021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 铁矿周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 短线情绪好转 铁矿承压反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 2995 | 3 | 0.10 | 7455274 | 3091097 | 元/ ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年6月BCI读数为49.3，较前值下行1.0个点。这与前期出来的EPMI数据在指向上一致。6月经济继续确认边际放缓迹象。 第二， 销售和利润前瞻指数同步回落，环比分别下行2.7、2.9个点。我们估计可能和需求端一系列边际变化有关：一是房地产在经历放缓脉冲，6月前28天30城 成交同比为-17.8%；二是从港口集装箱吞吐量和EPMI的6月出口订货指标来看，外需存在放缓特征，可能和海外进口商利用关税平静期补库需求已集中释放有 关；三是"国补"换档、第三批资金待下达期间，家电3C产品等终端销售不排除存在短期扰动。 第三， 企业库存前瞻指数环比上行1.5个点。在销售和利润下降的条件下，逻辑上企业不会主动补库；所以库存上升属于需求放缓带来的被动补库。实际上5月规 上工业企业数据就已经显现出类似特征，在报告《5月企业盈利增速出现调整的原因》中，我们指出"价格回落下拉名义库存；但需求弱于供给、产销率下降导致实 际库存有一定程度的被动上升"。 第四， 企业投资和招工前瞻指数一上一下，投资小幅上行0.1个点，招工下行1.4个点。我们理解投资存在 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 期货研究 中证500 5838.25 ↓0.41 2352.2 IC2507 5809.2 ↓0.29 -29.05 396.7 34054 ↓16156 76012 ↓5170 | | | | | 期指：或偏强震荡为主 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3946.02 | ↓0.35 | | 3281 | | | | | | IF2507 | 3920.8 | ↓0.20 | -25.22 | 386.6 | 32802 | ↓15447 | 65458 | ↓6183 | | IF2508 | 3908.2 | ↓0.27 | -37 ...

Group 1 - In May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, marking a negative growth rate for the first time in five months [1][2] - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [2] - Despite the profit decline, the operating income of these enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 1.1% [2] Group 2 - The mining industry saw a profit decrease of 29.0%, while the manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 5.4% [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector's profit grew by 7.2%, contributing significantly to the overall industrial profit growth [3] - Seven out of eight industries within equipment manufacturing reported profit growth, with notable increases in electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment [3] Group 3 - The "Three Aviation" industries (aerospace, aviation, and maritime) significantly boosted related industries, with profits in these sectors rising by 56% [4] - The aircraft manufacturing sector saw a remarkable profit increase of 120.7%, driven by successful commercial operations and new achievements in space exploration [4] - The shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing industries also experienced substantial profit growth, with metal ship manufacturing profits increasing by 111.8% [4] Group 4 - The smart consumer device manufacturing industry saw profits double, reflecting the impact of the "Two New" policy aimed at large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacements [5][6] - The general and specialized equipment sectors reported profit increases of 10.6% and 7.1%, respectively, contributing to overall industrial profit growth [5] - The government has allocated significant funding to support equipment updates and consumer product replacements, with ongoing projects across various sectors [6]

黑色建材日报 2025-06-27 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 2973 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.10%）。当日注册仓单 18221 吨, 环比持平。主力合约持仓量为 219.1778 万手，环比增加 19178 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3060 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收 盘价为 3103 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 5 元/吨（0.161%）。 当日注册仓单 70514 吨, 环比减少 1779 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 151.0669 万手，环比增加 26 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, the profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, contrasting with a 3.0% increase in the previous month. For the period from January to May, profits fell by 1.1% compared to a 1.4% increase from January to April, indicating a significant decline in industrial profitability due to insufficient effective demand, falling industrial product prices, and short-term fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - The total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 603.4 billion yuan in the first five months compared to the previous four months, despite the year-on-year decline [1]. - The gross profit margin, calculated by deducting operating costs from operating income, showed a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, contributing to a 3.0 percentage point increase in overall profits for large-scale industrial enterprises [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector maintained a high level of profitability, with profits increasing by 7.2% year-on-year from January to May, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [2]. - Among the eight industries within equipment manufacturing, seven experienced profit growth, with notable increases in the electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment sectors, achieving growth rates of 11.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% respectively [2]. Group 3: Aerospace and Related Industries - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries saw rapid development, leading to a 56.0% year-on-year profit increase in the railway, shipping, and aerospace sectors. Profits in aircraft manufacturing and spacecraft and rocket manufacturing grew by 120.7% and 28.6%, respectively, while related equipment manufacturing profits rose by 68.1% [4]. - General and specialized equipment sectors also reported profit increases of 10.6% and 7.1%, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth [4]. Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is implementing more proactive macro policies to strengthen domestic circulation and promote high-quality industrial development, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for the recovery of industrial enterprise profits [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 200 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will support equipment upgrades, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan allocated to 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [5]. - The continuation of the "old-for-new" consumption policy is expected to positively impact industrial profits, with significant profit growth observed in smart consumer devices and home appliances [4].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China remains stable, supported by proactive macro policies and measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development [1] - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous month [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 2024 [1] - Fixed asset investment showed steady growth in the first five months, with manufacturing investment increasing by 8.5% [1] Energy Supply and Demand - High temperatures in northern China are expected to increase the national peak electricity load by approximately 10 million kilowatts during the summer peak [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is enhancing electricity supply capabilities and has established energy supply plans for various provinces [2] - As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [1] Agricultural Production - Summer grain production, which accounts for about 20% of the annual grain output, is crucial, with over 90% being winter wheat [3] - Significant improvements in agricultural irrigation infrastructure have bolstered drought resistance, with over 100 million acres of high-standard farmland established [3] - The comprehensive mechanization rate for crop farming exceeded 75% by the end of last year, with agricultural technology contributing over 63% to production progress [3] Policy Support and Investment - The "Two New" policies have been reinforced, with sales of related products exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [3] - The first batch of special long-term bonds for equipment upgrades has allocated approximately 173 billion yuan to 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [3] - The NDRC plans to issue the third batch of funds for consumer goods replacement in July, ensuring the orderly implementation of the policy throughout the year [4] Renewable Energy Development - As of the end of May, installed capacities for wind and solar power reached 570 million kilowatts and 1.08 billion kilowatts, respectively, accounting for 45.7% of total installed capacity [4] - The utilization rate of renewable energy remains above 90%, with ongoing efforts to enhance the capacity for renewable energy consumption [4]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will allocate the third batch of funds for the consumption upgrade policy in July, emphasizing the principles of "timeliness" and "balance" in fund usage [1] - A total of 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will support the consumption upgrade policy, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [1] - Sales of related products in the consumption upgrade sector, including home appliances and furniture, have exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year [1] Group 2 - The first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan for equipment updates has been allocated to about 7,500 projects across 16 sectors, with the second batch undergoing project review [2] - The NDRC plans to enhance project management and accelerate construction while implementing loan interest subsidies to reduce financing costs for equipment updates [2] - A new action plan aims to increase the labor remuneration ratio in the "work-for-relief" projects from over 30% to 40%, thereby boosting income for the workforce [2]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Support Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is confident in promoting sustained and healthy economic development, with plans to implement equipment update loan interest subsidy policies and issue the third batch of funds for consumer goods replacement in July [1][5] - The NDRC has launched an action plan to enhance employment and income for key groups through the "work-for-relief" program, with a focus on increasing support for vulnerable populations [3][4] Group 2: Investment and Funding - The NDRC has allocated 16 billion yuan for the "work-for-relief" program, supporting over 3,900 projects and expected to help 380,000 people increase their income [4] - A total of 3 billion yuan has been allocated for consumer goods replacement, with 1.62 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [6] Group 3: Sales and Market Impact - Consumer goods replacement has driven sales of over 1.4 trillion yuan this year, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances and digital products [6][7] - The "National Subsidy" program has led to a sales boost of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories by May 31, nearing the projected annual target of 1.3 trillion yuan for 2024 [7] Group 4: Industry Trends and Consumer Behavior - The expansion of subsidy coverage to include digital products and an increase in the number of supported categories from 8 to 12 for home appliances has injected vitality into multiple industries [8] - The combination of national subsidies and promotional events has resulted in substantial sales growth, with some brands experiencing over 200% year-on-year increases [7][8]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of funds for the "old for new" consumption policy in July, ensuring orderly implementation throughout the year [2] - A total of 200 billion yuan will be allocated to support equipment upgrades through special long-term government bonds, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan already allocated to around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [2] - Consumers can receive subsidies for purchasing new digital products such as smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, with a subsidy of 15% of the final sales price, capped at 500 yuan per item [2] Group 2 - The implementation of vehicle scrapping and replacement subsidies will be managed at the provincial level, with financial support being allocated based on performance in 2024 [3] - Subsidies for new vehicles will vary based on the price range, with fuel vehicles receiving up to 13,000 yuan and new energy vehicles up to 15,000 yuan depending on the price bracket [3] - Consumers can receive a 15% subsidy for purchasing energy-efficient home appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per item [4] Group 3 - A 15% subsidy will be provided for materials used in partial renovations of old houses, with a maximum subsidy of 30,000 yuan per household [5]