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基本面改善叠加流动性充裕机构表示港股下半年或再创新高
今年以来,港股市场表现亮眼,截至6月17日收盘,恒生指数累计涨逾19%,恒生科技指数累计涨逾 18%,恒生指数成分股中总市值超1万亿港元的股票均上涨,涨幅最大的小米集团-W累计涨逾56%,总 市值最大的腾讯控股累计涨逾24%,科技、红利、消费股均有所表现。 港股市场的亮眼表现离不开增量资金的持续流入,今年以来南向资金持续加仓港股市场,累计净流入超 6900亿港元,创历史同期新高,为2024年同期的2倍多。 机构人士认为,外部扰动因素对港股基本面影响相对有限,企业盈利仍具韧性,南向资金或也将持续流 入港股市场带来支撑。随着国内稳增长政策加码带来港股业绩上修,叠加全球流动性环境改善,港股有 望迎来基本面和风险偏好的双重改善,走出创新高之旅。 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 葛瑶 恒生指数累计涨逾19% 今年一季度,在DeepSeek引领中国资产重估叙事的大背景下,港股表现全球领先,AI相关的科技硬件 与互联网板块领涨港股市场。而受海外因素扰动,港股市场在4月一度出现明显回调,一季度领涨的科 技硬件与互联网板块,出口链相关的如汽车与电子设备等板块回调明显。在恒生指数跌破20000点后, 港股市场在急跌后展开反弹,之后随着外部 ...
贸易风波再起,茅台和Labubu你选谁?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 15:47
Group 1 - The EU has canceled high-level economic dialogues with China due to a lack of progress on trade issues, leading to a negative sentiment in the A-share market [1] - The technology sector in A-shares experienced a significant adjustment, with the computer sector seeing a maximum decline of 25% before a weak rebound, indicating that valuations have not been adequately digested [3][6] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the computer sector remains high at 80 times, suggesting potential downside risk [6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a slight decline, but there is still a bullish outlook due to key level breakthroughs and liquidity benefits from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector saw a nearly 5% drop, but the investment strategy remains to increase positions during significant declines [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the Hong Kong technology index has decreased to 22.8 times, which is only higher than 18.8% of the time in the past three years, indicating a more favorable valuation [6] Group 3 - The consumer sector in Hong Kong is being highlighted, particularly through the E Fund Hong Kong Consumer ETF, which tracks the National Index and includes major companies benefiting from domestic economic growth [11] - The new consumption trend is characterized by the "self-indulgence economy," where young consumers are willing to spend for emotional value, as evidenced by the 50% repurchase rate of collectibles like Pop Mart [11][12] - Changing consumption scenarios show a shift from traditional activities to experiences like park visits and CityWalk, which are among the fastest-growing leisure activities [12][13] Group 4 - The resurgence of traditional domestic products is noted, with high-end gold products gaining popularity through cultural and technological integration, redefining the luxury market [14]
中信建投预测下半年A股:先震荡,后向上
第一财经· 2025-06-17 15:42
2025.06. 17 资本市场改革有望迎"组合拳" 2025年上半年,中国经济平稳开局,一季度GDP同比增长5.4%,但价格低位运行、房地产持续拖 累、消费信心不足等问题仍存。中美经贸谈判取得了突出阶段性进展之后,2025年最大的不确定性 风险逐步缓解。 "在政策发力和内生动力支撑下,全年有望完成5%的GDP增长目标。"黄文涛分析称,中美贸易谈判 进入稳定期,出口前景有所改善;房地产、地方政府债务两大风险进入实质化解阶段;下半年财政扩 张加速有望支撑基建和消费持续增长。 展望下半年,黄文涛认为,中国经济将有五大亮点:一是新消费供给侧创新拓展需求边界,二是产业 升级稳步推进,三是制造业绿色化、高端化、智能化发展,四是财政政策进入扩张期,五是制度型开 放稳步推进。 本文字数:1916,阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 黄思瑜 上半年先有DeepSeek火爆出圈,后有税率超预期的贸易战,在偶发因素牵引下,全球资本市场巨幅 波动。进入下半年,资本市场又将迎来哪些新变化? 6月17日,在中信建投证券2025年中期资本市场投资峰会上,中信建投证券党委副书记、总经理金 剑华认为,中国的科技创新和产业升级,正在改变 ...
邀请函|“新潮涌动,消费争荣”国泰海通新消费论坛
本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...
国泰海通 · 晨报0618|策略、机械
每周一景: 湖南永州九嶷山风景名胜区 点击右上角菜单,收听朗读版 【 策略】 中国股市十大投资 主题: 前沿技术篇 十大投资主题展望:主题开路作先锋,看好中国"转型牛"。 在遍历冲击后,投资人对经济形势的认识已然充分,中国股市预期和估值的主要矛盾已经发生转 变,可以看到: 1 )新技术趋势和商业模式开始涌现; 2 )投资股票的机会成本降低,无风险利率下降增量入市; 3 )经济政策更及时、得当与合理,资本 市场改革更重视投资者回报,投资人对风险的认识与保守态度同步转向积极。因此,贴现率下降不仅是中国股市上升的关键动力,也为主题投资创造有利土 壤,产业性主题和交易性主题均将获得机会。本文以聚焦前沿技术、先进制造、格局改善三大方向共计十大主题,讨论 2025H2 投资机会。 主题一: AI 与具身智能。 1 )人工智能具备产业趋势投资的所有重要特征,投资路径有望遵循"信息基建建设"、"基础软件部署"、"线上应用爆发"、"重塑线 下行业"的规律, AI 智能体成为 AI 应用商业化的关键催化,且有望拉升算力需求曲线。看好具备资本开支与用户入口优势的互联网大厂;受益算力需求曲线 提升的 AIDC 和国产算力产业链。 2 ...
利好!外资大举增持!
证券时报· 2025-06-17 11:40
外资增持境内股票较上月进一步增加。 6月17日,国家外汇管理局最新统计数据显示,2025年5月,银行结汇13861亿元人民币,售汇13051亿元人 民币。2025年1—5月,银行累计结汇67235亿元人民币,累计售汇70867亿元人民币。 2025年5月,银行代客涉外收入44800亿元人民币,对外付款42426亿元人民币。2025年1—5月,银行代客累 计涉外收入230862 亿元人民币,累计对外付款223540亿元人民币。 国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌表示,5月份,境内外汇供求总体平衡,外汇市场运行平稳。一是跨 境资金延续净流入。5月份企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入330亿美元。其中,货物贸易资金净流入 保持在较高水平,外资增持境内股票较上月进一步增加,服务贸易、外商投资企业分红派息、对外直接投资等 资金净流出总体保持稳定。二是市场预期平稳。5月份银行结售汇转为顺差。企业、个人等结汇意愿稳定,购 汇需求回落,市场交易理性有序。当前我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势,将继续为外汇市场稳健运 行提供有力支撑。 值得一提的是,多家外资机构看多中国市场。 摩根士丹利近日发布报告称,目前全球投资者对 ...
港股新消费熄火,“三姐妹”迎强降温,狂热行情暂歇?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-17 10:40
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector is experiencing a cooling period after a previous surge, with significant declines in the stock prices of key players in this sector. Group 1: Market Performance - The "new consumption trio" consisting of Lao Pu Gold, Pop Mart, and Mixue Group saw their stock prices drop significantly, with declines of 6.67%, 6.04%, and 5.85% respectively [2][3]. - Other companies in the sector, such as Bruker and Juzhibio, also faced declines, with Bruker dropping over 7% and Juzhibio nearly 5% [3][4]. - Year-to-date, Lao Pu Gold has increased by over 276%, Pop Mart by over 191%, and Mixue Group by over 158%, with a combined market capitalization exceeding 690 billion HKD [11][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new consumption sector experienced a strong rally earlier this year, with a reported increase of over 55% from April 7 to June 11, significantly outperforming internet giants during the same period [9]. - The influx of capital from southbound funds into the new consumption sector amounted to 18.325 billion HKD, marking it as a crucial source of incremental funding [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts have raised concerns about the overheated nature of the new consumption market, suggesting that stock prices may be inflated beyond reasonable valuations [15][16]. - Factors contributing to the rise of new consumption include changing demographics, particularly the spending power of Generation Z, and a shift towards more frequent, smaller discretionary purchases due to slower income growth [15]. - Some analysts believe that the current market for innovative drugs and new consumption may have reached a peak, indicating potential volatility or adjustments ahead [17][18].
南京熊猫电子,一度大涨超56%
中国基金报· 2025-06-17 10:19
【导读】南京熊猫电子股份一度狂飙超 56%, 引领脑机接口概念股逆市大涨 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 6 月 17 日,香港三大股指齐跌。恒生指数收盘跌 0.34% ,恒生科技指数跌 0.15% ,恒生 中国企业指数跌 0.4% 。全日大市成交额为 2021 亿港元,较前一交易日有所回落。南向资 金净买入额为 63.02 亿港元。 周大福跌 7.29% ,石药集团跌 6.40% ,中国生物制药跌 5.30% ,领跌蓝筹。 | 序号 | 名称 | 代码 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 ^ | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 周大福 | 1929 | 12.720 c | -1.000 | -7.29% | 10.95亿 | 89.00% | | 2 | 石药集团 | 1093 | 8.190 c | -0.560 | -6.40% | 28.11亿 | 73.56% | | 3 | 中国生物制药 | 1177 | 5.000 c | -0.280 | -5.30% | 11.45亿 | 57.39% | | 4 | ...
刚刚!大跳水
中国基金报· 2025-06-17 08:04
【导读】市场震荡,创新药、新消费板块,集体跳水! 中国基金报记者 泰勒 今天的市场,略微震荡,三大指数集体收跌,一起看看发生了什么事情。 6月17日,市场全天窄幅震荡,三大指数小幅下跌。截至 收盘,沪指跌0.04%,深成指跌0.12%,创业板指跌0.36%。 市场共2250只个股上涨,61只个股涨停,2921只个股下跌。 | 880005 涨跌家数 | | | --- | --- | | 其中 涨停 | 61 | | 涨幅 > 7% | 80 | | 涨幅 5-7% | 64 | | 涨幅 3-5% | 182 | | 涨幅 0-3% | 1924 | | 跌幅 0-3% | 2616 | | 跌幅 3-5% | 681 | | 跌幅 5-7% | 67 | | 跌幅 > 7% | ਕਰ | | 其中 跌停 | 9 | | 上涨家数 | 2250 | | 下跌家数 | 2921 | | 平盘停牌 | 247 | | 总品种数 | 5418 | | 总成交额 | 12371.36亿 | | 总成交量 | 100014.4/ל | | 涨家增减 | -459 | | 涨家增幅 | -16.94% | | 指数量比 ...
中信建投首席经济学家黄文涛:要加速构建国内统一大市场
news flash· 2025-06-17 07:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of a unified domestic market in China, focusing on addressing consumption and income issues [1] - The company suggests increasing policy efforts on "investing in people" to enhance human capital [1] - It is important to maintain confidence and leverage policy space advantages effectively [1] Group 2 - In terms of asset allocation, the recommendation is to continue using dividend assets as the core holding [1] - The company advises actively exploring new sectors, particularly in new consumption, humanoid robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]