require a longer timeframe [1]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Nvidia and OpenAI, valued at $100 billion, is more than a typical business transaction; it is seen as a strategic capital performance [3][4] - Nvidia's investment in OpenAI not only supports the latter's narrative of developing general artificial intelligence but also intensifies competition in the AI sector, prompting other companies to seek similar partnerships [4][7] Group 1: Financial Aspects - Nvidia will provide advanced chips necessary for OpenAI's AI model development, including the recently released GPT-5, and will inject $100 billion in stages to purchase OpenAI's unlisted stock [4] - This investment exceeds OpenAI's total funding of $7.2 billion over the past decade, indicating a significant financial commitment [4] - Nvidia's annual free cash flow is approximately $100 billion, and its market capitalization is around $4.5 trillion, allowing it to absorb this investment with minimal financial risk [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Unlike the telecom bubble of the early 2000s, where companies faced significant risks from supplier financing, Nvidia's equity investment in OpenAI mitigates financial pressure [5] - OpenAI's projected revenue of $12 billion this year is insufficient to cover its capital expenditure plans, highlighting its need for substantial funding [6] - The perception of an escalating AI race benefits both companies, with OpenAI's $500 billion valuation becoming more convincing to investors due to the funding commitment [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The partnership positions Nvidia as a dominant player in the AI chip market, with little competition in advanced AI chip supply, despite other companies developing alternatives [6] - The collaboration is expected to drive competition among AI firms, including Google, Meta, and Anthropic, who are all racing towards achieving "super intelligence" [7] - The notion that underinvestment will lead to obsolescence in the AI sector reinforces the urgency for companies to engage in large-scale investments like the one between Nvidia and OpenAI [7]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Nvidia and OpenAI, valued at $100 billion, is characterized as a strategic capital maneuver rather than a conventional business transaction [1] - Nvidia will provide advanced chips necessary for OpenAI's AI model development while also injecting $100 billion in stages to purchase OpenAI's unlisted stock, surpassing OpenAI's total funding of $7.2 billion over the past decade [1][2] - This partnership is seen as a way for Nvidia to mitigate financial risks while enhancing competition in the AI sector, prompting other companies to seek similar collaborations [1][4] Group 1: Investment Structure - Nvidia's investment in OpenAI is structured as equity rather than traditional supplier financing, reducing financial pressure on both parties [2] - OpenAI's projected revenue of $12 billion this year is insufficient to support its capital expenditure plans, making the investment crucial for its growth [3] Group 2: Market Implications - The deal reinforces the narrative of a competitive AI landscape, benefiting both Nvidia and OpenAI by creating a perception of escalating competition in the AI race [4] - OpenAI's ambitious plans for building more large-scale data centers are expected to enhance its valuation, which could reach $500 billion, making it more appealing to investors [4] - Competitors like Google, Meta, and Anthropic are likely to pursue similar large-scale investments, driven by the belief that underinvestment could lead to obsolescence [4]

Core Viewpoint - Former Intel CEO Craig Barrett calls for approximately $40 billion in funding to maintain Intel's competitiveness in advanced chip manufacturing [1][3] Group 1: Funding and Investment - Barrett emphasizes that leading chip foundries like TSMC and Samsung have no immediate plans to fully introduce their most advanced processes in the U.S. [3] - To ensure supply chain stability and bargaining power, U.S. tech companies should consider supporting Intel's capacity expansion [3] - He suggests that the most viable funding source would be Intel's major customer base, proposing that if eight customers each invest $5 billion, it would provide crucial support for Intel's R&D and expansion [3] Group 2: Technology and Competitive Position - Barrett argues that waiting for customer commitments before making technology investments is not advisable, as semiconductor technology requires sustained long-term investment [3] - He believes Intel still has opportunities to catch up or even lead in cutting-edge technologies such as High-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography and backside power delivery, but this requires immediate large-scale investment [3] - Barrett recommends that customers participate through equity investments in exchange for future production capacity guarantees and "second supplier" options in the U.S. [3] Group 3: Importance of Domestic Semiconductor Manufacturing - Supporting domestic semiconductor manufacturing should be viewed as equally important as supporting other critical industries [5] - Collaboration among companies, customers, and management is essential to address funding and technology development issues, allowing Intel to maintain a key position in the global chip competition [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's unexpected announcement about positive U.S.-China talks and the cancellation of export restrictions on Nvidia's advanced chips to China has calmed market fears, leading to a significant rise in stock indices [1][3] - The U.S. economy is facing severe challenges, including a high inflation rate of 3.2%, which is impacting American households, and a national debt exceeding $35 trillion, leading to concerns from major investors like Elon Musk and Warren Buffett [3][5] - Political pressures are mounting ahead of the 2024 elections, with domestic issues taking precedence over maintaining a hardline stance against China [5][12] Group 2 - The U.S. is experiencing a shift in its foreign policy due to external pressures, particularly from China, which has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by over $28 billion, indicating a strategic move to lower dollar risk [5][6] - The Federal Reserve's attempt to attract global capital by maintaining high interest rates has not been effective in curbing capital outflow to China, as the yuan remains stable [6][8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the U.S.'s continued arms sales to Taiwan suggest that the underlying conflicts between the U.S. and China remain unresolved, indicating a complex and prolonged competition [8][12]

Group 1 - The first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism took place on June 9 in London, focusing on tariffs, technology, and rare earths, which has attracted significant international attention [1] - Following a phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S. on June 5, both sides agreed to continue implementing the Geneva consensus and hold new talks promptly [3] - The U.S. has intensified export controls on advanced technologies, which has drawn criticism from China, stating that such actions deprive other countries of their rights to develop high-tech industries [4] Group 2 - China has implemented export controls on rare earths, raising concerns in the U.S. about potential impacts on domestic industries, while the U.S. has been criticized for not addressing its own aggressive measures against China [4] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce's involvement in the talks suggests a possible reconsideration of some technology restrictions that hinder China's long-term growth objectives [4] - Despite high tariffs causing difficulties for many U.S. companies in China, most surveyed do not plan to exit the Chinese market, indicating the market's significant appeal [7] Group 3 - The ongoing economic negotiations between China and the U.S. are seen as a crucial attempt to seek cooperation and mutual benefits amid a complex international landscape [9] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has stated that it will continue to review export license applications for rare earths while considering the reasonable needs of other countries [6] - The U.S. has issued a ban on nuclear equipment suppliers from selling products to Chinese nuclear power plants, highlighting ongoing tensions [6]