最近，市场上有一件事格外引人注目：美联储主席的继任人选浮出水面。 这可不是普通的人事变动。谁来接替这个位置，意味着未来美国货币政策的方向。加息还是降息，放水还 是紧缩，市场怎么走、资本怎么流，背后都离不开这个核心岗位的动向。 本周有个关键信息：候选人已经缩小到了四位。而且这四人中，出现了明显的"领跑者"。 先看前两个入围者，名字都叫凯文，一个叫凯文·哈塞特，另一个叫凯文·沃尔什。 哈塞特的背景不难看懂，曾经担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，现在还在担任经济顾问，和决策圈的联系非 常紧密。他对过去的政策思路非常熟悉，属于那种"贴身型"技术官员。 沃尔什则是另一种类型，之前在2006年到2011年担任美联储理事，时间点非常关键，他在金融危机那几年 参与了不少重要政策讨论。 这种人讲求稳妥，也有实战经验。据说他在华尔街的评价还不错，不算特别激进，但也不是完全鸽派。 接下来是第三位：沃勒。他现在就是美联储理事，不是局外人。上周他在利率决策会上投了反对票，说现 在通胀压力其实没有那么严重，反而是就业和经济增长开始走弱。所以他的观点是支持降息。 这个观点引起了不小关注，因为在当前货币政策方向不明朗的情况下，公开支持降息就代表着 ...

据中国网财经中心消息，美联储最新议息决议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.5% 不变 。此消息一 出，金融市场震荡，各界反应强烈，尤其是特朗普，对这一结果极为不满。 自特朗普上台以来，一直积极推行大规模关税政策，试图以此重振美国经济，特别是制造业与贸易领域。 更糟糕的是，5 月新增就业人数从最初公布的 14.4 万修正为 1.9 万，6 月的数据从 14.7 万修正为 1.4 万。 这表明美国就业市场明显降温，经济增长动力不足。在这种情况下，特朗普要求降息似乎有其合理性。 特朗普（资料图） 然而，鲍威尔在 7 月 30 日的记者会上明确表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他还提 到，美联储尚未就 9 月份货币政策作出决定，这取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 特朗普（资料图） 不过，这一政策的实施效果却不尽如人意，美国经济面临着更为严峻的价格压力与增长放缓风险。在这样 的背景下，特朗普多次公开炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，强烈要求降息，期望借此刺激经济增长。 当地时间 24 日，特朗普甚至罕见地造访美联储，再次向鲍威尔施压。在视察翻新工程现场时，特朗普与 鲍威尔就工程成本问题产生争执， ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company: Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., Ltd. Key Points Industry Overview - Geopolitical conflicts and de-globalization trends are driving gold demand, offsetting the negative impact of high U.S. real interest rates on gold prices [2][3] - Global central banks and private capital are increasing gold allocations, diminishing the explanatory power of traditional interest rate models on gold prices [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained interest rates, with a slight reduction in expectations for a rate cut in September [2][5] - The relationship between U.S. real interest rates and gold prices has weakened significantly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 [3] Gold Market Dynamics - U.S. 10-year real interest rates are at historical highs but are on a downward trend, with inflation data and Fed policy being key observation points [2][5] - Gold ETFs in Europe and North America dominate the global market, accounting for over 93% of the total, with net purchases showing a negative correlation with U.S. real interest rates [8] - Despite a net outflow from global gold ETFs, there has been a net inflow in the first half of 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in investment demand [2][9] Central Bank Purchases - Central bank purchases of gold provide solid support for gold prices, accounting for over 25% of total gold demand [10] - Countries like Poland and China have been actively increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a long-term bullish outlook on gold [10] Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining is expanding its production capacity through internal growth and acquisitions, notably the successful acquisition of Australian company Iron Road [4][11] - The Haidi Gold Mine, as the second-largest single gold mine in China, is expected to significantly boost production capacity [12] - The Abidjan Gold Mine has commenced production and is nearing full capacity, with a projected annual output of approximately 5.28 tons [14][15] Financial Performance and Projections - Zhaojin Mining's target price is set at HKD 27, indicating a potential upside of about 40% [11] - The company anticipates a 169% growth in 2024, positioning itself as the third-largest gold producer in China [20] - Future earnings are projected to be approximately CNY 3.25 billion in 2025, with potential increases if gold prices rise above CNY 790 per gram [19] Governance and Management Changes - Recent changes in governance, including a younger management team, have improved operational efficiency and reduced management expense ratios [18] - The partnership with Zijin Mining is expected to create synergies in investment, technology, and talent development [17] Risks and Challenges - Potential asset impairment losses could negatively impact profitability [29] - Risks associated with the construction of the Haidi Gold Mine and overseas operations in politically unstable regions [29] - Environmental concerns related to mining practices, such as cyanide use and waste management [29] Conclusion Zhaojin Mining is well-positioned for growth in the gold mining sector, supported by favorable market dynamics and strategic acquisitions. However, it must navigate various risks, including operational challenges and market fluctuations.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting is under intense scrutiny, with expectations to maintain interest rates unchanged, while President Trump and officials exert unprecedented pressure for a rate cut [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% during the July meeting [6]. - Recent political pressure from the White House has intensified, with officials criticizing the Fed's current rate stance as unreasonable [3][5]. - The meeting is perceived as having significant implications for Fed Chairman Powell's future, particularly regarding his potential continuation in the role after May [1][3]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters was described as an unusual political maneuver aimed at undermining Powell's public image and pushing for lower interest rates [3]. - The pressure from Trump and other officials is linked to rising government debt, with interest payments nearing $1 trillion, which could impact budget allocations for other critical projects [5]. - Despite the political pressure, there is no indication that the Federal Reserve will yield to demands for an immediate rate cut, as it remains focused on economic data [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the potential economic impacts of Trump's tariff policies, which may slow economic activity while increasing inflation [6]. - The Fed has maintained rates since early 2025 after a cumulative cut of 100 basis points, with future cuts contingent on inflation remaining low [6].

Core Points - A U.S. District Court judge dismissed a legal request from investment fund Azoria Capital to force the Federal Reserve to make its upcoming interest rate meeting public [1] - The ruling confirmed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not considered a government agency under the Federal "Sunshine Act," thus not required to disclose its meetings [1] - Judge Beryl Howell noted that the FOMC's long-standing practice of closed-door meetings does not violate current laws [1] Group 1 - Azoria Capital filed for a temporary restraining order in federal court, seeking to open the FOMC's interest rate decision meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday [1] - Judge Howell questioned Azoria's motives, suggesting that the fund may not genuinely seek transparency but rather aims to gain media attention for its new fund [1] - Azoria expressed dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming that high interest rates are intended to undermine former President Trump's economic agenda, which they argue harms the American people and economy [1] Group 2 - James Fishback, CEO of Azoria Capital, has consistently criticized Powell's refusal to lower interest rates, aligning with Trump's stance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, under the guise of inspecting building renovations, raises questions about the political and economic implications of his actions, particularly regarding interest rate policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][10]. Group 1: Political Context - Trump's approval ratings have declined due to various issues, including tariffs and health concerns, prompting his high-profile visit to the Federal Reserve to potentially regain public support [3][9][10]. - The visit is seen as a challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, as Trump has previously criticized the Fed's interest rate decisions and has pressured it to lower rates to stimulate economic growth [6][8][12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve has historically maintained its independence to avoid political pressures that could lead to economic instability, as seen in past instances of inflation caused by political interference [5][8]. - Trump's focus on the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve building, which has escalated from initial estimates to significantly higher costs, is perceived as an attempt to exert influence over the Fed [13]. - The future direction of U.S. monetary policy remains uncertain, hinging on the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions despite Trump's pressures [13].

Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the U.S., suggesting a "big fiscal + loose monetary" environment leading to inflation, similar to the pandemic and Biden's era, requiring a compliant Federal Reserve for low interest rates [1][4] - U.S. federal debt has surged to nearly $30 trillion, up from $17 trillion in 2019, with net interest rates increasing from 2.4% to 3.6%, indicating a heavy debt burden [1][4] - The combination of increased revenue from tariffs and reduced interest payments could free up approximately $650 billion for federal finances, potentially offsetting new deficits from the "big beautiful plan" starting in 2026 [6][4] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks, particularly focusing on tech companies with significant overseas revenue, which may benefit from a weaker dollar [10][16] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue short-term treasury bills to raise cash, with a target to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance to $5 trillion by the end of July [10][11] - The performance of the stock market may face downward pressure if the earnings outlook is not strong, especially if the Federal Reserve does not unexpectedly lower interest rates [11][14] Group 3 - Key earnings reports to watch include ASML, TSMC, and Netflix, with specific focus areas such as revenue performance, market outlook, and subscription growth [16][17] - ASML's earnings will be scrutinized for revenue and gross margin performance, as well as insights on the semiconductor manufacturing sector [17] - Netflix's report will be important for understanding subscription revenue growth and future pricing strategies [17]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member and President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bostic, is scheduled to speak about U.S. monetary policy in ten minutes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater believes that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation and economic growth has not fully manifested yet [1] Economic Impact - Some effects of tariffs are beginning to transmit along expected paths, but the impact on corporate investment due to tariff uncertainty remains relatively limited [1] - The U.S. economy is approaching full capacity, and fiscal policy may drag down growth in the short term [1] Fiscal Policy - Once budget measures like the "Build Back Better Act" are implemented, fiscal policy is expected to support the economy [1] Monetary Policy - The likelihood of significant adjustments in U.S. monetary policy in the near term is low, aligning with current market pricing [1]