事实上，在以色列和伊朗爆发冲突导致油价在不到一周的时间内飙升8.5%之前，由贝利领导的货币政策委员会就被认为会保持谨慎的基调。 摩根大通资产管理公司（JPMorgan Asset Management）全球市场分析师扎拉•诺克斯（Zara Nokes）表示，英国通胀率仍"高得令人不安"。 她说："中东紧张 局势的升级，以及由此给油价带来的上行压力，只会加剧英国央行对过快放松利率的担忧。" "货币政策委员会在8月份再次开会时将面临更艰难的选择，因为通胀依然居高不下，而且有证据表明，劳动力市场明显在降温。从理论上讲，劳动力市场的 恶化应该会给通胀带来下行压力，但在硬数据中有明确迹象表明这一点之前，英国央行应该小心，不要宣称已经战胜了通胀，尤其是考虑到不确定的地缘政 治气候。"诺克斯说。 英国央行表示，近期全球局势发展未对6月维持利率的决定产生重大影响，且初步员工分析显示，关税冲击对全球GDP的直接影响可能比5月预期的更小。英 国央行行长贝利表示，尽管今天维持利率不变，但利率仍处在逐步下降的路径上。 会议纪要显示，随着就业市场继续宽松，委员会"预计今年剩余时间薪资增长将显著放缓"。英国央行言辞偏鸽，称"劳动力市场出 ...

英国央行维持利率不变，但可能很快再次降息 金十数据6月19日讯，据外媒报道，英国央行周四宣布维持基准利率不变，紧随美联储步伐。同时，英 国央行预计在未来几个月将进一步降息。自2024年中期以来，随着通胀压力开始缓解，英国央行一直在 逐步降息，但目前也面临一个两难局面。英国5月的主要通胀率仍高达3.4%，远高于2%的目标。能源价 格上涨及特朗普关税措施的影响，也令部分政策制定者对继续大幅降息感到不安。在英国央行公布利率 决定前，市场预计下一次0.25个百分点的降息可能将在9月进行，但未完全定价，并预计在12月再降一 次。利率决议公布后，交易员加大了对英国央行降息的押注，预计今年还会再降息50个基点；预计8月 降息的可能性达80%。 ...

英国央行：6名委员投票维持利率不变，3名委员支持降息0.25个百分点。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the risk of high-positioned thematic stocks, indicating a significant drop in sectors such as nuclear power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, with over 4,600 stocks declining and 20 hitting the daily limit down [1] - The article mentions that the market is under pressure due to various factors including month-end settlement, quarterly institutional rebalancing, new quantitative regulations in July, and the mid-year reporting window [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged, with a median forecast for a 50 basis point cut by the end of 2024 [3] Group 2 - Reports indicate that U.S. officials are preparing for potential strikes against Iran, adding uncertainty to the Middle East situation, which could severely impact global financial markets [4] - Tencent has launched a new short drama mini-program called "Short Drama," which has positively influenced the A-share short drama concept sector, leading to significant stock price increases for companies like Baida Qiancheng and Zhangyue Technology [6] - The article notes that the oil and petrochemical sectors are the only ones showing gains, while industries such as textiles, cosmetics, light manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals are experiencing declines [9]

瑞士央行行长：当利率已降至零时，进一步降息的难度将大大增加。 ...

6月19日，菲律宾央行将关键利率下调25个基点至5.25%，符合预期。 ...

Group 1: US Monetary Policy - Macquarie now expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, followed by another 25 basis point cut in 2026, revising previous predictions of a 50 basis point cut in 2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time in June, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials expecting no cuts this year has risen to seven [1] - Powell emphasized uncertainty in the current economic situation, suggesting a wait-and-see approach, and anticipates inflation driven by tariffs to rise in the coming months [1] Group 2: Global Economic Measures - Thailand's Finance Minister plans to propose a 110 billion Thai Baht project to boost the economy next week [2] - The Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam indicated a potential adjustment of the credit growth target to 16% to promote economic growth if necessary [2] - Brazil's central bank unexpectedly raised rates by 25 basis points to 15%, while the market had anticipated a hold at 14.75%, with expectations that the tightening cycle will end [2] Group 3: European and Asian Monetary Policies - ECB Governing Council member Panetta stated that the European Central Bank will continue to make decisions based on each meeting's circumstances without committing to a clear monetary policy path in advance [2] - South Korea's Ministry of Finance proposed a supplementary government budget plan totaling 30.5 trillion Korean Won, including 20.2 trillion Won in spending and 10.3 trillion Won in tax revenue revisions [2] - The Swedish central bank revised its policy rate forecast for Q3 2025 to an average of 1.99%, down from 2.25%, and for Q4 2025 to 1.92%, also down from 2.25%, indicating the possibility of another rate cut this year [2] Group 4: Russian Economic Outlook - The first deputy CEO of Sberbank expects Russia's GDP to grow by 1% to 2% in 2025, stating that the Ruble is overvalued with a reasonable exchange rate expected between 90 to 95 Rubles per dollar [3] - There is a significant possibility that the benchmark interest rate in Russia will decrease from the current 20% to 17% by the end of this year [3] - For economic recovery, it is suggested that the key interest rate should remain between 12% and 14% [3]

·美联储继续维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变鲍威尔：观望 ·英国5月CPI同比升幅小幅放缓 ·出口大增提振新西兰经济复苏步伐 ·日本企业不改长期投资计划 ·巴西央行意外加息25个基点 【市场资讯】 ·美国联邦储备委员会18日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。声明表示，美国经济前景仍 具较大不确定性，联邦公开市场委员会将继续监控风险因素，并准备视情况调整货币政策立场。同时， 美联储发布的经济预测显示，美联储官员对美国今明两年的经济增长预期均作出下调。其中，今年经济 增速预测中值从此前的1.7%降至1.4%。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔表示，特朗普政府的关税政策对终端消费者的影响已开始显现，预计今后数月将更 为明显；继续保持观望的决策立场。 【资讯导读】 ·据日本媒体报道，日本制铁公司18日宣布已完成对美国钢铁公司的收购，将其纳为全资子公司。 ·美国财政部数据显示，中国4月持有的美国国债为7570亿美元，较3月的7650亿美元有所减少；英国持 有量为8080亿美元，较3月的7790亿美元有所增加；日本持有量为1.13 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a long-term intention to maintain interest rates unchanged, with no immediate rate cuts expected, as economic conditions remain stable and uncertain factors persist [2][3]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slow cooling, with no immediate triggers for the Federal Reserve to intervene, despite concerns over tariffs and their impact on inflation [3][4]. - The unemployment rate has remained stable for three consecutive months, which allows the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high as a measure against potential inflation [3][5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - Recent inflation data has not raised alarms, with core inflation in May remaining below expectations for the fourth consecutive month, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices [3][6]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may not lower borrowing costs until at least September, with traders betting on multiple rate cuts later in the year [2][3]. Federal Reserve Predictions - Upcoming economic and interest rate forecasts are expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's thinking, particularly following President Trump's tariff announcements [4][5]. - Analysts note a wide range of possibilities in the Federal Reserve's predictions, with some suggesting that a significant increase in the unemployment rate could lead to rate cuts before the fourth quarter [5][6]. Policy Uncertainty - Federal Reserve officials are considering the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, which may lead them to maintain their current forecasts without significant changes [7][8]. - The timing of the Federal Reserve's next actions will depend on how long Trump's policies take to reflect in economic data and the strength of recession concerns that arise from these data [7][8].

瑞典央行将基准 利率下调至2.00%。 ...