Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted back to the Federal Reserve following President Trump's announcement regarding the successor to Chairman Powell, with a decision expected early next year [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump has indicated he has identified a successor for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with an announcement planned for early next year [1]. - Deutsche Bank noted that Powell could choose to remain on the board after his term as chairman ends in May 2026, despite the common belief that he would leave the Fed entirely [1]. - Historically, only two out of fifteen past Federal Reserve chairmen have chosen to remain on the board after their chairmanship, providing a significant context for Powell's potential decision [1]. Group 2: Historical Precedents - The first chairman to remain on the board after his term was Charles Hamlin, who served from 1914 and stayed for twenty years post-chairmanship [2]. - The second notable precedent is Marriner Eccles, who remained on the board after his chairmanship ended in 1948, partly due to his respect in the market and the president's inability to force him out [2]. Group 3: Future Implications for Powell - Powell may face a similar situation in 2026, where he could choose to stay on the board to protect the Fed's independence if the political environment threatens its monetary policy [3]. - The decision on whether Powell will remain on the board will largely depend on the nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman [3]. - There is significant attention from Wall Street regarding whether Powell will completely exit the Federal Reserve after his term ends, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting that Powell should resign from the board to avoid market confusion [3].

"作为一名职业公务员，哈姆林的动机是出于对机构的忠诚以及一种信念，即使命比头衔更重要。第二 个，也是更具相关性的先例是马里纳·埃克尔斯（Marriner Eccles），"Reid说。"在带领美联储度过大萧 条和二战后，埃克尔斯在1948年被杜鲁门总统排挤。他没有辞职，而是作为理事留任。杜鲁门更换了主 席，但要求他留在理事会，部分原因是埃克尔斯在市场上备受尊敬，部分原因是总统知道自己迫使埃克 尔斯离开的权力有限。埃克尔斯留下来是为了捍卫央行的独立性。" 因此，Reid总结道： "鲍威尔在2026年可能面临类似的时刻。如果政治环境被视为威胁到美联储独立实施货币政 策的能力，他可能会选择效仿埃克尔斯的做法。通过保留其理事席位，他将在联邦公开市场 委员会（FOMC）保有一票表决权，尽管这种举动已经几十年未见了。这在很大程度上可能 取决于政府选择谁作为下一任美联储主席。" 德意志银行的Jim Reid表示，"普遍的假设是，一旦主席的领导任期结束，他们就会彻底离开美联储， 即使他们作为理事的单独任命还有数年时间。传统支持这种观点。但法律并非如此。" Reid补充说，"而这就是事情变得有趣的地方。鲍威尔的主席任期可能在2 ...

Group 1 - The probability of Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman has risen to 80%, indicating a potential fundamental shift in the Fed's approach from an independent technical institution focused on inflation to a politically influenced policy tool [1] - Hassett is known for his "aggressive rate cuts," and if he assumes leadership, the market may need to reprice a new Fed that is extremely dovish and may tolerate higher inflation, which could erode the dollar's interest rate advantage [2] - The Bank of Japan has unexpectedly signaled a strong likelihood of interest rate hikes, with an 80% probability of a December increase, which could lead to significant capital returning to Japan, given its status as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at approximately $1.2 trillion [3] Group 2 - The divergence in interest rates between Japan's potential hikes and U.S. rate cuts creates a "scissors gap" that is unfavorable for the dollar [4] - Concerns are growing among global investors regarding U.S. Treasuries, traditionally viewed as a safe haven, as they failed to hedge against stock market declines during high inflation in 2022, raising fears that the belief in the Fed as an inflation fighter may be replaced by a growth-centric philosophy under Hassett [5] - The potential decoupling of inflation expectations could erode the intrinsic value of U.S. Treasuries, threatening their status as the king of collateral, which supports over $60 trillion in financial derivatives [5] Group 3 - Smart money is already taking action, with gold prices nearing historical highs and central bank gold purchases remaining strong, while positions in the yen have significantly increased, indicating a shift towards traditional safe-haven assets amid uncertainties in the dollar system [6] - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1960s-70s when the Fed maintained low rates under political pressure, failing to curb inflation expectations, which ultimately led to severe inflation consequences [7] - The ongoing global discussion surrounding Hassett's potential leadership serves as a comprehensive stress test of the dollar's hegemonic system, questioning the resilience of U.S. institutions, policy credibility, and global leadership, as the foundational pillars of Fed independence, Treasury security, and dollar stability face scrutiny [8]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump regarding the nomination of a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified market focus on the future direction of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Powell's Potential Continuation - Analyst Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank suggests that even if Powell's term as chairman ends, he may still choose to remain as a Federal Reserve governor, a scenario that has historical precedents [1][2] - Powell's term as a governor extends until January 2028, which is beyond his chairmanship term ending in May 2026, allowing him the legal right to continue serving [1][2] - Historical examples include Charles Hamlin, who served as a governor for 20 years after stepping down as chairman, and Marriner Eccles, who remained a governor after being replaced as chairman, both highlighting a commitment to the Federal Reserve's mission [2][3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Independence - Wall Street is currently highly focused on the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially following recent market volatility and the upcoming nomination of Powell's successor [4] - The S&P 500 index has maintained a double-digit increase for the year, reflecting investor reliance on Federal Reserve policies and the institution's significant role in the global financial system [4] - As the nomination approaches, the market will closely monitor the implications of the new chairman on monetary policy and market stability [4]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry criticizes the Federal Reserve, suggesting it is an unnecessary institution that could be replaced by the Treasury, claiming that managing the Fed is "the easiest job in the world" [1][4] Group 1: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Burry expresses a "sick view" regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, stating that it has caused significant damage over the past century [2] - He warns that any easing measures by the Fed could "kill" savers and fixed-income investors, indicating that there is currently no justification for lowering interest rates [3][4] Group 2: Potential Political Influence - Burry speculates that if Trump were to exert more control over the Federal Reserve, it could lead to its "end," suggesting that such a scenario would make the Fed widely unpopular [3] - He emphasizes that the roles of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are largely interchangeable, arguing that their functions have become almost identical [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Since returning to the public eye, Burry has issued warnings about a potential bubble in the U.S. stock market and has taken short positions against companies like Nvidia and Palantir [4]

"在带领美联储度过大萧条和二战之后，埃克尔斯于1948年被杜鲁门总统排挤卸任主席。但他没有辞职，而是选择 留任理事。杜鲁门虽替换了他的主席职位，却邀请其继续留在理事会，部分原因是埃克尔斯深受市场尊重，另一部 分则是总统深知其无权强制埃克尔斯离职。埃克尔斯选择留任以捍卫央行独立性。" 首位是美联储首任主席查尔斯・哈姆林。他于1914年上任，1916年任期届满后，仍以理事会成员身份留任长达二十 年。 Reid表示："作为职业公务员，哈姆林的动机源于对机构的忠诚，他相信使命远比头衔重要。第二位——也更具参 考意义的先例是马里纳・埃克尔斯。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普上周末期间表示已确定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者人选，这令美联储成为了近 期市场的关注焦点。周二，特朗普进一步指出，计划在明年初公布提名人选。 对此，德意志银行周二指出，美联储主席在任期结束后，仍可继续履行其作为美联储理事的任命，鲍威尔可能面临 类似情况。 该行分析师Jim Reid表示："市场普遍认为，一旦主席任期结束，即便其作为理事的任期仍有多年剩余，也会彻底退 出美联储。这一观点符合传统惯例，但并无法律依据。" "这正是问题的有趣之处。鲍威尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, a well-known short-seller, argues that the Federal Reserve is unnecessary for the U.S. economy, suggesting that its functions could be effectively managed by the Treasury Department [1][2]. Group 1: Burry's Critique of the Federal Reserve - Burry claims that the Federal Reserve's role is "the simplest job in the world" and believes it has caused significant damage over the past century [1][2]. - He expresses a radical view that if former President Trump were to take control of the Federal Reserve, it could lead to the institution's downfall, as public sentiment would turn against it [2]. - Burry questions the rationale behind the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, stating there is no current justification for lowering rates [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Fed Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in December, despite rising inflation pressures, which Burry warns could harm savers and fixed-income investors [2][3]. - Burry's short positions on high-valuation tech stocks like Nvidia and Palantir could be negatively impacted by Fed rate cuts, as these stocks are sensitive to interest rate changes [3].

Core Viewpoint - The speculation regarding the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve has intensified following President Trump's recent statements, with a potential announcement expected in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chairperson Selection - Trump indicated he plans to announce the new Federal Reserve chairperson in early 2026, which contrasts with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's earlier suggestion of a timeline around Christmas [1] - The current chair, Jerome Powell, is set to see his term expire in May next year, and there is speculation he may remain on the board [1] - The candidate list has narrowed from 11 to 5, with potential candidates including Hassett, Fed Governor Waller, and Vice Chair Bowman [1][4] Group 2: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett - Kevin Hassett, 63, holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has previously served as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve and a professor at Columbia University [4] - Hassett has been a proponent of monetary easing to stimulate growth and aligns closely with Trump's economic views, advocating for tax cuts, fiscal expansion, deregulation, and low interest rates [4] - Analysts suggest that if Hassett is appointed, he may lower the federal funds rate from the current range of 3.75% to 4% to below 3% without significantly threatening the Fed's independence [4] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Citic Securities emphasizes that the unemployment rate will be crucial for the Fed's decision on interest rates in December, with expectations of a potential rate cut of 25 basis points [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently at 87.6%, reflecting a growing expectation among market participants [5]

继警示AI泡沫，并接连向英伟达、特斯拉等股票开火后，知名做空投资者、素有"大空头"之称的迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）日前又瞄准 了新目标：美联储。 他抛出了一个新颖且劲爆的观点： 美国根本不需要美联储 。 Burry因在2008年金融危机前精准做空抵押贷款支持证券而声名鹊起，迈克尔·刘易斯（Michael Lewis）的著作《大空头》和奥斯卡获奖 影片《大空头》都记录了他的这一交易。 今年10月底，Burry在沉寂数年后重返公众视野。自那以来，他多次预警股市泡沫风险，披露了做空英伟达等AI股的新仓位，并推出了 Substack 付费通讯专栏，以向外界自由输出其投资观点。 周二，Burry在一档播客节目中阐述了其非主流立场。他表示， 美联储的工作是"世界上最简单的" 。 当被问及对美联储独立性的看法时，Burry表示，自己对此持 "偏激观点"，并补充道， 若特朗普决意加强对美联储的掌控，这家央行的终 结或许即将到来 。 Burry表示，他相信货币政策可以由财政部指导。他对比了美联储与财政部当前的职能，并暗示二者的角色在很大程度上可相互替代。 "我的意思是，他们几乎已经是同一个部门了。"他表示。"我 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for the Federal Reserve to transition under new leadership, emphasizing the importance of reform and a broader perspective in its operations [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Transition - Economist Mohamed El-Erian advocates for the Federal Reserve to step back and focus on broader economic issues rather than detailed analyses [2]. - El-Erian highlights the need for the Federal Reserve to acknowledge its past mistakes and improve its compliance culture [2]. - The White House has been transparent about potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, including Kevin Hassett and others from within the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts are preparing for a restructured Federal Reserve, with Hassett seen as a likely candidate for Trump's support [4]. - There is a significant increase in market expectations for a rate cut in December, with the probability rising from 50% to 87% according to CME Group data [4]. - El-Erian expresses concern over the volatility in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's actions, indicating a need for more predictability and stability [4]. Group 3: Independence Concerns - Investors are closely monitoring the situation to ensure that the turmoil does not threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve [4]. - UBS's chief economist warns that Hassett's leadership could resemble the problematic relationship between President Nixon and Fed Chair Burns in the 1970s [5]. - Deutsche Bank notes that a potential infringement on the Federal Reserve's independence is a risk, particularly with upcoming Supreme Court hearings regarding the dismissal of a Fed governor [6].