Core Viewpoint - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed a preference against further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to monitor the risks of high inflation while balancing between overly tight and overly loose monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - George supported the Fed's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points in September, viewing it as appropriate risk management amid a cooling labor market [1] - She indicated that the overall employment market remains healthy despite the rate cut [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflation remains a significant concern, with service sector inflation stabilizing around 3.5%, well above the Fed's 2% target [1] - A worrying trend noted by George is the broadening scope of price increases, with nearly 80% of categories in official inflation statistics showing price rises as of August, up from 70% at the beginning of the year [1] Policy Calibration - George believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation is relatively mild, suggesting that current policy is appropriately calibrated rather than indicating a need for substantial rate cuts [1]

黄金上周再刷历史新高，两度闪崩，再次上演两度V型逆转，震荡破高，单周大涨130美金，来到3900 附近，持续高位洗盘后，多头突破，继续看涨新高。 今天的走势 上周黄金连刷历史新高，继续震荡上扬。 一路连涨，来到3900附近。 接连遇阻，高位洗盘后。 到今天再次高开，成功闯关3900。 强势涨至3920上方，继续看涨延续。 上方新高，继续看向3950，不猜顶，而且还有机会看向4000。 同时，下方再次调整，先是看3886的位置。 此位置支撑反弹，继续看挑战新高。 而且，高位大幅调整，谨防大幅回调。 上周主要因素： 一方面，美小非农意外爆冷，再次冲击美劳动力市场，整体疲软表现。不过重点，美参议院最终没有通 过临时支出法案，美政府正式迎来关门停摆，特别是二次就解决停摆的支出法案，因为两党不和再次被 否，恐慌情绪急剧升温，推升黄金大涨。 另外一方面，美企业裁员数据大幅降温，以及美9月ISM制造业数据大超预期，经济数据向好。美联储 上周也两次放鹰，强调重点，基于关税所带来的通胀风险，美联储或持续限制性政策，美元美债走强， 黄金两度闪崩高位调整。 本周消息面 日元突然闪崩，日新首相上任，日央行继续宽松，美元黄金高开狂飙， ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada has indicated that inflation risks have diminished but are not entirely eliminated, with ongoing uncertainties related to trade tensions and their impact on costs [1][2] - The central bank decided to lower interest rates to 2.5% for the first time since March, shifting focus towards addressing economic weakness as inflationary pressures ease [1] - The Canadian economy contracted by 1.6% in Q2, with exports plummeting by 27%, and the unemployment rate rose to 7.1% in August, reflecting a challenging labor market [1] Group 2 - Structural changes in demand and supply due to U.S. tariffs complicate the assessment of idle capacity in the Canadian economy, potentially weakening the job market and impacting business investment [2] - Despite the cancellation of retaliatory tariffs, concerns remain about the restructuring of global trade leading to efficiency losses and increased costs, with U.S. tariffs possibly affecting Canadian prices [2] - The Bank of Canada plans to cautiously adjust policies while balancing economic downturn risks and inflationary pressures, preparing to respond to new information as it arises [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a decline in the stock market, with S&P 500 futures down 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.75% [2] - The shutdown threatens to interrupt the S&P 500's 14% increase this year, raising concerns about the resilience of the labor market [5] - Research indicates that the shutdown could increase the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.7%, with potential mass layoffs by Trump exacerbating economic pain [5] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the stock market generally reacts mildly to government shutdowns, but defense contractors and airlines may face higher volatility due to reduced government revenue and federal employee travel [5] - Citigroup emphasizes that the duration of the shutdown is critical; longer shutdowns typically weaken stocks and strengthen bonds [6] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that approximately 750,000 federal employees will be forced to take leave due to the shutdown [6] Group 3 - The absence of key economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, raises concerns among investors about the labor market's health [6] - Historically, stock markets have tended to rise during government shutdowns, with the S&P 500, mid-cap 400, and small-cap 600 indices averaging over 3% gains during the last five shutdowns [6]

Market Overview - Global major stock markets continued to rise, supported by unexpectedly strong U.S. consumer spending data, alleviating concerns about economic resilience and improving overall risk sentiment [1] - U.S. stock indices saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indices performing particularly well, while European markets also recorded widespread increases [1] Key Market Movements - S&P 500 Index rose by 0.28% to 6,715.50 points - Dow Jones Index increased by 0.65% to 46,247.29 points - Nasdaq 100 Index gained 0.36% to 24,815.75 points - Russell 2000 Index climbed 0.97% to 2,434.32 points - The rise in U.S. consumer spending data eased direct concerns about growth resilience, supporting the stock market [5] - U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively stable after earlier fluctuations, providing breathing room for the market and improving sentiment towards risk assets [5] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil rose by 0.45% to $65.21 per barrel, driven by supply risks from ongoing export restrictions in Russia and concerns over Middle Eastern supply [5] - Gold futures increased by 1.02% to $3,775.30 per ounce, supported by ongoing uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve policy and inflation risks [5] European Market Performance - The FTSE 100 Index rose by 0.77% to 9,284.83 points - DAX (Germany) increased by 0.87% to 23,739.47 points - CAC 40 (France) gained 0.97% to 7,870.68 points - The European Stoxx 50 Index rose by 1.01% to 5,449.70 points, reflecting strong performance in energy and commodity stocks due to rising oil prices [5] Notable Stock Movements - Electronic Arts (EA) surged approximately 15% on reports of a potential acquisition offer, sparking speculation and interest in the gaming sector [5] - Boeing (BA) rose about 4% following reports that the FAA may ease some production restrictions on the 737 MAX and 787 aircraft, improving delivery prospects [5] - NIO (NIO) fell approximately 6% due to ongoing losses and pricing pressures in the Chinese electric vehicle market, overshadowing optimism regarding policy support [5] Upcoming Focus - Market attention is shifting towards macroeconomic data, including key U.S. inflation (PCE), consumer confidence, and manufacturing data, which will test market confidence in the Federal Reserve's next steps [6] - The commodity market may remain volatile in response to oil supply disruptions and demand hopes, with gold potentially attracting safe-haven funds if inflation surprises or geopolitical tensions escalate [6]

Group 1: Labor Statistics and Government Shutdown - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all operations during a government shutdown, including data collection and publication [4][5] - The Labor Department's emergency plan indicates that economic data scheduled for release during the funding interruption will not be published, and any technical issues will not be addressed on the website [4] Group 2: Political Developments - Vice President Vance stated that the U.S. is heading towards a government shutdown due to significant disagreements between Democrats and Republicans regarding funding agreements [7] - The meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders highlighted the increasing likelihood of a government shutdown within two days [7] Group 3: Swiss Investment in U.S. Gold Refining - Switzerland is reportedly planning to invest in the U.S. gold refining industry in an attempt to persuade the Trump administration to lower the recently imposed 39% import tariff [9][10] - This tariff is the highest among developed countries and has negatively impacted Swiss exports to the U.S. and suppressed growth expectations [10] Group 4: AI Developments - Anthropic announced the launch of its latest AI model, Claude Sonnet 4.5, which is designed to be more capable in programming and practical business applications [9][11] - The model has been recognized as the "best programming model globally" based on industry benchmark tests [11] Group 5: Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President Williams indicated that inflation risks have decreased while employment risks have increased, suggesting a potential slight reduction in interest rates [13] - Fed Governor Milan's argument for significant rate cuts has not gained support on Wall Street, with skepticism regarding the rationale behind his claims [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing deepening divisions regarding further interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing concerns about aggressive easing potentially hindering inflation from returning to the 2% target, while others advocate for faster cuts due to perceived economic weaknesses [1][5]. Group 1: Divergent Views on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are cautious about further rate cuts, fearing that excessive easing could impede inflation from falling to the Fed's 2% target [1]. - Schmid believes the current policy stance is slightly restrictive and in an appropriate position, while Goolsbee warns against multiple aggressive cuts based solely on employment data [1][3]. - In contrast, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran are pushing for more aggressive rate cuts, arguing that inflation is close enough to the target and the labor market is weaker than expected [1][5]. Group 2: Emphasis on Inflation and Employment - Schmid emphasizes the necessity of a moderately tight policy, expressing concerns that inflation may remain sticky and could rise to 3% instead of falling to the 2% target [2]. - Goolsbee highlights the risk of stagflation, indicating that the current environment shows signs of such pressures, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and employment [3]. - Bowman points out that the labor market is more fragile than anticipated, suggesting that the committee should take decisive action given the low average job growth since April [5]. Group 3: Calls for Aggressive Easing - Miran advocates for immediate and substantial rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 150 to 200 basis points to reach a neutral rate, arguing that the current 4% to 4.25% rate is overly restrictive [5]. - He was the only official to vote against the recent 25 basis point cut, favoring a 50 basis point reduction instead, reflecting a more aggressive stance on monetary policy [5].

Macro News - The U.S. has initiated a Section 232 investigation into imports of medical devices, robots, and industrial machinery, potentially leading to tariff actions against these industries [1] - The U.S. has officially reduced tariffs on EU automobiles to 15% [1] - A Chinese central bank advisor has called for fiscal support for the real estate sector, and China has announced measures to promote service exports [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, describing the current situation as challenging [1] - Powell stated that there are no significant financial stability risks at present [1] - Fed Vice Chair Bowman suggested that the Fed may act slowly in supporting the job market, but may need to accelerate rate cuts if demand weakens and layoffs begin [1] - President Trump condemned Western nations' recognition of Palestine during a speech at the United Nations, highlighting the U.S.'s isolation in its support for Israel [1] - S&P Global's survey revealed that the U.S. September composite PMI fell from 54.6 to 53.6, with manufacturing PMI dropping from 53.0 to 52.0, and service PMI slightly declining from 54.5 to 53.9, indicating a slowdown in business activity for the second consecutive month [1] Institutional Perspectives - Recent inflation risks in the U.S. are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, despite the Fed Chair emphasizing the weakening job market [2] - There is a divergence of opinions within the Fed regarding inflation concerns, with some officials believing that despite Trump's tariff measures not raising prices as expected, inflation risks remain [2] - The Fed's hesitance has caused short-term volatility in precious metals, but no clear trend reversal is evident [2] - Economic data indicates a slowdown in U.S. business activity for two consecutive months, with the OECD slightly upgrading its U.S. economic forecast but still expecting significant growth deceleration compared to last year [2] - Market expectations suggest that the U.S. will implement significant rate cuts within the year, providing some support for precious metals, which may require consolidation after recent gains [2]

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Dow Jones falling by 171.50 points (0.37%) to 46121.28, the Nasdaq down 0.34% to 22497.86, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.28% to 6637.97 [2] - The materials sector led the decline, while the energy sector rose due to a significant increase in oil prices [2] Key Company Performances - Tesla shares increased by 4.0%, while Microsoft rose by 0.2%. In contrast, Amazon fell by 0.2%, Apple and Nvidia dropped by 0.8%, and Google decreased by 1.8% [2] - Oracle's stock fell by 1.7% amid reports of the company planning to raise $15 billion through bond issuance [2] Economic Data - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.8%, with Alibaba increasing by 8.2%, JD.com and Baidu rising over 5%, and Pinduoduo up by 1.9%. However, NetEase saw a decline of 1.8% [3] - In August, new home sales in the US increased by 20.5% from July, reaching an annualized total of 800,000 units, surpassing market expectations [3] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 0.6% increase in mortgage applications due to a decline in the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks have injected a degree of caution into the market, particularly regarding the labor market, leading some investors to take profits [3] - Powell indicated that asset prices appear to be at "relatively high valuation levels," and emphasized the need for a balance between addressing inflation risks and labor market weaknesses [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that further rate cuts may be necessary due to slowing economic growth and consumer spending [4] Bond Market - The yields on long-term US Treasury bonds have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.1 basis points to 4.14%, and the 2-year yield rising by 3.2 basis points to 3.60% [4] Commodity Market - International oil prices reached a seven-week high, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.49% to $64.99 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 2.48% to $69.31 per barrel [5] - Gold prices fell from record highs, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery dropping by 1.28% to $3732.10 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, which was anticipated but the extent of the cut was debated, particularly between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell [3][5][21]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. economy's previous claims of prosperity are now being questioned, especially after disappointing employment data, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 104,000 [11][19]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down previous employment figures by a total of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weaker job market than previously reported [13][17]. - The current inflation rate stands at 2.9%, which is above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, complicating the decision to lower rates [25][27]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - President Trump has been pressuring the Fed to lower rates more aggressively, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points that were implemented [34][36]. - The relationship between the White House and the Fed has been tense, with Trump openly criticizing Powell and attempting to influence Fed decisions by appointing allies to the Fed [40][45]. - The urgency from the Trump administration stems from the need to stimulate the economy ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, prioritizing short-term economic performance over long-term inflation risks [55][57]. Group 3: Global Implications - The Fed's decision to lower rates is expected to lead to increased liquidity in the global market, potentially driving up asset prices linked to the dollar, such as gold and U.S. equities [60][63]. - A significant influx of dollars into the global market could benefit emerging economies, but it may also lead to challenges for U.S. exports if the dollar appreciates [67][69]. - Historical patterns suggest that the impact of rate cuts on various assets can vary significantly depending on the economic context, with current conditions indicating a complex scenario for future monetary policy [71][73].