中国经济网北京12月24日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.0471，较前一交易日调升52个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月24日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为： 1美元对人民币7.0471元，1欧元对人民币8.2969元，100日元对人民币4.5017元，1港元对人民币0.90623 元，1英镑对人民币9.5009元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.7108元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1038元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4762元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.9312元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1364元，人民币1元对1.1366 澳门元，人民币1元对0.57681马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.1183俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3715南 非兰特，人民币1元对209.83韩元，人民币1元对0.52241阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53350沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对47.0737匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50896波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9007丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3034瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4267挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.09 ...

来源：证券时报 综合以上观点来看，首先要考虑到我国出口对经济的影响，央行是否会允许人民币汇率破"7"？12月23 日，我国人民币对美元汇率中间价较前一交易日调升49个基点，报价7.0523。可以合理猜测，人民币汇 率升值的趋势可能延续，但速度大概率是缓慢的。其次是基本面是否支持人民币汇率走强？中长期来 看，中央经济工作会议提出坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场，若增量政策加持，内需疲软与信贷需求 低迷的状况得以逆转，人民币汇率升值则具备经济基本面支撑。 值得关注的是，人民币升值如何对资本市场形成影响。短期内，股市表现可能会获得提振，使得以人民 币计价的资产出现同向升值，前提是基本面不发生背离。国际投行高盛曾就美股做过一个复盘研究，显 示汇率上涨0.1个百分点，股票估值则提升3%~5%。 此外，人民币升值还可能带来跨境投资的换汇成本增加。比如，港股通、跨境理财通、互认基金等资金 跨境投资，持股期间人民币汇率升值，最终收益率可能会打折扣。 (责任编辑：叶景) 探究2025年人民币汇率的波动，离不开经济基本面的预期和美元走弱的影响。一方面，我国出口强劲， 超出了市场预期，具备经济基本面向好的支撑；另一方面，美元信用走弱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has risen above the 7.02 mark against the USD for the first time since October 2024, indicating a strong upward trend in the currency [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The onshore RMB also strengthened, surpassing the 7.03 mark against the USD, with an increase of nearly 100 points [1] - Analysts attribute the RMB's appreciation to a weakening USD index and the increasing demand for currency settlement as the year-end approaches [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The substantial currency settlement demand is expected to support a stronger RMB in the near term [1] - However, the likelihood of a rapid unilateral appreciation of the RMB remains low [1]

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB has been driven by a weakening dollar index and increasing year-end settlement demand, with offshore RMB breaking the 7.02 mark against the USD for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The total trading volume of A-shares has exceeded 400 trillion yuan for the first time in history, with an average turnover rate of approximately 1.74%, potentially reaching a new high since 2016 [2] - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4,510 and silver futures exceeding $71.79 per ounce, marking significant annual increases of over 71% for gold and approximately 147% for silver [2] Group 2 - President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for central enterprises to focus on their main responsibilities and enhance core competitiveness, while promoting technological innovation and deepening reforms [3] - The Ministry of Transport expects fixed asset investment in transportation to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan this year, with significant expansions in high-speed rail and highways [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has clarified kindergarten fee policies, allowing for specific types of fees while prohibiting others, aiming to standardize and regulate charges [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.07% and a total market turnover of 1.92 trillion yuan, while sectors like lithium batteries and energy metals saw gains [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.11%, with technology stocks generally weakening, while new stocks like Nobi Kan saw significant gains [5] - The issuance of new stock funds has surpassed 400 billion units for the first time, with 808 new stock funds established this year, marking a historical high [5] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace sector has made significant progress with the completion of IPO guidance for Blue Arrow Aerospace, marking an important step in its capital market journey [6] - Analysts are optimistic about the upcoming spring market, expecting positive policies to boost investor confidence and improve corporate earnings, suggesting a focus on technology and consumer sectors [6] Group 5 - The State Council has outlined key tasks for the 2026 housing and urban construction work, emphasizing the need for local governments to optimize real estate policies and enhance project management [9] - The National Energy Administration aims for a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts for solar thermal power by 2030, reflecting a commitment to renewable energy development [10] Group 6 - The recent surge in AI-related bond issuance has pushed U.S. corporate bond sales close to historical records, with AI-related debt accounting for about 30% of net issuance [19] - The Chinese securities market has seen a strong performance in the bond sector, with a notable increase in the trading of long-term government bonds [19]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by both internal and external factors, with a strong demand for currency settlement at year-end playing a significant role [1][2][3] External Factors - The US Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has weakened the US dollar, which fell below the 98 mark, providing a long-term external appreciation space for the RMB [2] - Market expectations of continued Fed rate cuts are anticipated to further suppress the long-term outlook for the dollar [2] Internal Factors - The seasonal "currency settlement tide" at year-end has increased demand for RMB, contributing to its appreciation [2] - Export revenue is concentrated in the fourth quarter, with December typically seeing the highest foreign trade income, which supports the RMB's strength [2] Market Outlook - Analysts expect the RMB to maintain a strong performance due to ongoing currency settlement demands, with potential for a temporary breach of the 7.0 mark against the dollar [3] - Historical trends suggest that the impact of the currency settlement peak may extend into January, with a potential appreciation of around 0.8% against the dollar [3] Industry Implications - Industries reliant on imports, companies with significant dollar-denominated debts, and certain service sectors are likely to benefit from RMB appreciation [5] - Sectors such as energy, agriculture, and materials may see reduced import costs, while industries like aviation and tourism could experience increased revenues [5] Risk Management for Enterprises - Companies, especially those engaged in foreign trade, are advised to adopt a "currency risk neutrality" approach to manage exchange rate fluctuations effectively [4][5] - Strategies may include using RMB for trade settlements, implementing price adjustment clauses linked to exchange rates, and utilizing hedging tools like forward contracts and currency swaps [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese yuan has strengthened significantly, reaching a 14-month high, with expectations of breaking the "7" mark soon [1] - The recent appreciation of the yuan is supported by strong export performance, which exceeded market expectations, and the effectiveness of consumption-promoting policies [1] - The outlook for the yuan's exchange rate in 2025 is influenced by economic fundamentals and a weakening dollar, with expectations of continued appreciation [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China predicts that the yuan will appreciate to 6.7 against the dollar by the end of 2026 and further to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [2] - The central bank's policies and the domestic economic environment will play crucial roles in determining whether the yuan can break the "7" mark and how quickly it can appreciate [2] - The potential impact of yuan appreciation on capital markets includes a possible boost to stock market performance, with a historical correlation indicating that a 0.1% increase in exchange rate could lead to a 3%-5% rise in stock valuations [2] Group 3 - The appreciation of the yuan may increase the cost of currency exchange for cross-border investments, potentially affecting returns on investments in Hong Kong stocks and other cross-border financial products [3]

作者丨唐婧 编辑丨肖嘉 人民币兑美元汇率近期持续走高，在岸、离岸双双创下逾一年来新高。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，12月23日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升破7.02关口，截至发稿盘中最高升至7.01505，续创2024年10月以来新高。同日，在岸人 民币兑美元汇率收报7.0287，较上一交易日上涨95点，亦创2024年10月以来新高。 人民币兑美元汇率中间价同样上调。12月23日，人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布的数据显示，人民币兑美元汇率中间价为7.0523，较上一交易日调升 49个基点，升值至2024年9月30日以来高点。 回顾来看，此轮人民币兑美元汇率升值从11月下旬拉开帷幕。其间，在岸人民币兑美元汇率从7.11附近升至7.02附近，升值超900个基点；离岸人民币兑美 元汇率从7.11附近升至7.01附近，升值超1000个基点。另据Wind数据统计，今年以来，离岸人民币兑美元汇率累计升值4.4%，在岸人民币兑美元汇率累计 升值3.7%。 早在2023年9月，时任中国人民银行货币政策司司长的邹澜就在国新办新闻发布会上表示，大家对人民币汇率变动和未来走势都非常关注，平时讨论比较 多的是人民币兑美元的双边汇率， ...

作者丨唐婧 编辑丨肖嘉 人民币 兑 美元汇率近期持续走高，在岸、离岸双双创下逾一年来新高。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，12月23日，离岸人民币 兑 美元汇率升破7.02关口，截至发稿 盘中最高升至7.01505，续创2024年10月以来新高。同日，在岸人民币 兑 美元汇率收报 7.0287，较上一交易日上涨95点，亦创2024年10月以来新高。 人民币 兑 美元汇率中间价同样上调。12月23日，人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布的数 据显示，人民币 兑 美元汇率中间价为7.0523，较上一交易日调升49个基点，升值至2024年 9月30日以来高点。 回顾来看，此轮人民币 兑 美元汇率升值从11月下旬拉开帷幕。其间，在岸人民币 兑 美元 汇率从7.11附近升至7.02附近，升值超900个基点；离岸人民币 兑 美元汇率从7.11附近升至 7.01附近，升值超1000个基点。另据Wind数据统计，今年以来，离岸人民币 兑 美元汇率累 计升值4.4%，在岸人民币 兑 美元汇率累计升值3.7%。 对此，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青解读称，在美联储12月降息前后，美元指数呈下行趋 势，这带动了包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍出 ...

（原标题：离岸人民币对美元升破7.02 中小微企业汇率避险迎来新政） 21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 北京报道 人民币对美元汇率近期持续走高，在岸、离岸双双创下逾一年来新高。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，12月23日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.02关口，截至发稿盘中最高升至 7.01505，续创2024年10月以来新高。同日，在岸人民币对美元汇率收报7.0287，较上一交易日上涨95 点，亦创2024年10月以来新高。 对此，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青解读称，在美联储12月降息前后，美元指数呈下行趋势，这带动了 包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍出现升值。此外，年底临近，企业结汇需求增加，也会带动人民币季节 性走强。在近期人民币持续走强的背景下，前期累积的结汇需求可能加速释放。 值得注意的是，随着近期人民币兑美元汇率持续走强，市场对破"7"的讨论声量也越来越高。而不久前 召开的中央经济工作会议部署2026年经济工作时指出，要保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳 定。这也是中央经济工作会议连续第四年强调"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"。 人民币对美元汇率中间价同样上调。12月23日，人民银行授权中国外汇交 ...

（原标题：人民币汇率升破7.03关口 温和升值势头望延续） 人民币汇率震荡升值行情仍在继续。12月23日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率截至16时30分收盘报7.0287，升 破7.03关口，刷新2024年10月以来新高，较上一交易日涨95个基点；离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中升破 7.02关口，为2024年10月以来首次。12月以来，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率收盘价已分别累计上涨 438个、407个基点。 对于近期人民币汇率升值行情，国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟向证券时报记者指出，这是 我国外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共同作用的结果。 从外部形势看，美元指数自11月下旬跌破100后，在12月继续震荡下行，带动包括人民币在内的非美元 货币普遍升值。除了市场对美国经济乃至美元资产回报稳定性的持续担忧外，近期美国非农失业率创四 年来新高，就业数据的走弱强化了市场降息预期，也导致近期美元指数持续偏弱。 从经济基本面看，临近年末中国经济基本面持续企稳向好，金融市场稳定运行，对人民币汇率基本稳定 提供支撑。近期召开的中央经济工作会议指出，今年"经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成"。国家外汇管 ...