abc 2025 年 12 月 24 日 Global Research 高测股份 光伏业务市占率持续提升叠加人形机器人业务 的潜在新增长动力；重申买入评级 光伏业务有望反转；人形机器人业务带来中长期上行空间 受出货量增长推动，Q325公司切片服务业务收入同比增长148%。尽管行业 供应过剩，公司在硅片市场的份额从2024年的4.6%扩大至Q325的10.8%。 叠加公司对电池片厂商和垂直一体化巨头进一步渗透，我们认为公司成本优 势已被广泛认可，这将在行业盈利能力持续承压的情况下为公司带来更多市 占率上行空间。此外，在行业反内卷推动价格企稳的背景下，我们认为公司 通过降本增效或实现利润率回升。我们预计公司2025年实现盈亏平 衡，2026/27年净利润达2.19亿元/3.56亿元，得益于金刚线和硅片切片服务 业务市占率和利润率均进一步提升。 人形机器人业务进展 基于已有技术积累的可拓展性，公司已进军人形机器人零部件/设备领 域：1）自4月产品发布以来，灵巧手用钨丝腱绳业务已确认来自多个国内客 户的收入；2）丝杠磨床设备研发进展顺利推进（拟于春节前后进行内 测）；3）公司还与海外一线客户合作开发减速器产品。我们 ...

2025年，光伏制造业处于周期低谷之际，"反内卷"成为全行业的核心共识与转型之路。光伏主产业链价 格在2025年下半年逐步见底甚至改善，全行业自律减产，推动硅料、硅片等环节价格企稳回升，光伏主 产业链上市企业积极自救，普遍实施降本增效，并在第三季度实现利润减亏。 在政策定调与企业自救驱动下，光伏"反内卷"成果逐步显现，行业告别过去装机规模竞争，正进入更强 调技术与质量的价值比拼阶段。 然而，价格回暖仅是行业修复的第一步。当前产业链复苏基础仍不牢固，终端需求尚未全面恢复，产能 过剩的根本矛盾有待解决。 市场监管总局近日在安徽合肥召开合规指导会，通报价格违法问题与风险，行业正处在"反内卷"的关键 节点。会议明确指出，当前光伏行业存在的低质竞争、同质化重复建设等"内卷式"竞争行为，已经让企 业普遍面临盈利困境，扭曲了市场资源配置。随着反内卷治理进入深水区，2026年或将成为光伏产业逆 转关键年份，检验光伏"反内卷"成效、推动产能实质性出清的攻坚之年。 产业链价格企稳，"反内卷"成果显现 今年7月以来，多部门政策部署层层递进，国家行业协会及企业协同推进，政策围绕控产能、控价格、 提标准等多重方向落地，引导光伏产业迈向 ...

2026年或为光伏"反内卷"攻坚年 2025年，光伏制造业处于周期低谷之际，"反内卷"成为全行业的核心共识与转型之路。光伏主产业链价 格在2025年下半年逐步见底甚至改善，全行业自律减产，推动硅料、硅片等环节价格企稳回升，光伏主 产业链上市企业积极自救，普遍实施降本增效，并在第三季度实现利润减亏。 在政策定调与企业自救驱动下，光伏"反内卷"成果逐步显现，行业告别过去装机规模竞争，正进入更强 调技术与质量的价值比拼阶段。 然而，价格回暖仅是行业修复的第一步。当前产业链复苏基础仍不牢固，终端需求尚未全面恢复，产能 过剩的根本矛盾有待解决。 市场监管总局近日在安徽合肥召开合规指导会，通报价格违法问题与风险，行业正处在"反内卷"的关键 节点。会议明确指出，当前光伏行业存在的低质竞争、同质化重复建设等"内卷式"竞争行为，已经让企 业普遍面临盈利困境，扭曲了市场资源配置。随着反内卷治理进入深水区，2026年或将成为光伏产业逆 转关键年份，检验光伏"反内卷"成效、推动产能实质性出清的攻坚之年。 产业链价格企稳，"反内卷"成果显现 今年7月以来，多部门政策部署层层递进，国家行业协会及企业协同推进，政策围绕控产能、控价格、 提 ...

文 | 赶碳号科技 12月26日，权威媒体新华社、人民日报等均报道了光伏行业的一则重磅新闻，标题为《市场监管总局开展规范光伏行业价格竞争秩序合规指导》。正文如 下： 12月26日，市场监管总局在安徽合肥对光伏行业开展价格竞争秩序合规指导。 市场监管总局通报了光伏行业价格违法问题和风险，并指出，当前光伏行业存在的低质竞争、同质化重复建设等"内卷式"竞争行为，让企业普遍面临盈利 困境，扭曲了市场资源配置，抑制了企业在技术创新与产品升级上的投入意愿，形成"劣币驱逐良币"效应。 市场监管总局强调，全行业要充分认识整治光伏行业"内卷式"竞争的重要性。光伏企业要依法依规开展生产经营，严禁价格串通、价格欺诈等不正当价格 行为；坚决杜绝虚假宣传、商业贿赂等不正当竞争行为。发电企业要切实承担起应负责任，在光伏项目招标中坚持优质优价，加强对产品质量的要求。行 业协会要切实履行自律职能，引导企业通过创新提升、质量优化和服务升级实现共赢，共同推动形成健康有序、可持续发展的行业生态。 市场监管总局将通过加大产品质量监督力度、加强价格和反不正当竞争执法等手段，严厉查处违法违规行为，切实维护市场公平竞争秩序，推动光伏行业 规范健康可持续发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase by multiple silicon wafer companies signals a shift from "price wars" to "rational collaboration" within the photovoltaic industry, indicating a potential turning point for the sector [1][9]. Group 1: Price Increase and Industry Dynamics - Major silicon wafer companies, including Longi Green Energy, have collectively raised prices by an average of 12% as of December 25, 2025, marking a significant industry self-regulation signal [1][9]. - The price increase is driven by several factors: rising costs of upstream polysilicon, supply contraction due to production cuts, and a recovery in demand from downstream battery manufacturers [1][9]. Group 2: Industry Recovery and Challenges - The photovoltaic industry has undergone a painful "self-purification" process over the past two years, with the current focus on "anti-involution" highlighting insufficient progress in industry cleansing [2][10]. - "Component pricing" is identified as a critical factor for the success of the anti-involution efforts, which involves the ability to pass increased costs from upstream to downstream buyers [2][11]. Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - Upstream polysilicon and silicon wafer sectors have begun to recover, with some polysilicon companies achieving profitability by Q3 2025 [11]. - The midstream battery segment is experiencing price increases, while the downstream photovoltaic component sector remains under pressure, with only a 1.91% price increase from June to mid-December 2025, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [12]. - The industry is expected to enter a phase of "fundamental verification," with the fourth-quarter financial reports being crucial for confirming continued profitability improvements [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price increases in silicon wafers and components, driven by strong pricing power and a shift towards higher quality production, with expectations for improved profitability in 2026 [2][3][5] Group 1: Market Performance - Several leading photovoltaic companies, including GCL-Poly, Junda, and Sungrow, saw their stock prices surge, with GCL-Poly and Junda hitting the daily limit, while others like LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar also experienced notable gains [1] - Various photovoltaic ETFs, such as the Photovoltaic ETF Index Fund and Photovoltaic Leader ETF, reported increases of over 2%, with year-to-date performance showing significant growth, e.g., the Photovoltaic ETF has risen by 31.25% [2] Group 2: Price Trends - Major silicon wafer manufacturers have collectively raised their prices, with 183N wafers priced at 1.4 yuan per piece and 210N wafers at 1.7 yuan per piece, reflecting an average increase of 12% [2] - The average transaction price for N-type G10L single crystal silicon wafers increased by 2.56% week-on-week, while N-type G12R wafers saw a 9.17% rise [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The photovoltaic industry has faced a continuous loss trend for eight consecutive quarters, with a projected 33% workforce reduction in 2024, leading to an increase in average interest-bearing debt ratio from 23% to 31% [4] - The industry is undergoing a transition from rapid capacity expansion to a focus on quality and efficiency, necessitating technological upgrades and cost control to manage raw material price fluctuations [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is being implemented to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities and ensure the stable continuation of high-quality production [5]

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 26 日 强于大市 光伏行业动态点评 产业链涨价成趋势，终端开始接受高价组件 光伏'反内卷'分为两条具体路线，'推动落后产能有序退出'、'新增优 质产能平稳接续'正在稳步推进中，表观层面产业链积极挺价，央国企也已 积极响应，看好高效电池组件溢价；维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 《电力设备与新能源行业 12 月第 4 周周报》 20251221 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电力设备 证券分析师：武佳雄 jiaxiong.wu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523070001 证券分析师：顾真 投资建议 光伏'反内卷'稳步推进，'推动落后产能有序退出'、'新增优质产 能平稳接续'正在进行中，表观层面产业链积极挺价，央国企也已积极 响应，看好高效电池组件溢价。推荐钧达股份、天合光能、晶澳科技、 晶科能源、隆基绿能，建议关注通威股份、协鑫科技、大全能源、双良 节能、弘元绿能。 评级面临的主要风险 原材料价格出现不利波动；国际贸易摩擦风险；新技术进展不达预期； 新能源政策风险；消纳风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The solar photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price increases for silicon wafers, driven by rising upstream silicon material costs and supply constraints, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for wafer manufacturers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Four leading silicon wafer companies have collectively raised prices, with 183N wafers priced at 1.4 yuan per piece, 210RN at 1.5 yuan, and 210N at 1.7 yuan, averaging a 12% increase [1]. - The average price increase for various silicon wafer models ranges from 3.3% to 9.8% this week, with expectations of further price hikes due to low shipping willingness among manufacturers [1][2]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Market Dynamics - The price of polysilicon, a key raw material for wafer production, has risen above 65,000 yuan per ton, reflecting over a 20% increase from previous transaction prices, significantly impacting wafer production costs [2]. - Polysilicon accounts for 48% of the production cost of silicon wafers, making it a critical factor in pricing and profitability for wafer manufacturers [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Policy Support - The solar industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with major polysilicon companies voluntarily reducing production, leading to a 29.6% year-on-year decline in output from January to October [2]. - A joint initiative by ten leading companies to establish a solar storage platform aims to stabilize prices and support the recovery of polysilicon and wafer prices through market-driven mechanisms [2][3]. Group 4: Company Insights - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) is highlighted for its competitive advantage in granular silicon and low energy consumption, with a target price of 1.54 HKD due to expected price increases [4]. - TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ), a leader in large-size wafers, is expected to benefit from price increases due to its strong price transmission capabilities [4]. - Jinyang New Energy (01121) is involved in upgrading production lines to enhance efficiency and competitiveness in the market [4].

光伏产业链传来重磅消息。12月25日下午，市场消息称，四家头部硅片企业联合大幅上调报价，183N 硅片报1.4元/片、210RN报1.5元/片、210N报1.7元/片，平均涨幅达12%，有记者从多家硅片厂商人士已 证实该消息。业内普遍认为，上游硅料报价大幅上调(主流新单报价超6.5万元/吨)是本次涨价的核心驱 动力。 根据行业咨询机构InfoLink的数据，本周各型号硅片均价涨幅在3.3%—9.8%之间。该机构指出，在多数 硅片企业预期价格仍有进一步上调空间的情况下，现阶段发货意愿明显偏低，市场普遍采取控货策略。 整体而言，在自律议题持续延伸的情况下，短期内硅片价格不排除维持偏强走势。InfoLink数据暂未反 映12月25日的最新调价情况。 相关概念股： 协鑫科技(03800)：12月，交银国际发布研报称，看好协鑫科技(03800)在颗粒硅盈利优势明显，低电耗 符合政策导向，行业"反内卷"推动多晶硅价格大涨，产能收储若能落地将推动价格进一步上涨，目标价 1.54港元。该行予内地新能源与公用事业行业领先评级，2025年在上半年政策推动一轮抢装后，该行预 期全年内地风/光的装机旺季将较往年温和，但维持全年装机总 ...

光伏产业链传来重磅消息。12月25日下午，市场消息称，四家头部硅片企业联合大幅上调报价，183N 硅片报1.4元/片、210RN报1.5元/片、210N报1.7元/片，平均涨幅达12%，有记者从多家硅片厂商人士已 证实该消息。业内普遍认为，上游硅料报价大幅上调(主流新单报价超6.5万元/吨)是本次涨价的核心驱 动力。 根据行业咨询机构InfoLink的数据，本周各型号硅片均价涨幅在3.3%—9.8%之间。该机构指出，在多数 硅片企业预期价格仍有进一步上调空间的情况下，现阶段发货意愿明显偏低，市场普遍采取控货策略。 整体而言，在自律议题持续延伸的情况下，短期内硅片价格不排除维持偏强走势。InfoLink数据暂未反 映12月25日的最新调价情况。 此外，多晶硅作为硅片生产的核心原材料，其价格走向直接决定着硅片的生产成本。数据显示，当前多 数多晶硅企业已将新单报价上调至6.5万元/吨以上，较此前实际成交价涨幅超20%，尽管市场暂呈"有价 无市"的僵持状态，但硅料企业的挺价意愿极为强烈。从成本结构来看，硅料在硅片生产成本中的占比 高达48%，是影响硅片定价的最关键因素，上游原料价格的大幅波动直接牵动硅片企业的盈利空间 ...