Market Overview - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 7, with Shanghai gold futures at 783.72 CNY per gram, down 0.08%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9192.00 CNY per kilogram, up 1.29% [1] - International precious metals also displayed mixed performance, with COMEX gold priced at 3430.80 USD per ounce, down 0.12%, while COMEX silver was at 38.24 USD per ounce, up 0.80% [1] Price Data - The opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals on August 7 were as follows: - Shanghai Gold: Opened at 782.28 CNY, peaked at 785.00 CNY, and bottomed at 781.08 CNY per gram [2] - Shanghai Silver: Opened at 9163.00 CNY, peaked at 9244.00 CNY, and bottomed at 9155.00 CNY per kilogram [2] - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3431.80 USD, peaked at 3449.00 USD, and bottomed at 3430.00 USD per ounce [2] - COMEX Silver: Opened at 37.94 USD, peaked at 38.24 USD, and bottomed at 37.94 USD per ounce [2] Economic Factors - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 42 billion USD of 10-year bonds, with a bid yield of 4.255%, the lowest since December of the previous year, indicating weak buyer demand, particularly from international buyers [3] - The auction results led to a rise in bond yields and a decline in the dollar index, which supported gold prices [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook's comments on non-farm payroll data adjustments heightened market expectations for potential changes in monetary policy [3] Market Sentiment - On August 6, COMEX gold experienced high volatility, closing at 3431.8 USD per ounce, down 0.08%, while domestic SHFE gold closed at 781.96 CNY per gram, down 0.29% [4] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a dovish outlook, suggesting that gold prices may continue to rise in the short term, especially if trade negotiations do not yield expected results [4]

换资前言： 投资市场始终存在四个核心层次：先守住本金，再控制风险，继而赚取收益，最终实现长期稳定的持续 赢利。不必因单日盈亏论成败 —— 盈利是偶然还是必然？靠运气还是真本事？市场的幸存者，终究是 那些能穿越周期、长期稳定赢利的人。交易的本质，正是养成好习惯并严格执行计划，一次严谨的交易 离不开稳定的心态、合理的仓位与扎实的技术三者支撑。合作从不强求，只愿双向奔赴：机会永远留给 有准备的人，一次对的选择往往胜过百倍盲目的努力，若你恰好需要专业指引，而我刚好深耕于此，彼 此信任，便有望共赴可期的收益。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（8月7日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3370关口附近。现货黄金价格在周三下跌 0.34%，收报每盎司3369.19美元，此前一日曾触及近两周高点3390关口。这一回落主要是投资者在近期 上涨后的获利了结行为所致。黄金在上周五美国就业数据疲软后连续三日上涨，市场避险情绪一度高 涨。然而，随着经济数据发布进入相对平静期，避险需求有所减弱，部分投资者选择锁定利润，导致金 价出现短期回调。这种技术性调整在黄金市场中并不鲜见，尤其是在缺乏重大经济 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to high gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, a decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing index, increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and rising risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday as a correction of the previous decline. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak copper demand [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Alumina prices are likely to be weak in the short term, while casting aluminum alloy shows good fundamentals [36]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a range - bound movement, with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disruptions [65]. - For the nickel industry, the nickel ore price is stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation. Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the future trend of nickel sulfate needs further attention [80]. - Tin prices have strong resilience. Supply - side issues remain unresolved, and if the situation drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange - related warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered as deliverable goods, doubling from last month, indicating active arbitrage and strong investment demand [3]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut (90% probability of a rate cut in September). Trump's announcement of tariff hikes on countries like India also boosted risk - aversion sentiment, leading to an increase in the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF for two consecutive days, supporting the strong performance of gold prices [3]. Copper - Copper prices corrected the previous decline on Monday and Tuesday. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized, and COMEX copper's decline may slightly increase the valuations of other copper markets. However, weak copper demand remains a concern [15]. - The latest prices and daily changes of various copper futures and spot products are provided, including Shanghai copper futures, LME copper, and copper spot prices in different regions [16][24]. - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, refined - scrap price differences, and warehouse receipt data are presented [28][31][32]. Aluminum - Macro - level drivers for aluminum have weakened. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but low absolute inventories support aluminum prices, which are expected to face pressure and fluctuate [36]. - Alumina production capacity is high and in surplus, with rising inventories. The warehouse receipt issue may be resolved in August, and prices are likely to be weak [36]. - Casting aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, with strong support from scrap aluminum prices on the supply side and decent short - term demand [36]. Zinc - Zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and processing fees are expected to increase this month. Mine supply is abundant, and inventories have been accumulating. Demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to remain range - bound [65]. - The latest prices and changes of zinc futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [66][71][74]. Nickel - The August first - phase nickel product benchmark price in Indonesia has been released. Nickel ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation [80]. - Nickel iron prices have been slowly declining in the past two weeks, with some support from the supply side due to the expected increase in steel mill production in August [80]. - Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the stability of the current price level needs further verification. Attention should be paid to whether demand can pick up in August [80]. Tin - Tin prices rose slightly on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues from Myanmar's production resumption are uncertain, and if the situation persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - The latest prices and changes of tin futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [97][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term supply - side disruptions exist, and production scheduling in August is expected to improve. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - The latest prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [113][115][119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by macro - level sentiment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [121]. - The latest prices of industrial silicon spot products, futures prices, and related data such as basis and price differences are provided [122][124].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index reflect a lack of clear direction amid changing interest rate expectations, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut by September from 35% to 91% [1][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Investor uncertainty regarding the macroeconomic fundamentals is evident, as weak US employment data has strengthened expectations for monetary easing, yet the Federal Reserve has not signaled a clear dovish stance [3] - The dollar is currently in a consolidation phase, with resistance around 99.20 and support at 98.50, indicating that investors are awaiting clearer signals, likely from upcoming CPI data [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - The nomination of key positions by Trump has raised concerns about the independence of policymakers, potentially affecting the transparency and forward guidance of monetary policy, which in turn impacts the dollar's value [3][4] - Future movements of the dollar will heavily depend on the Federal Reserve's stance; if inflation and unemployment data continue to weaken, a series of rate cuts may be initiated, breaking the current consolidation phase [4] Group 3: Currency Comparisons and Market Behavior - Despite the dollar's rise against the yen and slight weakening against the Swiss franc, the euro remains strong against the dollar, indicating a cautious market sentiment with funds opting for a wait-and-see approach rather than making significant bets [4] - The current state of the dollar reflects not only economic uncertainties but also a fragile trust in the global monetary system, raising questions about the dollar's role as a safe asset [4]

Group 1 - The current silver price is trading at $37.79 per ounce, with a daily high of $37.90 and a low of $37.72 [1][2] - The U.S. dollar index is around 98.79, indicating a stable currency environment [1] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve's Daly, which may influence interest rate expectations [1] Group 2 - Silver is a non-yielding asset, and its price is sensitive to interest rate expectations and macroeconomic signals [3] - President Trump is expected to nominate a new member to the FOMC, likely favoring a more dovish stance, which could increase the probability of interest rate cuts [3] - Trump's comments on potential tariffs on the semiconductor, chip, and pharmaceutical industries have heightened market risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven assets like silver [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that silver is in a consolidation phase after a short-term pullback, with the Bollinger Bands showing a tightening range [4] - The MACD indicator suggests a potential technical rebound if the DIFF line crosses above the DEA line, indicating weakening bearish momentum [4] - The price is expected to stabilize above the support level of $36.200, with a potential target of $38.800 if it holds above the Bollinger middle band [4]

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price is 9182 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1.19% and a trading volume of 372,060 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai is quoted at 9151 yuan/kg, showing a discount of 31 yuan/kg compared to the futures price [1] - Political uncertainty in the U.S. is heightened due to Trump's unpredictable actions, impacting market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - The power struggle and strategic confrontations within U.S. politics are amplifying divisions, particularly regarding spending legislation [2] - The government operation crisis is intensifying as the September 30 funding deadline approaches, with risks of a government shutdown if no agreement is reached [2] - Historical precedents indicate that similar political deadlocks have previously led to significant government shutdowns, such as the 35-day shutdown in 2018 [2] Group 3 - The Dazhou Futures report indicates that the U.S. ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and Trump plans to announce tariffs on drugs and chips, leading to an increase in silver prices [3] - The premium for silver in Shanghai has narrowed to around 382 yuan/kg, reflecting a cooling domestic sentiment [3] - The market is advised to focus on the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, with a strong bias towards silver prices under risk-averse conditions [3]

智通财经APP获悉， 黄金股早盘再度活跃，截至发稿，中国黄金国际(02099)涨3.77%，报71.5港元；招 金矿业(01818)涨3.52%，报21.74港元；山东黄金(01787)涨3.02%，报27.98港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨 2.16%，报10.89港元。 消息面上，美国ISM非制造业PMI意外回落以及特朗普关于美联储以及印度关税发言影响，黄金价格周 二晚间下探回升，一度触及每盎司3380美元高点。据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普于美国东部时间8月5 日，接受了媒体采访。在采访中，特朗普表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席。此外，特朗普称将在未 来一周内宣布药品关税。药品关税最初将很小，最终将达到250%。在谈及对印度关税时，特朗普发 出"威胁"，将在未来24小时内大幅提高印度关税。 此外，花旗调整了其对黄金的看跌预测，称受美国经济恶化和推动通胀的关税影响，黄金将在短期内上 涨至创纪录的高位。包括Max Layton在内的花旗分析师在周一的一份报告中表示，未来三个月，黄金价 格将在每盎司3300至3600美元之间波动，部分原因是美国进口关税平均水平高于此前预期的15%。这与 花旗在6月的观点形成鲜明对 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, international gold prices fluctuated at high levels, briefly surpassing $2300 per ounce, marking a new peak. The second half of 2025 presents mixed market sentiments regarding gold's trajectory, influenced by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and rising attractiveness of risk assets due to improved economic soft landing expectations [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicates that declining interest rates will support gold prices. As inflation cools and core CPI drops to around 3.1%, the Fed has signaled a potential interest rate cut cycle starting in 2025 [2][4] - A 25 basis point rate cut has already occurred, bringing the rate to 4.75%, with another cut anticipated within the year [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Financial Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, along with emerging market debt risks, contribute to persistent risk aversion among investors. This environment enhances gold's appeal as a traditional hedge against risk [5][6] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 336 tons in the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year increase. Major buyers include China, India, and Russia, driven by diversification of foreign reserves and inflation hedging [8] Group 5: Supply Constraints - Despite high gold prices encouraging some mine restarts, global gold supply is projected to grow only modestly, with an estimated production of 3600 tons in 2025, reflecting a mere 1.3% increase year-on-year. Supply constraints are influenced by environmental regulations, rising costs, and aging mines [8]

Group 1 - Geopolitical conflicts have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a more than 4% increase in gold-related ETFs, while the S&P oil and gas ETF fell nearly 3%, indicating a sharp adjustment in risk expectations [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has strengthened to 78% according to CME, and central banks, particularly China, have been continuously increasing gold reserves for 18 consecutive months [3] - Historical data shows that extreme divergence between gold and oil and gas often signals an impending market shift, suggesting that the current asset reallocation reflects both short-term emotional responses and long-term inflation concerns [4] Group 2 - The surge in U.S. crude oil inventories and the increasing penetration of electric vehicles are suppressing demand expectations, while geopolitical premiums are being realized ahead of time [4] - Smart money is showing a preference for gold mining stock ETFs due to their greater elasticity, while there has been a significant increase in bearish options positions in the oil and gas sector [4] - The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has strengthened, indicating a shift in investor behavior as risk aversion becomes the dominant market theme [4]

从宏观层面看，地缘政治风险上升显著推高了白银和铂金的避险溢价。俄罗斯是铂族金属的重要出口国，俄 乌战争持续影响俄罗斯铂族金属的出口，同时中东局势动荡威胁霍尔木兹海峡等关键矿产运输通道，叠加美 欧对关键矿产的出口管制，限制了白银、铂金等战略资源流通。中国银行研究院研究员吴丹表示，地缘政治 冲突以及全球经济不确定性加剧了市场避险情绪，同时，特朗普频繁施压导致美联储降息预期升温、美元走 势承压，加剧了市场对供给中断的担忧，并触发囤货行为，进一步推高贵金属价格。 记者在北京多家贵金属交易场所探访了解到，近期贵金属价格出现了大幅上涨，销售也十分火热。北京天雅 珠宝城一家铂金专卖店的销售人员说，"今年以来铂金价格上涨明显，吸引了大量消费者来店里选购，线上直 播间也咨询不断"。此外，一些主营黄金饰品的店铺也在醒目位置开设了铂金专柜。现场观察显示，铂金硬度 高、不易氧化，颜色属于银灰色，制成的饰品以镶嵌钻石、彩宝的戒指为主，款式简约时尚，吸引了许多年 轻消费者。除了增售铂金产品，一些店铺还在展台里增加了500克和1000克规格的投资银条，并提供回收服 务。 贵金属零售市场火热的背后是铂金、白银的价格涨幅显著。上海黄金交易所公 ...