以下文章来源于和谐汇一资产管理 ，作者和谐汇一 和谐汇一资产管理 . 和谐汇一是一家专注于权益类二级市场投资的私募基金管理公司，由林鹏先生发起创立。旨在为投资 者、为所投资公司及社会发展发现持久价值，做中国最优秀企业的长期陪伴者。 2025年新消费的鲜花着锦，让很多人看到了IP产业的魅力。崇尚理性的资本市场，也开始试图为"情绪 价值"定价，拆解不断涌现的中国新消费公司以及他们的商业模式。 从一个IP的走红，到一个IP公司的成功，再到一个IP公司经历周期洗礼仍然基业长青，当下的中国新消 费还在探索的道路上。什么样的框架能够帮助我们更好的理解这种变化，什么样的经验能够指引我们看 到更广阔的未来？ 和谐汇一研究部消费组研究员王天浩将IP产业放在全球视野下去复盘更长的历史，总结出了他们对这个 行业的深入思考。 或许某个闲暇午后，当人们刷着短视频时，会偶然被一段玲娜贝儿的互动视频所吸引。那只穿着蓬松小 裙的粉紫色小狐狸，在迪士尼乐园里冲游客挥手、歪头卖萌。 她一句台词没有，却轻易唤起了观众内心深处的柔软情绪。这份心动正是IP的本质： IP是情绪的容器， 是集体记忆的锚点。 在当下内容过剩的时代，IP不只是一个形象或故事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Pop Mart has once again exceeded market expectations, showcasing significant growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of 138.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [4][5]. - Gross profit reached 97.61 billion RMB, up 234.4% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 70.3%, an increase of 6.3% from the previous year [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.74 billion RMB, reflecting a 396.5% increase year-on-year, surpassing the total revenue and profit of the previous year [3][4]. - Adjusted net profit was 47.1 billion RMB, a 362.8% increase compared to the same period last year [4][5]. Operational Highlights - As of June 30, 2025, Pop Mart operated 571 stores across 18 countries and regions, with a net increase of 40 stores in the first half of the year [6]. - The company also operated 2,597 robotic stores, adding 105 new stores during the same period [6]. - Revenue by region showed significant growth: - China: 82.83 billion RMB, up 135.2% - Asia-Pacific: 28.51 billion RMB, up 257.8% - Americas: 22.65 billion RMB, up 1142.3% - Europe and others: 4.78 billion RMB, up 729.2% [6]. IP Performance - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart had 13 artist IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in revenue, with notable contributions from THE MONSTERS, MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO [6][7]. - The LABUBU IP emerged as one of the most popular globally, contributing significantly to sales [7]. Product Development - Pop Mart focuses on IP-driven product lines, with plush products generating 61.39 billion RMB in revenue, a staggering increase of 1276.2% year-on-year, accounting for 44.2% of total revenue [8]. Market Outlook - The stock price of Pop Mart has surged over 2700% since October 2022, with a recent market capitalization of 377.1 billion HKD [9]. - Analysts predict continued high growth for Pop Mart, supported by its "IP-product-channel" flywheel and ongoing global expansion [9][10]. - Citigroup raised its target price for Pop Mart from 162 HKD to 308 HKD, citing the increasing global recognition of the LABUBU IP and the potential for new product launches to act as short-term catalysts [10].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Pop Mart has once again exceeded market expectations, showcasing significant growth in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by its strong IP portfolio and global expansion strategy [2][8]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of 138.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 45.74 billion RMB, reflecting a remarkable growth of 396.5% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - Adjusted net profit was reported at 47.1 billion RMB, up 362.8% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross profit for the same period was 97.61 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 70.3%, an increase of 6.3% from the previous year [5][4]. IP and Product Strategy - Pop Mart operates 571 stores across 18 countries and regions, with a net increase of 40 stores in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The company has 13 IPs generating over 100 million RMB in revenue, with the top IPs including THE MONSTERS and MOLLY, contributing significantly to overall sales [6][7]. - The plush product line, leveraging unique IP characteristics, generated 61.39 billion RMB in revenue, marking a staggering growth of 1276.2% [7]. Regional Performance - Revenue from China reached 82.83 billion RMB, growing at 135.2% year-on-year [6]. - The Asia-Pacific region saw revenue of 28.51 billion RMB, up 257.8% [6]. - The Americas experienced a remarkable growth of 1142.3%, with revenue hitting 22.65 billion RMB [6]. - Europe and other regions achieved revenue of 4.78 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 729.2% [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict that Pop Mart's growth trajectory will continue, with expectations of maintaining high growth rates over the next three years due to its effective IP-product-channel flywheel strategy [8][9]. - The stock price has surged significantly, with a year-to-date increase of 214.51%, and analysts have set target prices reflecting continued optimism about the company's future performance [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the booming popularity of Pop Mart's products, particularly the LABUBU series, which has led to significant supply challenges and the emergence of a secondary market driven by scalpers and counterfeit goods [1][2][3][4][5][9]. Group 1: Market Demand and Sales Dynamics - The summer season has seen a surge in customer traffic at Pop Mart stores, particularly among students, leading to increased spending by parents [2]. - LABUBU products are not directly available for purchase in stores, requiring customers to participate in online flash sales, which have proven extremely competitive [2][3]. - The online limited release model has facilitated the rise of scalpers, who quickly buy up stock and resell it at a premium in various online communities [3][4]. Group 2: Scalper and Counterfeit Issues - The scalper market has become a significant issue, with dedicated groups forming to share information on product restocks, often leading to rapid resales at inflated prices [3][4]. - A gray market has emerged where individuals charge fees for access to real-time restock notifications, often employing deceptive practices [3]. - Counterfeit products are rampant, with some sellers openly advertising fake goods, while others create convincing replicas that are sold as genuine [5][6]. Group 3: Company Performance and Valuation - Pop Mart's strong sales have resulted in explosive revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase of no less than 200% and net profit growth of at least 350% for the first half of 2025 [9]. - The company's stock price has seen significant appreciation, reaching a historical high of 283.4 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 380 billion HKD at its peak [9]. - Analysts express optimism about Pop Mart's long-term prospects, citing its robust retail business model and competitive advantages in the market [9][10]. Group 4: Future Challenges and Opportunities - Despite positive growth, the company faces potential volatility in stock prices due to the unpredictable nature of popular IP products [10][11]. - The company is encouraged to enhance its IP development capabilities to maintain its competitive edge and drive global expansion [10][11]. - Analysts predict strong future growth rates for sales and profits, driven by strong IP, store expansion, and improved productivity [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the booming popularity of Pop Mart's products, particularly the LABUBU series, and the challenges the company faces regarding supply capacity, counterfeit products, and the secondary market driven by scalpers [2][12]. Group 1: Market Demand and Scalping - Pop Mart's LABUBU series has become a hot commodity, leading to a significant increase in foot traffic in stores during the summer, especially among students [4]. - Consumers report difficulties in purchasing products due to high demand and limited availability, often resorting to waiting in online queues for drops [5]. - The scarcity of products has led to a thriving scalper market, where individuals quickly buy up stock to resell at a premium [6]. Group 2: Counterfeit Products - The rise in popularity of LABUBU has resulted in a surge of counterfeit products, with some sellers openly advertising fake items at lower prices [9]. - Counterfeit goods can be categorized into two types: those that openly declare themselves as fakes and those that are designed to deceive consumers into believing they are genuine [9]. - Pop Mart has limited ability to authenticate products purchased through third-party channels, complicating the issue of counterfeit goods [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Pop Mart's sales have skyrocketed, with a projected revenue growth of at least 200% and net profit growth of at least 350% for the first half of 2025 [13]. - The company's stock price has seen significant increases, reaching a historical high of 283.4 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 380 billion HKD [13]. - Analysts express optimism about Pop Mart's long-term prospects, citing its strong retail foundation and competitive advantages in the market [12][15]. Group 4: Future Challenges and Opportunities - While Pop Mart's growth is promising, the volatility of its stock price is a concern due to the unpredictable nature of popular IP products [14]. - The company is seen as having the potential to become a global leader in the IP industry, akin to Disney, if it can enhance its content production capabilities [14]. - The community engagement fostered by Pop Mart enhances brand loyalty and encourages secondary market activity, which could be beneficial for long-term growth [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the booming popularity of Pop Mart's products, particularly the LABUBU series, which has led to significant supply challenges and the emergence of a secondary market driven by scalpers and counterfeit goods [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Demand and Sales Dynamics - The summer season has seen a surge in foot traffic at Pop Mart stores, particularly among students, with parents willing to spend significantly on trendy toys [3]. - LABUBU products are not directly available for purchase in stores; instead, customers must participate in online flash sales, which have proven extremely competitive, often selling out in seconds [3][4]. - The combination of high demand and limited online availability has facilitated the rise of scalpers, who quickly buy up stock and resell it at a premium [4][5]. Group 2: Scalper and Counterfeit Issues - The scalper market has become a significant issue, with dedicated groups on social media facilitating the rapid resale of Pop Mart products, often within minutes of restocking [4][5]. - A new gray market has emerged, where individuals charge fees for real-time restock notifications, exploiting the high demand for limited-edition items [4]. - Counterfeit products have proliferated, with some sellers openly advertising fake items at lower prices, while others misrepresent counterfeit goods as authentic [6][8]. Group 3: Company Performance and Valuation - Pop Mart's strong sales performance has led to explosive growth in revenue and profit, with a projected revenue increase of at least 200% and net profit growth of at least 350% for the first half of 2025 [10]. - The company's stock price has seen significant appreciation, reaching a historical high of 283.4 HKD, with a market capitalization exceeding 380 billion HKD [10]. - Analysts remain optimistic about Pop Mart's long-term prospects, citing its robust retail business model and competitive advantages in the market [10][12]. Group 4: Future Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the positive outlook, the volatility of Pop Mart's stock price is a concern, driven by the unpredictable nature of popular IP products and their limited lifecycles [11]. - The company is seen as a potential leader in the global IP market, with opportunities to enhance its content production capabilities and expand its brand internationally [11]. - Ongoing efforts to combat counterfeit goods and improve consumer trust are critical for maintaining brand integrity and market position [6][8].

Group 1: Box Office Performance - Several high-rated domestic films were released in late July, with "The Lychee of Chang'an" and "The King's Avatar: Season 2" leading the daily box office [1] - "The King's Avatar: Season 2" achieved a Douban score of 8.6, surpassing its predecessor and becoming the highest-rated domestic animated film of the year [1] - Despite high ratings, box office growth remains slow, with projections of 3.24 billion yuan for "The King's Avatar: Season 2" and 7.21 billion yuan for "The Lychee of Chang'an" [1] Group 2: Company Earnings Forecast - Eight A-share film companies have released mid-year earnings forecasts, with five reporting losses and three, including Wanda Film, Hengdian Film, and Jinyi Film, reporting profits [2] - Wanda Film expects a net profit of 500 million to 560 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 340.96% to 393.87% [2] - Hengdian Film anticipates a significant profit increase of 103.55% to 160.09%, driven by improved film supply and increased viewing demand [2] Group 3: Market Challenges and Strategies - The film industry is facing challenges due to a cooling market, with companies needing strong film reserves and non-ticket revenue to achieve good results [3] - Companies are actively seeking to diversify revenue streams by expanding non-ticket business and embracing IP industries [4] - Wanda Film announced a "1+2+5" strategic framework to create a super entertainment space and expand into domestic and international markets [5] Group 4: Industry Opportunities - The film industry is presented with three major opportunities: advancements in AI and virtual production technology, government support for film consumption and production, and the potential for non-box office revenue [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, driven by the ongoing popularity of IPs and supportive policies, particularly in the gaming and film sectors [1][4][9] Market Performance - On June 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.66%. The total market turnover was 1.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of 260.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Highlights - The gaming ETF (516010) increased by 5.24%, while the film ETF (516620) rose by 4.68% [2] - Light Media, a key component of both ETFs, saw its stock price surge by 20%, contributing over one-third to the gains of both ETFs [4] Industry Insights - The "618" e-commerce event showed significant growth in the trendy toy sector, with over 2,400 merchants achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth. Sales of gaming and esports derivatives increased by over 80% [4] - A report indicated that 33 Chinese companies made it to the global mobile game publisher revenue list, collectively earning 2.02 billion USD, accounting for 36.6% of global revenue [5] Policy Support - The Zhejiang provincial government announced measures to support the international expansion of gaming companies, focusing on tax, financing, and platform promotion [5] Future Outlook - The content industry is entering a revaluation cycle, with AI empowerment and optimization of industry structure presenting significant commercial potential [6] - The rise of Z-generation consumers is expected to sustain long-term demand for IP products, with over 500 million users in China, predominantly female [7] Competitive Landscape - The gaming industry's competitive dynamics are improving, with product quality becoming the core differentiation factor. Leading companies are increasingly penetrating international markets [8] - The trend of going global is alleviating domestic market homogenization and optimizing resource allocation within the industry [8] Investment Opportunities - The current market sentiment and technological advancements in content creation and operation are providing strong support for the gaming and film sectors. Investors are encouraged to consider gaming ETF (516010) and film ETF (516620) for structural opportunities in the cultural media sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of LABUBU has significantly boosted the market presence of Pop Mart, elevating its founder Wang Ning to a prominent position in the industry and showcasing the potential of the IP-driven toy market in China [2][8][12]. Company Overview - Pop Mart, founded in 2010, has evolved into a major player in the toy industry, with a market capitalization exceeding 300 billion RMB, making it one of the few companies in the A-share market to achieve such a valuation [2][3]. - The company operates as an IP operator rather than a traditional toy manufacturer, focusing on the development and marketing of unique characters and stories [3][4]. LABUBU's Market Impact - LABUBU, a character from Pop Mart's "the Monsters" series, has become a cultural icon, driving significant sales and marketing initiatives, including collaborations with banks for promotional campaigns [2][8]. - The character's popularity has led to a surge in its resale value, with prices reaching thousands of RMB in secondary markets, earning it the nickname "plastic Maotai" [2][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, and an adjusted net profit of 3.4 billion RMB, up 185.9% [8]. - The overseas and Hong Kong-Macau business segment generated 5.07 billion RMB in revenue, marking a staggering growth of 375.2% and accounting for 38.9% of total revenue [8]. IP Development and Strategy - Pop Mart's initial strategy involved launching multiple IP series to build brand recognition, which later transitioned to a focus on deepening the value of key IPs like LABUBU [9][10]. - LABUBU's success is attributed to a combination of effective marketing, collaborations with fashion influencers, and a rich narrative background that resonates with consumers [10][12]. Industry Context - The rise of LABUBU reflects a broader trend in the Chinese IP industry, which has seen significant growth despite challenges, indicating a shift in consumer attitudes towards experiential and conceptual products [12][13]. - The success of LABUBU and other IP products suggests a potential for further innovation and market expansion within the Chinese IP landscape [13][14].

Group 1 - Three new consumer concept stocks, Bruker (00325.HK), Gu Ming (01364.HK), and Mixue Group (02097.HK), have been added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, effective from June 9 [1][2] - Following the announcement, Bruker saw an increase of 18.35% to HKD 187 per share, with a total market capitalization of HKD 46.61 billion; Mixue Group rose by 6.80% to HKD 573 per share, with a market cap of HKD 217.52 billion; Gu Ming increased by 2.64% to HKD 27.20 per share, with a market cap of HKD 64.69 billion [1] - The three companies have shown significant cumulative growth since their listings this year, with Bruker up over 200%, Mixue Group up over 180%, and Gu Ming up over 170% [1] Group 2 - New consumer stocks are considered a rare category among large consumers, characterized by high growth, strong cash flow, and broad market potential, making them attractive to institutional investors [3] - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about potential selling pressure from cornerstone investors or major shareholders in the coming months, as well as high valuations compared to larger consumer categories [3] - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience a peak in lock-up expirations from June to September 2025, with significant amounts of capital being released, which could impact stock prices [3] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding new consumer stocks, with some analysts expressing concerns about overvaluation and potential bubbles in the sector [4][5] - UBS downgraded Mixue Group from "Neutral" to "Sell," citing high valuations and challenges in overseas business, while domestic brokerages remain optimistic about the company's growth potential [5] - Morgan Stanley expressed confidence in the IP industry in China, highlighting companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Huang Jin as top picks, indicating a positive outlook for the new consumer sector [5][6] Group 4 - The IP product category is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 35% in sales and profits over the next three years, contrasting with traditional companies that may only see single-digit growth [6] - Analysts recommend a strategic approach to investing in Hong Kong's technology and new consumer sectors, emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between genuine growth and speculative trading [6]